My perspective is that when buying direct, resale prices matter. There are reasons to buy direct (blue card, access to new resorts, etc) and different people place different value on those. But if one were to do it, it'd try to minimize the delta between direct and resale i.e., minimize the immediate capital loss you incur on paper by buying direct. Very few people actually keep these contracts for 40-50 years even if they think they might upfront, and if you know about the resale market when you buy direct, don't ignore that.
Regarding VDH, nobody knows where resale prices will be in 3-4 years and if it will follow or buck the Riviera trend. But if you are already steering away from VDH direct and want to use other direct points to stay there (with availability risk), then I'd still look at VGF direct for a 150 point package to give you that option - direct and resale prices at that resort are basically the same currently. There is a reasonable chance that if you sell the VGF contract in 15-20 years you will get a lot of what you paid back (like BCV and BWV long-time owners are now laughing all the way to the bank) whereas you lose close to 50% on Aulani direct on "Day 7", once your right to rescind expires in Hawaii. With Aulani being a resort you use that has decent availability at 7 months, you can also potentially use VGF there as well.
For the rest of what you need at Aulani, I'd actually look for a resale subsidized contract. They are not easy to find, especially if looking just for 150 points and a specific use year to go with it. It will cost $30-$40 more than resale unsubsidized (~$130ish), but you will save 25% on annual dues annually, and you will still pay ~$45/point less than the direct price with incentives you cited.
Obviously, my proposal of buying 300-350 points (150 VGF and 150-200 Aulani subsidized resale) will cost you more than 150 Aulani direct so it's also potentially a budget issue, not just a preference issue. But with current dues of $7.33 at VGF and $6.87 on Aulani subsidized, those are pretty economical points to hold.