Is TouringPlans reliable for DLR?

[warrenz1963]

We will be at the parks three full days, Wed Dec 14 - Fri Dec 16. TouringPlans sets the crowd level for these days at 3!! Is this reliable information? It seems awfully low for days so close to Christmas.

 

[LeiaOfAlderaan]

I haven’t checked their predictions lately, but in the before times they were very off, usually underestimating crowds. There was a time when they were accurate but that was long ago.

If I were you I would go into the actual stats day by day (in detail, not the overview) and compare what they predicted against what crowds ended up being to see if they’ve been accurate at all lately. Full disclosure I haven’t looked at their site since early 2020.

But regardless I highly doubt crowds will be a 3 at any time during December.

 

[serene56]

I have had touring plans since 2008 I put them together and stalk wait times. The touring plans are so far off base right now. My plans have me in the parks until 4pm but the posted wait times has me done at 1:30 I see wait times for Matterhorn on my plans at 85 min but the posted is only 25 (made me wonder how the posted times really are. ) I did this numerous days in a row.

 

[serene56]

I have had touring plans since 2008 I put them together and stalk wait times. The touring plans are so far off base right now. My plans have me in the parks until 4pm but the posted wait times has me done at 1:30 I see wait times for Matterhorn on my plans at 85 min but the posted is only 25 (made me wonder how the posted times really are. ) I did this numerous days in a row.

also look at yesterday: so you see they are really off base with crowd levels Maybe look at 2019 your dates

Across All Disneyland Theme Parks​

• Crowd Level:
  

  What we predicted:	6 out of 10
  What we saw:	10 out of 10

 

[serene56]

and this is Dec 2019

Saturday, December 14, 2019​

Mostly Cloudy Throughout The Day. High: 64°F • Low: 56°F

Across All Disneyland Theme Parks​

• Crowd Level:
  

  What we predicted:	7 out of 10
  What we saw:	7 out of 10

 

[jason417]

Keep in mind that their crowd levels are relative to average min and max crowds. In other words, a crowd level 1 means the lowest crowd level Disneyland sees in a year. It doesn't mean the place is dead. Here's some helpful data from their site that explains how crowd levels compare:

SPACE MOUNTAIN WAIT TIMES (Daily Average)
Level 1 = less than 24 mins
Level 2 = 24-29 mins
Level 3 = 29-34 mins
Level 4 = 34-38 mins
Level 5 = 38-43 mins
Level 6 = 43-47 mins
Level 7 = 47-50 mins
Level 8 = 50-54 mins
Level 9 = 54-57 mins
Level 10 = more than 57 mins

So you can see a crowd level 4 isn't twice as busy as a 2. On their scale, a crowd level 9 is actually about twice as busy as a 2. In my experience, when they predict a crowd level of 1 through 3, it likely means you're going to see manageable crowds. An 8 through 10 means you need to manage your expectations. Any predictions between those extremes means anything could happen.

 

[starlite_]

I don't think any crow predicter is accurate anymore.

 

[warrenz1963]

Thank you all for your information, I really appreciate it!

 

[Huskerpaul]

The park reservation system has thrown park crowd predictions out the window.

 

[FeistyDisneyMom]

Part of the issue with crowd predictors is that even technically lower crowds may feel as congested/busy as higher numbers because they can scale staff based on reservations. In the past, the sweet spot were days that DLR had thought would be busy and staffed up, but ended up not as many people showed up. That is no longer a possible scenario, so it feels a bit more crowded all the time as staffing levels are always going to correspond to reservations.

 

[V.I.N.CENT.]

I think they are still valuable for very general guidance.

 

[PirateBrigade]

I don't think it's valuable anymore. Pre-2020, DLR had a very predictable rhythm that the service was able to analyze and use. Ever since the park capacity, reservation system, and staffing quality/levels have been fluctuating, as well as all of the recent revenge travel/travel demand, it's too much to account for algorithmically.

I had renewed it another year in hopes that it would get better, but I found myself often the only person submitting data on the Lines app, and it was always grossly wrong in its hour-by-hour prediction (whereas before, it was pretty deadly accurate).

 

[DLRExpert]

Always expect it to be busy.
If it is not then it is a plus.

 

[DLgal]

I don't think it's valuable anymore. Pre-2020, DLR had a very predictable rhythm that the service was able to analyze and use. Ever since the park capacity, reservation system, and staffing quality/levels have been fluctuating, as well as all of the recent revenge travel/travel demand, it's too much to account for algorithmically.

I had renewed it another year in hopes that it would get better, but I found myself often the only person submitting data on the Lines app, and it was always grossly wrong in its hour-by-hour prediction (whereas before, it was pretty deadly accurate).

Same. I think I'm on my last renewal year also. The Lines app could not be more inaccurate. It's comical how bad it is, even down to saying a ride is open when it's not. Even the "actual" wait times don't line up with the Disneyland App. I don't know how any of the data is obtained but it feels like wild guessing at this point.