Jan 2018 wait times longer than Summer 2017: Disney reduced ride capacity

[whiporee]

2. Len might not be 100% right but he has data to back his claims up. Obviously something has changed over the past few years. Attendance has risen overall but there was a bit of a dip last year.

I don't want to argue all the points again, but I do want to ask if you listened to the entire interview or the snipet? Because one thing left out of the snipet was the number -- Len thought capacity had been reduced five percent overall (he had anecdotal evidence of bigger reductions on some rides, but his overall number was five). Maybe I'm an apologist, but I don't think reducing five percent from your busy days to your not busy days is that big of a shift. It is one -- I'll admit that -- but I don't think it's huge.

I also think the rest of the statements made were hyperbole without evidence. The basic facts are that 1) WDW can charge what they and 2) any price hike is going to be met with fire and fury from the interwebs. They don't need to justify their price hikes to anyone, because it won't matter. People will be mad regardless, and them saying January's now a busy time won't make anyone who's mad any less mad. I think the more realistic explanation is that WDW wants to reduce the wear and tear on the machines when they can. That doesn't make it any better for people waiting in line, but the whole thing is a lot less nefarious than it appears.

 

[rteetz]

I don't want to argue all the points again, but I do want to ask if you listened to the entire interview or the snipet? Because one thing left out of the snipet was the number -- Len thought capacity had been reduced five percent overall (he had anecdotal evidence of bigger reductions on some rides, but his overall number was five). Maybe I'm an apologist, but I don't think reducing five percent from your busy days to your not busy days is that big of a shift. It is one -- I'll admit that -- but I don't think it's huge.

I also think the rest of the statements made were hyperbole without evidence. The basic facts are that 1) WDW can charge what they and 2) any price hike is going to be met with fire and fury from the interwebs. They don't need to justify their price hikes to anyone, because it won't matter. People will be mad regardless, and them saying January's now a busy time won't make anyone who's mad any less mad. I think the more realistic explanation is that WDW wants to reduce the wear and tear on the machines when they can. That doesn't make it any better for people waiting in line, but the whole thing is a lot less nefarious than it appears.

I listened to both and listen to several shows Len has been on. 5% does make a difference when it come to Disney and obviously its being noticed.

What does this have to do with justifying price hikes? We were discussing park and ride capacity. Of course Disney will continue to raise prices unless we see a serious recession or depression again. People complain on the internet no matter what happens.

I don't understand the point you are trying to make with being mad or less mad. This conversation has been about crowds and why crowds seem to have risen even though overall attendance numbers are not way up. Historically January and February have been less crowded times.

In my own observations I have been in January for Marathon Weekend 4 years in a row now. Over those four years the first two were pretty reasonable and not very crowded. The last two years (2017-2018) have been a different story. I attest that to a few things though. Holidays and Marathon Weekend lining up. Many schools the last two years have been off still during the time Marathon Weekend falls. That likely is the biggest reason. Next year Marathon Weekend moves back a week due to the holidays so we will see if there is a change. If not Len could really be onto something and I believe he is. If you have been following Disney the past 3-4 years they have added things but also are often looking to cut things whether it be dining options, meet and greets, etc. So cutting ride capacity falls in line with that and Disney wanting to save on costs.

 

[jenniferhouston2]

I don't want to argue all the points again, but I do want to ask if you listened to the entire interview or the snipet? Because one thing left out of the snipet was the number

Whiporee,

I know this thread already grown long. But, did you see Len Testa's post in this thread (post number 48) ? Len gives further specific data about the changes in capacity. See the pertinent quote below:

We didn't arrive at a cause of reduced capacity until the first week of February, when we started counting riders. View the numbers below with some skepticism. Also, we focused on headliners with high capacity, so changes at attractions like Mad Tea Party wouldn't be picked up through rider counts.

Seven Dwarfs Mine Train Average Riders/Hour After 2/21: 1,443 Before 2/21: 1,103 (-24%)
Big Thunder (WDW) After 2/21: 1,570 Before: 1,232 (-22%)
Buzz Lightyear (WDW) After 2/21: 1,813 Before: 1,351 (-25%)
Space Mountain (WDW) After 2/21: 1,620 Before: 1,443 (-11%)

Unless you contend that Len is making this up, I do not see why we are arguing about the FACT of changed rides capacity. And the fact that it was much greater than 5%! The reasons and motivations of Disney are certainly up for debate, but not the fact that it exists

 

[whiporee]

What does this have to do with justifying price hikes? We were discussing park and ride capacity. Of course Disney will continue to raise prices unless we see a serious recession or depression again. People complain on the internet no matter what happens.

I was discussing the podcast, which was what the thread was started about. Sorry for the misdirection.

Unless you contend that Len is making this up, I do not see why we are arguing about the FACT of changed rides capacity. And the fact that it was much greater than 5%! The reasons and motivations of Disney are certainly up for debate, but not the fact that it exists

I was quoting what he said in the podcast and the interview. I thought those were fair game for the conversation. I'll shut up now.

 

[rteetz]

I was discussing the podcast, which was what the thread was started about. Sorry for the misdirection.

I will say Disney certainly has tried to use attendance/crowds to justify price hikes. I just feel the more interesting discussion here is about the high possibility that Disney is cutting ride capacity for this. Disney's and even Touring Plans operations are fascinating to look at in depth.

 

[jenniferhouston2]

I was quoting what he said in the podcast and the interview

I know you were--I was just making sure you had also seen Lens PP in this thread---as it contained more detail and facts

Please don't shut up!! I enjoy reading all viewpoints on this subject, which I believe is very important to whether we continue to be a "regular" at WDW or take our hard earned money elsewhere

 

[whiporee]

I will say Disney certainly has tried to use attendance/crowds to justify price hikes. I just feel the more interesting discussion here is about the high possibility that Disney is cutting ride capacity for this. Disney's and even Touring Plans operations are fascinating to look at in depth.

I've never actually heard or read WDW doing that -- I think it would be a PR nightmare if they came out and said it. But I don't disagree they do it; I've just never heard them say it. I could be wrong.

As for the rest of it -- remember that Len said his team looked into this because, frankly, they were wrong in January and this board was full of complaints about them being wrong. This and other boards like it board is a large marketing tool for them, I would assume -- and if not marketing, certainly a place where reputations are checked and investigated. They went into the research trying to find out what happened and why, and a lot of this is to justify their errors. While I don't doubt the veracity of what he's saying, I do think it's reasonable to point out that there is a bit of business-protecting spin to his explanations ie, it wasn't TP that was wrong as much as it was WDW being dirty.

It's also important to point out that they only recorded the issue during the week. Friday through Monday, everything was running at what they would consider capacity. It was the midweek times -- the times that could justify a projected drop in attendance -- that this 5 percent drop in capacity was noted. There are plenty of non-nefarious explanations for that, ones that both he and his interviewer explained. It's also worth pointing out that we don't know the methodology that was used, what times of day were checked, whether they were consistent, how many hours were monitored, things like that. He's not required to justify his numbers to us any more than WDW is required to justify their actions, but I'm pointing out we don't know them, either. Was it a four-week sample, or was it a day? Did he compare at the same time every day? I'm not doubting his numbers or their veracity, but when the results are being spouted as gospel, it's worth investigating how those results were derived.

I'm not trying to bash TP or Len, and I'm not trying to apologize for Disney. I'm just saying that a lot of assumptions have been made here that may or may not be true, but they are being spouted as fact. And according to Len -- in support of his own research -- the facts are this: the reduction is occurring during the mid week, and accounts for a 5 percent drop in overall capacity.

 

[Iowamomof4]

I've never actually heard or read WDW doing that -- I think it would be a PR nightmare if they came out and said it. But I don't disagree they do it; I've just never heard them say it. I could be wrong.

As for the rest of it -- remember that Len said his team looked into this because, frankly, they were wrong in January and this board was full of complaints about them being wrong. This and other boards like it board is a large marketing tool for them, I would assume -- and if not marketing, certainly a place where reputations are checked and investigated. They went into the research trying to find out what happened and why, and a lot of this is to justify their errors. While I don't doubt the veracity of what he's saying, I do think it's reasonable to point out that there is a bit of business-protecting spin to his explanations ie, it wasn't TP that was wrong as much as it was WDW being dirty.

It's also important to point out that they only recorded the issue during the week. Friday through Monday, everything was running at what they would consider capacity. It was the midweek times -- the times that could justify a projected drop in attendance -- that this 5 percent drop in capacity was noted. There are plenty of non-nefarious explanations for that, ones that both he and his interviewer explained. It's also worth pointing out that we don't know the methodology that was used, what times of day were checked, whether they were consistent, how many hours were monitored, things like that. He's not required to justify his numbers to us any more than WDW is required to justify their actions, but I'm pointing out we don't know them, either. Was it a four-week sample, or was it a day? Did he compare at the same time every day? I'm not doubting his numbers or their veracity, but when the results are being spouted as gospel, it's worth investigating how those results were derived.

I'm not trying to bash TP or Len, and I'm not trying to apologize for Disney. I'm just saying that a lot of assumptions have been made here that may or may not be true, but they are being spouted as fact. And according to Len -- in support of his own research -- the facts are this: the reduction is occurring during the mid week, and accounts for a 5 percent drop in overall capacity.

Disney (Iger) has most certainly said they are raising prices to help control crowds. They may call it "pricing strategies" or other more PR-friendly terms, but they are trying to disperse crowds away from the traditionally crowded times (summer, holidays, etc...) and make things more even year-round.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

Disney (Iger) has most certainly said they are raising prices to help control crowds. They may call it "pricing strategies" or other more PR-friendly terms, but they are trying to disperse crowds away from the traditionally crowded times (summer, holidays, etc...) and make things more even year-round.

Iger actually said that Tiered pricing is good for the consumer in that interview. So at least they’re being transparent about that part of it, if trying to use ridiculous PR spin.

 

[whiporee]

Disney (Iger) has most certainly said they are raising prices to help control crowds. They may call it "pricing strategies" or other more PR-friendly terms, but they are trying to disperse crowds away from the traditionally crowded times (summer, holidays, etc...) and make things more even year-round.

But if they're increasing wait times to make January look busier and therefore justify higher pricing, how is that spreading the year around? It's just raising prices.

 

[rteetz]

I've never actually heard or read WDW doing that -- I think it would be a PR nightmare if they came out and said it. But I don't disagree they do it; I've just never heard them say it. I could be wrong.

As for the rest of it -- remember that Len said his team looked into this because, frankly, they were wrong in January and this board was full of complaints about them being wrong. This and other boards like it board is a large marketing tool for them, I would assume -- and if not marketing, certainly a place where reputations are checked and investigated. They went into the research trying to find out what happened and why, and a lot of this is to justify their errors. While I don't doubt the veracity of what he's saying, I do think it's reasonable to point out that there is a bit of business-protecting spin to his explanations ie, it wasn't TP that was wrong as much as it was WDW being dirty.

It's also important to point out that they only recorded the issue during the week. Friday through Monday, everything was running at what they would consider capacity. It was the midweek times -- the times that could justify a projected drop in attendance -- that this 5 percent drop in capacity was noted. There are plenty of non-nefarious explanations for that, ones that both he and his interviewer explained. It's also worth pointing out that we don't know the methodology that was used, what times of day were checked, whether they were consistent, how many hours were monitored, things like that. He's not required to justify his numbers to us any more than WDW is required to justify their actions, but I'm pointing out we don't know them, either. Was it a four-week sample, or was it a day? Did he compare at the same time every day? I'm not doubting his numbers or their veracity, but when the results are being spouted as gospel, it's worth investigating how those results were derived.

I'm not trying to bash TP or Len, and I'm not trying to apologize for Disney. I'm just saying that a lot of assumptions have been made here that may or may not be true, but they are being spouted as fact. And according to Len -- in support of his own research -- the facts are this: the reduction is occurring during the mid week, and accounts for a 5 percent drop in overall capacity.

Iger himself has said it.

I don’t buy that Len came out and said this because he was losing business. Len has said he’s out $1 million into Touring Plans. They use a ton of data in their calendars and plans. Other sites don’t do that.

We will never know officially whether Disney is purposely cutting capacity because Disney is never going to say one way or the other. We can only go off data like Len and people like him give us.

Disney has done these things in the past so I would not be surprised if they are doing it now. It’s about making the most money and the bottom line for Disney and will be for the foreseeable future.

We are here discussing the likely possibility of this happening with facts and yes assumptions play a role but the data is there too. In the end Disney inflating wait times sucks for all of us and so does higher crowds but there isn’t a lot we can other than plan or don’t go.

 

[rteetz]

But if they're increasing wait times to make January look busier and therefore justify higher pricing, how is that spreading the year around? It's just raising prices.

Disney wants us to believe the are spreading out crowds to justify the higher costs.

 

[hereforthechurros]

For the average guest who doesn't know the DIS or Touring Plans exist, and doesn't really know how FP works and how you can refresh, 10 seems about right.

Obviously, we're not the average guest and we'd be upset if we only had 10 experiences.


Thankfully my wait was only 15 minutes posted and about that actual. 35 is wayyy too much for that ride.

I’ve never heard the 10 attraction threshold (so to speak) so this is very interesting to me. Our very first trip in 2017 we did 2 days at MK averaging 12-15 attractions a day and we didn’t stay until close either night. Our second trip in Feb. 2018 we stayed until close at almost every park and averaged 7 attractions a day because the crowds were fairly suffocating and FPs were very lean.

Totally willing to accept that things can vary that much day to day, week to week, month to month but I do think WDW owes something to the visitor to at least give them an idea of crowds so they can book accordingly. Not exact #s, but a range. I would gladly pay more to ensure a slower time if it was an option.

 

[rteetz]

I’ve never heard the 10 attraction threshold (so to speak) so this is very interesting to me. Our very first trip in 2017 we did 2 days at MK averaging 12-15 attractions a day and we didn’t stay until close either night. Our second trip in Feb. 2018 we stayed until close at almost every park and averaged 7 attractions a day because the crowds were fairly suffocating and FPs were very lean.

Totally willing to accept that things can vary that much day to day, week to week, month to month but I do think WDW owes something to the visitor to at least give them an idea of crowds so they can book accordingly. Not exact #s, but a range. I would gladly pay more to ensure a slower time if it was an option.

It’s not even 10 attractions it’s 10 experiences so that includes meet and greets and other events.

 

[Getoutyall]

I’ve never heard the 10 attraction threshold (so to speak) so this is very interesting to me. Our very first trip in 2017 we did 2 days at MK averaging 12-15 attractions a day and we didn’t stay until close either night. Our second trip in Feb. 2018 we stayed until close at almost every park and averaged 7 attractions a day because the crowds were fairly suffocating and FPs were very lean.

Totally willing to accept that things can vary that much day to day, week to week, month to month but I do think WDW owes something to the visitor to at least give them an idea of crowds so they can book accordingly. Not exact #s, but a range. I would gladly pay more to ensure a slower time if it was an option.

I also went in feb 2018 and did 7 experiences our first magic kingdom day from 9am-4pm and 4 of those were prescheduled (three fast passes and pirates league). through all my research I never heard that Disney had free wifi so at the park I couldn't get at the app to load so no extra fast passes and no mobile ordering. Quick service lines were 30 min long at 3pm with no tables available. so we did our last fastpass and had to leave to find something to eat. It was not a fun day. We did average about 10 experiences our other days there and those days did feel more "successful".

 

[rteetz]

through all my research I never heard that Disney had free wifi so at the park I couldn't get at the app to load so no extra fast passes and no mobile ordering.

That's interesting. I always check in public places if I am not sure. I'll just go into my wifi settings and see if there is a major public network.

 

[mom2rtk]

Iger himself has said it.

I don’t buy that Len came out and said this because he was losing business. Len has said he’s out $1 million into Touring Plans. They use a ton of data in their calendars and plans. Other sites don’t do that.

We will never know officially whether Disney is purposely cutting capacity because Disney is never going to say one way or the other. We can only go off data like Len and people like him give us.

Disney has done these things in the past so I would not be surprised if they are doing it now. It’s about making the most money and the bottom line for Disney and will be for the foreseeable future.

We are here discussing the likely possibility of this happening with facts and yes assumptions play a role but the data is there too. In the end Disney inflating wait times sucks for all of us and so does higher crowds but there isn’t a lot we can other than plan or don’t go.

Iger has also said they are running 24% margins in the parks and looking to push it higher. After attaining a number high enough to tout to the shareholders, what are you going to do to push it higher? After you've cut all the easy stuff?

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

Iger has also said they are running 24% margins in the parks and looking to push it higher. After attaining a number high enough to tout to the shareholders, what are you going to do to push it higher? After you've cut all the easy stuff?

The one doozy that comes instantly to mind is monetize FP now that us FP addicts are hooked. Something much bigger than the current CL test. But I’m just speculating wildly on that. It could also cause a mutiny if done poorly.

 

[amylevan]

The one doozy that comes instantly to mind is monetize FP now that us FP addicts are hooked. Something much bigger than the current CL test. But I’m just speculating wildly on that. It could also cause a mutiny if done poorly.

I often see people theorizing that FP will eventually be monetized somehow, but I do think they'd have to be careful with that. FP has been free since 1999 - that's almost 20 years - not an easy change to explain away.

 

[jenniferhouston2]

I often see people theorizing that FP will eventually be monetized somehow, but I do think they'd have to be careful with that. FP has been free since 1999 - that's almost 20 years - not an easy change to explain away.

Hold my beer!

Here is my attempt (DISCLAIMER THIS IS TOTAL FICTION!! MY ATTEMPT AT A LITTLE SATIRE WITH SOME TRUTH)


"Welcome to DISNEY'S ULTIMATE FASTPASS!!! The newest and best version of Fastpass! In response to our guest's feedback, Disney proudly offers the Ultimate Fastpass to allow you to enjoy your favorite attractions in a fraction of the time, saving you time and your hard earned vacation dollar!!!

The Ultimate Fastpass is available for all Disney Attractions, based on a tiered system. Two Tier One Fastpasses will available to each guest per day!

Tier One Fastpasses include Hall of Presidents, Enchanted Tiki Room, Mickey's Philharmagic, Carousel, Tom Sawyer Island, Barnstormer, Teacups, Swiss Family Robinson House, and Dumbo.

Tier Two Fastpasses will be available for the magical price of $5 per Fastpass. Tier Two Fastpasses include Winnie the Pooh, Tomorrowland Speedway, Buzz Lightyear, Jungle Cruise, Haunted Mansion, Pirates of the Carribbean, and Its a Small World,

Tier Three Fastpasses will be available for the magical price of $10 per Fastpass. Tier Three Fastpasses include Space Mountain, Seven Dwarves Mine Train, Peter Pan, Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, and Splash Mountain.

Of course, our standby lines for all attractions will always remain complimentary to all guests. We hope you are excited as we are to provide you more options to fully enjoy Disney.

Have a Magical Day!!"