Jan 2018 wait times longer than Summer 2017: Disney reduced ride capacity

[Happy2BGoofy]

It would be very interesting how Disney goes about instituting the new tiered park tickets towards the end of the year. As Iger said they are trying to balance the crows levels throughout the year. It is obvious that they are trying to balance things out for their benefit and not the benefit of their guests. I get that they are a corporation and therefore they are to make money but at what cost?

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

I often see people theorizing that FP will eventually be monetized somehow, but I do think they'd have to be careful with that. FP has been free since 1999 - that's almost 20 years - not an easy change to explain away.

I’m sure Iger curses Eisner every day for letting that little misstep get enshrined. How is he going to get to 50% profit when FPs are included?

But seriously I think it’s coming in some form. They’re just looking for the right way to do it. I expect more tests like the CL one going on now.

 

[10CJ]

I was discussing fastpasses with a a coworker. Her MIL is a CM so coworker basically followed MILs lead. I don't think they used any FPs and coworker did not know they were free.

I am curious to see how capacity is over Spring Break. Given the prices charged for rooms over that period of time and the predicted crowds I would hope they run rides closer to full capacity.

 

[lentesta]

The "10 attractions per day" number comes from this NY Times article on Disney park ops, in which Disney participated. That was from late 2010, prior to MDE/FP+. The article mentions 'rides' but I'm not sure if the Times differentiates between rides, shows, character greetings, and the like. I'd assume they didn't, because that's too nuanced a point for a wide audience and short article. "10 rides" probably means "10 experiences". I could be convinced that number is 11 now, because the number of FPs used per guest is up by approximately 1 since FP+.

On Feb 16 we implemented a 5% capacity reduction assumption in our models, across all attractions. Here's the accuracy of the calendar before and after that, for 2018:

• Magic Kingdom +/- Error Before 2/16: 1.89 After: 0.81
• Epcot Before: 1.63 After: 0.68
• DHS Before: 1.15 After: 1.18
• AK Before: 2.74 After: 1.00

It's only been 3 weeks since then and there could be other explanations for this better performance (seasonality, random luck, etc.).

For what it's worth, +/- 1.0 is our goal with the calendar over the course of 365 days. I don't think Disney's posted wait times are accurate enough to model anything with more precision than that 1.0.

I mentioned earlier that the economy and the hurricane contributed to January's and February's crowds. We did not implement a 5% reduction at Universal. Here are those before/after 2/16 numbers, which show Orlando in general was more crowded than expected:

• Universal Studios Florida Before: 1.89 After: 1.18
• Islands of Adventure Before: 1.54 After: 0.77

We're still looking at DLR.

 

[whiporee]

The "10 attractions per day" number comes from this NY Times article on Disney park ops, in which Disney participated. That was from late 2010, prior to MDE/FP+. The article mentions 'rides' but I'm not sure if the Times differentiates between rides, shows, character greetings, and the like. I'd assume they didn't, because that's too nuanced a point for a wide audience and short article. "10 rides" probably means "10 experiences". I could be convinced that number is 11 now, because the number of FPs used per guest is up by approximately 1 since FP+.

On Feb 16 we implemented a 5% capacity reduction assumption in our models, across all attractions. Here's the accuracy of the calendar before and after that, for 2018:

• Magic Kingdom +/- Error Before 2/16: 1.89 After: 0.81
• Epcot Before: 1.63 After: 0.68
• DHS Before: 1.15 After: 1.18
• AK Before: 2.74 After: 1.00

It's only been 3 weeks since then and there could be other explanations for this better performance (seasonality, random luck, etc.).

For what it's worth, +/- 1.0 is our goal with the calendar over the course of 365 days. I don't think Disney's posted wait times are accurate enough to model anything with more precision than that 1.0.

I mentioned earlier that the economy and the hurricane contributed to January's and February's crowds. We did not implement a 5% reduction at Universal. Here are those before/after 2/16 numbers, which show Orlando in general was more crowded than expected:

• Universal Studios Florida Before: 1.89 After: 1.18
• Islands of Adventure Before: 1.54 After: 0.77

We're still looking at DLR.

Len, thanks for in the information. It's very generous of you to share proprietary knowledge with us.

Am I right in remembering that you've only seen the capacity decrease Tues-Thursday?

 

[lentesta]

Len, thanks for in the information. It's very generous of you to share proprietary knowledge with us.

Am I right in remembering that you've only seen the capacity decrease Tues-Thursday?

We were off Monday through Thursday substantially more than Friday through Sunday. I think I said on the podcast that we were idiots, but only on weekdays.

 

[JenniferYoung44]

I don’t think it’s FP+. I think it’s the whole concept of FP, not just the reservation system.

I hate to seem this old, but when I was growing up in Orlando, 30-45 minute waits were the norm for almost everything decent. 90 at Space and Pirates was what you expected. That’s actually the case with most amusement parks I’ve been to. There were slower times during the year -- the weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas, especially -- but there were always lines. Unless it was very early or very late, there were lines. And that was before 3/4s of the 30,000 hotel rooms came along. But as I kid I waited for Snow White and I waited for MR. Toads and I waited or 20,000 Leagues and. None of those rides were walk ons -- I can remember very few walk-ons at all in my childhood there. There's a reason the queue lines are so long.

But with the advent of FP, the idea of waiting became abhorrent, so now what was once considered a part of being at an amusement park is now thought of abnormal and, so some on this thread, abusive. We are a very impatient society these days (myself included) so any significant wait for anything feels like quite the imposition. But I can promise you the standby lines for WDW headliners aren't any worse than standby lines for headliners at most amusement parks around the country. It always sucks to be in one, but I've been in plenty of hour-long lines at Six Flags or at Sea World and Universal or at the local water park.

While I've no way of knowing this I think WDW has an idea that 30-45 minutes is fine for a standby line, regardless of when you come (unless it's a ticketed, controlled event). And if you come during a "slow" time then it's still going to be the same wait -- I don't think WDW has any obligation to make anyone's wait shorter than what they as a company have decided is reasonable. If you disagree with their choice, that's understandable. But I think it's there choice to make, just like it's a consumer's choice to decide where to spend their money. But I don't think you'll find many amusement parks that can consistently show a shorter wait time for headliners.

I also want to point out that when considering wait times, it might be fair to also consider the people in the FP line. If a third of the people are using FP, and they're through the line in 10 minutes, and two thirds are in the standby line at 45, then the average wait time for all visitors is 33 minutes. it doesn't make the standby one any shorter, but if you're damning them for perceived actions, then you ought to be fair about it.

The major difference is during these “slow” times the park is open less hours and therefore you can do less and get less out of the park in a day. If rhe wait times are the same all year long why would there be any incentive to go when the park hours are short

 

[FortForever]

I've been going to Disney since December 1971. It has been a large part of my life, even when we lived 1,000 miles away. As much as I hate to see the end of an era, this may be the last year we keep our annual passes and visit.

If I thought these insane wait times were happening naturally, I wouldn't hold it against them. But, I know Disney is creating them intentionally so we have to pay for what used to be free for resort guests. I expect EMH will come to a complete end before it's all said and done.

It's all very sad, but at the end of the day, Disney is a fake world. There is plenty of real world out there that I'm more than ready to experience. More cruises and traveling to new places will be in our future. A day at the beach is much more relaxing than a day at Disney anyway.

 

[Princess_Lisa]

I am amazed every trip how many people don't know or don't utilize FP. I know many people think you have to pay extra for it too.

Back when FastPass was first introduced (Paper FP days), I remember asking someone about this new thing and they responded "That costs extra." For years, I just accepted this as fact. Not that it made much difference as I didn't go to Disney during that time. Once I got my AP I found out I could make FastPasses for FREE.

 

[Princess_Lisa]

Hold my beer!

Here is my attempt (DISCLAIMER THIS IS TOTAL FICTION!! MY ATTEMPT AT A LITTLE SATIRE WITH SOME TRUTH)


"Welcome to DISNEY'S ULTIMATE FASTPASS!!! The newest and best version of Fastpass! In response to our guest's feedback, Disney proudly offers the Ultimate Fastpass to allow you to enjoy your favorite attractions in a fraction of the time, saving you time and your hard earned vacation dollar!!!

The Ultimate Fastpass is available for all Disney Attractions, based on a tiered system. Two Tier One Fastpasses will available to each guest per day!

Tier One Fastpasses include Hall of Presidents, Enchanted Tiki Room, Mickey's Philharmagic, Carousel, Tom Sawyer Island, Barnstormer, Teacups, Swiss Family Robinson House, and Dumbo.

Tier Two Fastpasses will be available for the magical price of $5 per Fastpass. Tier Two Fastpasses include Winnie the Pooh, Tomorrowland Speedway, Buzz Lightyear, Jungle Cruise, Haunted Mansion, Pirates of the Carribbean, and Its a Small World,

Tier Three Fastpasses will be available for the magical price of $10 per Fastpass. Tier Three Fastpasses include Space Mountain, Seven Dwarves Mine Train, Peter Pan, Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, and Splash Mountain.

Of course, our standby lines for all attractions will always remain complimentary to all guests. We hope you are excited as we are to provide you more options to fully enjoy Disney.

Have a Magical Day!!"

They could sell the FastPasses in little coupon books labelled A, B, C, D, and E

 

[FortForever]

They could sell the FastPasses in little coupon books labelled A, B, C, D, and E

 

[mom2rtk]

They could sell the FastPasses in little coupon books labelled A, B, C, D, and E

Only if they ditch the "all access" pricing first.

 

[tlmadden73]

If I thought these insane wait times were happening naturally, I wouldn't hold it against them. But, I know Disney is creating them intentionally so we have to pay for what used to be free for resort guests. I expect EMH will come to a complete end before it's all said and done.

The fact remains that things like Fast Passes and EMH were only created to DRAW people to Disney. People came .. and continue coming (in droves) and will continue to come even more with the announcement of all these new attractions.

People are EASILY paying for these Early Morning Magic and After Hours experiences, so why have a separate offering for resort guests 'for free'?

I don't know if Disney would be nefarious enough to purposely inflate wait times, but it definitely is to their advantage to not "try hard" to keep wait times down especially during these "slow" months so people are drawn to all the things that reduce wait times (like events, parties, tours, Club level, etc.)

I definitely feel like you and that the writing is on the wall that EMH is going away. I don't even think they will replace it with anything. Why would they with how successful these morning/night events are. What they may do is replace it with a paid FP perk. (Like - stay in a Disney resort and get a discounted rate for the morning/night events .. or get the ability to PAY for a 4th Fast pass per day (just how people pay extra for hopper passes), etc. etc.).

 

[FortForever]

I don't know if Disney would be nefarious enough to purposely inflate wait times, but it definitely is to their advantage to not "try hard" to keep wait times down especially during these "slow" months so people are drawn to all the things that reduce wait times (like events, parties, tours, Club level, etc.)

These are kind of the same thing. Basically like telling a lie vs withholding the truth.

 

[mshanson3121]

These are kind of the same thing. Basically like telling a lie vs withholding the truth.

I'm also not impressed with anything they have done lately. Mine Train, with all it's hype, is honestly mediocre. Splash Mountain is the closest comparison and knocks Mine Train out of the park.

They have all but destroyed Soarin' with the new film and inability to watch properly from the seats on the end. I always request a middle seat, and they accommodate, but never had to do that before.

Don't even get me started on replacing Maelstrom with Frozen. Just because it's cold in the movie doesn't make it, in any way, a part of Norway's history and/or culture. It just doesn't belong there.

Flights of Passage - one of my son's can't even ride it because he has a size 13 foot. Seriously? They couldn't have made the feet inserts open ended to accommodate everyone? He is also pretty squished on Mine Train, it seems none of the newer rides are tall friendly.

Navi River is like, what? 15 seconds long? At least that's what it feels like. Yes, it's beautiful, but not worth waiting for two hours.

The last good ride Disney put in is Toy Story Mania and now they are doing away with the FP line for that. SMH!

And now they have us paying for APs, plus having to pay almost a days admission to actually enjoy the parks for a few hours. No, it's just gotten completely out of hand.

Being a Florida resident, we can get discounts on cruises and I think that's where our future annual pass funds will be going.

Two side questions (not to derail):

1. Are you serious about FoP and shoe size?? My husband wears a 13 or 14 depending on the shoe. He's not overly big (6'2, 220 lbs) just has big feet.

2. Is the removal of FP+ lane for TSMM permanent, or just for the time being for the renos? My understanding was it is only temporary.

 

[Allison]

The last good ride Disney put in is Toy Story Mania and now they are doing away with the FP line for that. SMH!

For informational purposes, that is temporary during a specific phase of construction.

 

[FortForever]

Two side questions (not to derail):

1. Are you serious about FoP and shoe size?? My husband wears a 13 or 14 depending on the shoe. He's not overly big (6'2, 220 lbs) just has big feet.

2. Is the removal of FP+ lane for TSMM permanent, or just for the time being for the renos? My understanding was it is only temporary.

Yes, I'm serious about my son. He may wear a size 15, I am not sure. He is an adult and 6' 8" tall. He is not heavy, it was his leg length or shoe size that prevented him. I can feel the end of the foot slot with my size 9 women's feet, so not sure how your husband's size 13 or 14 fit in there. That would be the equivalent of my feet being 7 sizes larger, and there is just no way.

They "say" the FP removal from Toy Story is temporary. I'm not a believer in that. They have moved the entrance, in the new scenario and I personally believe hoping not to have to put back in an FP line. It's not just during renovations, it will be closed well past the opening of Toy Story Land for sure.

 

[whiporee]

Being a Florida resident, we can get discounts on cruises and I think that's where our future annual pass funds will be going.

Given your strong opinions on the parks, I think that's a GREAT plan.

 

[FortForever]

Given your strong opinions on the parks, I think that's a GREAT plan.

Actually, I love the old stuff at the parks. Just not a fan of the newer stuff and the missing quality and thought that used to be put into everything they did.

Regardless, no need to obnoxious about it. I have no problems with people not sharing my opinions. But, facts are facts about the crowd staging.

EDIT: I see someone deleted their post, making it appear as though I'm talking to myself. My apologizes. Carry on ...

 

[Linkura]

They "say" the FP removal from Toy Story is temporary. I'm not a believer in that. They have moved the entrance, in the new scenario and I personally believe hoping not to have to put back in an FP line. It's not just during renovations, it will be closed well past the opening of Toy Story Land for sure.

Yeah... you are wrong. Sorry.