I don't think anyone ever knows for sure what Disney will do...Our January trip was our first experience with discounts.
We booked at the end of August at value season rack rates. Then, when Disney Club rates for '02 were announced, we switched to those. In October, when a discount code appeared in our paper, we made a reservation through CRO and cancelled the DC reservation. Finally, in December, the AP rates were released, and we had that applied to our existing reservation
. It seemed like a long wait, but part of the fun was the "thrill of the hunt" - it felt so great to get those discounts.
Based on our experience, and advice we received here, I'd suggest booking your resort of choice now, paying the deposit, and then watching for the discounts to be released. When discounts are announced (hopefully), you can call and see if the code can be applied to your reservation.
Sorry this is so long...good luck!