Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[intamin]

Face it, Riviera averaging 42,000 points a month in 2023 is abysmal numbers for a resort marketed as a new resort. Again, you want to argue that resale restrictions don't play a factor, I'll listen to that. You want to argue the resort is selling like they wanted it to? Nope, I don't buy it. Are you really telling me DVC is proud of the fast VGF will likely sell out in 2030, AFTER VGF, VDH, Poly2 and probably Fort Wilderness does?

View attachment 803610

I don't think Disney is happy with the sales at Riviera, I also don't think they're upset about them because they can sell the rooms out for cash. The goal isn't to sell points ASAP, the goal is to get as much money as possible per point while taking into account the cost of holding onto the points themselves. Why would RIV sell out faster than VGF? Even if it opened 3 years later, it has 4 times as many points to sell compared to the recent VGF addition, it has double the amount of point to sell compared to VDH which isn't even a fair comparison because there had been a lot of pent up demand for a new Disneyland DVC addition but even their sales have dropped to 30,000/month. We don't know how long it'll take CFW/Poly 2 to sell out. That being said I don't think the sales are good. I don't think the world is ending either though.

 

[Sandisw]

Content enough = Resigned to

Seriously though - I was surprised that RIV outsold VGF at all, so I charted the data. There were actually a period in the second half of 2022 with RIV outsold VGF for 6 months, though two of those were within a few thousand points of each other. But yes, August - November of last year Riviera outsold VGF, and that was when incentives were such that RIV was running $12-20 less than VGF.

But look where VGF sales went compared to RIV when they did the same type of incentive for VGF. VGF sales in the 150,000 point range!

But most disturbing of all was looking at RIV sales pre VGF. Direct sales historically run about 120K-150K for new resorts. Without VGF in the mix, RIV was mostly squeaking by with 80K or less of sales. And since Jan of this year, the resort can't even sell 50,000 points a month. Even with those incentives last fall, they were pushing 85,000 in a good month.

So yes, Disney has changed the strategy. Riviera is old news, we're going to get VGF sold out in a hurry so when Poly comes on line it won't have competition right next door. And then we'll push Poly and the Fort cabins.

Face it, Riviera averaging 42,000 points a month in 2023 is abysmal numbers for a resort marketed as a new resort. Again, you want to argue that resale restrictions don't play a factor, I'll listen to that. You want to argue the resort is selling like they wanted it to? Nope, I don't buy it. Are you really telling me DVC is proud of the fast VGF will likely sell out in 2030, AFTER VGF, VDH, Poly2 and probably Fort Wilderness does?

View attachment 803610

I never said resale restrctions don’t play a role,,,I am sure they do. But, I don’t agree that they are the sales killer that some think they are and DVDs own moves with incentives proves it to me. Of course, they are not lighting the world on fire. But, VGF had 9 months in the last year that sold less than 60k, and 4 of those were under 50k…yet that doesn’t seem to matter.?

To sell VGF at the pace they did this summer, it had to be competitive against resale, which meant an aggressive discount.

If they had never convereted BPK and stayed with just RIV, I’m confident the RIv numbers would have been higher than they are. If they hadn’t changed the incentives to make VGF less expensive last year, my guess is that RIV and VGF would have continued to sell close to each other. If the pandemic had never hit, or the economy where it is, things would look different.

So, I do believe that DVD is content with the sales of RIV, even under 50k currently, because they are selling a lot of the undeclared inventory for cash and thus, don’t see the rush since money is coming in.

They have had the power to price it differently to get it to move…and yet they have not…

As I said, I believe DVDs model seems to have changed to multiple resorts and that total sales might matter more than one individual resort….and my prediction is that if Poly tower is new, with restrictions, they will be perfectly content with its sales numbers if they are under 100k..outside initially…because my guess is those tower rooms will also be popular with cash guests.

Just no way they are disappointed at all that sales in September exceeded the 200k mark, even with VDH and RIV selling much lower than VGF. Do you really believe they expect VDH, Poly tower and FW to all sell well above the 100k mark regulary when all three, plus RIV are selling?

ETA. I also think that if DVD thought restrictions was a major issue, they would not have added to VDH, and would have reversed them by now….they must have a reason for that decision.

 

[Nabas]

I've wondered for a while if they aren't just relinquishing control of new "deluxe" resorts to DVC.

Lowers risk of attendance dips, faster recoup of costs to develop, buyers pay for maintenance and there are still years with inventory and breakage to sell for cash.

Disney has been slowly killing its Deluxe Resort market.

For example, when the Grand Floridian opened in 1988, it’s top-of-the-line club level theme park room topped out at about $300 per night for Christmas. Converted for inflation, that’s about $800 per night today.

Now that same room is over $2000 per night.

One of the reasons Disney is converting Deluxe Resorts is that they priced themselves out of reach of a lot who would like to stay at Deluxe Resorts.

 

[Jwaire]

One of the reasons Disney is converting Deluxe Resorts is that they priced themselves out of reach of a lot who would like to stay at Deluxe Resorts.

Well, let's be honest. They're only "deluxe" in Disney marketing terms. Deluxe amenities and services haven't been a part of these resorts in years.

Someone who has been to the Grand Floridian recently would be blown away at the level of care and service provided in the 90's.

Disney also made other decisions that harmed the deluxe resorts such as allowing the Four Seasons to build a competing resort at the Eagle Pines golf course just miles from the Magic Kingdom and creating the Golden Oak residential community.

Who did they think the deluxe resorts target audiences were?

You have the Waldorf nearby in Bonnet Creek now too (Not Disney property). The Swan Reserve.

The alternatives keep coming.

 

[tidefan]

Or is Riveria doing very well on the cash side like Alunai historically has, so they just don’t care. Unlike VGF, who was converted to DVC due to the hotel side being soft….

You know, everyone keeps saying that RIV does great on the cash side, but do we actually have evidence of this?

 

[Sandisw]

You know, everyone keeps saying that RIV does great on the cash side, but do we actually have evidence of this?

The rooms are routinely sold out on the cash site And, as someone who stays there a lot and talks to a lot of guests, plenty are cash…we get into the whole DVC conversation while hanging at the pool or bar.

I even know a few people who stay there as cash guests regularly.

So, based on that, reports I have read here and elsewhere by people going to WDW it certainly appears they are selling the rooms out.

 

[GGGT]

"Well, let's be honest. They're only "deluxe" in Disney marketing terms. Deluxe amenities and services haven't been a part of these resorts in years........................"

Exactly. Or maybe ever comparatively speaking when considering true "Deluxe Resorts" elsewhere.

 

[tidefan]

The rooms are routinely sold out on the cash site And, as someone who stays there a lot and talks to a lot of guests, plenty are cash…we get into the whole DVC conversation while hanging at the pool or bar.

I even know a few people who stay there as cash guests regularly.

So, based on that, reports I have read here and elsewhere by people going to WDW it certainly appears they are selling the rooms out.

So, anecdotal evidence.

I've run into a lot of "cash" guests at SSR as well... Look, I'm not saying it can't be true, but I think that only Disney knows that for sure.

 

[Sandisw]

So, anecdotal evidence.

I've run into a lot of "cash" guests at SSR as well... Look, I'm not saying it can't be true, but I think that only Disney knows that for sure.

To add, the Disney website shows how many people book it to! For example, it says it was booked 125 times in the last 24 hours.

But, you asked how one might know and just sharing there are a lot of people who are there who are not DVC and not on a rental.

 

[tidefan]

To add, the Disney website shows how many people book it to! For example, it says it was booked 125 times in the last 24 hours.

But, you asked how one might know and just sharing there are a lot of people who are there who are not DVC and not on a rental.

I get your point, but that could be true of many of the Disney resorts, especially around high demand times, such as NYE.

I will say that this highlights why the system tends to work so well. Since we aren't big RIV fans, it leaves it open for more availability for those who like it. And those that are booking RIV because they like it and not BLT, leave BLT open for me to book even more at 7 months.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Except the sales were starting to do very well prior to Covid and when it was cheaper in 2022 than VGF it outperformed that resort for 4 to 5 months, sometimes by more than 30k !

If restrictions were the sales killer that some beleive, why did that happen?

Why did DVD flip things to make VGF less expensive? And why haven’t they put in more aggressive incentives for RIV?

All of that tells me they are content enough with what has currently happened.

We may not have all of the exact details but I think @Sandisw is ultimately correct—if Disney wasn’t happy with Riviera sales or hotel bookings, they know exactly how to move inventory faster, but they chose to put the fire sale promotion on VGF instead.

My new theory is they will ratchet up VGF further soon as “nearly sold out” and then promote the relative “bargain” of RIV and Poly towers when they go on sale.

 

[Jwaire]

So, anecdotal evidence.

I've run into a lot of "cash" guests at SSR as well... Look, I'm not saying it can't be true, but I think that only Disney knows that for sure.

Practically everything we discuss on these boards is anecdotal evidence unless it's released in a financial statement of some kind, an earnings call or a press release.

 

[BrianLo]

But look where VGF sales went compared to RIV when they did the same type of incentive for VGF. VGF sales in the 150,000 point range!

I think you are really underplaying how low the pricing went on VGF this summer. RIV has never had those sort of incentives. I'm sure people would be interested if it was on a fire-sale as well.

Are you really telling me DVC is proud of the fast VGF will likely sell out in 2030, AFTER VGF, VDH, Poly2 and probably Fort Wilderness does?

I kicked this whole conversation accidentally off by making comments that I think people are underestimating how quickly RIV will actually go, it's been overshadowed by a lot of other product offerings. Now it essentially has a year back to itself.

2030 definitely ranks as ridiculously pessimistic and out of whack with the pace it's currently selling. Pessimistically it's 5 years more, but we also know sales are a bit U shaped and ramp up towards the sell out.

RIV is currently outselling VDH that has a similar stock left... it's going to be well gone before Poly2 and probably Fort Wilderness, I'm not sure why you so strongly feel the opposite.

 

[kneely58]

I think you are really underplaying how low the pricing went on VGF this summer. RIV has never had those sort of incentives. I'm sure people would be interested if it was on a fire-sale as well.

Wasn't RIV only like $6-$7 per point higher during the summer promotions? It also has a 6 year longer term that more than makes up for that...

 

[RichVIII]

Regardless of resort, it is getting more expensive to buy with interest rates continuing to go up.

I just checked a popular DVC loan site and they are now showing 13.9% to 17.9% interest rates with huge down payments.

I think new buyers look at the best price.

 

[Sandisw]

Wasn't RIV only like $6-$7 per point higher during the summer promotions? It also has a 6 year longer term that more than makes up for that...

Yes, it was. But what we saw in 2022, when RIV was less expensive, by a similar amount, thst many new buyers go with the lowest priced resort.

Now, I think the reason VGF sold as well as it did is that seems to have captured many current owners who added on. Lots of people here took advantage of it.

Even without restrictions, VGF is an MK resort and RIV is not and it’s possible that when you could get VGF the price of resale it was just too good to pass up.

My guess is that Poly tower will sell just fine if they make it new and give it restrictions because it is also an MK resort.

 

[Minniemoo15]

I wonder if FW opens first with restrictions so that if PVB 2 opens without them, it lessens the blow for RIV owners.

 

[mamaofsix]

Content enough = Resigned to

Seriously though - I was surprised that RIV outsold VGF at all, so I charted the data. There were actually a period in the second half of 2022 with RIV outsold VGF for 6 months, though two of those were within a few thousand points of each other. But yes, August - November of last year Riviera outsold VGF, and that was when incentives were such that RIV was running $12-20 less than VGF.

But look where VGF sales went compared to RIV when they did the same type of incentive for VGF. VGF sales in the 150,000 point range!

But most disturbing of all was looking at RIV sales pre VGF. Direct sales historically run about 120K-150K for new resorts. Without VGF in the mix, RIV was mostly squeaking by with 80K or less of sales. And since Jan of this year, the resort can't even sell 50,000 points a month. Even with those incentives last fall, they were pushing 85,000 in a good month.

So yes, Disney has changed the strategy. Riviera is old news, we're going to get VGF sold out in a hurry so when Poly comes on line it won't have competition right next door. And then we'll push Poly and the Fort cabins.

Face it, Riviera averaging 42,000 points a month in 2023 is abysmal numbers for a resort marketed as a new resort. Again, you want to argue that resale restrictions don't play a factor, I'll listen to that. You want to argue the resort is selling like they wanted it to? Nope, I don't buy it. Are you really telling me DVC is proud of the fast VGF will likely sell out in 2030, AFTER VGF, VDH, Poly2 and probably Fort Wilderness does?

View attachment 803610

Wow - thanks for charting this! The data doesn't lie. I kept hearing that RIV sold better than VGF when RIV was cheaper, but this tells the real story. It was marginal. VGF sold exponentially better than RIV when the incentives were the reverse. Shows a pretty clear preference.

 

[tom1944]

I wonder if FW opens first with restrictions so that if PVB 2 opens without them, it lessens the blow for RIV owners.

I am not saying they would not do that but to me that is an incoherent strategy.

It undermines the concept of restricted resorts.

 

[Sandisw]

Wow - thanks for charting this! The data doesn't lie. I kept hearing that RIV sold better than VGF when RIV was cheaper, but this tells the real story. It was marginal. VGF sold exponentially better than RIV when the incentives were the reverse. Shows a pretty clear preference.

I don’t think anyone has ever said that when VGF was cheaper it did not do better..

However if restrictions were that huge of a deal that could not be overcome for buyers RIV would have never outpaced VGF at all, let alone some months by over 30 to 40k. since VGF was only about $2k more during those months. Here are actual sales:

Direct Sales
	VGF	RIV	Difference	Total
Jul 2022	74166	82420	-8254
Aug 2022	71924	85286	-13362
Sept 2022	47722	84010	-36288
Oct 2022	46867	85862	-38995
Nov 2022	38146	78655	-40509	-137408
12/1/2022 (VGF less expensive	51811	58839	-7028
Jan 2023	55471	44665	10806
Feb 2023	41549	30905	10644
March 2023	57972	38523	19449
April 2023	57570	42700	14870
May 2023	57680	41472	16208
6/1/2023 MB Begins	75687	40025	35662	100611

So, its just not accurate that when VGF went less expensive...up until the MB program went into play and it could be gotten in the low $160's....that they were selling substantially more than RIV did when it was the least expensive option.

Matter of fact. RIV did by selling an extra 137, 408 K for the last 5 months in 2022 where as VGF only outsold RIV for the first half of 2023 by 100, 611

DVD made VGF less expensive than RIV at the end of 2022 because they wanted it sell faster than it was, and it wasn’t doing great being more expensive than RIV.

Again, DVD hasn’t done anything to show they are not content with the way RIV is selling and obviously they don’t believe restrictions are worth reversing. If they did, they would not have put them on VDH

It why I still think that they will keep them in play moving forward, and I still believe that Poly tower will be new and have them. Now, if they add them to FW but roll Poly tower into PVB to keep it the same assocation, then it does further support that they are okay with the restricted product and sales numbers to go with it.

To bring two brand new resorts online at the same time, when VDH will only have come online a year prior seems to be a pretty unique move, when they still have RIV and AUL selling.

Obviously we are all speculating, and I have never said that RIV sales have been fantastic lately, but VGF went through periods of time recently with similar numbers, and we have now seen VDH with them.

I went back and looked at some of the early sales of Poly and there were months that they we well below 100K too. So, maybe it’s not that uncommon to go up and down?

Or, maybe the days in which a new resort can sell 100 to 150 K, outside of the initial demand, are gone because DVD has given new buyers so many choices at once?