Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Probably an unpopular opinion, but I’d love to see them wristband both Poly feature pools like they do at storm along bay. The overcrowding is going to become unbearable.

Is it unpopular? I would support it. At least on days when it’s more than 68 degrees. At SAB they check when when it’s cold and there are only a handful of crazy people around.

 

[Sandisw]

Probably an unpopular opinion, but I’d love to see them wristband both Poly feature pools like they do at storm along bay. The overcrowding is going to become unbearable.

They could decide to do that but I don’t see any situation where guests who are at Poly are restricted to any of the three pools. So all the bands would be doing is assuring that outside guests are not slipping in?

As I said, the Lava and Oasis Pools are hotel pools which means they, not DVC gets to decide who gets to use. Which is why I can’t see the DVC association forbidding access to Poly tower pool, assuming it becomes a common element while still expecting owners to have use to those that belong to the hotel.

I also can’t see a situation where DVC owners would want to lose access to the Lava and Oasis, just to keep cash guests out of the tower pool.

 

[hockeydad21]

Probably an unpopular opinion, but I’d love to see them wristband both Poly feature pools like they do at storm along bay. The overcrowding is going to become unbearable.

Couldn’t agree more!

 

[Cabius]

Assuming the point chart is on par or slightly below VGF...

I assume it'll be a little bit higher than VGF on a unit-type basis, though the mix of units may be more tilted toward higher-view categories.

If I look at Studio rates between the two, PVB is usually a bit more than VGF, not a bit less. So with that as our only point of reference to work with, I would expect the 1BR and 2BR prices to similarly be a bit more than their counterparts at VGF.

	PVB S	VGF S	PVB L	VGF L
Period 1	104 <	120	143 =	143
Period 2	125 =	125	158 >	153
Period 3	139 >	132	162 >	157
Period 4	146 >	132	174 >	164
Period 5	160 >	158	185 <	188
Period 6	181 >	172	204 >	199
Period 7	242 >	234	291 >	278

 

[hockeydad21]

I assume it'll be a little bit higher than VGF on a unit-type basis, though the mix of units may be more tilted toward higher-view categories.

If I look at Studio rates between the two, PVB is usually a bit more than VGF, not a bit less. So with that as our only point of reference to work with, I would expect the 1BR and 2BR prices to similarly be a bit more than their counterparts at VGF.

	PVB S	VGF S	PVB L	VGF L
Period 1	104 <	120	143 =	143
Period 2	125 =	125	158 >	153
Period 3	139 >	132	162 >	157
Period 4	146 >	132	174 >	164
Period 5	160 >	158	185 <	188
Period 6	181 >	172	204 >	199
Period 7	242 >	234	291 >	278

You very well could be right, but I think the poly tower and PVB has something a lot of people are forgetting about…theme park views (specifically the grand villas) and bungalows, which VGF doesn’t have either of. We know the poly tower will be rich in points, that sort of goes without saying. I just have a feeling that we may see these booking categories carry such a high point value due to demand, that the standard view rooms could be at or below VGF’s standard view.

Note: this is not something I have extreme confidence in, unlike the tower’s association. To me it just seems very unlike Disney to out-price their flagship WDW hotel/DVC property (VGF), except for the theme park views, which is why I think there’s a decent possibility it happens.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Just to be clear…we do not have official confirmation rules are the same..and while I definitely think it will be, there is still a nagging feeling in the back of my mind they might do something we are not expecting.

But, to answer to your question, it really depends on what the room count is and the point chart. I definitely do not see it anywhere near the AKV club level once sold out,

Now, if all PVB points end up being valid there for 11 months, and they don’t declare a lot of rooms to start…use sales as the guide…then I think we will see difficulty as non resort owners for those larger rooms to start.

It’s possible it could ease availability at BLT, but still too hard to tell. Assuming the point chart is on par or slightly below VGF, then I think Poly tower is going to be a VERY difficult resort to book for the first few years as everyone tries to get their first taste. Demand could ease over time, but who knows. I wouldn’t be shocked to see all availability gone at Poly tower by 11am of the 7 month mark for the first year it’s open.

Of course Disney can throw a curveball at any moment but just going off what seems to be the way it's going I'm going on the assumption that all non PVB points will be in play for Poly tower. I do wonder though if there will be any room availability at all at 7 months even at 8:00am sharp. This is probably going to become a renter's dream as it'll for sure command top dollar for the first few years I'm sure. I would love just being able to snag a 2 or 3 consecutive day reservation even if by sheer luck.

 

[Sandisw]

Of course Disney can throw a curveball at any moment but just going off what seems to be the way it's going I'm going on the assumption that all non PVB points will be in play for Poly tower. I do wonder though if there will be any room availability at all at 7 months even at 8:00am sharp. This is probably going to become a renter's dream as it'll for sure command top dollar for the first few years I'm sure. I would love just being able to snag a 2 or 3 consecutive day reservation even if by sheer luck.

I think once the number of declared rooms is large enough to absorb the current PVB points in the system for owners who want the tower, 7 month available rooms will be possible, subject to normal busy times.

It’s the initial period that is going to be tough. There are currently about 4 million PVB points and assuming it goes the way it appears, all 4 million will have access to the rooms.

If DVD starts out only declaring say 20% of the new tower, then there is going to be a huge imbalance initially.

Unlike BPK, I do not see them declaring all the units quickly. It will match sales.

However, if the rooms are fairly high priced in points per night, then non PVB owners will have a chance.

One reason I have not pulled the trigger on more RIV resale points is because I want to see the tower and how I like it. I won’t buy it but if I want to stay there occasionally then it makes sense to do more direct RIv.

It’s why I am secretly hoping the new incentives for RIv are strong.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I think once the number of declared rooms is large enough to absorb the current PVB points in the system for owners who want the tower, 7 month available rooms will be possible, subject to normal busy times.

It’s the initial period that is going to be tough. There are currently about 4 million PVB points and assuming it goes the way it appears, all 4 million will have access to the rooms.

If DVD starts out only declaring say 20% of the new tower, then there is going to be a huge imbalance initially.

Unlike BPK, I do not see them declaring all the units quickly. It will match sales.

However, if the rooms are fairly high priced in points per night, then non PVB owners will have a chance.

One reason I have not pulled the trigger on more RIV resale points is because I want to see the tower and how I like it. I won’t buy it but if I want to stay there occasionally then it makes sense to do more direct RIv.

It’s why I am secretly hoping the new incentives for RIv are strong.

2024 and into 2025 trips all reserved/tentatively planned anyway so there's no rush here either. Will see when 2026 rolls around what the situation is. But that's way too far forward looking. Will enjoy seeing how the Poly 2 tower situation develops in the coming months and years.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

2024 and into 2025 trips all reserved/tentatively planned anyway so there's no rush here either.

I’m still trying to figure out our summer 2024 trip.

 

[mkatsy]

They could decide to do that but I don’t see any situation where guests who are at Poly are restricted to any of the three pools. So all the bands would be doing is assuring that outside guests are not slipping in?

As I said, the Lava and Oasis Pools are hotel pools which means they, not DVC gets to decide who gets to use. Which is why I can’t see the DVC association forbidding access to Poly tower pool, assuming it becomes a common element while still expecting owners to have use to those that belong to the hotel.

I also can’t see a situation where DVC owners would want to lose access to the Lava and Oasis, just to keep cash guests out of the tower pool.

oh gosh no, it's not the cash guests. It's the pool hoppers (even though that perk was suspended eons ago), the straight up "non - guests", and the "day guests" of guests (cash or points) that come to check out the pool. All these extra bodies, while not ideal, are much more manageable at OKW or BWV.

 

[Sandisw]

oh gosh no, it's not the cash guests. It's the pool hoppers (even though that perk was suspended eons ago), the straight up "non - guests", and the "day guests" of guests (cash or points) that come to check out the pool. All these extra bodies, while not ideal, are much more manageable at OKW or BWV.

There are lots of people are pool hopping to Poly?

 

[mkatsy]

I’m not sure about Poly specifically, this topic of pool use comes up frequently (once a week) on other platforms such as Facebook. Saratoga Springs seems to suffer from the “non-guest” pool usage (theft) the most because of the free parking at Disney Springs. Then there are the hotel/DVC guests that openly admit to inviting their Orlando local friends to swim for the day at various properties. Because some in the group do have key cards, these folks go unnoticed for the most part. Wristbands limit pool usage to the number of guests on the room reservation, and in my opinion make will make a popular location like Poly much more enjoyable. [let me just edit this to add some additional information for those that are not up to speed on the nuance of the “pool battle”. It is perfectly acceptable to allow local friends to enjoy the pool amenities up to the room capacity of your reservation. Just add them to your empty “name” slots and everyone is happy. If your room sleeps five, your are entitled to five at the pool. The problem begins when someone has a full room roster and then brings four more local guests with them to the pool. Then it becomes crowded and uncomfortable for everyone.]

 

[Cabius]

There are lots of people are pool hopping to Poly?

I'm sure there is some non-zero number of people who either sneak in, or are non-staying guests of hotel patrons. You do have to scan a room key to access the pool area at PVB, but it would be simple enough to follow somebody in.

But I have no idea how a layperson would quantify or prove how often it happens. Is it 0.1% of the people at the pool? 1%? 10%? No idea.

And since wristbands would be a bit of a hassle, I think you'd need to know what kind of difference it would make. If there's a pool-hopping epidemic and half the people there are non-Poly guests, it'd be worth it. If you end up reducing the crowds by 2%, it's probably not worth the annoyance to guests, or the small cost of distributing and policing them.

 

[GGGT]

There are lots of people are pool hopping to Poly?

Usually not hoppers, but "crashers" as we call them from the parks, monorail, TTC, you name it.

 

[maui22]

It is very common for one person to open the gate near the GCH and others to follow them in. Whether they are staying at Poly/PVB or not is anyone's guess?

It's common for people to leave the pool and return for the following (up the steps from the pool) GCH gate.

• Capt Cooks (food, soda/water/coffee/tea refills).
• (Fake) Grass area for movies and entertainment.
• Dole Whip.

I believe Poly still restricts the beach from guests on July 4th. I can't recall if they implement this policy on July 3rd as well.

 

[pkrieger2287]

ROFR Alert: Polynesian DVC Resale Contracts Bought Back!​

In a surprising end to the month, there was a notable wave of Polynesian buybacks, adding fuel to the Polynesian DVC Tower speculation!

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blo...ch-24/?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=dvcfan

#disneyvacationclub #dvcresale #dvc #polynesian #disneyworld #disney #disneyparks

 

[Sandisw]

ROFR Alert: Polynesian DVC Resale Contracts Bought Back!​

In a surprising end to the month, there was a notable wave of Polynesian buybacks, adding fuel to the Polynesian DVC Tower speculation!

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blo...ch-24/?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=dvcfan

#disneyvacationclub #dvcresale #dvc #polynesian #disneyworld #disney #disneyparks

One of the elements that many figured supported association was lack of ROFR….so, just curious what are the thoughts at DVCRM now, beyond the raising of price?

 

[Brob2132]

Staying at the Dolphin this trip, but asked a guide in person about the tower (like so many others). “No information, wish we had something” etc. etc.

 

[pkrieger2287]

One of the elements that many figured supported association was lack of ROFR….so, just curious what are the thoughts at DVCRM now, beyond the raising of price?

This is just my own speculation, but:
- I think as we've all done throughout this you look at historical patterns. Grand Floridian saw a similar lack of ROFR prior to selling Big Pine Key; although when you look back at the data there were some one offs in October 2021, five months before the new building went on sale. Coincidence that this might align with the Poly timeline? Let the conspiracies begin!
- Honestly, DVC can't NOT be attracted by Poly points in the $125-$135 range. They stand to make roughly $100pp on flipping these once the new tower goes on sale. If they've got the cash this is an easy money maker and I feel like they've got to know unlike CFW and RIV, Polynesian points should have no problem whatsoever with sales.
- Why would you ROFR points after stopping sales of Poly? Perhaps they overcommitted a little and just need to bump back up the reserves?
- The lingering question we don't know the answer to yet is whether this was just a "warning shot" letting everyone know they were monitoring price or if we will see more in the coming days and weeks. So far nothing the past few days...
- You'll notice that I intentionally ignored the main question here because I think anyone still doubting the association at this point is probably in denial of some form. Everything since December has aligned with that thought, and I personally have never wavered, in my opinion, even prior to that.

 

[BayTower2010]

I have purposely not responded in over 6 months because I never thought there was a question as to the new tower being same association. At the DVC meeting in Dec 0f 2022 there was a slide show with labels clearly indicating the tower part of the same association. Than this past December we have a Disney executive stating most likely same association. Yet we have those on this board that came up with some amusing theories that this was just errors or attempts to miss direct. I am more of an Occam's razor kind of guy, so when we are being told that the tower is in the same association it makes no sense to me to believe otherwise. By the way I have a bet with myself that there will be someone who will reply to this post stating how wrong I am....nothing surprises me anymore.