Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[pkrieger2287]

I have purposely not responded in over 6 months because I never thought there was a question as to the new tower being same association. At the DVC meeting in Dec 0f 2022 there was a slide show with labels clearly indicating the tower part of the same association. Than this past December we have a Disney executive stating most likely same association. Yet we have those on this board that came up with some amusing theories that this was just errors or attempts to miss direct. I am more of an Occam's razor kind of guy, so when we are being told that the tower is in the same association it makes no sense to me to believe otherwise. By the way I have a bet with myself that there will be someone who will reply to this post stating how wrong I am....nothing surprises me anymore.

I feel invested... We need to know the terms of said bet please...

 

[walt34]

I have purposely not responded in over 6 months because I never thought there was a question as to the new tower being same association.

Maybe that was the problem? The one person who had all the answers stayed quiet for six months and left us poor souls alone to speculate on the limited information we had.

Would you be so kind to share the presentation from 2022 that ‘clearly’ indicated the association? I haven’t seen it yet but it certainly would have been good to have it earlier.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I have purposely not responded in over 6 months because I never thought there was a question as to the new tower being same association. At the DVC meeting in Dec 0f 2022 there was a slide show with labels clearly indicating the tower part of the same association. Than this past December we have a Disney executive stating most likely same association. Yet we have those on this board that came up with some amusing theories that this was just errors or attempts to miss direct. I am more of an Occam's razor kind of guy, so when we are being told that the tower is in the same association it makes no sense to me to believe otherwise. By the way I have a bet with myself that there will be someone who will reply to this post stating how wrong I am....nothing surprises me anymore.

That’s good you felt confident in Disney’s decisions…they’ve certainly never backtracked or changed their minds on anything…I guess rest of us like coming on here and debating and speculating for fun when there’s ambiguity and room for rational argument

 

[lilsonicfan]

By the way I have a bet with myself that there will be someone who will reply to this post stating how wrong I am....nothing surprises me anymore.

The best part of betting with yourself is that you're always a winner.

 

[BayTower2010]

Maybe that was the problem? The one person who had all the answers stayed quiet for six months and left us poor souls alone to speculate on the limited information we had.

Would you be so kind to share the presentation from 2022 that ‘clearly’ indicated the association? I haven’t seen it yet but it certainly would have been good to have it earlier.

Just as I stated, there was a slide show in 2022 and it labeled the new Tower as part of the Poly DVC. At the time, those who were convinced the Tower would be a separate association were quick to state it was just a minor person who probably miss labeled the slides. By the way, I won the bet. I owe myself one Diet Coke, which is the max I will bet anyone on anything.

 

[walt34]

By the way, I won the bet. I owe myself one Diet Coke, which is the max I will bet anyone on anything.

Im curious - how did you win your bet? I certainly haven’t said that you were wrong, just that you should have joined the conversation earlier.

I still don’t remember a presentation showing the association clearly but I do hope others will point it out.

 

[BayTower2010]

That’s good you felt confident in Disney’s decisions…they’ve certainly never backtracked or changed their minds on anything…I guess rest of us like coming on here and debating and speculating for fun when there’s ambiguity and room for rational argument

That is the fun part, debating and speculating. I so agree with you in this. Which is why I stopped posting, because I did not believe there was any ambiguity after that December 2022 slide show. No use getting in sometimes heated debate on an issue that appeared clear cut, yes I know that is my opinion.

 

[BamaGuy44]

I have purposely not responded in over 6 months because I never thought there was a question as to the new tower being same association. At the DVC meeting in Dec 0f 2022 there was a slide show with labels clearly indicating the tower part of the same association. Than this past December we have a Disney executive stating most likely same association. Yet we have those on this board that came up with some amusing theories that this was just errors or attempts to miss direct. I am more of an Occam's razor kind of guy, so when we are being told that the tower is in the same association it makes no sense to me to believe otherwise. By the way I have a bet with myself that there will be someone who will reply to this post stating how wrong I am....nothing surprises me anymore.

Congrats on being right, you seem very proud of it.

But I won't be gaslighted into believing they weren't ambiguous in what they were saying or anyone knew for sure 6 months ago, sorry. Occam's razor applies to that slide as well. Is it more likely it was some boilerplate template, or that they were purposely announcing it in a bizarre subliminal way a year before any DVC exec commented on it? I guess everyone can decide that one for themselves

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Congrats on being right, you seem very proud of it.

But I won't be gaslighted into believing they weren't ambiguous in what they were saying or anyone knew for sure 6 months ago, sorry. Occam's razor applies to that slide as well. Is it more likely it was some boilerplate template, or that they were purposely announcing it in a bizarre subliminal way a year before any DVC exec commented on it? I guess everyone can decide that one for themselves

So I personally felt that one of their SEC filings discussed in this thread was not that ambiguous (I voted a long time ago 80% same, 20% new)...but also Disney has changed its mind and altered things (often for the worse!) a lot over the past several years (just this year people were shocked to be locked out of Moonlight Magic even though they had paid resort stays), so I thought the speculation was interesting and useful. If I didn't have some doubt, I would have bought Poly in the $130pt range last year--because I did have some doubts about DVC changing it's mind, I wasn't willing to pay over $120 and ended up buying VGF direct instead... you won't see me crying over spilled milk though!

 

[Sandisw]

This is just my own speculation, but:
- I think as we've all done throughout this you look at historical patterns. Grand Floridian saw a similar lack of ROFR prior to selling Big Pine Key; although when you look back at the data there were some one offs in October 2021, five months before the new building went on sale. Coincidence that this might align with the Poly timeline? Let the conspiracies begin!
- Honestly, DVC can't NOT be attracted by Poly points in the $125-$135 range. They stand to make roughly $100pp on flipping these once the new tower goes on sale. If they've got the cash this is an easy money maker and I feel like they've got to know unlike CFW and RIV, Polynesian points should have no problem whatsoever with sales.
- Why would you ROFR points after stopping sales of Poly? Perhaps they overcommitted a little and just need to bump back up the reserves?
- The lingering question we don't know the answer to yet is whether this was just a "warning shot" letting everyone know they were monitoring price or if we will see more in the coming days and weeks. So far nothing the past few days...
- You'll notice that I intentionally ignored the main question here because I think anyone still doubting the association at this point is probably in denial of some form. Everything since December has aligned with that thought, and I personally have never wavered, in my opinion, even prior to that.

Was simply wondering what others are thinking.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Was simply wondering what others are thinking.

I know you have already weighed in on your guess on Poly 2 pricing, I would love to hear @pkrieger2287's guesses as well... though his post makes it sound like he thinks it could be another 5 months before Poly tower goes on sale? I don't feel very confident I can price it in June let alone October!

 

[Sandisw]

I know you have already weighed in on your guess on Poly 2 pricing, I would love to hear @pkrieger2287's guesses as well... though his post makes it sound like he thinks it could be another 5 months before Poly tower goes on sale? I don't feel very confident I can price it in June let alone October!

I definitely think we are looking at later, Take VDH….it started in May…and opened in September…so, 5 months puts us into late August….that could be right.

 

[Patsaizan]

Was simply wondering what others are thinking.

And this is what makes this thread so interesting. Reading others opinions and speculations. It isn’t a contest on who will be right in the end or who never wavered in their opinion. Just today I spoke with my guide who said we still don’t know if the new Poly 2 will be under the same association. Let the speculation continue until it is formally announced.

 

[CanadianDVC2024]

This is just my own speculation, but:
- I think as we've all done throughout this you look at historical patterns. Grand Floridian saw a similar lack of ROFR prior to selling Big Pine Key; although when you look back at the data there were some one offs in October 2021, five months before the new building went on sale. Coincidence that this might align with the Poly timeline? Let the conspiracies begin!
- Honestly, DVC can't NOT be attracted by Poly points in the $125-$135 range. They stand to make roughly $100pp on flipping these once the new tower goes on sale. If they've got the cash this is an easy money maker and I feel like they've got to know unlike CFW and RIV, Polynesian points should have no problem whatsoever with sales.
- Why would you ROFR points after stopping sales of Poly? Perhaps they overcommitted a little and just need to bump back up the reserves?
- The lingering question we don't know the answer to yet is whether this was just a "warning shot" letting everyone know they were monitoring price or if we will see more in the coming days and weeks. So far nothing the past few days...
- You'll notice that I intentionally ignored the main question here because I think anyone still doubting the association at this point is probably in denial of some form. Everything since December has aligned with that thought, and I personally have never wavered, in my opinion, even prior to that.

Just wanted to comment on a couple things

Firstly, when the offer for $125 was accepted I was fairly certain it wasn’t going to get ROFR’d. I had made that assumption based off the fact that literally just a couple weeks beforehand someone had gotten Poly for almost $7 per point less. This was a back and forth negotiation and I was thrilled we finally settled on 125 based off of the number of points available.

Secondly, my understanding is that the ROFR monster almost always prefers stripped contracts and this one had the full allotment of points which the seller (now Disney) would have to pay dues for.

So essentially they are going to pay an additional $3,300 dues on a contract that isn’t being actively sold. Maybe they anticipate it being sold before February 1st 2025 and that’s why they took it? Not sure.

Lastly, ROFR has been quiet for a while now because they don’t have a lot of liquid cash. I figured they had a bit stashed but I thought they were using it for VGF and VGC where there’s lengthy waitlists.

Anyways, I read the situation wrong and have egg on my face. However, I disagree with the assumption that we should have all figured Disney was going to be attractive to the $125-$135 range contracts because nothing prior to mid-March suggested they were.

 

[pkrieger2287]

Just wanted to comment on a couple things

Firstly, when the offer for $125 was accepted I was fairly certain it wasn’t going to get ROFR’d. I had made that assumption based off the fact that literally just a couple weeks beforehand someone had gotten Poly for almost $7 per point less. This was a back and forth negotiation and I was thrilled we finally settled on 125 based off of the number of points available.

Secondly, my understanding is that the ROFR monster almost always prefers stripped contracts and this one had the full allotment of points which the seller (now Disney) would have to pay dues for.

So essentially they are going to pay an additional $3,300 dues on a contract that isn’t being actively sold. Maybe they anticipate it being sold before February 1st 2025 and that’s why they took it? Not sure.

Lastly, ROFR has been quiet for a while now because they don’t have a lot of liquid cash. I figured they had a bit stashed but I thought they were using it for VGF and VGC where there’s lengthy waitlists.

Anyways, I read the situation wrong and have egg on my face. However, I disagree with the assumption that we should have all figured Disney was going to be attractive to the $125-$135 range contracts because nothing prior to mid-March suggested they were.

Just to clarify here, I never said WE should have figured Disney would have been attracted at this price. I'm a case in point: I bought 175 Poly points at $130pp earlier last year. But someone internally very well may have finally looked at the numbers and said, "Why are we allowing these great money-making opportunities to slip by?". Disney pays attention to something when it wants to and I think perhaps some eyes finally took a look at things which triggered the recent activity.

 

[CanadianDVC2024]

Just to clarify here, I never said WE should have figured Disney would have been attracted at this price. I'm a case in point: I bought 175 Poly points at $130pp earlier last year. But someone internally very well may have finally looked at the numbers and said, "Why are we allowing these great money-making opportunities to slip by?". Disney pays attention to something when it wants to and I think perhaps some eyes finally took a look at things which triggered the recent activity.

I legit thought ROFR was one single person and I honestly thought I was in the clear until I wasn’t.

I think we can all agree that predicting Disney moves is a crapshoot.

 

[pkrieger2287]

I legit thought ROFR was one single person and I honestly thought I was in the clear until I wasn’t.

I think we can all agree that predicting Disney moves is a crapshoot.

You aren't fully wrong here - One person essentially operates this division, but I'm doubtful they are making the actual decisions. This could be automated or determined by who knows how many others. 100% crapshoot though... but craps can be fun! Lol

 

[Sandisw]

You aren't fully wrong here - One person essentially operates this division, but I'm doubtful they are making the actual decisions. This could be automated or determined by who knows how many others. 100% crapshoot though... but craps can be fun! Lol

To add, they definitely don't want things to be "figured out" and will always do something out of the ordinary, just when you think you found at least one clue!!!!! LOL

 

[CarolynFH]

this one had the full allotment of points which the seller (now Disney) would have to pay dues for.

So essentially they are going to pay an additional $3,300 dues on a contract that isn’t being actively sold.

Just to clarify, Disney doesn't pay dues per se. They only chip in if the amount collected from regular non-Disney owners isn't enough to pay the bills during that calendar year. Because of that, I honestly don't know whether the amount of dues that would have been paid by a new owner enters into their ROFR decision making or not.

 

[Sandisw]

Just to clarify, Disney doesn't pay dues per se. They only chip in if the amount collected from regular non-Disney owners isn't enough to pay the bills during that calendar year. Because of that, I honestly don't know whether the amount of dues that would have been paid by a new owner enters into their ROFR decision making or not.

To add, I have heard that when the buyer is not having to reimburse the seller for dues it can "peak" their interest since they don't pay the dues...but would have to reimburse the seller if that is how the contract was written! Of course, none of us know for sure!!