Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[mkatsy]

To use the old tootsie roll pop commercial…

How many resale purchase ROFRs does it take to make someone buy direct? Part of their reasoning may be to increase demand.

ROFR is the thief of joy

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

But, they have stopped all direct sales. And the newest one that was taken is stripped until 2025, so that particular set of ownership can’t be sold until we hit the first 2025 UY, which is 10 months away.

I think we won’t see sales start until July or August and I think the initial incentive could follow the CFW strategy which didnt start out great, especially if there is concern the project won’t be ready for opening on time by years ends.

Yes, obviously theory 2 can be ruled out unless/until they start offering PVB direct again—but I wonder if it’s like VGC where maybe your guide can get it for you if you’re lucky?

Re: stripped points, can they reload 2024/2025 points from PVB owners who are exchanging (?) points for member cruises, etc?

 

[JackosinDIS]

Agree with this, if they are going to have any chance of selling at $239+ then resale needs to be up at $170. If it stays at current levels, you are asking people to part with an extra $15k on a standard sized contract (!!) for direct, but otherwise exactly the same product as resale. I know that some may see the benefits as being worth paying that for, but it would very much narrow the audience of potential buyers. If they can get that down to ‘only’ $5k extra, there’s a wider market of direct buyers I assume. Although saying that, maybe it won’t make a difference and people will buy no matter what.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Agree with this, if they are going to have any chance of selling at $239+ then resale needs to be up at $170. If it stays at current levels, you are asking people to part with an extra $15k on a standard sized contract (!!) for direct, but otherwise exactly the same product as resale. I know that some may see the benefits as being worth paying that for, but it would very much narrow the audience of potential buyers. If they can get that down to ‘only’ $5k extra, there’s a wider market of direct buyers I assume. Although saying that, maybe it won’t make a difference and people will buy no matter what.

Some people will buy direct no matter what, but many of us who already have blue cards, a lot of direct points, or grandfathered resale points aren’t going to pay more than $10-25 extra per point. Also, if they close the gap to $25 or less, how many existing resale owners sell their points and flip up into direct purchasers?

The question (as I see it) is: how many of us savvy* DVC veterans are they hoping to sell direct points to and at what point of the cycle? As I see it, each way has risk— if they start high (a la CFW or even VDH) a bunch will buy 150-300 resale, and be tapped out even if they later try to lower the price. If they start low (let’s say $185 or less after incentives and MB), it’s going to be really hard to convince others that they are serious about staying above $200 and many will wait. Maybe they can thread the needle with high opening prices but REALLY aggressive existing owner discounts for like 2-6 weeks that don’t kick in until the 300/400 point level? It has the benefit of rewarding already loyal DVC owners willing to make another huge investment in Disney. Also will get us DISboard folks speculating about buying 400 point contracts split 200/100/50/50.

*(if I do say so myself, lol)

 

[JackosinDIS]

Some people will buy direct no matter what, but many of us who already have blue cards, a lot of direct points, or grandfathered resale points aren’t going to pay more than $10-25 extra per point. Also, if they close the gap to $25 or less, how many existing resale owners sell their points and flip up into direct purchasers?

The question (as I see it) is: how many of us savvy* DVC veterans are they hoping to sell direct points to and at what point of the cycle? As I see it, each way has risk— if they start high (a la CFW or even VDH) a bunch will buy 150-300 resale, and be tapped out even if they later try to lower the price. If they start low (let’s say $185 or less after incentives and MB), it’s going to be really hard to convince others that they are serious about staying above $200 and many will wait. Maybe they can thread the needle with high opening prices but REALLY aggressive existing owner discounts for like 2-6 weeks that don’t kick in until the 300/400 point level? It has the benefit of rewarding already loyal DVC owners willing to make another huge investment in Disney. Also will get us DISboard folks speculating about buying 400 point contracts split 200/100/50/50.

*(if I do say so myself, lol)

If that happens I’m clubbing together with someone on here to buy

 

[CarolynFH]

Re: stripped points, can they reload 2024/2025 points from PVB owners who are exchanging (?) points for member cruises, etc?

No. The points exchanged for cruises, etc., can't be put into a contract and sold to a buyer. Disney can use them only to reserve rooms that they can rent for cash (and they use that cash to pay Disney Cruise Line).

 

[BrianLo]

I think there will be moderate opening Poly incentives. They are competing against the fire-sale VGF (lesser RIV) quarter and the VDH let down. While Poly will do gangbusters, I doubt they want to launch at an atrocious price that causes a meagre pace. They want to hit great volume and 'good enough' incentives to get there.

Poly is also competing against resale and for some reason there feels like less desire to get in specifically direct than there was with VGF. It helps that VGF was a shut out resort more or less, whereas Poly isn't.

 

[Sandisw]

Yes, obviously theory 2 can be ruled out unless/until they start offering PVB direct again—but I wonder if it’s like VGC where maybe your guide can get it for you if you’re lucky?

Re: stripped points, can they reload 2024/2025 points from PVB owners who are exchanging (?) points for member cruises, etc?

They can’t create new points so if somone has used the points in any way, those points are gone.

In this case, that contract has no 2024 points so when it goes back into the pile, it won’t add any 2024 points.

If an owner trades out, those points are considered used…plus those points can not be sold because they belong to the owner of the contract who used them.

According to the different DVC people I have talked to, the sales were paused…like with VGf…and no sales…in anticipation for Poly tower.

So, it’s not like a VGC situation as that was never going back on sale

 

[BeachClub2014]

They can’t create new points so if somone has used the points in any way, those points are gone.

In this case, that contract has no 2024 points so when it goes back into the pile, it won’t add any 2024 points.

If an owner trades out, those points are considered used…plus those points can not be sold because they belong to the owner of the contract who used them.

According to the different DVC people I have talked to, the sales were paused…like with VGf…and no sales…in anticipation for Poly tower.

So, it’s not like a VGC situation as that was never going back on sale

It's listed as a purchase option on the website. I haven't inquired of my guide, but seems odd that they'd still list it for sale if you can't buy it?

 

[maui22]

We should have a poll on when Poly tower sales will begin. It would start another Poly tower thread that can be 90+ pages long.

 

[Sandisw]

They can’t create new points so if somone has used the points in any way, those points are gone.

In this case, that contract has no 2024 points so when it goes back into the pile, it won’t add any 2024 points.

If an owner trades out, those points are considered used…plus those points can not be sold because they belong to the owner of the contract who used them.

According to the different DVC people I have talked to, the sales were paused…like with VGf…and no sales…in anticipation for Poly tower.

So, it’s not like a VGC situation as that was never going back on sale

It's listed as a purchase option on the website. I haven't inquired of my guide, but seems odd that they'd still list it for sale if you can't buy it?

View attachment 851346

Not sure why it’s there because as of a few weeks ago, guides were told no more sales.

It was my guide plus all the others in the parks and DVC lounge…

However, with DVC, maybe it’s changed since I was there around March 21st?

But, having been through DVd taking a contract back, they don’t seem to rush so all these contracts taken so far will take a while to be back into their inventory.

 

[NY Pirate Princess]

At what price point does everyone see poly launching at? Is everyone thinking $239 with incentives only for 150 and over? Or will it mirror the recent incentives and offer incentives at 100 points? 50 minimum for members 100 for non members?

 

[BeachClub2014]

Not sure why it’s there because as of a few weeks ago, guides were told no more sales.

It was my guide plus all the others in the parks and DVC lounge…

However, with DVC, maybe it’s changed since I was there around March 21st?

But, having been through DVd taking a contract back, they don’t seem to rush so all these contracts taken so far will take a while to be back into their inventory.

Who knows anymore with DVC. They seem to be doing things a tad unusual, like ROFR'ing Polynesian. Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.

 

[JackosinDIS]

At what price point does everyone see poly launching at? Is everyone thinking $239 with incentives only for 150 and over? Or will it mirror the recent incentives and offer incentives at 100 points? 50 minimum for members 100 for non members?

I’m thinking $239, but the curve ball is the fact it will only have 41 years left to run on the contract… will they take that in to account and reduce to a slightly lower base price?… who knows

 

[Sandisw]

Who knows anymore with DVC. They seem to be doing things a tad unusual, like ROFR'ing Polynesian. Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.

I agree. This entire project has been up and down in terms of how they are doing it.

They haven’t even starting promoting it yet. I would have thought we’d have some offical updates by now.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I agree. This entire project has been up and down in terms of how they are doing it.

They haven’t even starting promoting it yet. I would have thought we’d have some offical updates by now.

I agree. I know you've said in the past that you wouldn't be surprised to see some last-minute "twist" when they roll this stupid tower out for sale, and I tend to think that you are right.

 

[Sandisw]

At what price point does everyone see poly launching at? Is everyone thinking $239 with incentives only for 150 and over? Or will it mirror the recent incentives and offer incentives at 100 points? 50 minimum for members 100 for non members?

I think base will match VDH and meaningful incentives will start at 150 point level.

 

[BrianLo]

I think base will match VDH and meaningful incentives will start at 150 point level.

Why not RIV (and indirectly VGF?)

I think the new tower looks very attractive, but Poly is not WDW's premiere resort by their own admission. It just feels like a Disneyland thing since they lack the ability to add more DVC to their resort at the drop of a hat like WDW can.

It was one thing when VGF was 207 and small contract resale was 180. It's another if Poly would be 239 and small resale contracts to be had for 150 or whatever.

 

[Sandisw]

Why not RIV (and indirectly VGF?)

I think the new tower looks very attractive, but Poly is not WDW's premiere resort by their own admission. It just feels like a Disneyland thing since they lack the ability to add more DVC to their resort at the drop of a hat like WDW can.

It was one thing when VGF was 207 and small contract resale was 180. It's another if Poly would be 239 and small resale contracts to be had for 150 or whatever.

I just think it will because many say now that it will be PVB, there is strong demand for it and this will price to match.

The price difference and lack of RoFR for so long, letting it drop, was one of the reasons I was convinced they would not combine with PVB so resale pricing was immaterial. They obviously feel they can sell regardless.

I just do not think it will base price the same as CFW and since thst is the newest one opening, I see it more in price comparison to that.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I don’t currently think I need more WDW points but I am curious to hear from people who hope to buy PVB direct (or are considering it): 1) what is the highest price you would buy direct $185? 200? Before or after MB? And 2) what is the highest premium over resale you would be willing to pay: $15 $20 $50 $unlimited?

I am not a DVC mole, I swear! I do assume Disney is trying to figure out the answers to these questions, and it will determine how they price it. Someone on their team should be thinking about specific combo offers as well (discounts if you combine PVB with RIV/VDH/AUL/CFW). I can resist a good price on any single resort but if I could get 100 at VDH, 100 at PVB, and 50 at AUL the FOMO would be harder to resist.