Most Economical Home Resort?

[Memorymakerfor4]

I think that BLT has the best setup for the smallest increase in dues as the years move forward. Small footprint and the Contemporary carries things it doesn't offer. The article surprised me by saying CC, I would've thought the cabins factored against it more. Maybe sharing spaces and costs with the hotel side outweighs them.

Why are GF's dues so low? With 4 more years left on the contract than BLT, if we were to add on direct right now and didn't want more CC points, GF would be tempting. BLT would be as well. Poly will be in a few years if that tower gets built. It's going to be an exciting few years in that area.

 

[gear02]

Sorry for digging up an old thread but I thought the economical model that the board sponsor had was very interesting. It's a good data point, but as many noted it's just one data point. That said, it was old so I took the liberty to update it to today, using the prices from the average resale report from August 2022. Hope this is helpful to some.

Resort	Average Cost Per Pt	Deed Exp	Years Left	Cost Per Pt Per Year	2022 Dues	Total Cost per Pt Per Year	Rank Sept 2022	Rank Spring 2021	Rank Fall 2020
Grand Floridian	$174.00	2064	42	$4.14	7.01	$11.15	1	5	5
Polynesian	$166.00	2066	44	$3.77	7.39	$11.16	2	1	2
Copper Creek	$166.00	2068	46	$3.61	7.6	$11.21	3	3	6
Riviera***	$144.00	2070	48	$3.00	8.38	$11.38	4	6	NR
Saratoga Springs	$130.00	2054	32	$4.06	7.33	$11.39	5	2	1
Bay Lake Tower	$169.00	2060	38	$4.45	7.08	$11.53	6	4	3
Aulani*	$117.00	2062	40	$2.93	8.67	$11.60	7	7	4
Animal Kingdom	$133.00	2057	35	$3.80	8.24	$12.04	8	8	7
Old Key West (Extended)	$120.00	2057	35	$3.43	8.81	$12.24	9	9	8
Boulder Ridge	$121.00	2042	20	$6.05	8.15	$14.20	10	13	12
Grand Californian	$265.00	2060	38	$6.97	7.48	$14.45	11	10	9
Hilton Head	$88.00	2042	20	$4.40	10.07	$14.47	12	12	11
Old Key West	$120.00	2042	20	$6.00	8.81	$14.81	13	11	10
Boardwalk	$148.00	2042	20	$7.40	8.08	$15.48	14	14	13
Vero Beach**	$76.00	2042	20	$3.80	11.94	$15.74	15	16	14
Beach Club	$174.00	2042	20	$8.70	7.54	$16.24	16	15	15

Edit: This is all the board sponsor's data - just did the calculations.

 

[PsycProfPlum]

Sorry for digging up an old thread but I thought the economical model that DVC Resale Market had was very interesting. It's a good data point, but as many noted it's just one data point. That said, it was old so I took the liberty to update it to today, using the prices from the average resale report from August 2022. Hope this is helpful to some.

Resort	Average Cost Per Pt	Deed Exp	Years Left	Cost Per Pt Per Year	2022 Dues	Total Cost per Pt Per Year	Rank Sept 2022	Rank Spring 2021	Rank Fall 2020
Grand Floridian	$174.00	2064	42	$4.14	7.01	$11.15	1	5	5
Polynesian	$166.00	2066	44	$3.77	7.39	$11.16	2	1	2
Copper Creek	$166.00	2068	46	$3.61	7.6	$11.21	3	3	6
Riviera***	$144.00	2070	48	$3.00	8.38	$11.38	4	6	NR
Saratoga Springs	$130.00	2054	32	$4.06	7.33	$11.39	5	2	1
Bay Lake Tower	$169.00	2060	38	$4.45	7.08	$11.53	6	4	3
Aulani*	$117.00	2062	40	$2.93	8.67	$11.60	7	7	4
Animal Kingdom	$133.00	2057	35	$3.80	8.24	$12.04	8	8	7
Old Key West (Extended)	$120.00	2057	35	$3.43	8.81	$12.24	9	9	8
Boulder Ridge	$121.00	2042	20	$6.05	8.15	$14.20	10	13	12
Grand Californian	$265.00	2060	38	$6.97	7.48	$14.45	11	10	9
Hilton Head	$88.00	2042	20	$4.40	10.07	$14.47	12	12	11
Old Key West	$120.00	2042	20	$6.00	8.81	$14.81	13	11	10
Boardwalk	$148.00	2042	20	$7.40	8.08	$15.48	14	14	13
Vero Beach**	$76.00	2042	20	$3.80	11.94	$15.74	15	16	14
Beach Club	$174.00	2042	20	$8.70	7.54	$16.24	16	15	15

wow. that's super helpful! Thank you!

 

[RoseGold]

As usual, the usual suspects for SAP all a hair away -- SSR, CCV, Poly. The ones that are suprising are how much ground BLT and VGF have gained. Add in the value point category at BLT and it is looking good.

 

[havoc315]

As usual, the usual suspects for SAP all a hair away -- SSR, CCV, Poly. The ones that are suprising are how much ground BLT and VGF have gained. Add in the value point category at BLT and it is looking good.

Not surprising -- Predictable based on:
1 -- VGF price has decreased significantly as it re-opened direct sales. Re-sale pricing drop from 190's to 170's.. thus the sharp decrease.
2 -- BLT, meanwhile, has dropped in value from 3rd to 4th to 6th. Primarily due to more competition from resorts with more years remaining. (addition of Riviera, the price drop at VGF)

 

[pianomanzano]

Personally, I’ve found this chart that the board sponsor puts out as kind of useless because it’s a snapshot in time of what dues are essentially. Those can increase or stay flat based on what’s happening at that particular resort for a given year (e.g. replenishing refurb budgets). It also doesn’t factor in point values for rooms. A 100 points in a studio at Grand Flo is not the same as 100 points in a studio at Saratoga. That kind of analysis would be more beneficial from an “economical” perspective.

 

[RoseGold]

It also doesn’t factor in point values for rooms.

I mean the point of the chart is sleep around points, so no, it doesn't care about points for rooms.

If you add in points, it's going to be hard to beat OKW/SSR, because the chart does so much work. But then you're at OKW/SSR.

 

[havoc315]

Personally, I’ve found this chart that the board sponsor puts out as kind of useless because it’s a snapshot in time of what dues are essentially. Those can increase or stay flat based on what’s happening at that particular resort for a given year (e.g. replenishing refurb budgets). It also doesn’t factor in point values for rooms. A 100 points in a studio at Grand Flo is not the same as 100 points in a studio at Saratoga.

But that's not economics or math or finance, that's subjective preference.

A studio at GF is not the same as a studio at Saratoga. Just like a BMW is not a Chevy.

A "point" is a set trading unit. 100 GFV points can be used to book studios at Saratoga, and 100 points at Saratoga can be used to book studios at GFV. So the point charts are irrelevant to the calculation of their value.

Of course the chart doesn't reflect subjective preferences. It doesn't reflect whether one would rather home resorts preferences at once resort or another.

Look at it this way -- It's the price of sleep around points. Looking at that chart, it would be silly to buy 100 Beach Club points to use as sleep around points for staying at other resorts. But GFV actually gives you the cheapest sleep around points.

And if my goal is to stay at Saratoga springs.... considering their usually pretty open availability, it would be cheaper to buy GFV points than buying SSR points. (Though that isn't exactly true, because the chart fails to consider the time-cost of money, which if correctly factored in, would change the rankings around a little).

That kind of analysis would be more beneficial from an “economical” perspective.

The chart has your answer -- Economically, you're better off buying GFV points and using them at SSR, than buying SSR... Though as I said, the chart is actually a bit off for failing to factor in time-cost of money.

Roughly speaking, if time cost was factored in -- Riviera, Aulani and SSR would climb up the chart. Beach Club would remain at the very bottom but would actually be valued even worse.

 

[havoc315]

I mean the point of the chart is sleep around points, so no, it doesn't care about points for rooms.

If you add in points, it's going to be hard to beat OKW/SSR, because the chart does so much work. But then you're at OKW/SSR.

Correct. It's like asking 2 different questions:
1 -- What's the most economical way to buy your dream car -- Cash up front, trade in, lease, finance...

vs..
2 -- Which car is the cheapest
So yes, the Chevy will always be cheaper than the Ferrari. But it isn't necessarily your dream car.

 

[gear02]

The chart has your answer -- Economically, you're better off buying GFV points and using them at SSR, than buying SSR... Though as I said, the chart is actually a bit off for failing to factor in time-cost of money.

This is why I wanted to look at this data, because GFV being better "economically" is counter intuitive to me considering how expensive the resort is.

 

[havoc315]

This is why I wanted to look at this data, because GFV being better "economically" is counter intuitive to me considering how expensive the resort is.

GFV is, over the long term, one of the better values. Not quite as good as suggested by the chart, but very good.

I could design a spreadsheet that also adds in time-value of money, but I'd rather someone better trained in finance did it.

But key -- The longer a resort contract, the better the long term value. Not going to be a huge difference between a 2062 and 2064 resort, but there will be a huge difference between 2042 and 2062.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Aside from dues (which don't rise equally over time), another big factor that the chart does not consider is the actual length of ownership. Resorts with long contracts benefit in this calculation because the buy-in cost is spread out more. But many people do not keep their DVC/timeshare contracts though that length. It would be useful to re-do the chart for specific lengths of times - how do the resorts stack up after 5, 10, 15, etc years of ownership?

 

[havoc315]

Aside from dues (which don't rise equally over time), another big factor that the chart does not consider is the actual length of ownership.

Yes it does. That's why the cost is calculated "per year." It does spread out the cost.

Resorts with long contracts benefit in this calculation because the buy-in cost is spread out more. But many people do not keep their DVC/timeshare contracts though that length. It would be useful to re-do the chart for specific lengths of times - how do the resorts stack up after 5, 10, 15, etc years of ownership?

That's implicitly already factored into the chart. Because even if you only keep a contract for X number of years, there is still residual value in the contract. You get that residual value back when you re-sell the contract, and a longer contract will have more residual value.

 

[Nursemanit]

I have a hunch RR will crack the top 3 in the next round of MF increases. In 5 years it will be #1 - which helps no one since is the only resale that cant be a SAP.

 

[BeachClub2014]

The spread in the top 9 resorts is $1.09. Big money.

 

[Ruttangel]

The chart is just a guide, your resale purchase price might be much lower and be a loaded contract so your purchase beats the No.1 resort. Obviously buying a stripped VGF contract is going to less economical too. Do your own homework is my motto

 

[PsycProfPlum]

The chart is just a guide, your resale purchase price might be much lower and be a loaded contract so your purchase beats the No.1 resort. Obviously buying a stripped VGF contract is going to less economical too. Do your own homework is my motto

Agreed. The chart is extremely valuable for someone trying to learn the ropes about DVC and the cost basics but no chart could ever tell anyone what the right purchase is for them.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Yes it does. That's why the cost is calculated "per year." It does spread out the cost.



That's implicitly already factored into the chart. Because even if you only keep a contract for X number of years, there is still residual value in the contract. You get that residual value back when you re-sell the contract, and a longer contract will have more residual value.

But then the assumption is that residual value stays constant over time at today's costs.

 

[havoc315]

But then the assumption is that residual value stays constant over time at today's costs.

No. It assumes there is correlation between residual value and the remaining years left in the contract --- Though that assumption is not necessarily fully accurate either.

 

[beldred]

Agreed. The chart is extremely valuable for someone trying to learn the ropes about DVC and the cost basics but no chart could ever tell anyone what the right purchase is for them.

It's a great chart. I looked at it and others like it. I did tons of my own math. I researched for weeks, months.
And I still made an offer on a small BCV contract this week. It was dead last in every computation I did, not counting the non-WDW resorts. The heart wants what the heart wants I guess. Or I'm a grade-A sucker. Or both.