Never before have a seen the touring plans so inaccurate!

[disneyerin]

I agree with the op....

But I don't think it's any kind of incompetency (if that is a word...) on the part of Touring Plans or easywdw. I bet they are as surprised by the crowds as we are. But I am feeling pretty discouraged by it all...

Some people have magical times even when the crowds are crazy. I am SO envious of them! When we were younger, large crowds were kind of an "adventure" and it was easy to shrug them off. But it got old over time....and our planning became more strategic.

That's when we started to only go during the first two weeks of December...... and it was like Tink flew down and sprinkled us with buckets and buckets of pixie dust. Starting with our honeymoon, our trips ever since have been pure joy.

This will be our 7th December trip. But I think this will be our last. I'm convinced that finding a "low crowd" week from now on will be like closing your eyes, pointing at the calendar, and hoping for the best. They'll be there, but it will require more luck than planning.

With me, it's just part of getting older I think. Now I like to relax, take my time, and soak in the magic and beauty when I go to Disney. My DH and I have been Disney fanatics since we were in grade school (1960s......oh help..) growing up in Southern Ca. We always will be. But maybe it's time for us to let go of WDW.

I'm not angry about any of the changes.....Disney, as a business, is just doing exactly what it's supposed to do.

I'm just really sad.....

 

[kapoof]

I have no experience with the new system, but am wondering if it is possible to go to the parks and enjoy a day without using the fast pass? I just don't want to have to do all that planning in advance, yet I'm concerned that we wouldn't be able to do much without using them. It sounds like we wouldn't even be able to find a decent spot to view the parades and firework. Am I right? Thanks in advance for your thoughts

We didn't get one fast pass last month while there. We didn't have the new magic bands though either. I am not a huge fast pass fan. I don't mind grabbing one for soarn, but I am not going to plan on them months before I am even there!!! Yes you can go and have a good time still.

 

[jillgunter]

It has been very high crowds in deed. We tried to plan according to crowds, but well it didn't work. My suggestion is get there early and do as much as you can.

 

[smraynor]

I agree with the op....

But I don't think it's any kind of incompetency (if that is a word...) on the part of Touring Plans or easywdw. I bet they are as surprised by the crowds as we are. But I am feeling pretty discouraged by it all...

Some people have magical times even when the crowds are crazy. I am SO envious of them! When we were younger, large crowds were kind of an "adventure" and it was easy to shrug them off. But it got old over time....and our planning became more strategic.

That's when we started to only go during the first two weeks of December...... and it was like Tink flew down and sprinkled us with buckets and buckets of pixie dust. Starting with our honeymoon, our trips ever since have been pure joy.

This will be our 7th December trip. But I think this will be our last. I'm convinced that finding a "low crowd" week from now on will be like closing your eyes, pointing at the calendar, and hoping for the best. They'll be there, but it will require more luck than planning.

With me, it's just part of getting older I think. Now I like to relax, take my time, and soak in the magic and beauty when I go to Disney. My DH and I have been Disney fanatics since we were in grade school (1960s......oh help..) growing up in Southern Ca. We always will be. But maybe it's time for us to let go of WDW.

I'm not angry about any of the changes.....Disney, as a business, is just doing exactly what it's supposed to do.

I'm just really sad.....

We are also in the "early December club" and lament the good ol' days of low crowds.

 

[daytondisney]

I have no experience with the new system, but am wondering if it is possible to go to the parks and enjoy a day without using the fast pass? I just don't want to have to do all that planning in advance, yet I'm concerned that we wouldn't be able to do much without using them. It sounds like we wouldn't even be able to find a decent spot to view the parades and firework. Am I right? Thanks in advance for your thoughts

Been here since last Weds. Did AK Thurs and got a FP for Safari only because a huge group of Latin youth soccer kids were just lining up as we got near it. Otherwise, normal wait was 15 minutes. Walked onto Everest in afternoon. Same with Dinosaur.

MK on Friday was same. Did one FP for Space Mountain but that was it. We did everything but Frontierland and Adventureland as we knew we could do those at MNSSHP. Walked on whatever we wanted at Party.

DHS was crowded on Sat and Toy Story was nightmare if it is on you must-do list. Got FP for evening (at a few minutes past rope drop) then waited over 90 minutes to ride in Standby. Star Wars Jedi Training went fast. I took boys straight from rope drop while rest of fam went to TS line and we had choice of only the last 2 shows. Since second to last conflicted with TS FP, we went with last. Did everything else very leisurely.

Did DHS again today and without stressing about TS and Jedi, very relaxed doing everything else. I was so relaxed that I got picked to be in the Indiana Jones show! And a nice lady gave our family of 6 4 dinner tickets to Fantasmic, which CM Jennifer saw this she offered to allow all 6 of us in. Dead center, row 7. Magical!

Epcot was ridiculous. I was in first wave at rope drop and as we rounded the corner the marquee had FPs at about 5 pm. Nobody had even made it to the darn kiosks yet! We got one for evening, which meant we were screwed (90 minute wait) for Soarin'. I think they'll work these magic bands out and the playing field will level out.

 

[Gorechick]

I think this year in general has higher crowds due to the new FLE. We went in 2012 and during the time I was planning for that trip the boards were ripe with people putting off trips til this year.

 

[WILDERNESS FAN 55]

Just do not understand everyones stress levels with making some plans in advance. ?? You DON"T have to at all and you DON"T have to for everyday either ....maybe just one or two for sure days. Get those couple must sees and be as flexible as you want....it's ONLY 3 per park
As for crowd levels I think there are a lot of spoiled people out there. There have been large crowds since 1971.

 

[shadow0421]

If I hadn't already bought Sea World tickets (which are not refundable) I probably would have canceled this year and try to plan for next. I'm not looking forward to waiting in 90 min lines my whole vacation. I hope these higher than normal crowds disappear when I go down Nov 2.

 

[jtowntoflorida]

This is our third October trip in 3 years. Sunday I thought MK "seemed crowded" (especially for a party night) and the pool at our resort (WL) was packed. Monday, I felt the crowds were very light at Epcot. Tuesday we went to MK and I didn't think it was crowded at all, and DHS today was very managable. The FP situation with TSM is out of control and Pixar Place was crammed full of mostly very irritated people, but the rest of the park was fine.

I will say that the one bummer is that the "RD touring" strategy doesn't seem to be as beneficial as in the past--maybe the secret is finally out? We waited forever at RD to see the Fairies yesterday and today the SB wait for TSM was 30 minutes immediately at RD. Part of that, though, is due to the FP situation. I pulled my first FP today at 8:50, right after they let people into the park (we were already in due to a H&V reservation and I was the third person at the FP machines) and the return time was 8:50-9:50. So, that prior 40 minute TSM window before the SB line is slowed down with FP returners no longer seems to exists, unfortunately. As soon as we were done with TSM, we went to the Sofia line. I got in line at 9:22 and we didn't meet Sofia until 10:00 (we were the last family before her first break). Despite the slow start, we did have a great day and got a lot done. But I just can't help but feel that the crowds were impeding our ability to get stuff done early in the day and that late-day touring was more beneficial.

 

[DawnM]

Yikes. We leave on Saturday to head down there. High crowds will not be fun.....

 

[sls404]

I agree with the op....

But I don't think it's any kind of incompetency (if that is a word...) on the part of Touring Plans or easywdw. I bet they are as surprised by the crowds as we are. But I am feeling pretty discouraged by it all...

Some people have magical times even when the crowds are crazy. I am SO envious of them! When we were younger, large crowds were kind of an "adventure" and it was easy to shrug them off. But it got old over time....and our planning became more strategic.

That's when we started to only go during the first two weeks of December...... and it was like Tink flew down and sprinkled us with buckets and buckets of pixie dust. Starting with our honeymoon, our trips ever since have been pure joy.

This will be our 7th December trip. But I think this will be our last. I'm convinced that finding a "low crowd" week from now on will be like closing your eyes, pointing at the calendar, and hoping for the best. They'll be there, but it will require more luck than planning.

With me, it's just part of getting older I think. Now I like to relax, take my time, and soak in the magic and beauty when I go to Disney. My DH and I have been Disney fanatics since we were in grade school (1960s......oh help..) growing up in Southern Ca. We always will be. But maybe it's time for us to let go of WDW.

I'm not angry about any of the changes.....Disney, as a business, is just doing exactly what it's supposed to do.

I'm just really sad.....

I've done early December, early May, and late October and found early May to be the best for crowds surprisingly!

 

[canoe86]

I don't mind planning meals months out. That at least is just based on an idea of what park, on what day etc.

But this FP+ planning, is well, INSANE. I can guarantee, GUARANTEE that we will not use some of the FP+ we reserved simply because it does not 'fit' how we do things. We have 4 kids, two who are young and the rule for us is, back to the room for a rest every day. SO, our normal EPCOT routine, is get a FP for Soarin in the morning for sometime hopefully before noon. Hit the spots we want, use FP, eat lunch and leave.

Shoot, now I don't dare at least try to get so FP+ that might fit our plans after seeing all the long line stories on here.

Trying to decide rides months out is crazy.

 

[wisblue]

I don't mind planning meals months out. That at least is just based on an idea of what park, on what day etc.

But this FP+ planning, is well, INSANE. I can guarantee, GUARANTEE that we will not use some of the FP+ we reserved simply because it does not 'fit' how we do things. We have 4 kids, two who are young and the rule for us is, back to the room for a rest every day. SO, our normal EPCOT routine, is get a FP for Soarin in the morning for sometime hopefully before noon. Hit the spots we want, use FP, eat lunch and leave.

Shoot, now I don't dare at least try to get so FP+ that might fit our plans after seeing all the long line stories on here.

Trying to decide rides months out is crazy.

Why wouldn't FP+ work for you as long as you can decide in advance what day to go to Epcot? You can get a FP reservation for Soarin for whatever slot you want before noon.

If you don't use your other FP reservations, it shouldn't matter. But, if there are other attractions you like at Epcot, you can get FPs for them too.

 

[scrappinannie]

Josh at easywdw commented in a post over the weekend that crowd predictions were WAY off. He said the crowds look more like Thanksgiving week than the low season. Anomalies happen.

As for FP+ making a difference in the length of lines, is it that they are issuing more Fastpasses? I can see them running out sooner because there are fewer in the kiosk system, but I wouldn't expect there to be a big change in line times unless more Fastpasses are being distributed overall than before. It could just be that a bunch of people decided to enjoy Disney in October this year, as Josh indicated above.

I think they are issuing LESS fast passes, thus forcing more people to ride standby. At least it feels that way. Many rides today had 60+ minute waits. We got lucky and did Princess Fairytale Hall right after our breakfast at CRT ( cause Belle was already at an hour wait by 9:30 when we finished). Only waited there about 20 minutes to see Rapunzel/Snow White, by the time we came out the wait jumped to 60 minutes and stayed there most of the day. By the time we left just after Wishes, it was at 110 minutes!! At 9:30 p.m.
We ended up doing Belle during Wishes just to avoid another morning rush when we go back to MK later in the week and waited about 10 minutes.

I have no experience with the new system, but am wondering if it is possible to go to the parks and enjoy a day without using the fast pass? I just don't want to have to do all that planning in advance, yet I'm concerned that we wouldn't be able to do much without using them. It sounds like we wouldn't even be able to find a decent spot to view the parades and firework. Am I right? Thanks in advance for your thoughts

Didn't have a problem with the parade today at MK. Walked right up to Main Street and sat down on the curb at about 2:30. We didn't watch Wishes tonight, though, so not sure how crowded that was, but judging from what we have seen in the parks so far, it was pretty crowded.

I think crowd calendars and touring plans will need to be reworked once MDE is all up and running cause I planned our trip well (or so I thought!) and nothing is as I expected it to be. Some good, some bad.

 

[disneyerin]

Just do not understand everyones stress levels with making some plans in advance. ?? You DON"T have to at all and you DON"T have to for everyday either ....maybe just one or two for sure days. Get those couple must sees and be as flexible as you want....it's ONLY 3 per park
As for crowd levels I think there are a lot of spoiled people out there. There have been large crowds since 1971.

Yes, but back in 1971 (up through a few years ago) you had a choice. You could choose low crowds, medium crowds, or crazy crowds. And then (if you had the flexibility)you could schedule your vacation accordingly. If low crowds were really, really important to you, you could schedule the first week of January, or October.....or December, and then relax about it.

Could anyone now, with any level of confidence, pick a week out of the year when they will have low crowds?

Spoiled? Does that mean we save up for 5yrs to have the best possible vacation, and then choose to go to our favorite place in the world, and actually be able to control things so we can have our week be relaxing and beautiful and magical and everything we could have hoped for?

I'm not sure I'd use the word "spoiled".......maybe "smart" is a better word.

Spoiled because we're complaining? Not really. I think we're just scared of losing something ( to be able to control whether or not we have a relaxing Disney vacation, or a crazy, intense, adventurous one) that has meant so much to us over the years. The anger is just a reaction to some of the other folks here telling us that we shouldn't feel what we are feeling.

We're all human.....we find it hard to let go of things that we love.....it really isn't any more complicated than that.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

Not sure I'd go so far as saying easywdw "could not be more WRONG!" The crowd level could have been a 1 or a 10, both of which would be more WRONG. It sounds like you went to Magic Kingdom on October 23rd. According to the crowd calendar for that date:

Magic Kingdom is tentatively recommended, though this will be the third busiest day of the week there. We have longer hours of operation and two Electrical Parade, both of which are popular with on-site and off-site guests alike. With no Electrical Parade scheduled yesterday and not another until Saturday, today will be more popular than either of the next two days. Anyone who wants to see Main Street Electrical Parade and doesn’t have Park Hopper (and many that do) will have to spend most of their day at the Magic Kingdom in order to see the Parade at night. While the Magic Kingdom may be busier than other days this week, many people do want to see the Parade and Wishes Fireworks show and this is your best opportunity to do both. Ideally, you would Park Hop over to Magic Kingdom in the late afternoon or early evening, after spending the majority of your day at a Park that’s recommended higher. This way, you can enjoy short lines and low crowds and still see the Magic Kingdom’s nighttime spectaculars. Without Park Hopper, you’ll want to arrive prior to 9am and head straight for the priorities on your itinerary. The 9am to 11am timeframe is always the best time to tour, regardless of overall crowd level or what day you visit. You’ll be able to get a lot done in those first two or three hours, but crowds will begin to build around 11am and will continue to be moderately heavy until the end of the night. Plan to move on to some of the less popular attractions in the afternoon and/or take a lengthy afternoon break when crowds are at their highest. You can then return to the Magic Kingdom around 6pm for dinner, Main Street Electrical Parade, and Wishes. This is always the second best plan of attack (second to only the evening Park Hop) when you’re trying to see evening shows that aren’t scheduled often enough. Overall, Magic Kingdom is recommended if you tour during the recommended times and make efficient use of the morning and FASTPASS. It will be more crowded in the afternoon than several other days this week. You’ll want to visit on a Mickey’s Party date if all you care about is low crowds. For the Main Street Electrical Parade, stake out a spot along the Parade route in Frontierland or Liberty Square for the 10pm Parade. Both areas are significantly less crowded than Main Street and the later Parade is less crowded because so many families leave immediately after Wishes, if they even make it that far.

That is absolutely accurate.

The "3" for that day is not saying every park is going to be a "3" that day. The explanation of that number is:

The fourth line is an estimation of the overall crowd level. A “5″ refers to average crowds. Numbers above 5 refer to a larger than average overall crowd level and numbers below 5 refer to lower than average overall crowds. A day with an overall crowd level of “1″ means that the crowds are expected to be the absolute lowest of the year and a “10″ means crowds are expected to be at their largest of the year. In other words, the overall crowd level estimation will give you an idea of how many people are in the entire Disney World complex, including the four major theme parks, water parks, Downtown Disney, golf courses, resorts, etc. Individual theme parks can have smaller or larger crowds than the overall estimation, which is where the theme park recommendations come in.

I won't have actual numbers for this week until the first week in November, but wait times this week have been lower than the last two weeks, when the overall crowd level was higher. And wait times this week are much, much lower than the summer with crowd levels of 7, 8, and 9. And they are much higher than September, with crowd levels mostly 1 and 2.

So you're left with a crowd level in the 3 to 4 range, which is what you see this week.

Just because crowds are higher than you've experienced in the past or higher than you'd like them to be does not automatically make the crowd projections "wrong."

There is a post on the site a couple days ago about "the new normal."

We're all experiencing that these days, but to put the crowd level any higher (it sounds like the insinutation is that the crowd level is a 6+) would be disingenuous as crowds are far lower than the summer.

There are some other oddities these days with Disney messing with the legacy FASTPASS machines in addition to all Disney owned resorts distributing MagicBands with access to FP+ beginning just three days ago.

That's having an effect on posted standby waits as well, which may very well not be accurate whatsoever.

As far as Stitch, there are two default wait times. It's usually ten minutes but if only one of the two theaters is operating, it could be moved up to 20 minutes.

But yes, Magic Kingdom in the heart of Mickey's Party season is not particularly pleasant on a non-party date.

Edit: Meant October 23rd.

 

[DPCummerbund]

Even assuming that you're just talking about ride wait times and not overall park "crowds", the fastpass system itself - or Fastpass+, or any adjustments to it - CAN'T be the reason that wait times are longer.

Fastpass CAN correlate to the difference between standby and Fastpass lines, but wait times overall are a factor of how many people are in the park & how many lanes, theaters, etc. are open for each ride.

Say, for example, under "normal" circumstances the Fastpass wait time is 20 minutes, but the standby time is 45 minutes. Disney changes the Fastpass system, and now standby is an hour, but Fastpass is only 5 minutes. Overall, your wait times & the total number of rides you get to experience in a day isn't going to change - it just changes which lines happen to be longer for you.

Look at it this way - if 1000 people are headed towards Space Mountain, it doesn't matter what percentage of them are in which line (standby vs fastpass) - if Space Mountain can process 1000 people in an hour, then it's going to take an hour to get all 1000 people through, regardless of which line they're in. It doesn't matter whether 800 are standby and 200 are Fastpass, or 500 are standby and 500 are Fastpass, or whatever.

MK attendance, overall, doesn't appear to be going up drastically - maybe 2% per year. So, either A) Disney is reducing ride capacities by shutting down lines, or B) people are going at different times of the year, & you're just experiencing crowds that you didn't expect.

So, if you're thinking about skipping Disney next year because the Fastpasses are making you wait longer, think again, because it's just not true. It can't be.

 

[magicbob]

There is a trend toward fall breaks now in some school districts, apparently. I read that most Florida schools have a week long fall break in October. That could definitely have affected the crowds you are seeing. I know spring breaks really bump up the numbers in March & April. Just a thought. It really is true that there isn't a "low attendance" time anymore. Just crowded and CRAZYcrowded!!

Many schools in he Midwest have instituted a fall break though which is affecting park attendance.

But I don't think it's any kind of incompetency (if that is a word...) on the part of Touring Plans or easywdw. I bet they are as surprised by the crowds as we are.

Regardless of which schools have Fall breaks, shouldn't a professional "crowd prediction" operation have known about that and taken it into account in predicting the crowds? I won't go as far as to label it "incompetence" but they should not be surprised by these circumstances when it's their business to create these prediction models.

 

[ohboyx3]

I agree. I can't believe how crowded it is. We are ready to try something else too. Really makes me sad to even say that.

 

[ohboyx3]

I tried to change a Fastpasses selection at 10 am for one later in the day and couldn't believe they were already distributed. We have done more things like the waterparks and mini golf to try and escape crowds.... We were going to go to a park this evening..., but I think I decided to skip it. Just don't feel like fighting crowds. Last night waiting to load the ferry at MK it was literally shoulder to shoulder. First time I ever feared getting trampled at Disney!