NEW VGF Building

[Matty B13]

Assuming they use the same categories, adding a bunch of studios would free up the lockoffs. That's 94 bookable 2BRs now!

This is the big "IF" they are all the same booking categories...... if not all the 2 bedroom lock-offs are going to end up 1 bedroom and a studio because they will be the cheaper studios at VGF.

 

[TCRAIG]

I am not sure about this. DVC owners (even those who buy VGF) always flock to the cheapest rooms. If the Resort Studios are more points per night, then getting a "normal" studio will be difficult. That's my guess anyway. Think about how Boardwalk and BLT standard rooms are gone the quickest. If I owned VGF, I would be upset. You now have ~1.75MM more points going after the cheapest studios, which will in turn take out of circulation many of the lock-off 2BR.

As long as they’re not going after my 1Br STD view - I’m good - but that’s my fear - if Resort Studios are closer in Pts to 1Br - will new owners just spring for 1Br and a couple days shorter stay?

 

[prs_14]

There's only two categories, lake and standard, and all 47 studios are lockoffs. Once the studio is gone, the lockoff is gone. VGF has 47 dedicated 2BR and 47 lock off. Assuming they use the same categories, adding a bunch of studios would free up the lockoffs. That's 94 bookable 2BRs now!

Sorry - I missed your "assuming the same categories" stipulation. I am guessing that the new studios will be in a new category and also that they will be more expensive per night and, because of that, this new sale process will increase the number of VGF points, but *not* increase the number of cheap studios (which I believe all VGF owners will gravitate towards). If getting one of the lockoff studios was hard before, I believe it will now become harder. Plus, any new VGF buyers that want 1BR, 2BR or 3BR will also serve to put more pressure on those categories because again - more points out there and no increase in supply.

 

[AvidDisReader]

At 1.5m points x $200pp, that is a $300 million in sales plus $12 million a year in annual dues ($480 million over 40 years) for something that will expire in 40 years, this is a huge win for Disney

So many are overthinking this. With COVID Disney is need of some large cash influxes. As the math above shows they will make close to $ 300million on a nice safe new DVC, a proven winner. There is no trick about resale restrictions, this is just, for a lack of a better phrase, a money grab.

 

[stwaldman]

So many are overthinking this. With COVID Disney is need of some large cash influxes. As the math above shows they will make close to $ 300million on a nice safe new DVC, a proven winner. There is no trick about resale restrictions, this is just, for a lack of a better phrase, a money grab.

Overthinking? On these boards? Never!

 

[AKNOTTS66]

This is the big "IF" they are all the same booking categories...... if not all the 2 bedroom lock-offs are going to end up 1 bedroom and a studio because they will be the cheaper studios at VGF.

Very very true. This seems like its going to hurt original owners in the long run that didn't book studios. Which most of them bought VGF because Poly didn't have anything but Bungalows and Studios.

 

[rick1zoo2]

I am wondering when the expansion rooms would be available to book - 11 months out for current VGF owners would be sometime this summer?

 

[prs_14]

As long as they’re not going after my 1Br STD view - I’m good - but that’s my fear - if Resort Studios are closer in Pts to 1Br - will new owners just spring for 1Br and a couple days shorter stay?

I think you are in a relatively safe position. I am guessing that folks will go to the Resort Studios before they go to 1BR. Every point counts and everyone wants the cheapest per point room.

 

[Brian Noble]

I'm not so convinced about that.

My take: this is the group that drafted the legislation forming RCID, and that legislation was eventually passed and signed into law with essentially no edits on the part of the Florida legislature. As a result, Disney is a private company that controls its very own municipal government---the only "residents" of (and hence voters in) RCID are Disney employees.

That's pretty creative.

Having your own government is convenient. One part that most people know: Disney wrote their own building codes (the "EPCOT" Codes) for structures within RCID. A part that many people don't know: they are able to offer tax-free "municipal" bonds to pay for infrastructure within the District (and from which only Disney benefits). Because they are tax-free, Disney can pay a lower rate of return than they would otherwise.

For those interested: Fogelsong's excellent book "Married to the Mouse" talks about all of this and a lot more.

 

[RoseGold]

As long as they’re not going after my 1Br STD view - I’m good - but that’s my fear - if Resort Studios are closer in Pts to 1Br - will new owners just spring for 1Br and a couple days shorter stay?

If they use existing categories, the 1BRs could get gobbled by the lockoffs. The VGF 2BR is incredible. The VGF 1BR was always available because it was terrible point value, but also because they are all lockoff and the studios were always booked. You weren't able to get the 2BR lockoff to take the 1BR. If that changes, 1BR availability might be more limited.

 

[prs_14]

Yes, Saratoga when it went back on sale when more points were added to a sold out resort. According to https://www.dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-program/financial/1275-ssr-price-down-to-90-per-point, the direct price without incentives for SSR in 2010 was $90. This was after it had been "sold out" and priced at $104 in 2008.

Great data point. So there is at least some precedent for doing that. Although it looks like (based on that article) they reduced the headline price but did not offer any further incentives? So maybe keeping the direct price the same and offering some incentives would get buyers to the same place?

I think a headline reduction would still be a real thumb-to-the-eye for people who bought VGF direct contracts at $255/point last week. But, as you point out, there is precedent.

 

[Sandisw]

This is kind of my thinking now, even though I was considering selling SSR and buying some VGF2. 200 studios is a lot. And I like split stays, so it’s not like I’m trying to string together 7-10 days. I think it’ll also ease booking at PVB and BLT.

Even though I can’t use SSR at RIV due to resale restrictions, it seems like I’ll be able to use them at VGF. I’ll take the best of VGF1, VGF2, BLT, or PVB studios (god, that has to be close to 700 studios on the MK/monorail loop). I’ll then save my RIV points for my HS and Epcot days.

We are buying direct regardless because I love RIV and having restricted points simply does not work for us. Good news is that I can sell what I bought last year and break even which allows me to replace vs simply adding..which may happen too!

We also love Split stays and VGF and RIV will happen as often as I can get it to happen!

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

My take: this is the group that drafted the legislation forming RCID, and that legislation was eventually passed and signed into law with essentially no edits on the part of the Florida legislature. As a result, Disney is a private company that controls its very own municipal government---the only "residents" of (and hence voters in) RCID are Disney employees.

That's pretty creative.

Having your own government is convenient. One part that most people know: Disney wrote their own building codes (the "EPCOT" Codes) for structures within RCID. A part that many people don't know: they are able to offer tax-free "municipal" bonds to pay for infrastructure within the District (and from which only Disney benefits). Because they are tax-free, Disney can pay a lower rate of return than they would otherwise.

For those interested: Fogelsong's excellent book "Married to the Mouse" talks about all of this and a lot more.

I think that group is long gone if you know what I mean. And FL isn't the same anymore either.

 

[stwaldman]

I think that group is long gone if you know what I mean. And FL isn't the same anymore either.

What, you can't fly an unchartered plane under a fake name across the state to stake out underdeveloped real estate anymore?

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

Yes it would seem to be a new room class. Wondering if this will be a more basic room and more hotel like as opposed to the Deluxe Studio category. Would help to explain the rather quick timeframe to retro fit these rooms.

IIRC, there's already a mini-fridge under the TV in the resort rooms. That being the case, I wouldn't be shocked if they just add a little table with a microwave on it (drawer with utensils and a cabinet underneath for plates, cups, etc.).

BEFORE:
AFTER:

VOILA... "Resort Studio."



ETA: This would also account for the short timeline required.

 

[MICKIMINI]

What would be a radical incentive? Market "new" Grand Floridian Villas and bring back the DVC AP's with a bang at the same time! Free AP(s) with your DVC Grand Floridian purchase...marketing "gold" (pun intended)! In my dreams...

We just missed the free park tickets at DVC (OKW) when we bought in 1996...you've done it before so just try to be creative DVC, please?!

 

[nerdboyrockstar]

IIRC, there's already a mini-fridge under the TV in the resort rooms. That being the case, I wouldn't be shocked if they just add a little table with a microwave on it (drawer with utensils and a cabinet underneath for plates, cups, etc.).

BEFORE: View attachment 576477
AFTER: View attachment 576478

VOILA... "Resort Studio."

View attachment 576480

ETA: This would also account for the short timeline required.

My eyes literally went attribute to attribute before realizing it was only the microwave. I'm dying.

 

[Strimp]

This development brings up some interesting questions:
1 They are doing the conversion in just about a year. That sound incredibly quick to me considering they would need to build in a small fridge, microwave, sink, etc.
2 What does this say about Rivera sales? Will that resort be sold out then? Or are they feeling so much push-back from the restrictions there that they needed to add some non-restricted inventory?

2 is an interesting question.

I think there will be quite a few furious direct Riviera owners (myself included) who will not be too happy if they add a new addition to a resort that is not subject to resale restrictions. I can only imagine that would severely wound Riviera direct sales if competing head to head with a VGF that has no such restrictions. If VGF 2.0 comes online in 2022, I don't think Riviera will be anywhere near sold out by then.

This leads me to think that the direct price for VGF would be so inflated that new buyers would potentially have a serious value dilemma in determining which to purchase. VGF Restriction free, but possibly priced at $255.00 per point, or Riviera Direct with resale restrictions but priced over $55.00 per point lower. That could be a compelling and not an easy choice. Personally, I prefer Riviera to VGF, but am aware of the drawbacks especially in regards to the resale restrictions. I would be tempted to purchase VGF, but would probably double down on Riviera even with the restrictions if there was a $55 per point spread between the two.

Buckle up, this will be interesting.

 

[prs_14]

2 is an interesting question.

I think there will be quite a few furious direct Riviera owners (myself included) who will not be too happy if they add a new addition to a resort that is not subject to resale restrictions. I can only imagine that would severely wound Riviera direct sales if competing head to head with a VGF that has no such restrictions. If VGF 2.0 comes online in 2022, I don't think Riviera will be anywhere near sold out by then.

This leads me to think that the direct price for VGF would be so inflated that new buyers would potentially have a serious value dilemma in determining which to purchase. VGF Restriction free, but possibly priced at $255.00 per point, or Riviera Direct with resale restrictions but priced over $55.00 per point lower. That could be a compelling and not an easy choice. Personally, I prefer Riviera to VGF, but am aware of the drawbacks especially in regards to the resale restrictions. I would be tempted to purchase VGF, but would probably double down on Riviera even with the restrictions if there was a $55 per point spread between the two.

Buckle up, this will be interesting.

Not to mention the fact that Riviera will have 6 more years on the contract.

But, to be fair, you always had the choice to buy VGF direct with no resale restrictions. Agree that this now has more of a spotlight on it, but there are a lot of people who have chosen in the last year or so to buy direct at one of the original 14 resorts instead of at Riviera. I think, over the long term, Disney will slowly but surely reduce the value of resale relative to direct. Disney will then opportunistically ROFR contracts back at lower prices and be quite content to resell them at the then-direct price. More profitable than selling a new resort? No. But I think a key perk/benefit to DVC is being able to stay in many different resorts. In the long term, when you can only stay in one resort by buying resale, a lot of people will choose to buy direct instead.

 

[stlrod]

GrumpyByBirth--you definitely earned your name! That was hilarious!