Park Reservation Availability vs Crowd Calendar

[andee515]

Just perusing my plans prior to departure this Friday... Disney has MK sold out Sat/Sun and no availability except Epcot the rest of the week, but crowd calendar is 6 across the board, somebody is fibbing....

 

[nikem3]

I don't know exactly how they calculate crowd calendars, but I believe its mostly off previous year's data. However, I can say that Disney has been extremely crowded lately. In fact, every park in Orlando has been.

 

[mom2diskids]

Just perusing my plans prior to departure this Friday... Disney has MK sold out Sat/Sun and no availability except Epcot the rest of the week, but crowd calendar is 6 across the board, somebody is fibbing....

Crowd calendars are just a forecast, “guess”, by an individual or company trying to get clicks on their websites and their guesses seem to be even more unreliable post COVID reopening.

 

[andee515]

Sure they are predictions, but touring plan updates with new info. They now have up to date info on crowd calendar of resort and park availability, but I am assuming don't have metrics in place to utilize data yet?

 

[_19disnA]

Doubt that Disney shares their park reservation data or future hotel booking information with any 3rd party. Anyone can guess/forecast/predict the future of just about anything, but doesn't mean it is reliable or something you should depend upon. Before Disney started with the park reservation thing, even they had no idea how many locals with AP's would suddenly decide to show up some day.

It is a bit like trying to forecast where the price of a stock will go in the future by looking at historical data.

 

[Westerner]

Just perusing my plans prior to departure this Friday... Disney has MK sold out Sat/Sun and no availability except Epcot the rest of the week, but crowd calendar is 6 across the board, somebody is fibbing...

It's a new world, crowd calendar doesn't mean that much anymore.

WDW ride capacity is not a fixed amount, but something dynamic that allows Disney to align staffing and hours with demand. Most days "sell out" eventually in the reservation system making it of little use in trying to predict guest experience.

What does this mean practically speaking?

• Reduced guest ability to arbitrage by going during traditionally low-crowd times (eg Jan)
• Conversely, going during holidays is better than it used to be, b/c Disney caps # of guests, extends hours, and staffs up.
• From a guest perspective, it's ride wait times that matter, not crowd level per se.
• Day of week that you go may be more important than month of year. Wait times and LL availability are consistently better on weekends at some parks than weekdays.

 

[andee515]

Doubt that Disney shares their park reservation data or future hotel booking information with any 3rd party. Anyone can guess/forecast/predict the future of just about anything, but doesn't mean it is reliable or something you should depend upon. Before Disney started with the park reservation thing, even they had no idea how many locals with AP's would suddenly decide to show up some day.

It is a bit like trying to forecast where the price of a stock will go in the future by looking at historical data.

I believe they are just pulling publicly available info from disney website which indicates whether they are sold out

 

[RoseGold]

There's a theory that the AP lawsuit in California is impacting how they are letting in APs right now. You can see that in some places, AP has better access than day tickets.

 

[kathy884]

Our sold out park days at Epcot and the MK this past week showed actual crowd levels of 8 on touringplans.com. It was crowded and lines were long (needed Genie +) for rides, but it definitely didn't feel anything at all like crowds between Christmas and New Year's for example (I've been five different Christmas weeks and crowds then were insane.) It makes me think that maybe attendance is being limited more than in the past pre-Covid.

Crazy busy and long lines yes on sold out days - but insane crazy busy like Christmas weeks of past - not even close.

Staffing might me limiting how many people they can accept??

 

[soniam]

Our sold out park days at Epcot and the MK this past week showed actual crowd levels of 8 on touringplans.com. It was crowded and lines were long (needed Genie +) for rides, but it definitely didn't feel anything at all like crowds between Christmas and New Year's for example (I've been five different Christmas weeks and crowds then were insane.) It makes me think that maybe attendance is being limited more than in the past pre-Covid.

Crazy busy and long lines yes on sold out days - but insane crazy busy like Christmas weeks of past - not even close.

Staffing might me limiting how many people they can accept??

I think those times would have typically been a 9 or 10 for Touring Plans. I agree though. Thanksgiving week wasn't as crowded this year as 2018. Thanksgiving week had sold out days pretty early.

 

[Sweettears]

Having all reservations booked is not the same thing as being sold out in the prereservation days.

 

[bbeagle]

Wow. Just checked calendar availability. Magic Kingdom is 'sold out' every day until April 23.

 

[TheSouthernBelle]

Just perusing my plans prior to departure this Friday... Disney has MK sold out Sat/Sun and no availability except Epcot the rest of the week, but crowd calendar is 6 across the board, somebody is fibbing....

Do not pay attention to the crowd calendar or the park pass system. Neither is indicative of crowds since nobody knows what "capacity" is considered by Disney and the crowd calendars are just educated guesses. A 6 in post covid times can feel like a 10 day. Just know you're going during spring break and it will be busy. All the parks have been very busy and will be for a while. I will be going after Easter and fully expect it to still be extremely crowded as it's been.

 

[barbarabini]

Wow. Just checked calendar availability. Magic Kingdom is 'sold out' every day until April 23.

Yeah. thats the week Im going. I cant get another day at MK. Blech.

 

[bbeagle]

Yeah. thats the week Im going. I cant get another day at MK. Blech.

I feel you. You can’t get any more MORNINGS at MK, but you can go there after 2:00

maybe someone can start a business where you can swap magic bands for a day so someone who chose MK, but really wants to go to HS can swap someone that wants the exact opposite.

 

[torchlight]

I feel you. You can’t get any more MORNINGS at MK, but you can go there after 2:00

maybe someone can start a business where you can swap magic bands for a day so someone who chose MK, but really wants to go to HS can swap someone that wants the exact opposite.

Good idea. Let me know when you also figure out how to swap fingerprints.

 

[barbarabini]

Yeah... only if I want to spend another 500 or so on park hoppers. I think im at my limits with ticket prices and ad ons.
I should have gone to Turks and Caicos.

 

[Sweettears]

Yeah... only if I want to spend another 500 or so on park hoppers. I think im at my limits with ticket prices and ad ons.
I should have gone to Turks and Caicos.

How long is the wait there for FOP?