Please help Me Think Through This

[HopperFan]

In 2019, Presidents' Day is late. Would earlier in the month for 2019 make more sense?

We would either do like the 2nd week in May or Feb 5 - 12.

Well .... we are right in the middle of that Feb time frame so randomly check MDE for wait times. That might give you an idea .......... And it has been randomly cold and rainy this year.

My issues with early February is that is full blown big tour group season. School is out during January to around the third week of February, with the middle weeks tending to have an overlap of guests from two regions. I have gone 3rd week of Jan 5 of the last 6 years. I have tried the first week of Feb but found it to be crowded and that was low crowd years. When I bumped my trip to third week of February it was a drastic change in the crowds and there were virtually no large groups.

Any given year the February "slow" weeks are a gamble, due to international travelers. I think as they were less, Disney added the Arts Festival to fill all the weeks ........... but this year I would say the international travelers (this is their big "summer/winter" break) were back. We go this time of year because we have APs and like to go every few months but avoid Christmas when we can ... so by January we are antsy to go.

Probably my very favorite time of year is May and we have done it MANY years, all different weeks. Most folks won't pull their kids out of school that month, while there are some cheer groups overall the school groups are not there, Flower & Garden is my favorite festival, the weather is warm but not usually stifling hot (and not cold as it's been lately) yet and we aren't in to hurricane season yet. And next year I wonder how many will delay their trips to the end of the year to try to box in a SWL trip.

I would be all over a second week in May. There will be big cheer competitions the first two weekends but I've never had them impact the parks. It very well could dictate where I stay ....... which would be NOT Allstars for sure and preferably a moderate or deluxe.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

I am not reading into anything, just responding to what you posted..."The main goal is to book a trip with lower crowds. (specific request of one of the members of the party for this part of the family to go)" but I'm telling you there really isn't such a thing as "lower" crowds anymore. If it's a medical issue, then I would be even more inclined to recommend they not go. It's one thing to be annoyed because of crowds, it's a whole other to risk a medical emergency. As you said, I do not know his history. Crowd levels anymore are just a "crap shoot." Sometimes you get lucky, but usually its a madhouse regardless of the time of year. I meant no offense...

No offense taken on my part. Your post was very helpful.

 

[10CJ]

I would avoid Nov because if Stars Wars is open I think there will be crowds at all the parks.

I would lean towards May over Feb.

 

[TXAKDisneyFan]

A lot of schools (particularly in the northeast) also have Feb break. (Our old district generally had it the week of President’s day.)

 

[srwarden1928]

I went to WDW in November 2017 and found it a wonderful time of year to be there. I thought about going in May, but there were no value rooms to be had. February is out for me because of church considerations.

 

[Dug720]

In 2019, Presidents' Day is late. Would earlier in the month for 2019 make more sense?

We would either do like the 2nd week in May or Feb 5 - 12.

It actually starts one day earlier than this year - by date anyway.

Presidents' Week is always the third week of February because Presidents' Day is the third Monday of February. It's not movable like Easter.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

IMO saying that picking one time of the year over another is pointless or that you can’t tell the difference between moderate crowds and large crowds is pretty silly. We go first week of May. It’s not slow but moderate. On our last trip, the last day at MK was a CL 8. The rest of the week was 4-6. It was noticeable busier the 8 day. It was busier to the point that I wanted to leave for an afternoon break because FP were scarce, people mover had a line, and even Sorcerors of the Magic kingdom had people backed up waiting at portals. But it was one day and I knew it would be busier (MK on a Sat). We were there with bro and SIL who went during spring break previously. It was like that every day for them. There is no a guaranteed slow time anymore but there are still differences.

OP, you’re looking at the right times of year to up your chances of having more manageable days. You should be prepared for days that are still really busy but the times your looking to go you will probably also have days that are less busy. Just know they are normal theme park busy still on those days, not walk on low crowds.

I would go with Feb or May for the reasons pps have said.

 

[brockash]

I am planning a trip for 2019 (next year, not this year)

I am vacillating between February, May and November.

The main goal is to book a trip with lower crowds. (specific request of one of the members of the party for this part of the family to go) I am not concerned about decorations, events, parties, etc. Just lower crowds.

I know in years past, these 3 months have had some great days, but the economy is doing so much better and as a result, there are not any "slow times" like there once was. Also, with the opening of Toy Story and Star Wars in Disney Studios, I feel that the crowds will be greatly impacted during that time. The Christmas parties for 2017, as well as the parks in general, were busier than expected in early December. Could have been vacations being re-booked because of the hurricanes or because Disney sold more tickets than normal, but I think things are just picking up.

So here is what I am trying to think through....

Feb 2019 could be impacted by the opening of Toy Story
May 2019 could be impacted by the opening of Toy Story and the Flower and Garden Festival.
November could be impacted by the opening of Toy Story, Star Wars and the Christmas party.

What was considered slower times may not be slower once these new areas open in these parks. I know some people think only DS will be impacted, but I doubt that. I am pretty sure all of the parks will feel the impact.

May I have the thoughts of the experts? I know some of you are there all of the time.

I think it really depends what days/week you're planning on in those months. The first week or 2 of May is pretty different than the end/Memorial Day week. The week of Thanksgiving is very different than the first week of Nov. The beginning of Feb is different than the end/winter break/presidents day week.

Can you go anytime in those,months? If so I'd do the first or second week of May for crowds and weather.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

It actually starts one day earlier than this year - by date anyway.

Presidents' Week is always the third week of February because Presidents' Day is the third Monday of February. It's not movable like Easter.

Right. To me, the third week is late in the month.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

IMO saying that picking one time of the year over another is pointless or that you can’t tell the difference between moderate crowds and large crowds is pretty silly. We go first week of May. It’s not slow but moderate. On our last trip, the last day at MK was a CL 8. The rest of the week was 4-6. It was noticeable busier the 8 day. It was busier to the point that I wanted to leave for an afternoon break because FP were scarce, people mover had a line, and even Sorcerors of the Magic kingdom had people backed up waiting at portals. But it was one day and I knew it would be busier (MK on a Sat). We were there with bro and SIL who went during spring break previously. It was like that every day for them. There is no a guaranteed slow time anymore but there are still differences.

OP, you’re looking at the right times of year to up your chances of having more manageable days. You should be prepared for days that are still really busy but the times your looking to go you will probably also have days that are less busy. Just know they are normal theme park busy still on those days, not walk on low crowds.

I would go with Feb or May for the reasons pps have said.

Helpful post. Thank you. I think, after reading Hopper's last comments, that May is going to be the better choice. We were there this past December and the people from South America were obnoxious! If they come in droves in February, that might be more than I can take. LOL

 

[Tomh]

IMO saying that picking one time of the year over another is pointless or that you can’t tell the difference between moderate crowds and large crowds is pretty silly. We go first week of May. It’s not slow but moderate. On our last trip, the last day at MK was a CL 8. The rest of the week was 4-6. It was noticeable busier the 8 day. It was busier to the point that I wanted to leave for an afternoon break because FP were scarce, people mover had a line, and even Sorcerors of the Magic kingdom had people backed up waiting at portals. But it was one day and I knew it would be busier (MK on a Sat). We were there with bro and SIL who went during spring break previously. It was like that every day for them. There is no a guaranteed slow time anymore but there are still differences.

OP, you’re looking at the right times of year to up your chances of having more manageable days. You should be prepared for days that are still really busy but the times your looking to go you will probably also have days that are less busy. Just know they are normal theme park busy still on those days, not walk on low crowds.

I would go with Feb or May for the reasons pps have said.

We go in late August. Crowd level predictions generally are 8 or 9 for the beginning of our trip, and often taper down to 6, 5, and even 4 once in a while toward the end of our stay. The past few years, I would be hard pressed to say that we experienced anything that I would even remotely call a 5. As you described up above, we have regularly seen long lines for the People Mover (thankfully, they always move fast) and even had to wait in lines, sometimes 3 or 4 deep for portals for Sorcerers of the Magic Kingdom.

My take on it is that certainly, there is a difference between a crowd level of 4, and a crowd level of 8 or 9, but the predictions are very hit and miss, and days that are predicted to be 4 or 5 can easily wind up being 8 or 9, so picking when you are going to go based on the crowd predictions is questionable, and especially if the crowd levels are really critical for you.

Of course, we do pay attention to crowd predictions, but mostly for what park is expected to be busiest on a given day, and even then, we just use this as a guide. We know full well that the park which is predicted to be the best could well end up being a mad house.

 

[Dug720]

Right. To me, the third week is late in the month.

But it’s no later than usual. (The first post I quoted read as if it was later in 2019 than usual.)

 

[chicagoshannon]

I'd go 2nd week of May. Next year Easter is late April so school could still be on spring break the first few days of May. So far this year, February has been crazy busy. That combined with the unpredictable weather (could be really cold) I'd choose May. In May it will be warm and the crowds shouldn't be any worse, and might be better, than Feb.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

But it’s no later than usual. (The first post I quoted read as if it was later in 2019 than usual.)

Just bad word choice on my part

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

I'd go 2nd week of May. Next year Easter is late April so school could still be on spring break the first few days of May. So far this year, February has been crazy busy. That combined with the unpredictable weather (could be really cold) I'd choose May. In May it will be warm and the crowds shouldn't be any worse, and might be better, than Feb.

I think that is what I am leaning towards now, simply because of the tour groups. My wife hates humidity (she likes family pictures and she says she feels dirty), but I think we may have to deal with it for that trip.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

Well .... we are right in the middle of that Feb time frame so randomly check MDE for wait times. That might give you an idea .......... And it has been randomly cold and rainy this year.

My issues with early February is that is full blown big tour group season. School is out during January to around the third week of February, with the middle weeks tending to have an overlap of guests from two regions. I have gone 3rd week of Jan 5 of the last 6 years. I have tried the first week of Feb but found it to be crowded and that was low crowd years. When I bumped my trip to third week of February it was a drastic change in the crowds and there were virtually no large groups.

Any given year the February "slow" weeks are a gamble, due to international travelers. I think as they were less, Disney added the Arts Festival to fill all the weeks ........... but this year I would say the international travelers (this is their big "summer/winter" break) were back. We go this time of year because we have APs and like to go every few months but avoid Christmas when we can ... so by January we are antsy to go.

Probably my very favorite time of year is May and we have done it MANY years, all different weeks. Most folks won't pull their kids out of school that month, while there are some cheer groups overall the school groups are not there, Flower & Garden is my favorite festival, the weather is warm but not usually stifling hot (and not cold as it's been lately) yet and we aren't in to hurricane season yet. And next year I wonder how many will delay their trips to the end of the year to try to box in a SWL trip.

I would be all over a second week in May. There will be big cheer competitions the first two weekends but I've never had them impact the parks. It very well could dictate where I stay ....... which would be NOT Allstars for sure and preferably a moderate or deluxe.

You comments are always helpful and I appreciate that. I think May is going to be the way to go. You had me at Tour Groups.
I recall going in January many years ago and they were in packs of 100 - 200 with their flags. They were everywhere. We went to that Light, Motor, Action show and about 500 of them came in at one time chanting something anti-USA.
My daughter said "they should build a Disney in Brazil, dad"

 

[HopperFan]

You comments are always helpful and I appreciate that. I think May is going to be the way to go. You had me at Tour Groups.
I recall going in January many years ago and they were in packs of 100 - 200 with their flags. They were everywhere. We went to that Light, Motor, Action show and about 500 of them came in at one time chanting something anti-USA.
My daughter said "they should build a Disney in Brazil, dad"

I will say there were less of the kid groups and many more of the family tour groups this winter ... but an increase overall of the tour groups from last winter .... so my guess was their economics are better. BUT we spent little time at Magic Kingdom most our time at AK and Epcot. I saw at DHS but we skipped the shows and Fantasmic, so maybe we just kept missing them.

I think that is what I am leaning towards now, simply because of the tour groups. My wife hates humidity (she likes family pictures and she says she feels dirty), but I think we may have to deal with it for that trip.

I hear her .......... and that is one reason I DON'T like the winter trips. We are usually wearing light jackets or someone tosses on a sweat jacket ....... and we look "junky" for pictures. In May I make an effort for some nicer tshirts, colors or theme (like everyone pick a good AK shirt or sometimes at DHS boys do SW tshirts and I'll wear white or matching color) but not necessarily matching ........... just so our pictures look nice. Easier in warmer weather.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

I hear her .......... and that is one reason I DON'T like the winter trips. We are usually wearing light jackets or someone tosses on a sweat jacket ....... and we look "junky" for pictures. In May I make an effort for some nicer tshirts, colors or theme (like everyone pick a good AK shirt or sometimes at DHS boys do SW tshirts and I'll wear white or matching color) but not necessarily matching ........... just so our pictures look nice. Easier in warmer weather.

We were considering January, because we thought the crowds might be lower than February, but I read that Jan is the coldest month in Florida and she was worried she might have to dress like the Michelin man. LOL

 

[absolutmey]

We were considering January, because we thought the crowds might be lower than February, but I read that Jan is the coldest month in Florida and she was worried she might have to dress like the Michelin man. LOL

As you consider January & February, also remember that there are two weekends that see higher crowd levels due to runDisney races - WDW Marathon in Jan. and Princess Half in Feb. While these don't make the parks crazy busy, they do affect levels as well as other things like resort and ADR availability.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

Well .... we are right in the middle of that Feb time frame so randomly check MDE for wait times.

BEST......ADVICE.....EVER!!!!!


I have been watching for the last 3 days and the wait times in MK are ridiculous! Random times of the day, 90 mins for peter pan, 70 minutes for pirates, 40 minutes for barnstormer.

Wish I would have done during January as well. But....I read that the crowds were unusually high.