Poll: Are you going to buy at Riviera

[crvetter]

But do they consider a low resale value a mistake worth reversing? And would the "reversal" come in time for me? That is what is holding me back. I have to consider future resale values because of our ages. Not quite as important for younger buyers.

That’s true. Though I’m not holding out for a reversal, since with the sunk cost mentality it doesn’t matter too much in my decision process. But it’s an interesting response from DVC because it basically absolves them from having to fix the issue before it becomes an issue, since they would immediately correct it in one broad stroke IF they removed resale restrictions.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

On other boards, I have absolutely seen non-DVC owners considering Riviera who believe that resale will stay high even with the restriction because "Disney won't let it go that low!"

Which... they will. They buy it themselves for whatever low rate you manage in the market. They won't top off or give you extra to try to support higher value. I think there's a disconnect, with these folks, how ROFR supports resale prices. If Disney tries to force it to a price the market doesn't want to pay, it doesn't actually work.

The last few resorts have managed to hit that point where you're not getting the bulk of your capital back if you sell. I don't see the Riviera restriction changing this in any way. VGF and Poly are more desirable by their natures, I think - they're iconic and classic resorts. And they can't support resale pricing to the level of what most buyers paid direct. Riviera lacks those charms, and now has the restrictions.

 

[TexasChick123]

The other thing that I think everyone is glossing over is this: What if the resale value doesn’t drop? Most buyers, even resale buyers, aren’t on message boards reading all the doom and gloom. They buy where they want to stay and pay the “market rate”. MANY on here scoff at the BWV and BCV resale prices because of the 2042 expiration date, yet they continue to rise in price because there is demand there.

Does anyone really think VGC is priced the way it is because you can use it at the L14? How about VGF or BCV? I would say the ability to trade at 7-months has little to no value at some properties and is a HUGE component to the price at others (SSR and OKW). If you took away the ability to trade into other properties from VGF, would people care that much? How about if you took it away at SSR and OKW? That’s a different story. Will Riviera be as in demand as VGF, VGC, and BCV? I think it will which is why I purchased there, but others may not.

Another thing I keep seeing discussed is that you’ll lose your resale RR points if you can’t use them at RR because it’s so booked up in the home priority window, and you can’t book at any other resorts at 7 months? So, you think it’ll be so hard to book there that people won’t be able to use their points in their home window yet you also think all the L14 owners will have such great availability at 7 months that you can use your (fill in the blank with other direct or grandfathered points). It doesn’t work that way. It’s either one or the other. Either so few people buy direct that it’ll be wide open at 7 months for others, or it’ll create so much demand from owners that it’ll be tough to book even in the home window. Also, does no one adjust their plans when their dates aren’t available? I’ve never gone to book, seen my dates weren’t available at my home resort, and then said to myself, “I’ll just wait for the 7 month window and stay somewhere else.” I adjust my plans on either category, room size, and/or dates. Also, even the most sought after resorts where very few trade into other properties with those points are usually still available in some way, shape, or form at 11 months out. If I don’t book right at 11 months at BWV, I’m shut out of standard view rooms. It’s the same with BLT. How will this be any different? There are plenty of rooms, and you may have to book a more plentiful “preferred view” room if you’re not diligent. Welcome to DVC!

 

[skier_pete]

Does anyone really think VGC is priced the way it is because you can use it at the L14? How about VGF or BCV? I would say the ability to trade at 7-months has little to no value at some properties and is a HUGE component to the price at others (SSR and OKW). If you took away the ability to trade into other properties from VGF, would people care that much? How about if you took it away at SSR and OKW? That’s a different story. Will Riviera be as in demand as VGF, VGC, and BCV? I think it will which is why I purchased there, but others may not.!

But the examples you chose - VGF, VGC, and BCV have two things going - excellent locations and very small (DVC) resorts. You are correct that it's entirely about "supply and demand".

The supply side is easier to determine - as the more points at a resort, the more resale contracts are available. Riviera is looking at around 6.8 million points, versus 1.1 million at VGC, 2.5 million at VGF and 3.0 million at BCV. Even Poly is only 4 million points.

More comparable for supply side? BLT is 5.7 million. AKV is 7.5 million, OKW is 7.6 million. Including SSR - Riviera falls as the fourth largest of the resorts.
If we look at those resorts BLT is selling at $140 per point, AKV is around $110, SSR is $105 and OKW is around $100.
It also has a similar lease life to these resorts - yes 10 years longer, but 40 to 50 years won't matter as much to people.

But honestly, if we look at the demand side - we can get a pretty good feel that Riviera will not be on the AKV/SSR/OKW level of demand. It's location, while not a walk from a resort - would probably be higher than these 3 thanks to the gondola service.

So if Riviera didn't have ANY resale restrictions, we could probably easily predict from this that the demand would be similar or slightly below BLT's demand, since the point charts are similar as well. If Riviera were built 5 years ago, we would probably be looking at a resale price in the $125-135 dollar range. This makes sense also as a comparative to Boardwalk, which is currently running in a similar price range with a more desirable location and a longer contract life.

The BIG question mark though is "What will the resale restrictions do to Riviera's demand?" This is right now the ONLY resort that will block you from staying at ANY other DVC resort. This means buyers will have to really, really want to stay at DRR. Again using the comparable to BLT....I buy BLT resale, I can still go to VGF or BCV or BWV, or CCV or VGC or Aulani. I buy DRR I only have one spot - DRR. And even worse, the resort will likely be fairly popular, so people owning there will likely find themselves being shut out of the weeks that they want especially in fall frenzy. That reputation will hurt resale. I honestly would expect at least a $20 hit for resale.

SO, in the end, it really will be about whether people love the resort. But at the very, very best, I think you are looking at a high resale value of slightly above the AKV/SSR/OKW set, to somewhere slightly below these three. So looking to the future when the resort has been sold out for a few years, I think that's what you are looking at AKV/SSR/OKW values. I doubt it ever drops significantly lower than those resorts as the location is too good. So again, if DRR was 5 years old, I think we'd be looking at $100-115 per point. Since it's impossible to predict where DVC values will go in the next 5 years, I hesitate to guess real prices. (A true economic crisis could see all resorts drop $30-40 per point.)

 

[TexasChick123]

But the examples you chose - VGF, VGC, and BCV have two things going - excellent locations and very small (DVC) resorts. You are correct that it's entirely about "supply and demand".

The supply side is easier to determine - as the more points at a resort, the more resale contracts are available. Riviera is looking at around 6.8 million points, versus 1.1 million at VGC, 2.5 million at VGF and 3.0 million at BCV. Even Poly is only 4 million points.

More comparable for supply side? BLT is 5.7 million. AKV is 7.5 million, OKW is 7.6 million. Including SSR - Riviera falls as the fourth largest of the resorts.
If we look at those resorts BLT is selling at $140 per point, AKV is around $110, SSR is $105 and OKW is around $100.
It also has a similar lease life to these resorts - yes 10 years longer, but 40 to 50 years won't matter as much to people.

But honestly, if we look at the demand side - we can get a pretty good feel that Riviera will not be on the AKV/SSR/OKW level of demand. It's location, while not a walk from a resort - would probably be higher than these 3 thanks to the gondola service.

So if Riviera didn't have ANY resale restrictions, we could probably easily predict from this that the demand would be similar or slightly below BLT's demand, since the point charts are similar as well. If Riviera were built 5 years ago, we would probably be looking at a resale price in the $125-135 dollar range. This makes sense also as a comparative to Boardwalk, which is currently running in a similar price range with a more desirable location and a longer contract life.

The BIG question mark though is "What will the resale restrictions do to Riviera's demand?" This is right now the ONLY resort that will block you from staying at ANY other DVC resort. This means buyers will have to really, really want to stay at DRR. Again using the comparable to BLT....I buy BLT resale, I can still go to VGF or BCV or BWV, or CCV or VGC or Aulani. I buy DRR I only have one spot - DRR. And even worse, the resort will likely be fairly popular, so people owning there will likely find themselves being shut out of the weeks that they want especially in fall frenzy. That reputation will hurt resale. I honestly would expect at least a $20 hit for resale.

SO, in the end, it really will be about whether people love the resort. But at the very, very best, I think you are looking at a high resale value of slightly above the AKV/SSR/OKW set, to somewhere slightly below these three. So looking to the future when the resort has been sold out for a few years, I think that's what you are looking at AKV/SSR/OKW values. I doubt it ever drops significantly lower than those resorts as the location is too good. So again, if DRR was 5 years old, I think we'd be looking at $100-115 per point. Since it's impossible to predict where DVC values will go in the next 5 years, I hesitate to guess real prices. (A true economic crisis could see all resorts drop $30-40 per point.)

You’re talking about VGC, VGC, and BCV in regards to availability. I was referring to them in regards to how the restriction affects them if you can’t trade and had to stay there. I think Riviera will be on par with BLT for availability FTR, and I apologize if I didn’t make that clear.

 

[Madame]

The discussion about restrictions must include the possibility of DVC further restricting DRR resales(eg giving themselves the right to manipulate the resale booking window). It’s the uncertainty more than the restrictions that DRR buyers should be concerned about in regards to sale of their points in the future.

 

[skier_pete]

The discussion about restrictions must include the possibility of DVC further restricting DRR resales(eg giving themselves the right to manipulate the resale booking window). It’s the uncertainty more than the restrictions that DRR buyers should be concerned about in regards to sale of their points in the future.

This doesn't just apply to DRR but it affects them worse - but I agree we should most nervous about what ever other restrictions occur. I've said it elsewhere but if they ever changed it so new resale buyers can't book at their home resort until 10 months instaed of 11 months, this would be bad for everyone but it would be CRUSHING for Riviera. Imagine you buy a property resale that you aren't allowed to swap out of, and aren't allowed to book at 11 months until after all the other owners are allowed to book. Basically meaning you better be really flexible in your travel, cause you'll never get to go to Disney in Oct-Dec again.

 

[TexasChick123]

This doesn't just apply to DRR but it affects them worse - but I agree we should most nervous about what ever other restrictions occur. I've said it elsewhere but if they ever changed it so new resale buyers can't book at their home resort until 10 months instaed of 11 months, this would be bad for everyone but it would be CRUSHING for Riviera. Imagine you buy a property resale that you aren't allowed to swap out of, and aren't allowed to book at 11 months until after all the other owners are allowed to book. Basically meaning you better be really flexible in your travel, cause you'll never get to go to Disney in Oct-Dec again.

Or they could allow RR and newer resale owners the same 11 month window as direct and restrict all L14 resale going forward starting on “X” date to 10 months. It makes RR look better for resale in that regard and L14 look worse. The possibilities on what they could do in the future is endless.

 

[TexasChick123]

BTW, I own a lot of resale, so I certainly don’t want any more restrictions.

 

[Madame]

Or they could allow RR and newer resale owners the same 11 month window as direct and restrict all L14 resale going forward starting on “X” date to 10 months. It makes RR look better for resale in that regard and L14 look worse. The possibilities on what they could do in the future is endless.

Say they restrict all resales to a disadvantaged booking window. At least as an L14 resale owner I can book somewhere else if my resort fills up and I only have enough for a studio.

I might have been persuaded to buy resale DRR in the future if I liked it, but not with the restrictions AND the possibility of a restricted booking window too. Nope.

 

[skier_pete]

Say they restrict all resales to a disadvantaged booking window. At least as an L14 resale owner I can book somewhere else if my resort fills up and I only have enough for a studio.

I might have been persuaded to buy resale DRR in the future if I liked it, but not with the restrictions AND the possibility of a restricted booking window too. Nope.

The ONLY good news is they've NEVER retroactively restricted a resale owner. Once you own, the benefits shouldn't change. I'm pretty sure there are legal reasons they have to do this.

 

[LAX]

This doesn't just apply to DRR but it affects them worse - but I agree we should most nervous about what ever other restrictions occur. I've said it elsewhere but if they ever changed it so new resale buyers can't book at their home resort until 10 months instaed of 11 months, this would be bad for everyone but it would be CRUSHING for Riviera. Imagine you buy a property resale that you aren't allowed to swap out of, and aren't allowed to book at 11 months until after all the other owners are allowed to book. Basically meaning you better be really flexible in your travel, cause you'll never get to go to Disney in Oct-Dec again.

Even without this change, I can see the current "7-month window challenge" during certain times of the year play out at the 11-month window as the percentage of resale owners increases at DRR. Every resale owners there will know to book right at the 11-month window because they already know going in. Guess what will happen to those pixie-dusted direct owners who haven't done their research? They will be locked out of DRR and looking for "scraps" over at OKW/SSR at the 7-month window. Don't forget that even some of those "well-versed" resale owners will be locked out because there are just a finite number of villas available at a given time period. It will be interesting to see how this turns out at DRR in a couple of years. Of course, DRR will be mostly sold out by then and DVD/DD probably won't care at that time, just like how they are now to the L14 owners.

LAX

 

[ELMC]

The last few resorts have managed to hit that point where you're not getting the bulk of your capital back if you sell. I don't see the Riviera restriction changing this in any way. VGF and Poly are more desirable by their natures, I think - they're iconic and classic resorts. And they can't support resale pricing to the level of what most buyers paid direct. Riviera lacks those charms, and now has the restrictions.

This is the paradigm shift in DVC. It actually happened before these resorts around the time that SSR was $120 pp direct and I debated with someone on here if he would ever be able to get his money back if he decided to sell. Just about everyone saw it coming when BLT hit $165 a point. Think about it, we were appalled that DVC would ask that much for a resort that debuted around $100. Instead of backing off, Disney doubled down and is now charging $188 for new resorts and up to $260 for older ones. Where is the outrage that accompanied the $165 BLT point? It's gone. And now BLT is at $225 and nobody seems to care. But by comparison Riviera at $188 a point is a bargain and people are lining up to pay it. Kudos to Disney for a well executed marketing plan. But let's not forget that BLT dues opened at $3.67 per point. By comparison Riviera opened at $8.31. (The inflation adjusted number for BLT dues in 2009 is $4.29 FYI).

But back to your point. For me personally, this is where I get off the DVC bus. Listen, I love DVC. I love the accommodations, the booking procedure, the relative certainty it provides, and most of all I love going to Disney. But I just can't bring myself to lock myself in by buying a contract that I couldn't get out of at least close to whole if I needed to. That's my hang up, but it doesn't have to be everybody's, and I can respect that.

The discussion about restrictions must include the possibility of DVC further restricting DRR resales(eg giving themselves the right to manipulate the resale booking window). It’s the uncertainty more than the restrictions that DRR buyers should be concerned about in regards to sale of their points in the future.

Here's why people aren't going to be concerned. A timeshare is a "buy to use" expenditure. A lot of people aren't thinking about selling, or exit strategies. Riviera is a beautiful hotel. Disney is an incredible vacation destination. Buy the timeshare, stay at Disney, make memories and have a great time. That's what people are thinking about.

This doesn't just apply to DRR but it affects them worse - but I agree we should most nervous about what ever other restrictions occur. I've said it elsewhere but if they ever changed it so new resale buyers can't book at their home resort until 10 months instaed of 11 months, this would be bad for everyone but it would be CRUSHING for Riviera. Imagine you buy a property resale that you aren't allowed to swap out of, and aren't allowed to book at 11 months until after all the other owners are allowed to book. Basically meaning you better be really flexible in your travel, cause you'll never get to go to Disney in Oct-Dec again.

Or else you'd better get VERY good at walking...

 

[CarolMN]

............But back to your point. For me personally, this is where I get off the DVC bus. Listen, I love DVC. I love the accommodations, the booking procedure, the relative certainty it provides, and most of all I love going to Disney. But I just can't bring myself to lock myself in by buying a contract that I couldn't get out of at least close to whole if I needed to. That's my hang up, but it doesn't have to be everybody's, and I can respect that. .............

DVC is an anomaly in the timeshare world wrt "getting out at least close to whole". FWIW, I think that expectation is not realistic, especially since we actually bought a deeded interest in a right-to-use lease. Since it is important to you, you are wise to refrain from buying more.

 

[Bing Showei]

DVC is an anomaly in the timeshare world wrt "getting out at least close to whole". FWIW, I think that expectation is not realistic, especially since we actually bought a deeded interest in a right-to-use lease. Since it is important to you, you are wise to refrain from buying more.

But the problem is, since inception, when Disney was first selling a "Vacation Club," this expectation that DVC is "not just another timeshare" has been a branding identity that continues to be promulgated today.

To test the resale/retail relationship, I called up the sales center and talked to a guide about how my family was interested, but that my wife had reservations because of the long commitment.

Me: So we're interested in taking a tour, but the biggest hurdle I'm going to face is that my wife is worried about such a long commitment.
Guide: Well, it is a deeded interest, so if any point you decide this doesn't work, you can sell it.
Me: Oh! Disney will buy back my contract?
Guide: We have something called Right of Refusal, so you'd have to find a seller yourself.
Me: Oh interesting. Would I lose any money?
Guide: I have no idea. You'd have to do your own research on the internet to find out what's happening out there.

A quick google search would immediately put front and center the retained value of DVC in the resale market.

And earlier this year, when I spoke to Yvonne, she made it a point to mention that DVC members are unique in the timeshare world in that after years of enjoyment, we could still walk away and there would "still be value there" referring, of course, to the resale market. In our most recent conversation, she made it a point to draw the distinction that DVC has with the rest of the timeshare market.

While I agree "getting out at least close to whole" is now an unrealistic expectation for a buyer to have, it's one that continues to be perpetuated by management, and treated as a feature of the product by sales/marketing.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I don't think the gondolas shutting down with lightning in the area is a rumor is it? I think people are just speculating that they will.

Yeah it’s just speculation, I don’t see any reason for grounded system to be shut down very frequently. Since the CMs are under shelter also the ground operation wouldn’t be an issue either.

Correct. We don't know what the plan for gondola are. They shut down the pools and the boats when lightning is within 6 miles. We do not know what if anything will shut down the gondola. (Well, typically wind gusts above 50-60 mph will shut them down, but that's pretty rare even in Florida.)

Not quite.

True that we don't know the plan. However, it is speculation by some AND a rumor from a reputable person on WDWMagic:

 

[crvetter]

Not quite.

True that we don't know the plan. However, it is speculation by some AND a rumor from a reputable person on WDWMagic:

View attachment 393229

No offense to the reputable source, but I’ve seen him throw out most “rumors” only to keep back pedaling it to a generic shell, so I take what he says with a grain of salt always. I don’t see a scientific or life safety reason to shut down the service to a grounded system. If they do it will simply be too calm the fears of the consumer, IMO.

So maybe in a few years when people are comfortable Disney will push the limits more and more until it runs through lightning if they don’t initially.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

No offense to the reputable source, but I’ve seen him throw out most “rumors” only to keep back pedaling it to a generic shell, so I take what he says with a grain of salt always. I don’t see a scientific or life safety reason to shut down the service to a grounded system. If they do it will simply be too calm the fears of the consumer, IMO.

So maybe in a few years when people are comfortable Disney will push the limits more and more until it runs through lightning if they don’t initially.

To each his/her own! I find him to be dead on more often than not -- and in some cases it's known later that Disney had started with the position he shared and then changed course.

I'll just screen shot this for future reference.



All I know is that I would NEVER buy DRR without seeing how Disney chooses to operate the gondolas IN PRACTICE. To each his/her own on that one, too!

 

[crvetter]

To each his/her own! I find him to be dead on more often than not -- and in some cases it's known later that Disney had started with the position he shared and then changed course.

I'll just screen shot this for future reference.

You are free to do so . But if Disney decides not to run it, it will only because they are afraid of what guests will do, which I did say could be the case, but I don’t see a scientific reason to do so, which is why I say any decision on what they will do is pure speculation, which all an evolving rumor is, speculation.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

You are free to do so . But if Disney decides not to run it, it will only because they are afraid of what guests will do, which I did say could be the case, but I don’t see a scientific reason to do so, which is why I say any decision on what they will do is pure speculation, which all an evolving rumor is, speculation.

I never said there was a SCIENTIFIC reason to do this!! I don't think there is! There may very well be a Disney-is-overly-cautious-and-customers-might-freak-out reason to do it... which is why I'd wait to see what they do in practice.