Poly Tower Speculation

[tidefan]

To be fair, PVB1 is the only DVC option available at the Poly right now. I remember when it was announced and the Poly devotees were giddy with excitement. It was the only "Poly" option....but now there will be two. Yes, they are different in their own ways, but they are similar enough that they are both still the "Polynesian" villas.

I completely agree with your second point...if they don't put a lot of studios in the tower, then PVB1 will be preferred for those who want studios, which recent history would suggest is the trend for new buyers.

I think the biggest allure of the new tower is the fact that it will have multiple room types so that owners can "grow into" the resort. PVB1 is great if you ONLY want to stay in a studio...every time you stay at the Poly. PVB2, with studios/1BR/2BR will allow owners the ability to bank/borrow to "upgrade" to bigger rooms when the kids need space, or "downgrade" when it's just a couple's trip. They are not forced into the same room type every time they stay at the resort.

I own a meager 100 points at AKV and I love the fact that I can choose value studios, savanna view studios, value 1BR's, standard view 1BR, or bank/borrow for 2BR's. I can opt between Jambo (when I want a studio or value 1BR) or Kidani (when I want the larger 1BR with the extra bathroom). Often, I split my stay between the two...but I enjoy having that option. I think that would be the biggest benefit to making PVB1 and PVB2 the same association. There is obviously a HUGE appeal to staying at PVB1 and that appeal would carry over to the marketing of PVB2 if it were rolled into the same association.

Additionally, it's quite possible that some of the original buyers at PVB1 are starting to grow out of the studios and they are not interested in the point-gobbling bungalows. Their interest in 1BR/2BR at PVB2 could be offset by new PVB2 owners who want to stay in the original PVB1 studios...who knows? I'm just speculating...

Sure, but there are plenty of options at the O14 resorts for 1BR/2BR. Not sure I'd buy just to access the new tower, especially if I could get a BLT 1BR/2BR for cheaper at 7 months...

This assumes that everyone just wants to use at PVB2...

For me, that's what I started out doing, thinking we'd stay mainly at all these resorts... and then Aulani blew that out of the water. I could stay there every year. We have already done 6 "once in a lifetime" trips to Hawaii. That never happens without DVC...

 

[Sandisw]

Curve ball, not sure if its even something they could legally do, but same association AND restricted for anyone NOT a current poly owner?

Current poly owner, whether resale or direct, gets access to new tower. Any OTHER resale points are restricted from access to the tower rooms but still have access to the longhouses and bungalows?

If it is the same association it has to have consistent rules for trading into and out of it.

Currently, PVB DVC resort agreement allows all other resort points to be eligible to use it there.

In order to do what you say, it would mean that PVB would have a different agreement with all other resorts thst says thst their resale points can’t use our resort but our resale points can use your resort.

It works with RIV because the resale points for that resort can’t trade out in exchange for resale points not being able to trade in.

Plus, you can’t have different rules for selling the products for the owners of the resorts.

So, if the tower becomes part of PVB, then owners of all those points would be able to sell with the same terms as current PVB owners..used everywhere but future..which means no restrictions in play.

 

[MouseyMin]

The way I see it, both RIV and Grand Flo 2 had things going against them. RIV had the resale restrictions, and Flo2 only had Studios but didn't have a proper Studio kitchen. So my guess is that these things contributed to both resorts not selling very well. Especially for current members who know and understand these things.

 

[maui22]

I very much still think it will be the same association.

My apologies Amy.

Hoping so, but happy either way.

We offered on a PVB resale contract this morning and just heard it was accepted. In the end, Polynesian is the right resort for DW and I.

 

[Brian Noble]

There is no reason anyone with decision authority at Disney cares about some revenue stream that happens 40 years from now vs. 50 years from now. They will all be long retired (and probably dead) by the time that revenue does or does not happen. That will have no impact on their stock options, bonuses, etc.

 

[emchen]

Now what that does to resale, who knows, but I cant imagine it'll tank values too seriously when nearly everything is restricted to use at home resort only, but it could change the delta between resale and direct as the biggest perk then as now will be ability to use points at all resorts, and even more so then.

This IS the best single argument (in the general sense) of why Disney will never drop resale restrictions.

To clearly differentiate direct from resale. They’ve been looking for something to do so since OKW sold out. Bad news, all ye haters of restrictions, they will never,”just drop restrictions”!

 

[zavandor]

Bad news, all ye haters of restrictions, they will never,”just drop restrictions”!

Why wouldn't anyone not hate the resale restrictions?
I already own only unrestricted point, more than I need. And I have no intention to buy more or sell any of my points. So it seems I am not impacted.
And yet...
... the restrictions may make resorts more difficult to book at 7 months
... if I decide to buy more points when I retire they'll be restricted
... if something happens and I need to sell, they'd be worth less

So I am impacted, even if it's not apparent. Even if they just limit some of the options for the future, that at the moment I do not intend to use.
Now, hate is a strong word. I do not "hate" them. But really, it's just rational to have a deep disliking of them.

BTW, I agree, they're not going anywhere.

 

[KimMcGowan]

I think everyone is being far too analytical about the question of restrictions. We are answering with our heart and not our heads (a completely normal thing to do on a subject we are passionate about. I will fight to the death (OK, not really) that Wilderness Lodge is the best Disney resort). The question is, did restrictions hurt sales at Rivera? There are only two possible answers: yes or no. To answer that question we have to ask a different question, is there anyone that did not buy because of the restrictions? That is an easy answer - of course. So, restrictions (without question) hurt sales at Rivera. The main question everyone has been debating is actually the rate at which sales were affected and if Disney finds that rate acceptable. That is the point where Disney seems a bit neurotic. Thus all of our arguing about restrictions. They added another resort with restrictions - but also added a "new" DVC without them. What will they do at Poly 2? I really don't have a clue. I am completely in the middle. I could see them going either way. As a Poly owner I am not even sure what I want them to do. I am happy with the Poly I bought - do I want them adding a lot more competition for my rooms? I am not sure. Hmmm....but I could stay in a shiny new tower.

 

[tom1944]

I think everyone is being far too analytical about the question of restrictions. We are answering with our heart and not our heads (a completely normal thing to do on a subject we are passionate about. I will fight to the death (OK, not really) that Wilderness Lodge is the best Disney resort). The question is, did restrictions hurt sales at Rivera? There are only two possible answers: yes or no. To answer that question we have to ask a different question, is there anyone that did not buy because of the restrictions? That is an easy answer - of course. So, restrictions (without question) hurt sales at Rivera. The main question everyone has been debating is actually the rate at which sales were affected and if Disney finds that rate acceptable. That is the point where Disney seems a bit neurotic. Thus all of our arguing about restrictions. They added another resort with restrictions - but also added a "new" DVC without them. What will they do at Poly 2? I really don't have a clue. I am completely in the middle. I could see them going either way. As a Poly owner I am not even sure what I want them to do. I am happy with the Poly I bought - do I want them adding a lot more competition for my rooms? I am not sure. Hmmm....but I could stay in a shiny new tower.

If Poly2 is not restricted what do you think that means for the value of direct Riviera points?

 

[KimMcGowan]

If Poly2 is not restricted what do you think that means for the value of direct Riviera points?

I think that depends on Fort Wilderness. If FW goes on sale first and has restrictions then Riviera is fine because another WDW DVC has the restrictions too. However, if Poly goes on sale first then Riviera takes a hit.

 

[Sandisw]

Why wouldn't anyone not hate the resale restrictions?
I already own only unrestricted point, more than I need. And I have no intention to buy more or sell any of my points. So it seems I am not impacted.
And yet...
... the restrictions may make resorts more difficult to book at 7 months
... if I decide to buy more points when I retire they'll be restricted
... if something happens and I need to sell, they'd be worth less

So I am impacted, even if it's not apparent. Even if they just limit some of the options for the future, that at the moment I do not intend to use.
Now, hate is a strong word. I do not "hate" them. But really, it's just rational to have a deep disliking of them.

BTW, I agree, they're not going anywhere.

There is a difference between not hating them to being indifferent to them.

We are indifferent to them. They simply don’t bother us because we bought to use so what ever potential consequences it has when selling doesn’t matter as we didn’t go in expecting a return.

We own where we want to be and trading elsewhere was never a big deal if we can’t move. . So, there is no reason to feel one way or the other about them.

Now, it certainly makes it a different product than it used to be and people buying now may have to consider different things when deciding.

 

[KimMcGowan]

Ohhhh…y’all are going to think I am crazy (what’s new). After all the talk about restrictions, I was thinking about a picture I saw on a different Poly thread about family studios.

Do you think it is possible that Disney is pulling a bit of a fast one on us? We look at this view and think the building is heavy on bigger rooms. BUT… what if the other side of the building, the one with the scenic view of the parking lot (and golf course) is mainly studios? It would kinda make sense - all the higher point priced rooms with the better view and the studios get the pedestrian view. Sure, there could be some bigger rooms on that side too.

 

[tom1944]

I think that depends on Fort Wilderness. If FW goes on sale first and has restrictions then Riviera is fine because another WDW DVC has the restrictions too. However, if Poly goes on sale first then Riviera takes a hit.

I think you are correct that Fort Wilderness would help but I believe Poly not be restricted would be a bigger drag.

If both are restricted I believe it helps all three.

 

[Sandisw]

Ohhhh…y’all are going to think I am crazy (what’s new). After all the talk about restrictions, I was thinking about a picture I saw on a different Poly thread about family studios.
View attachment 781257
Do you think it is possible that Disney is pulling a bit of a fast one on us? We look at this view and think the building is heavy on bigger rooms. BUT… what if the other side of the building, the one with the scenic view of the parking lot (and golf course) is mainly studios? It would kinda make sense - all the higher point priced rooms with the better view and the studios get the pedestrian view. Sure, there could be some bigger rooms on that side too.

In that thread, I shared my view that these would consist of the typical 2 bedroom lock offs with some dedicated studios.

But, they could make the back side have more of the duo studios?

What will be interesting is what concept they use for studios and whether they go the resort studio model or typical??

 

[Stargazer65]

I think restrictions are likely at either Poly2 or FWC just so they can have at least one restricted resort at MK. They have one at Disneyland now (VDH), and they have one at EPCOT. (Riviera, the EPCOTtiest of all the EPCOT resorts).

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

If Poly2 is not restricted what do you think that means for the value of direct Riviera points?

Almost nothing because other than us weirdos on message boards most people have no clue what a resale restriction is or if/why they should care.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Ohhhh…y’all are going to think I am crazy (what’s new). After all the talk about restrictions, I was thinking about a picture I saw on a different Poly thread about family studios.
View attachment 781257
Do you think it is possible that Disney is pulling a bit of a fast one on us? We look at this view and think the building is heavy on bigger rooms. BUT… what if the other side of the building, the one with the scenic view of the parking lot (and golf course) is mainly studios? It would kinda make sense - all the higher point priced rooms with the better view and the studios get the pedestrian view. Sure, there could be some bigger rooms on that side too.

That’s basically what they did at VDH where all the 1BR+ face the theme parks (at least ostensibly) while the view of the surrounding neighborhoods is reserved for studios (some studios also face the other way, but none of the large rooms face the neighborhood)

 

[tom1944]

Almost nothing because other than us weirdos on message boards most people have no clue what a resale restriction is or if/why they should care.

I can’t deny that you are right.

It really is a shame and an example of why many people make poor financial decisions

 

[DVCsloth]

I'm not sure of the reason that Disney would put the new tower in the same association. It seems to me there are already more than enough studios available in the MK area especially since they added VGF2. The Bungalows always seem to have availability and the Polynesian studios usually have availability at 7 months. This would not be a good selling point for the new towers, if you were interested in a poly studio, just buy resale. Maybe there are other factors that I'm not considering? I would be interested in the Poly Tower but not if it's the same association because I believe reservations will be tight and if its open to all current poly points it will be way worse.

 

[Sandisw]

I can’t deny that you are right.

It really is a shame and an example of why many people make poor financial decisions

To play the other side of the coin, I’d say it’s a poor financial decision to buy DVC, a timeshare, caring about what a potential resale value could or should be…