Poly Tower Speculation

[ehh]

Have you reached out then to DVC to share what you are seeing? I have not been able to figure out seeing room counts yet but it should never be that high if we are outside the booking window.

Are you checking right at midnight? Just curious when you are seeing such a big discrepancy against declared.

I was thinking about resort studios..so we have the actual number of each view? I don’t believe DVC publishes that, so they?

I have not reached out. I'm content with status quo and am more concerned about unintended consequences. I'm also content not knowing what this is while having general awareness it exists (and being able to piece together what it isn't).

I don't usually check right at midnight, but I have a handful of times and it's the same thing as other times between midnight and 8am (ET).

DVC has not published how many there are of each Resort Studio view at VGF, but you can count what they likely are on a floorplan (84SV + 90LV + 28TPV). Even removing views from the equation, we do know there are 202 and only ~150 appear to make it to bookable inventory (when checking midnight after a weekday).

Also, going back through old DVCNews articles, DVC did not declare all of VGF2 at once (though it was 100% declared before it opened). They split it into 2 declarations, the first one in Feb, sales started in March, owners could book starting mid-March via phone, online booking began mid-May (I was not checking VGF inventory then), they sold about 25% of the points, then declared the remainder a few days before it opened for stays. I guess this is moot without data about what was in the booking tool at the time, though.

To get back to Poly tower, even if they go same, I just don’t see them declaring at a rate higher than sales dictate.

I think they might declare slightly faster than normal, at least early on, if it relieves negative word of mouth about booking difficulty.

 

[emchen]

And there's other booking tool quirks (how inventory is posted on weekends vs. weekdays) that also suggest it's not FW.

If you are saying the "quirks" include how inventory is posted on weekends (and not weekdays), wouldn't that suggest FW as well? FW for all resorts that sold them (except for CCV) is Sun through Sat. If you check CCV inventory, you'll probably see more variability and might validate my guess.

 

[ehh]

If you are saying the "quirks" include how inventory is posted on weekends (and not weekdays), wouldn't that suggest FW as well? FW for all resorts that sold them (except for CCV) is Sun through Sat. If you check CCV inventory, you'll probably see more variability and might validate my guess.

I'll elaborate on this particular quirk and why it's not FW:

Let's say I check the night of September 21, 2023 at 9pm my time. At 9pm my time is Sept 22 in ET, and I can now see the inventory out until the night of August 28th 2024. August 28th is not bookable until 8am ET, or 5am my time, so this 8hr window should show the maximum inventory as it's 'unspoiled' by booking.

For reference, September 21, 2023, is a Thursday night. August 28, 2024 is a Wednesday night.

When I check a room category, let's say there's 90 rooms available on August 28, 2024. I can check again the next night, Friday, Sept 22nd, and I'll see the max inventory for Thurs, Aug 29. There will also be 90 rooms. I can also look back at earlier days and while some rooms may have been booked, it's clear they're starting from a baseline of 90.

But the next night, checking on my Saturday night, Sept 23rd, one of the quirks appears. The booking tool will show closer-to-100% inventory for August 30th, a Friday night. It shows 100 rooms available. Check again on my Sunday night, and August 31st shows 100 rooms available again.

Check again on my Monday night, Sept 25th 2023, and Sept 1, 2024 is back down to 90 and so are Aug 30th/31st (which previously showed 100), possibly minus some booking.

It's as if they don't work weekends to preemptively remove inventory and then clean up on Mondays.

Now as for FW, those do automatically appear removed from inventory, even on weekends. So if there's 2 FW, Aug 31st may show 90 rooms but Sept 1 (a Sunday) shows 88. It will show 88 for the full week then jump up to 98 then 100 on my weekend.

Two other reasons why it's not FW: the sheer volume of inexplicably missing inventory far exceeds FW sales (VGF's Resort Studio inventory is down ~25%, or 50ish rooms, every single week...they've sold 52 to cover the entire year) and it also happens at resorts that never sold FW.

 

[emchen]

I'll elaborate on this particular quirk and why it's not FW:

Let's say I check the night of September 21, 2023 at 9pm my time. At 9pm my time is Sept 22 in ET, and I can now see the inventory out until the night of August 28th 2024. August 28th is not bookable until 8am ET, or 5am my time, so this 8hr window should show the maximum inventory as it's 'unspoiled' by booking.

For reference, September 21, 2023, is a Thursday night. August 28, 2024 is a Wednesday night.

When I check a room category, let's say there's 90 rooms available on August 28, 2024. I can check again the next night, Friday, Sept 22nd, and I'll see the max inventory for Thurs, Aug 29. There will also be 90 rooms. I can also look back at earlier days and while some rooms may have been booked, it's clear they're starting from a baseline of 90.

But the next night, checking on my Saturday night, Sept 23rd, one of the quirks appears. The booking tool will show closer-to-100% inventory for August 30th, a Friday night. It shows 100 rooms available. Check again on my Sunday night, and August 31st shows 100 rooms available again.

Check again on my Monday night, Sept 25th 2023, and Sept 1, 2024 is back down to 90 and so are Aug 30th/31st (which previously showed 100), possibly minus some booking.

It's as if they don't work weekends to preemptively remove inventory and then clean up on Mondays.

Now as for FW, those do automatically appear removed from inventory, even on weekends. So if there's 2 FW, Aug 31st may show 90 rooms but Sept 1 (a Sunday) shows 88. It will show 88 for the full week then jump up to 98 then 100 on my weekend.

Two other reasons why it's not FW: the sheer volume of inexplicably missing inventory far exceeds FW sales (VGF's Resort Studio inventory is down ~25%, or 50ish rooms, every single week...they've sold 52 to cover the entire year) and it also happens at resorts that never sold FW.

I get it now. I had to run your response through ChatGPT (that's how dense I am). So there is actually more inventory on Weekends than on Weekdays, but that may be because they don't work on weekends and just "fix it" on Monday, but more importantly, missing inventory exceeds FW by alot and you observe this phenomenon even at resorts that never sold FWs.

Thanks for taking time to clarify this point!

 

[ehh]

I get it now. I had to run your response through ChatGPT (that's how dense I am). So there is actually more inventory on Weekends than on Weekdays, but that may be because they don't work on weekends and just "fix it" on Monday, but more importantly, missing inventory exceeds FW by alot and you observe this phenomenon even at resorts that never sold FWs.

Thanks for taking time to clarify this point!

Exactly! Thank you for the concise summary

There's also the distinction between my weekend and the 'stay weekend'. My weekend is determined by the night I check, the 'stay weekend' is whether the nights in the booking tool are in a weekend 11m+7d from now (which has FW implications).

 

[aka Charles]

I'll elaborate on this particular quirk and why it's not FW:

Let's say I check the night of September 21, 2023 at 9pm my time. At 9pm my time is Sept 22 in ET, and I can now see the inventory out until the night of August 28th 2024. August 28th is not bookable until 8am ET, or 5am my time, so this 8hr window should show the maximum inventory as it's 'unspoiled' by booking.

For reference, September 21, 2023, is a Thursday night. August 28, 2024 is a Wednesday night.

When I check a room category, let's say there's 90 rooms available on August 28, 2024. I can check again the next night, Friday, Sept 22nd, and I'll see the max inventory for Thurs, Aug 29. There will also be 90 rooms. I can also look back at earlier days and while some rooms may have been booked, it's clear they're starting from a baseline of 90.

But the next night, checking on my Saturday night, Sept 23rd, one of the quirks appears. The booking tool will show closer-to-100% inventory for August 30th, a Friday night. It shows 100 rooms available. Check again on my Sunday night, and August 31st shows 100 rooms available again.

Check again on my Monday night, Sept 25th 2023, and Sept 1, 2024 is back down to 90 and so are Aug 30th/31st (which previously showed 100), possibly minus some booking.

It's as if they don't work weekends to preemptively remove inventory and then clean up on Mondays.

Now as for FW, those do automatically appear removed from inventory, even on weekends. So if there's 2 FW, Aug 31st may show 90 rooms but Sept 1 (a Sunday) shows 88. It will show 88 for the full week then jump up to 98 then 100 on my weekend.

Two other reasons why it's not FW: the sheer volume of inexplicably missing inventory far exceeds FW sales (VGF's Resort Studio inventory is down ~25%, or 50ish rooms, every single week...they've sold 52 to cover the entire year) and it also happens at resorts that never sold FW.

Forgive me if this is a silly question, but exactly what or how are you checking to get an exact number of rooms available in inventory?
.

 

[Sandisw]

I'll elaborate on this particular quirk and why it's not FW:

Let's say I check the night of September 21, 2023 at 9pm my time. At 9pm my time is Sept 22 in ET, and I can now see the inventory out until the night of August 28th 2024. August 28th is not bookable until 8am ET, or 5am my time, so this 8hr window should show the maximum inventory as it's 'unspoiled' by booking.

For reference, September 21, 2023, is a Thursday night. August 28, 2024 is a Wednesday night.

When I check a room category, let's say there's 90 rooms available on August 28, 2024. I can check again the next night, Friday, Sept 22nd, and I'll see the max inventory for Thurs, Aug 29. There will also be 90 rooms. I can also look back at earlier days and while some rooms may have been booked, it's clear they're starting from a baseline of 90.

But the next night, checking on my Saturday night, Sept 23rd, one of the quirks appears. The booking tool will show closer-to-100% inventory for August 30th, a Friday night. It shows 100 rooms available. Check again on my Sunday night, and August 31st shows 100 rooms available again.

Check again on my Monday night, Sept 25th 2023, and Sept 1, 2024 is back down to 90 and so are Aug 30th/31st (which previously showed 100), possibly minus some booking.

It's as if they don't work weekends to preemptively remove inventory and then clean up on Mondays.

Now as for FW, those do automatically appear removed from inventory, even on weekends. So if there's 2 FW, Aug 31st may show 90 rooms but Sept 1 (a Sunday) shows 88. It will show 88 for the full week then jump up to 98 then 100 on my weekend.

Two other reasons why it's not FW: the sheer volume of inexplicably missing inventory far exceeds FW sales (VGF's Resort Studio inventory is down ~25%, or 50ish rooms, every single week...they've sold 52 to cover the entire year) and it also happens at resorts that never sold FW.

I believe room sold based on 51 weeks, not 52? May not matter to what you are saying but as a VGF owner this is an issue for me….and definitely will inquire with DVC.

ETA. It could have to do with them pulling things for exchanges and trades…that does not have to match…but o still want an answer in case my understanding is wrong.

 

[ehh]

I believe room sold based on 51 weeks, not 52? May not matter to what you are saying but as a VGF owner this is an issue for me….and definitely will inquire with DVC.

I think the 52 is a coincidence. There are fifty-two fixed weeks sold per DVCNews: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...s-continue-on-a-robust-pace-in-september-2023

EDIT: realized my "to cover the entire year" is unclear. They've sold 52, just leave it that haha.

 

[Sandisw]

I think the 52 is a coincidence. There are fifty-two fixed weeks sold per DVCNews: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...s-continue-on-a-robust-pace-in-september-2023

That’s not what I am talking about. It’s something in either the POS or timeshare law. I’ll try to find.

 

[zavandor]

It's as if they don't work weekends to preemptively remove inventory and then clean up on Mondays.

If true that's a good thing.
When booking breakage, they should have the same level of access as members do. This means they shouldn't be able to book high coveted rooms (like AKV value) before the 11 months booking window opens for members.

 

[MJB62676]

Agreed!

I tend to think there are a lot of current PVB owners who would add on more points on day 1 of it going on sale if it was part of the same association. Do I know the exact number - no. But I would think the number is significantly more than people who would buy in on day one specifically BECAUSE it’s a separate association.

I'm poised to buy at least 200 on day one if it's same assn. Perhaps more depending on price.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I'm poised to buy at least 200 on day one if it's same assn. Perhaps more depending on price.

I’m poised to buy 450 on day one, but ONLY if poly 2 is a completely separate association….

I have no use for it otherwise

 

[intamin]

I’m poised to buy 450 on day one, but ONLY if poly 2 is a completely separate association….

I have no use for it otherwise

I’m somewhat similar, if it’s same association I won’t feel rushed to buy it and will test the waters at 7 months and see how things turn out.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I’m somewhat similar, if it’s same association I won’t feel rushed to buy it and will test the waters at 7 months and see how things turn out.

I think there are too many people who regret buying studio-only property and it would be hard to reserve one and two bedrooms moving forward. Plus I'm sure there are a few people who bought for access to the bungalows that, would like to stay longer and use fewer points.

Plus all of my points are direct so, yea there is that

 

[iheartglaciers]

WDI still has the people. Just look at what OLC is having them build for Tokyo Disney Resort. It blows me away that these two projects are being built in the same era, it's like DisneySea and DCA 1.0 all over again.

I just came back from Tokyo Disney and stayed at MiraCosta, the theming and details are just next level. But their hotels are running at practically DVC level occupancy, it's hard to get a room. Deluxe hotels at WDW are struggling in comparison, which is why they keep replacing parts of them with DVC.

But being at Tokyo Disney makes you wish we could have all of those rich Imagineering projects here! I mean even the queue for their version of Soarin' is

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I’m poised to buy 450 on day one, but ONLY if poly 2 is a completely separate association….

I have no use for it otherwise

I’m poised to buy 900 on day one, but only if it is the same association.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I’m poised to buy 900 on day one, but ONLY if it is the same association.

well one of us is going to be broke
and one of us will be buying somewhere else

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Wonder if the new Poly2 studios will have a real table and chairs. The type of association is irrelevant. No table and chairs in the studios, not buying one point…..

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Wonder if the new Poly2 studios will have a real table and chairs. The type of association is irrelevant. No table and chairs in the studios, not buying one point…..

See, I would prefer if there were no studios, just 1, 2, and 3 bedrooms

 

[Genie+]

I just want 2 bathrooms in 1BR, very comfy beds, tables, chairs, room theming gleaming and tasteful yet energetic but with an open air of roominess that extents out the fabulous balcony and doubleply TP with an island flower stamped into the end fold. I’m poised to expedite credit card numbers via phone so fast we’ll have a jumping bundle of 200 shiny new points within minutes. Let’s Goooooooo!!!!!!!