Possible delay on Poly 2.0 direct sales given so many resorts for sale at the same time and possible economic downturn?

[🍀TwinsMom]

What say you, DVC crystal ball readers? I am eagerly watching any YouTube videos of Poly 2.0 construction from the monorail, but I'm questioning if they kick the can on Poly 2.0 direct sales with all the other resorts still selling points by next spring/summer for that projected Fall/early Winter, 2024 opening date.

Have they ever delayed an opening beyond claiming there were just routine construction delays?

Possible announcements or more pictures to come for D23 in September? I can't believe it has taken this long to get information on DVH when it can go on sale any minute now and is already taking cash reservations for this fall.

 

[Sandisw]

I think it is possible we have a slight delay in when they open. I am waiting to see the VDH news and once that happens, it might give us some insight!

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

I'm thinking there's a delay, but IDK how long of one. You think they'll sit on it finished like Ratatouille? If it's supposed to be opening December-ish of next year I think, so maybe spring break for 2025 perhaps? I know their fiscal year is October 1, so if it's on time it's 2nd quarter, and spring would be third.

I wish VDH would open points and charts so we have an idea which way the wind will blow!

 

[tjkraz]

Few thoughts:

1) Aside from the cash reservations (which was probably little more than a veiled attempt to attraction some attention), what's happening with VDH is typical for new resorts. DVC doesn't drop the pertinent sales information in bits and pieces. They'll release everything when an on-sale date is announced.

2) By summer 2024, VGF will be within a stone's throw of "sold out." Even if they sell just 50K points per month, it will only take 16 more months. They'll manipulate pricing to achieve that goal.

3) What purpose would it serve to delay? How does DVC benefit by letting the tower stand idle while just selling Riviera, Aulani and VDH?

 

[Yankee626]

Few thoughts:

1) Aside from the cash reservations (which was probably little more than a veiled attempt to attraction some attention), what's happening with VDH is typical for new resorts. DVC doesn't drop the pertinent sales information in bits and pieces. They'll release everything when an on-sale date is announced.

2) By summer 2024, VGF will be within a stone's throw of "sold out." Even if they sell just 50K points per month, it will only take 16 more months. They'll manipulate pricing to achieve that goal.

3) What purpose would it serve to delay? How does DVC benefit by letting the tower stand idle while just selling Riviera, Aulani and VDH?

Disney doesnt have to have it sit idle; they can rent the rooms out for years if they want to. It may actually create interest and stir up a market to generate sales. They wont have a problem filling that resort .

 

[tjkraz]

Disney doesnt have to have it sit idle; they can rent the rooms out for years if they want to. It may actually create interest and stir up a market to generate sales. They wont have a problem filling that resort .

If the end game was cash reservations, DVC wouldn't exist.

I don't see how DVC benefits in the long run by "stirring up interest" rather than just taking people's money. If they're in no rush to sell, price it high and earn a greater profit margin off every point. And rent the unsold rooms until they do sell.

 

[Yankee626]

Disney will still have to sell the Riviera and Possibly the GFV . If they dont hold off the New Poly, Riviera sales will absolutely tank. If they sell out the Riviera first then they could sell the Poly at an even higher cost because there will be no other choice. They could maximize revenue at both Resorts. or they could just put the New Poly up at an astronomical cost until Riviera sells out. In the mean time they will be making money off the new sold out Poly like gangbusters.

 

[wnielsen1]

Disney will still have to sell the Riviera and Possibly the GFV . If they dont hold off the New Poly, Riviera sales will absolutely tank. If they sell out the Riviera first then they could sell the Poly at an even higher cost because there will be no other choice. They could maximize revenue at both Resorts. or they could just put the New Poly up at an astronomical cost until Riviera sells out. In the mean time they will be making money off the new sold out Poly like gangbusters.

They won't wait for Riv to sell out.

 

[tjkraz]

Disney will still have to sell the Riviera and Possibly the GFV . If they dont hold off the New Poly, Riviera sales will absolutely tank. If they sell out the Riviera first then they could sell the Poly at an even higher cost because there will be no other choice. They could maximize revenue at both Resorts. or they could just put the New Poly up at an astronomical cost until Riviera sells out. In the mean time they will be making money off the new sold out Poly like gangbusters.

Riviera outsold VGF for 6 months straight. All it takes is a few dollars difference in incentives.

Disney hotels average about 90% occupancy. Opening the Poly rooms as cash inventory simply creates even more capacity than they need, shifting guests from other locations. And they'll still be able to rent rooms for cash while the DVC points are still selling...probably a span of 2-3 years.

Disney may have some ability to slow construction. I'm not privy to those agreements. Nor do I know if they would even want to slow construction. Once the resort is open and ready for occupancy, it makes zero sense to not begin selling immediately. Take. The. Money.

 

[TinkAgainU]

Having VGF and Poly2 available for sale at the same time would likely just increase activity and sales for both. When people have two (different) choices, they are more likely to come and look - onsite Buyers can be Very motivated. You "might" say that was true of Riviera, but the walking and monorail ride between two killer theme resorts is very attractive. If Buyers are not concerned with the 11 month priority (who knows how many truly understand it going-in) they will think if I buy one, I get both, easy decision, here's my credit card.

 

[RoseGold]

Having VGF and Poly2 available for sale at the same time would likely just increase activity and sales for both

I mean, I know sales aren't great, but VGF2 was only 2M points. There's no way VGF still won't be sold out by then, right?

If they can't sell 2M points at VGF2, maybe building a massive tower might not be the brightest move.

 

[kilik64]

They could just slow walk the construction, look at the 5 years it took to build a copy of a ride in MK...

 

[beldred]

When we were there 2 weeks ago, the DVC guide at the Contemporary told us that Poly2 wouldn't be going on sale until 2025. She seemed pretty confident in it. Of course, she also told me she'd get me a magnet and sliders (it was our first dvc trip as owners) and she never did so maybe she's an untruth teller.

 

[zavandor]

Disney will still have to sell the Riviera and Possibly the GFV . If they dont hold off the New Poly, Riviera sales will absolutely tank. If they sell out the Riviera first then they could sell the Poly at an even higher cost because there will be no other choice. They could maximize revenue at both Resorts. or they could just put the New Poly up at an astronomical cost until Riviera sells out. In the mean time they will be making money off the new sold out Poly like gangbusters.

Why do you think there must be only one resort on sale to sell DVC points for an high price? They seem pretty high for me.
People said VGF2 would make Riviera sales tank, and that didn't happen.

 

[Yankee626]

Why do you think there must be only one resort on sale to sell DVC points for an high price? They seem pretty high for me.
People said VGF2 would make Riviera sales tank, and that didn't happen.

How do you know that ? If VGF wasnt on the market those sales could have been Riviera.

 

[zavandor]

How do you know that ? If VGF wasnt on the market those sales could have been Riviera.

Please clarify: are you saying that having multiple resorts on sale is negative and decreases sales?
I think that having a wider offer increases sales. Anyone who doesn't like Riviera has an alternative in VGF, and vice versa. What evidence do you have that this isn't true? Add VDH in the mix and you have people on the East coast to add sales. Add Poly and you have people who wanted 1BR and 2BR and didn't buy the original DVC there because it's all studios but don't want other resorts.
Disney can still rent for cash the undeclared units. I really don't see why they should delay sales on a resort that is ready.

 

[Yankee626]

Please clarify: are you saying that having multiple resorts on sale is negative and decreases sales?
I think that having a wider offer increases sales. Anyone who doesn't like Riviera has an alternative in VGF, and vice versa. What evidence do you have that this isn't true? Add VDH in the mix and you have people on the East coast to add sales. Add Poly and you have people who wanted 1BR and 2BR and didn't buy the original DVC there because it's all studios but don't want other resorts.
Disney can still rent for cash the undeclared units. I really don't see why they should delay sales on a resort that is ready.

Lets say you have 100 people wanting to buy a car. You have 100 of car A and 100 of car B to sell. That leaves you with 100 cars left. If your only selling car A then you have 0 cars left. Then you sell the next 100 car B to the next 100 people. So in my explanation having both car A and B to sell does hurt the sales of car A. FIFO . First in first out. As for VDH that is more like a specialty item. That should have no affect on Riv or Poly sales .

 

[zavandor]

But if someone dislikes car A but loves car B, you delay one sale and that person might use the money to buy something else (a different car, a different timeshare or burn the money in a week end in Las Vegas).
Disney is the only one selling DVC direct contracts and with the resale restriction the product they sell is not the same that can be purchased on the secondary market. So the only limit on their pricing is how much people are willing to pay and how fast they want to sell the points. The amount of total points for sale has no influence on that, as long as they have enough points to sell (too few points is a problem, not too many).
While the points are sitting unsold, they still generate revenues, unlike unsold cars in a warehouse.
They have already started construction on the Poly tower, not selling it when it's ready means potentially lose on sales to people who prefer the Poly and would not rather buy Riviera or VGF.

 

[The Jackal]

They aren’t even selling points yet for the new Disneyland DVC. They are letting you very soon rent rooms for cash. They haven’t even announced when they will start selling points and that is a complete different market then WDW, so those sales will not really impact WDW DVC sales.

 

[Sandisw]

Lets say you have 100 people wanting to buy a car. You have 100 of car A and 100 of car B to sell. That leaves you with 100 cars left. If your only selling car A then you have 0 cars left. Then you sell the next 100 car B to the next 100 people. So in my explanation having both car A and B to sell does hurt the sales of car A. FIFO . First in first out. As for VDH that is more like a specialty item. That should have no affect on Riv or Poly sales .

Well the sales for RIV stayed pretty constant even after VGF went on sale so oversell sales were a bit better with both.

Having options so far hasn’t seemed to tank RIV and I don’t expect it to be different.

I think whar seems to guide sales more than anything is being priced correctly for the product being offered.

VGF had slow sales..outside first few months..until they increased incentives and it now seems to be selling on par with RIV.