Riviera or Copper Creek?

[sethschroeder]

I love rivera too, I am thinking of adding a contract.. do you recommend purchasing a rivera contract??

I don't like the resale restrictions, think the location is over rated, and think the MFs are high for what you get.

That being said you like the resort, are okay with points charts, and will stay at Riv most years then get it.

Likely being one of the highest if not the highest WDW resorts for MFs means you better be staying there or what's the point.

 

[€lairebear]

I’ve not stayed there. We bought when we saw the model rooms back in December. No regrets though despite this pandemic. I would say it depends on the individual. If you move the riviera and feel it’s like hone I would say go for it. I purchased dvc at copper creek first even before visiting wdw. Stayed ccv first time, welcome stay and first visit to wdw. No regrets on our purchase either we love copper creek and riviera due to the proximity to epcot via skyliner. We’ve not visited the actual building just seen model rooms at Saratoga but If you’ve seen riviera and already love everything about it go for it.

 

[RoseGold]

I'm not sure I understand your rationale. I'm not sure why you would buy direct at all, I don't see an argument here that you could get your money's worth out of the (current) blue card benefits.

If you plan on studios, I'm not sure why Poly isn't in this discussion over Copper. Poly is actually the top value period on that other site's point value, and plenty of studios. Lots of time on the contract, good pricing, good availability. Better cash value compared to Copper, for sure.

I've been studying this a long time, and I would not buy RIV right now. No one knows what will happen in resale. We don't have enough information to know if you are comparing a very valuable Poly contract to a brick of a a RIV. No one knows yet. Direct is not going anywhere. You can always do it later.

That said, I would consider the new California property...

 

[€lairebear]

I’ve not stayed there. We bought when we saw the model rooms back in December. No regrets though despite this pandemic. I would say it depends on the individual. If you move the riviera and feel it’s like hone I would say go for it. I purchased dvc at copper creek first even before visiting wdw. Stayed ccv first time, welcome stay and first visit to wdw. No regrets on our purchase either we love copper creek and riviera due to the proximity to epcot via skyliner. We’ve not visited the actual building just seen model rooms at Saratoga but If you’ve seen riviera and already love everything about it go for it.

Just to add there are folks that don’t care for it but I feel it’s up to the individual. There are folks that don’t care for Saratoga but also folks that love Saratoga that doesn’t make a dvc resort a terrible choice. Only you know if that resort is a good fit. I don’t believe in dictating what is great dvc resort and what’s overrated as I feel that’s subjective and everyone is entitled to their own preference. Example I don’t care for grand Floridian but that doesn’t mean it’s an overrated resort and I wouldn’t encourage others on hating it or not to buy there. Buy where you want to stay. There are folks that don’t like ccv and when I purchased sight unseen I was worried due to online posts bought high dues, smallest rooms, hard to get, etc. But those are folks opinions doesn’t mean it’s the same for me. Remember it’s your money your vacation don’t let others dictate how and which resort you should purchase. Whatever I read about ccv about hard to get I’ve yet to experience trouble booking and I’m a happy ccv owner. Just my 2 cents. Everyone have different taste but if you know you love riviera go for it.

 

[JavaDuck]

My husband and I are new DVC members that purchased a contract at Riveria. We were deciding between Copper Creek and Riveria. We decided on Riveria because we liked the look of the rooms from several videos we watched, the location, and the price. Before we bought we looked at the point charts and figured out how many points we would need for the type of vacations we want to take. With the incentives we were able to get more points than we originally planned. We knew about the restrictions on Riveria, and decided they were not an issue for us. Like many others have said, pick a home resort that you are happy with. Think about how you plan to vacation now, but also how you might vacation in the future. We're both about 15 years away from retirement and thought about how our vacation plans will probably change at that time. We are looking forward to our first welcome home visit in February.

 

[limace]

Have you narrowed it down to only those to resorts because they are the ones uou like most?

 

[sethschroeder]

I'm not sure I understand your rationale. I'm not sure why you would buy direct at all, I don't see an argument here that you could get your money's worth out of the (current) blue card benefits.

If you plan on studios, I'm not sure why Poly isn't in this discussion over Copper. Poly is actually the top value period on that other site's point value, and plenty of studios. Lots of time on the contract, good pricing, good availability. Better cash value compared to Copper, for sure.

I've been studying this a long time, and I would not buy RIV right now. No one knows what will happen in resale. We don't have enough information to know if you are comparing a very valuable Poly contract to a brick of a a RIV. No one knows yet. Direct is not going anywhere. You can always do it later.

That said, I would consider the new California property...

3 Trips in a single year = AP requirement annually (savings in the first 5-10 years to offset any resale vs direct purchase)

Unless this multiple trips in a year won't happen again for the next 10+ years. Even if you travel once a year if you can space them out to 11 months and 3 weeks apart you can get an AP to cover both trips.

 

[Yinn]

I don't like the resale restrictions, think the location is over rated, and think the MFs are high for what you get.

That being said you like the resort, are okay with points charts, and will stay at Riv most years then get it.

Likely being one of the highest if not the highest WDW resorts for MFs means you better be staying there or what's the point.

Agree, agree, agree. It wasn't even on my list when I bought contract 1 AKL Direct & 2 PVB Resale

Just as an example, if you buy SSR instead at a easily obtainable $95/pt; you're looking at saving $20k-$30k AND have lower dues.

Counterpoint.

- I think first we have to ask if someone is buying direct or resale. They're very different economics. If direct, Riviera is $163/pt @ 200 pts and $157 @ 300 pts. Going direct, SSR and OKW are both still $165/pt. There are no WDW area DVCs that are cheaper per point than Riviera on a direct purchase.

- Combine the above statement with, there are no WDW DVCs that have a longer contract than Riviera. A plus for some, a negative for others.

- If going resale, this is much tougher. Sure, you're saved a bunch of money on your car insurance by.. initial DVC purchase price, but they're not apples to apples. On any 2042 resort, it's already half life. Half price for half life? Nope. The cheapest of them all BRV & BWV are premium locations but sell for $90-$110, a 30-40% discount over Riveria. Of course you can also go with SSR/OKW/AKL that expires in 2054 or 2057 instead, it's only at quarter life (a little les 68-74% life) Quarter price for Quarter life? Most of the time. They'd have to sell for $110-$120 to be the equivalent of Riviera's offer prices. What about PVB/CCV/VGF? At $145ish, we're now looking at a $10-$20/pt difference. On 200 points, that's a $3600 difference. But that's still resale vs direct. Would you pay $3600 for blue card benefits? Let's say no. How about to stay at Riviera for the extra two years? Let's say no. What if you rented the instead then? They'd rent for $2900/year using today's prices. So let's say there's enough to cover the difference.

- But the dues! At $8.31, when Riviera launched only Hilton Head and Vero Beach had higher dues and we've all seen where their prices went. Since then, Aulani has joined them. AKL, OKW, BRV, BWV, and CCV are all within striking distance (less than $1) $1 is still a lot, so let's factor that in. On an annual basis on 200 points, it's $128, $94, $106, $188, $172 more respectively. How close is that? Well if you go to the trouble to pay your annual dues with a gift card so you can stack discounts, then you might care. If you don't, the roughly 6-11% premium isn't truly that important to you when all said and done.

- Let's also take into account also that historically, new resorts have minimal increases. CCV is enjoying that now. PVB is about 2%. VGF is having a blast too. If we take into account CAGR of annual dues, CCV, VGF, PVB, SSR are the only ones that will still be cheaper than RIV in 5 years.

The only thing I can't get over is the resale restrictions. But I have to admit, I've soften up a LOT over Riviera over the past year. All said and done, the financials aren't as terrible as they first seemed especially taking into account the direct perks if they're important to someone.

Even if they're not. If you buy CCV resale (Disclaimer: I'm in contract for CCV resale) then in 2067, you (or your children children) are stuck at CCV fighting the millions of cabin points for the one dozen studios. It might even start before that as bungalow and cabin points lose the option to spread out to 14 other resorts too...

 

[sethschroeder]

- Let's also take into account also that historically, new resorts have minimal increases. CCV is enjoying that now. PVB is about 2%. VGF is having a blast too. If we take into account CAGR of annual dues, CCV, VGF, PVB, SSR are the only ones that will still be cheaper than RIV in 5 years.

Did the math on this back in probably like December and RIV will continue to be the most expensive at WDW.

You are distracted by a large increase based on employee salaries going up. Possibly we get 1 more larger increase but Riviera will start to increase in year 2/3 just like the rest had when they opened.

Remember 2013/14 are the "same year" at VGF just like 2019/2020 are the "same year" at RIV since it opened so late in the year.

https://*******.com/dvc-information/financial/dvc-annual-dues/dvc-annual-dues-history/Sorry can't post link as site is block on here. There should be other spots with historical dues.

Oh and one final thing VGF, POLY, CCV are all attached to a resort. RIV has to take ownership of all costs which does not help it either being so "small" but with stand alone requirements for transportation, ect.

 

[Yinn]

Did the math on this back in probably like December and RIV will continue to be the most expensive at WDW.

You are distracted by a large increase based on employee salaries going up. Possibly we get 1 more larger increase but Riviera will start to increase in year 2/3 just like the rest had when they opened.

Remember 2013/14 are the "same year" at VGF just like 2019/2020 are the "same year" at RIV since it opened so late in the year.

https://*******.com/dvc-information/financial/dvc-annual-dues/dvc-annual-dues-history/Sorry can't post link as site is block on here. There should be other spots with historical dues.

I did the same, except about 6 months before you did and I did them again about a week ago. Riviera will still go up, but some of these lower cost resorts (looking at you BLT) are increasing at a significant clip even when you take out the last year. I'm not saying Riviera will be the cheapest, but they're not as terrible as the initial knee jerk reaction I had. Trying to fair in the look here.

Oh and one final thing VGF, POLY, CCV are all attached to a resort. RIV has to take ownership of all costs which does not help it either being so "small" but with stand alone requirements for transportation, ect.

That's a valid point. There's not enough historical data on a DVC only building, so I can only speculate. My speculation would agree.

 

[Disneygal22]

I'm not sure I understand your rationale. I'm not sure why you would buy direct at all, I don't see an argument here that you could get your money's worth out of the (current) blue card benefits.

If you plan on studios, I'm not sure why Poly isn't in this discussion over Copper. Poly is actually the top value period on that other site's point value, and plenty of studios. Lots of time on the contract, good pricing, good availability. Better cash value compared to Copper, for sure.

I've been studying this a long time, and I would not buy RIV right now. No one knows what will happen in resale. We don't have enough information to know if you are comparing a very valuable Poly contract to a brick of a a RIV. No one knows yet. Direct is not going anywhere. You can always do it later.

That said, I would consider the new California property...

Those are good points!

I would NOT buy at Poly as they ONLY have studios... If i want to bring more people it is not gonna be comfortable in a small studio..

 

[CarolMN]

Sorry can't post link as site is block on here. There should be other spots with historical dues.

The DIS DVC Resource Center has historical dues, and a whole lot more!

https://www.disboards.com/threads/t...-updated-december-2019.3655476/#post-58628435
No need to go elsewhere for that info.

 

[sethschroeder]

I did the same, except about 6 months before you did and I did them again about a week ago. Riviera will still go up, but some of these lower cost resorts (looking at you BLT) are increasing at a significant clip even when you take out the last year. I'm not saying Riviera will be the cheapest, but they're not as terrible as the initial knee jerk reaction I had. Trying to fair in the look here.



That's a valid point. There's not enough historical data on a DVC only building, so I can only speculate. My speculation would agree.

Did you increase RIV by the normal 2-3% you see in year 3? Every resort to open has always went up by that much Poly was below 3% by the 3rd year but at 2%(2nd full year). CCV was also a little different since they had a bigger increase in year 2 (1st full year) so saw year 3 remain fair flat.

I am not sure how when OKW is 6% less (had a huge increase last year for wages) and CCV is 11% less how RIV does not stay the most expensive. Maybe OKW becomes as expensive but doubt it.

How exactly is CCV going to gain 11% MFs over RIV?

 

[Yinn]

Did you increase RIV by the normal 2-3% you see in year 3? Every resort to open has always went up by that much Poly was below 3% by the 3rd year but at 2%(2nd full year). CCV was also a little different since they had a bigger increase in year 2 (1st full year) so saw year 3 remain fair flat.

I am not sure how when OKW is 6% less (had a huge increase last year for wages) and CCV is 11% less how RIV does not stay the most expensive. Maybe OKW becomes as expensive but doubt it.

How exactly is CCV going to gain 11% MFs over RIV?

Used CAGR for all resorts that had them. I averaged out VGF/PVB numbers to use for RIV. I left out CCV as it was still active sale and there was a funky issue with the accuracy of it's dues.

It's not always equal though. Property tax assessments is a good example as these things are in different counties with different assessment rates. And in the case of AKL of which I own, increasing animal care fees as they get older.

The hard part is we can only speculate about RIV, we don't have a nearby resort or like resort in the area to truly compare. So I could be WAY off after the first 3-5 years. Or not. But even using 3% increase, OKW is up around 4% per year. Going back to 2017/2018 before wage increases it was still 4.8%. It was a 6.6% increase the year before that!

If you want an extreme example, Bay Lake Tower is a favorite for low dues. I have it tracking at about 5.5% per year CAGR, and that's with a low 2.8% increase last year. The only resort with a higher CAGR is Hilton Head. If it all holds, it'll do a flip from one of the cheapest to one of the most expensive pretty quickly.

 

[sethschroeder]

Used CAGR for all resorts that had them. I averaged out VGF/PVB numbers to use for RIV. I left out CCV as it was still active sale and there was a funky issue with the accuracy of it's dues.

It's not always equal though. Property tax assessments is a good example as these things are in different counties with different assessment rates. And in the case of AKL of which I own, increasing animal care fees as they get older.

The hard part is we can only speculate about RIV, we don't have a nearby resort or like resort in the area to truly compare. So I could be WAY off after the first 3-5 years. Or not. But even using 3% increase, OKW is up around 4% per year. Going back to 2017/2018 before wage increases it was still 4.8%. It was a 6.6% increase the year before that!

If you want an extreme example, Bay Lake Tower is a favorite for low dues. I have it tracking at about 5.5% per year CAGR, and that's with a low 2.8% increase last year. The only resort with a higher CAGR is Hilton Head. If it all holds, it'll do a flip from one of the cheapest to one of the most expensive pretty quickly.

Again how long though? Seems like if a resort is 10-15% cheaper you are not catching up to being cheaper anytime soon. Even at a 1% difference it will take like a decade.

On top of that Poly and VGF are terrible comparisons. Both those have a small subset DVC and a majority cost shared by the hotel side. Plus those two share busses even right?

I am sorry but your analysis is extremely flawed.

You are also talking the lifetime of OKW vs VGF which is dramatically impacted by having a low increase in year 1 which skews a 7 year old resort.

Did you look year by year OKW vs VGF? VGF which has been 4-7% increases many years?

 

[Yinn]

Again how long though? Seems like if a resort is 10-15% cheaper you are not catching up to being cheaper anytime soon. Even at a 1% difference it will take like a decade.

On top of that Poly and VGF are terrible comparisons. Both those have a small subset DVC and a majority cost shared by the hotel side. Plus those two share busses even right?

I am sorry but your analysis is extremely flawed.

You are also talking the lifetime of OKW vs VGF which is dramatically impacted by having a low increase in year 1 which skews a 7 year old resort.

Did you look year by year OKW vs VGF? VGF which has been 4-7% increases many years?

You're certainly entitled to your own opinion and models. Some people think it'll go up, some think it'll go down. Some people invest for dividends and yields, some invest for growth, others prefer commodities.

What I listed is the primary model I chose to use and go by to model out the initial years - not the entire length of Riviera. The rationale here is that Disney has learned from early DVC mistakes (and lawsuits) and would be able to account for more accurate initial pricing of dues in the more recent resorts. After the initial 3 years, I used a standard 3.3% for the remainder of the term based upon the average increases across WDW specific resorts.

As for how long? Again, that depends on your model. Using historical CAGR, we'll even assume Riviera has a flat 3% YoY increase right out of the gate.

OKW is already at $7.84. At a 4.1% CAGR, OKW will be more expensive than Riviera by 2025.
Boulder Ridge is also 2025.
Beach Club is 2027
BLT is projected at 2030, again assuming CAGR of 5.4% and Riviera at 3%

So it depends on your definition of soon, when you plan on exiting, and again how you run your calculations. For me, 5-10 years out of 40+ year contract is pretty soon, but for someone who's going to exit in 10 years; they'll never see it.

Only time will tell which model is more accurate. So while I'm explaining mine, how about you at least explain some of yours instead of just trying to get into a pissing match with me? You don't have to like it my method, and I'm not even trying to convince you to. Quite frankly, I've refrained from sharing my spreadsheets on the board specifically out of fear someone will take it and assume it's right for their situation when every situation is different. I'm just answering your questions (quite condescendingly made, I might add). So while I'm answering, and you disagree. How about sharing your insights to the specifics as to your calculations and modeling? What did you use for projecting out the annual dues for Riviera? And what was your average projected CAGR for it?

 

[sethschroeder]

Why in the world would the CAGR be 3%-3.3% though for RIV and why are you putting BLT at 5.4% (its 4.9% in its lifetime $3.67 to $6.58 over 12 years).

There is no hard data that suggests that RIV will be at 3% CAGR and that is essentially where any math that you do is going to be incorrect.

It is factual that:
RIV has to cover all its own expenses (except for a shared expense on the Skyliner)
Over the previous 8 years (since VGF launched) the highest CAGR at WDW has been DVC only OKW, BLT, and DVC only SSR all of which were over 4% while the rest of the resorts were under
VGF makes up 14% of the resort, Poly makes up 30% of the resort, BLT makes up 31% of the resort meaning the costs of maintaining the resort are partly taken on by the cash side.
VGF/POLY/BLT/WL all have some degree of shared transportation again offsetting costs between the resorts but all the cash side of the business.
Tax makes up between $1.25-$1.50 per point and RIV would be in the same tax zone as BWV, CCV, BLT, VGF, ect

What factual information are you using to get to RIV being 3%-3.3% when everything would point to it being at the high end of CAGR not the low end?

So while I'm explaining mine, how about you at least explain some of yours instead of just trying to get into a pissing match with me?

I wasn't in front of my computer previously to write out all the various math based on taking recent increases and putting it against the resort. I go based on a more generic even distribution of 3-4.5% on the high and low side for all resorts over time as I feel RIV will fall within the grouping and not be an outlier.

I am also not getting in any pissing match. I simply think you are wrong with no factual information that would back up the data you want to model off of.

OKW is already at $7.84. At a 4.1% CAGR, OKW will be more expensive than Riviera by 2025.

Even with taking your example your math looks to be wrong (4.1% for OKW and 3.0% then 3.3% for RIV). In 2025 it would be $10.03/point at RIV and $9.97/point at OKW and wouldn't flip until 2026 and that is assuming that delta in increases.

OKW is the most likely to pass RIV in the next decade which still would put RIV the #2 most expensive. It likely has to do with tons of stand alone buildings and spread out grounds that is DVC only.

Boulder Ridge is also 2025.

What CAGR are you applying to this? Lifetime CAGR of 3.7% and prior 8 years of 3.7%. If you use the historical rate it would not be until 2046 not 2025 (resort expires in 2042). In order to get it more expensive by 2025 it would need to increase by a whopping 5.2%.

Beach Club is 2027

This is another one which is historical 3.36% and 2.28% prior 8 years. At expiration in 2042 at the 3.36% BCV would be at $14.60/point vs RIV $17.42/point.

BLT is projected at 2030, again assuming CAGR of 5.4% and Riviera at 3%

This one I already brought up but where are you getting a 5.4% CAGR? Lifetime is 4.98% and prior 8 years is 4.86%. This would have it passing RIV in 2036 or 15 years from now.

So sorry if you are taking offense to this but I don't see how your math adds up or how you get to the conclusion on the CAGR to start with. RIV has expensive MFs and while someday it will be come less expensive you would have sunk way more money in to due by then $1 difference in dues now is worth way more than $1 difference in 30 years.

 

[Yinn]

Why in the world would the CAGR be 3%-3.3% though for RIV

Did you increase RIV by the normal 2-3% you see in year 3? Every resort to open has always went up by that much Poly was below 3% by the 3rd year but at 2%(2nd full year). CCV was also a little different since they had a bigger increase in year 2 (1st full year) so saw year 3 remain fair flat.

I am also not getting in any pissing match. I simply think you are wrong with no factual information that would back up the data you want to model off of.

This one I already brought up but where are you getting a 5.4% CAGR? Lifetime is 4.98% and prior 8 years is 4.86%. This would have it passing RIV in 2036 or 15 years from now.

Source 1: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/buying/annual-dues/
They seem to agree with my CAGR numbers. But it's the internet, and we can find anything. And since I don't know if that's a sponsor or not I can't rely on that link alone, so I'll also redo it using the link @CarolMN gave from above.

I had to reverse engineer to figure out where you were getting your numbers from to see why we have different numbers. For transparency, this is the formula I used. Let me know if you used something different.

Compound Annual Growth Rate Formula: CAGR = (End Value/Start Value)^(1/Years)-1.

BLT 2020: 6.58
BLT 2009: 3.67

You get your 4.98% calculation if you use it based on 12 years.
(6.58/3.67)^(1/12)-1= 0.04985 or 4.985%

You get my 5.4% calculation if you base it off of 11 years.
(6.58/3.67)^(1/11)-1= 0.05451 or 5.451%

I'm guessing the reasoning as to why you used 12 years is that you're counting 2009 as Year 1. Which makes 2020 Year 12. If it's not, please elaborate.

The reason I used 11 years is because while there's 12 years of dues, there's only 11 years of increases or 11 times of growth.

Again, I can't stress enough that you're free to use your model if you believe it's more accurate. But that is where we differ and why we have different numbers.

When I plug it into excel, I used the inception amount. Under the 3rd column, I take the initial 3.67 and multiply it by 1.0498. The result then is compounded and 1.0498% taken of that and so forth. The same applies for column 4 using the rate of 5.45% instead.



And while we're only one year apart when we use the CAGR formula, that results in wildly different projections 25 years down the road if we maintain our projections.

[/QUOTE]

 

[RoseGold]

If you buy CCV resale (Disclaimer: I'm in contract for CCV resale) then in 2067, you (or your children children) are stuck at CCV fighting the millions of cabin points for the one dozen studios.

I was thinking this math couldn't possibly be right, but wowza. 79 studios and 26 cabins. That's rough.

 

[sethschroeder]

I'm guessing the reasoning as to why you used 12 years is that you're counting 2009 as Year 1. Which makes 2020 Year 12. If it's not, please elaborate.

I incorrectly calculated it last night when doing it.

Corrected with your 3.0%/3.3% RIV math:
BRV - 3.89% Lifetime (2033) / 4.31% since VGF launch (2027)
BCV - 3.54% Lifetime (Never) / 3.26% since VGF launch (Never)
BLT - 5.45% Lifetime (2032) / 5.57% since VGF launch (2031)
VGF - 2.79% Lifetime (Never)

We are essentially a decade out based on Lifetime and shorter based on the VGF launch date (2013). In addition BCV and VGF would never have higher MFs.

Again why 3.0% and 3.3% on RIV? I just don't see any way to spin it to make it one of the lowest in the CAGR starting year 3 of the resort.

The only 2 resorts lower than 3.3% would be BWV and BCV. Both of which have a drastically lower requirements for transportation as they share busses for 2 parks (BWV, BCV, YC, Swan, Dolphin), have a good portion of guests that walk at least to Epcot, and have a very low cost transportation in boats (which again is shared among the resorts and possibly even Epcot/HS budget. Flip side Riviera has over 2x the cost for transportation than BWV as an example (possibly requirement to have busses on standby for storms may cost money even if not used for RIV not sure).

For RIV approximately Front Desk ($1.02), Insurance ($0.07), Legal ($0.0008), Maintenance ($0.66), Security ($0.04), Transportation ($1.13), and Utilities ($0.35) are all impacted by being DVC only in some manner. That is 56% of the resort specific budget that is impacted in some manner by being a stand alone resort.