Riviera Pricing Released

[KAT4DISNEY]

It absolutely caught my attention before buying. I was disappointed in the MF cost.

However - a few things balanced against it.

1- if the MF was $1 less per pt I would have thought it was reasonable

2- the actual price per pt was about $18 less per pt then I expected. That is about 18 years of maintenance cost difference then my expectation. So the core value prop I was expecting was about the same.

3- MF have controls (they can’t just make them up - they are tied to real costs). I figured there is nothing except the gondola that will make this resort inherently more expensive and I am buying it in large part for the gondola. So - overtime - it will normalize around the real costs and the premium I will be paying will be for a feature I really want well maintained. So I can live with it.

All together - rationalizing it or not -it got me past the initial MF being high.

A few on the internet were the ones who had it priced over $200/pt. Many did not since the current resort on sales has usually indicated the pricing of the new one too. But it seems like a lot we're prepared to break the $200 mark and Disney is leaving money on the table.

 

[lovin'fl]

A few on the internet were the ones who had it priced over $200/pt. Many did not since the current resort on sales has usually indicated the pricing of the new one too. But it seems like a lot we're prepared to break the $200 mark and Disney is leaving money on the table.

They won't for long. I am sure increases are forthcoming.

 

[skier_pete]

I am not sure why everyone thought they would jump the price point that much. They are selling a product that doesn't yet exist and are also still selling CCV. Plus the price point I'm sorry is already ridiculously high. I mean, sure it wouldn't surprise me if they tried, but to say "they left money on the table" there IS a point where this whole thing is no longer a value for the consumer, and they are approaching that point.

 

[skier_pete]

It will be interesting to see if it has any effect on BCV/BWV prices. While it's only marginally more expensive for another 27 years of contract, the point structure is WAY higher.

Riviera: $176 for 150 points after incentives works out to an effective cost of $11.83 per point ($3.52 /pt /yr plus $8.31 MF)

BWV: $120 works out to an effective $12.39 per point ($5.22 /pt /yr + $7.17 MF)

BUT, a preferred view studio in Magic Season is 26 points at Riviera and only 18 points at BWV. So, really the true cost ends up being far cheaper at BWV ($223) vs Riviera ($322).

This is a factor that SO many people neglect - how many points you actually need to book at a resort. Part of the reason I ended up buying a contract with the short lifetime and higher buy-in of BWV was that I realized that I can get into Standard rooms if I own there. So even though the points cost me more per point I save money

My AKV points are $9.29 per point using that same calculation and BWV is $12.09 a point.
if I book my 5 nights in the fall, the standard view is 54 points and the pool/garden/boadwalk view is 76 points (if I can even get in at 7-months/waitlist).

So that makes the cost if the standard view with BWV points at $653, and the pool view with my AKV points $706.

 

[aoconnor]

My AKV points are $9.29 per point using that same calculation and BWV is $12.09 a point.
if I book my 5 nights in the fall, the standard view is 54 points and the pool/garden/boadwalk view is 76 points (if I can even get in at 7-months/waitlist).

So that makes the cost if the standard view with BWV points at $653, and the pool view with my AKV points $706.

Wow! Would not have thought that BWV standard could be even "cheaper" than AKV standard. I'm sure it depends on the season but goes to show that the point chart is in some ways a bigger driver than the initial point cost or contract duration.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I am not sure why everyone thought they would jump the price point that much. They are selling a product that doesn't yet exist and are also still selling CCV. Plus the price point I'm sorry is already ridiculously high. I mean, sure it wouldn't surprise me if they tried, but to say "they left money on the table" there IS a point where this whole thing is no longer a value for the consumer, and they are approaching that point.

When people are stating they thought it would be so much higher and are thinking what deal with the discounts then it's very possible they left money on the table. Then the hope is that they get enough who would not have otherwise bought.

It's like direct/resale. They think they're missing out on sales with every resale. Of course that's not the case but they'll see it as money left on the table they could have had in their pockets.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Wow! Would not have thought that BWV standard could be even "cheaper" than AKV standard. I'm sure it depends on the season but goes to show that the point chart is in some ways a bigger driver than the initial point cost or contract duration.

I did a spreadsheet years and years ago to show me what the room cost actually was because point requirements and dues definitely play a large part. As mentioned the point creep of the new resorts vs older resort requirements is often overlooked. In the past that usually at least mean somewhat lower dues. Actual maintenance costs should not vary a great deal from resort to resort so theoretically if you have more points to spread the costs over the dues should be lower. Not with Riviera though. PVB also threw that trend aside a bit but not like Riviera does.

 

[crvetter]

This is a factor that SO many people neglect - how many points you actually need to book at a resort. Part of the reason I ended up buying a contract with the short lifetime and higher buy-in of BWV was that I realized that I can get into Standard rooms if I own there. So even though the points cost me more per point I save money

My AKV points are $9.29 per point using that same calculation and BWV is $12.09 a point.
if I book my 5 nights in the fall, the standard view is 54 points and the pool/garden/boadwalk view is 76 points (if I can even get in at 7-months/waitlist).

So that makes the cost if the standard view with BWV points at $653, and the pool view with my AKV points $706.

This is my biggest issue when the brokers do their "cheapest" resort to purchase, I've raised your exact issue in regards to Copper Creek's direct price and dues being high but it's cost relatively lower middle of the pack against the other resorts. These types of analysis, as you mentioned, completely neglect/ignore the point charts also and base it on solely the point cost and MF per point. I looked at the average nightly point cost per a room for 2019 and took the cost per point to own (as you suggested) to see where Riviera would fall.

Doing this type of analysis across all results, on an yearly average view, including Riviera (starting with this information for the average resale prices, https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2019/) and priced Riviera at 175 a point assuming some level of discount or renting of 1 year of points, I found the following (have the other sizes but the Studios are of the most interest probably). I think this information is useful if you are buying where you want to stay (limit down your choices) vs buying where you wouldn't mind to stay (buy the cheapest of the one you wouldn't mind staying at). Ignoring the Value Studios it is quite the spread between 130 a night at Saratoga to 280 a night at Riviera. Even with this in mind I'm still considering a small add-on (only after seeing it in person) at Riviera for F&W since BCV & BWV Preferred are similarly priced according to this chart, and if I have to sell do to finances I'll get rid of my other points first.

Studios


EDIT: A huge caveat to this chart is nightly room cost at the resort, using home resort points. Personally I have extended this to a matrix to look at the cost of using non-home resort points. However, you need to start considering if you have to up-size your room vs not needing to up-size if you had Home Resort privileges. For instance only wanting a studio but jumping up to a 1 bedroom (or more expensive views) to stay at the resort consistently, this would likely eat away savings.

 

[ELMC]

2- the actual price per pt was about $18 less per pt then I expected. That is about 18 years of maintenance cost difference then my expectation. So the core value prop I was expecting was about the same.

This statement reflects a genius execution of strategy by Disney. Four years ago we were talking about BLT going up to $165 per point as ridiculous, blasphemous, insane, etc. etc. So what does Disney do? They go up even higher. Now all of a sudden direct prices are $200 a point, $225 a point. By comparison $188 per point before incentives at the Riviera is less than what people have been conditioned to expect. It's brilliant.

there IS a point where this whole thing is no longer a value for the consumer, and they are approaching that point.

Some might argue that they already blew past that point.

 

[skier_pete]

Wow! Would not have thought that BWV standard could be even "cheaper" than AKV standard. I'm sure it depends on the season but goes to show that the point chart is in some ways a bigger driver than the initial point cost or contract duration.

Sorry - I think you misunderstand. I'm saying using my AKV points at BWV for a higher-point value room costs me "more" than using more expensive BWV points for the lower-point room. Using my AKV points and AKV are still cheaper than that.

 

[skier_pete]

Doing this type of analysis across all results, on an yearly average view, including Riviera (starting with this information for the average resale prices, https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2019/) and priced Riviera at 175 a point assuming some level of discount or renting of 1 year of points, I found the following (have the other sizes but the Studios are of the most interest probably). I think this information is useful if you are buying where you want to stay (limit down your choices) vs buying where you wouldn't mind to stay (buy the cheapest of the one you wouldn't mind staying at). Ignoring the Value Studios it is quite the spread between 130 a night at Saratoga to 280 a night at Riviera. Even with this in mind I'm still considering a small add-on (only after seeing it in person) at Riviera for F&W since BCV & BWV Preferred are similarly priced according to this chart, and if I have to sell do to finances I'll get rid of my other points first.

@crvetter that is a bloody brilliant chart. It shows how expensive Riviera rooms are relative to everywhere else. You do point out that it is pretty close to BCV and BWV (preferred) rooms - which while nice I just don't see that resort as being quite on par with BCV/BWV, even with the gondolas. BCV has Stormalong Bay and BWV has the Boardwalk and all the dining and nightlife of that area between the two resorts. Riviera just doesn't rate IMO with those two resorts. Pretty damning that a Poly standard view room is cheaper too - that place has brutal point charts.

Your chart makes me continue to circle back to BLT - I really need to stay there and try it out.

 

[aoconnor]

Doing this type of analysis across all results, on an yearly average view, including Riviera (starting with this information for the average resale prices, https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2019/) and priced Riviera at 175 a point assuming some level of discount or renting of 1 year of points, I found the following (have the other sizes but the Studios are of the most interest probably). I think this information is useful if you are buying where you want to stay (limit down your choices) vs buying where you wouldn't mind to stay (buy the cheapest of the one you wouldn't mind staying at). Ignoring the Value Studios it is quite the spread between 130 a night at Saratoga to 280 a night at Riviera. Even with this in mind I'm still considering a small add-on (only after seeing it in person) at Riviera for F&W since BCV & BWV Preferred are similarly priced according to this chart, and if I have to sell do to finances I'll get rid of my other points first.

Studios
View attachment 391289

Great chart! The only thing this doesn't factor is the opportunity cost of the initial buy-in. I would love to see a version with a small 2-3% opportunity cost factored in.. it would move some of those results around materially.

I know people say "I would have used that money for vacations anyways" so opportunity cost doesn't count, but who has $20,30,50k+ sitting in cash just for vacations?

I understand you may not have put that money in the stock market, but at a minimum it could be in a savings account or risk-free treasury bond earning 2-3%.

 

[MB_01]

This is my biggest issue when the brokers do their "cheapest" resort to purchase, I've raised your exact issue in regards to Copper Creek's direct price and dues being high but it's cost relatively lower middle of the pack against the other resorts. These types of analysis, as you mentioned, completely neglect/ignore the point charts also and base it on solely the point cost and MF per point. I looked at the average nightly point cost per a room for 2019 and took the cost per point to own (as you suggested) to see where Riviera would fall.

Doing this type of analysis across all results, on an yearly average view, including Riviera (starting with this information for the average resale prices, https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2019/) and priced Riviera at 175 a point assuming some level of discount or renting of 1 year of points, I found the following (have the other sizes but the Studios are of the most interest probably). I think this information is useful if you are buying where you want to stay (limit down your choices) vs buying where you wouldn't mind to stay (buy the cheapest of the one you wouldn't mind staying at). Ignoring the Value Studios it is quite the spread between 130 a night at Saratoga to 280 a night at Riviera. Even with this in mind I'm still considering a small add-on (only after seeing it in person) at Riviera for F&W since BCV & BWV Preferred are similarly priced according to this chart, and if I have to sell do to finances I'll get rid of my other points first.

Studios
View attachment 391289

So with the existing Riviera point chart they are charging $200/pt+ compared to CCV. Looks like ~$215pp

 

[Drewferin]

I'd love to see this exact chart with the addition of 1 bedroom villas. Based on my math AKV 1 bdr units are still cheaper per night than alot of DVC studios.

 

[crvetter]

So with the existing Riviera point chart they are charging $200/pt+ compared to CCV. Looks like ~$215pp

I'm not sure what you are asking. Are you asking what is the price per point at CCV they would need to be so the average nightly room costs are the same between Riviera and CCV? If so CCV would need to sell for $300 points (after incentives) for it's nightly room cost to be equivalent to that of Riviera. CCV was cheap by today's standards of DVC direct pricing.

Great chart! The only thing this doesn't factor is the opportunity cost of the initial buy-in. I would love to see a version with a small 2-3% opportunity cost factored in.. it would move some of those results around materially.

I know people say "I would have used that money for vacations anyways" so opportunity cost doesn't count, but who has $20,30,50k+ sitting in cash just for vacations?

I understand you may not have put that money in the stock market, but at a minimum it could be in a savings account or risk-free treasury bond earning 2-3%.

Assuming you had the cash today another vehicle to look at for opportunity cost (analogous to buying DVC) would be to buy an annuity, which pays out X per year for the length of the contract assuming a 3% rate of return. I'm also assuming the rate of return and rate of inflation on the MF is identical at 3%. I thought this was a fair compromise to show without muddying up the message I intended and avoids the whole is DVC cheaper than renting cash which wasn't the intention of this exercise. I will say because I assume MF inflation identical to my return rate this causes Vero and Hilton Head to jump to being cheaper by a lot, this is because their buy-in is significantly cheaper. This might not be fair since they exhibit a much higher historical inflation on the MF than the other resorts, and I don't recommend buying for at WDW anyways because if you have to stay there means you can't go to WDW or DLR same with Aulani, so they fall out of the "buy where you don't mind mentality".

Also the analysis is somewhat flawed because each of these were done with their own length of contract. So they ignore any reinvestment risk that might occur, this being the biggest reason I'm interested in Riviera in that I know what my cost is for 50 years and not worry about what I need to buy once the other contract expires. So someone could by BWV with its 23 years left but intending to use DVC for 50 years. Well this analysis ignores that component, it essentially assumes reinvestment risk (buying another DVC contract) is 0 and you will be able to buy essentially at the same price and point chart as the initial contract. So while the BWV buyer might be saving money for the first 23 years they could end up losing money if they re-buy into DVC another contract that lengthens their overall contract with DVC. I'm going to assume that is actually something a lot of the buyers on this board thought about, especially those that are younger not wanting to buy again in the future at a more expensive rate.

Deluxe Studios

Sorry - I think you misunderstand. I'm saying using my AKV points at BWV for a higher-point value room costs me "more" than using more expensive BWV points for the lower-point room. Using my AKV points and AKV are still cheaper than that.

Yeah agreed this shows the value of home resort priority, which is a bit different but another powerful thing that can't be forgotten. If you buy "cheap" points to stay in consistently stay in more expensive rooms point wise (because of availability issues at 7 months not because those are the rooms you want) you might not actually be saving any money in the long run as buying the home resort to get those cheaper points rooms.

 

[STA]

Hi CRVETTER,

Are these charts based on revised 2020 charts or the ones with the reallocations? It would be interesting to see if the relative values and ranks change... thanks for sharing!

I'm not sure what you are asking. Are you asking what is the price per point at CCV they would need to be so the average nightly room costs are the same between Riviera and CCV? If so CCV would need to sell for $300 points (after incentives) for it's nightly room cost to be equivalent to that of Riviera. CCV was cheap by today's standards of DVC direct pricing.

Assuming you had the cash today another vehicle to look at for opportunity cost (analogous to buying DVC) would be to buy an annuity, which pays out X per year for the length of the contract assuming a 3% rate of return. I'm also assuming the rate of return and rate of inflation on the MF is identical at 3%. I thought this was a fair compromise to show without muddying up the message I intended and avoids the whole is DVC cheaper than renting cash which wasn't the intention of this exercise. I will say because I assume MF inflation identical to my return rate this causes Vero and Hilton Head to jump to being cheaper by a lot, this is because their buy-in is significantly cheaper. This might not be fair since they exhibit a much higher historical inflation on the MF than the other resorts, and I don't recommend buying for at WDW anyways because if you have to stay there means you can't go to WDW or DLR same with Aulani, so they fall out of the "buy where you don't mind mentality".

Also the analysis is somewhat flawed because each of these were done with their own length of contract. So they ignore any reinvestment risk that might occur, this being the biggest reason I'm interested in Riviera in that I know what my cost is for 50 years and not worry about what I need to buy once the other contract expires. So someone could by BWV with its 23 years left but intending to use DVC for 50 years. Well this analysis ignores that component, it essentially assumes reinvestment risk (buying another DVC contract) is 0 and you will be able to buy essentially at the same price and point chart as the initial contract. So while the BWV buyer might be saving money for the first 23 years they could end up losing money if they re-buy into DVC another contract that lengthens their overall contract with DVC. I'm going to assume that is actually something a lot of the buyers on this board thought about, especially those that are younger not wanting to buy again in the future at a more expensive rate.

Deluxe Studios
View attachment 391312


Yeah agreed this shows the value of home resort priority, which is a bit different but another powerful thing that can't be forgotten. If you buy "cheap" points to stay in consistently stay in more expensive rooms point wise (because of availability issues at 7 months not because those are the rooms you want) you might not actually be saving any money in the long run as buying the home resort to get those cheaper points rooms.

 

[crvetter]

Hi CRVETTER,

Are these charts based on revised 2020 charts or the ones with the reallocations? It would be interesting to see if the relative values and ranks change... thanks for sharing!

These charts are based on the 2019 charts, which are similar (aside from holidays) 2020 charts.

 

[Mikey15]

These charts are based on the 2019 charts, which are similar (aside from holidays) 2020 charts.

And the Riviera dues and points info that’s been released is 2020, right?

I’m thinking the gap is going to close a bit once the 2021 points chart and 2020 dues come out for the L14 resorts.

 

[crvetter]

And the Riviera dues and points info that’s been released is 2020, right?

I’m thinking the gap is going to close a bit once the 2021 points chart and 2020 dues come out for the L14 resorts.

Yes I used the 2020 points for the appropriate seasons in 2019 for Riviera; I am assuming this is valid assumption since 2019 and 2020 final charts are the same across resorts. I could do the same analysis for 2020 but it won't change much because the point charts are the same.

Though if the original 2020 charts told us anything they intend to increase studio costs across the board so I don't think we can expect too much movement here in terms of rankings, but the actual prices might differ (but I even think the spreads would remain the same). Just repeating the exercise with the original 2020 charts is too time consuming (for me to do since no online calculator exists for determining the points for an entire year of booking) and we have no basis to compare Riviera too.

 

[Mumof4mice]

This is my biggest issue when the brokers do their "cheapest" resort to purchase, I've raised your exact issue in regards to Copper Creek's direct price and dues being high but it's cost relatively lower middle of the pack against the other resorts. These types of analysis, as you mentioned, completely neglect/ignore the point charts also and base it on solely the point cost and MF per point. I looked at the average nightly point cost per a room for 2019 and took the cost per point to own (as you suggested) to see where Riviera would fall.

Doing this type of analysis across all results, on an yearly average view, including Riviera (starting with this information for the average resale prices, https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2019/) and priced Riviera at 175 a point assuming some level of discount or renting of 1 year of points, I found the following (have the other sizes but the Studios are of the most interest probably). I think this information is useful if you are buying where you want to stay (limit down your choices) vs buying where you wouldn't mind to stay (buy the cheapest of the one you wouldn't mind staying at). Ignoring the Value Studios it is quite the spread between 130 a night at Saratoga to 280 a night at Riviera. Even with this in mind I'm still considering a small add-on (only after seeing it in person) at Riviera for F&W since BCV & BWV Preferred are similarly priced according to this chart, and if I have to sell do to finances I'll get rid of my other points first.

Studios
View attachment 391289

EDIT: A huge caveat to this chart is nightly room cost at the resort, using home resort points. Personally I have extended this to a matrix to look at the cost of using non-home resort points. However, you need to start considering if you have to up-size your room vs not needing to up-size if you had Home Resort privileges. For instance only wanting a studio but jumping up to a 1 bedroom (or more expensive views) to stay at the resort consistently, this would likely eat away savings.

Excellent chart. Thank you for sharing it!