Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

[anomamatt]

If you have multiple children a trust does not protect against usage or even the issues of passing it on to children who may or may not be interested in it. It just makes it more simple to do it without probate. It can get just as messy with a trust for those children unless they all agree 100% of the time as well as their spouses agreeing 100% of the time and their children etc. etc.

Sure, nothing is foolproof or simple with someone passing away. We have two kids and we have contracts setup so they can be evenly divided. Sure, that means additional closing costs, but also makes it easier to sell. It also means the number of contracts we have is a bit out of control given that each resort has two contracts (and we own at 5 different resorts), haha.

On the topic of interest and ability to pay, etc. Yep, we can always sell if we think a kid won't be interested, etc. Plenty of time to figure all of that out.

My main point was just to push back on the idea that "I'll be dead, who cares about the other years" when it *could* be leaving value on the table.

 

[Sandisw]

Except when you take years left into account. More than twice as many with RIV actually makes it cheaper for those of us planning on utilizing all those years.

This is me right now, Considering selling one of my 2042 at a decent profit to buy RIV with a 2070 end date. Of course, primary goal is to put my three adult children on the deed so they are owners and will benefit from being blue card. Given the plan, it wI’ll cost me about $7k...sale and point difference..

My kids do like RIV and it’s looks plus the ease to the 2 parks. So that is a plus. And I have plenty of other points to sell down the road if I needed so the restrictions seem less important now. Of course, my thinking a month ago was not this...I wouldn’t touch the resort. But, after some discussions, with my kids, it makes sense.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

This is me right now, Considering selling one of my 2042 at a decent profit to buy RIV with a 2070 end date. Of course, primary goal is to put my three adult children on the deed so they are owners and will benefit from being blue card. Given the plan, it wI’ll cost me about $7k...sale and point difference..

My kids do like RIV and it’s looks plus the ease to the 2 parks. So that is a plus. And I have plenty of other points to sell down the road if I needed so the restrictions seem less important now. Of course, my thinking a month ago was not this...I wouldn’t touch the resort. But, after some discussions, with my kids, it makes sense.

And I'll point out again - the blue card can be gotten for them for about $100-$400 by adding them to a qualified contract you already own! Are they going to contribute to the "exchange" that they've decided they like Riviera that much more that it's worth paying for it? Just a thought that ran thru my head now - it's nice to look at something and say sure, I like that a lot when there's no cost for it. Or maybe I'm the only one with family like that.

 

[Sandisw]

And I'll point out again - the blue card can be gotten for them for about $100-$400 by adding them to a qualified contract you already own!

Yes, I know that. We are doing that. But it doesn’t change the additional 28 years of ownership, which from my standpoint and that of my kids, is a big plus.

Plus the profit I make selling the 2042 will bring my total out of pocket for Rivera down quite a bit, So, it’s become win win. 95% sure we are going to do,,,of course, the contract would have to sell first..but leaning that way.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Yes, I know that. We are doing that. But it doesn’t change the additional 28 years of ownership, which from my standpoint and that of my kids, is a big plus.

Plus the profit I make selling the 2042 will bring my total out of pocket for Rivera down quite a bit, So, it’s become win win. 95% sure we are going to do,,,of course, the contract would have to sell first..but leaning that way.

Your post mentioned the primary goal is to add your children as qualified owners. Not all readers might even be aware you can add owners to an existing contract and don't need to do a full exchange.

My apologies for the apparently poor attempt to joke with you since I had mentioned it originally to you.

 

[Sandisw]

Your post mentioned the primary goal is to add your children as qualified owners. Not all readers might even be aware you can add owners to an existing contract and don't need to do a full exchange.

My apologies for the apparently poor attempt to joke with you since I had mentioned it originally to you.

Hahaha. I took it as a joke too! But yeah, I agree others might not realize that can happen with a simply deed change. No apologizes needed and mine if it seemed more than just sharing my continued thought process since you suggested that..which was such a great idea and is in process.

What it will do is allow my purchase of RIV be part of that same membership, so now the kids will be owners of 300 SSR points and the new points when that happens. Keeps my memberhsips at 3 vs 4!

 

[anomamatt]

This is me right now, Considering selling one of my 2042 at a decent profit to buy RIV with a 2070 end date. Of course, primary goal is to put my three adult children on the deed so they are owners and will benefit from being blue card. Given the plan, it wI’ll cost me about $7k...sale and point difference..

$7K for 28 additional years (2042 vs 2070)? Same number of points? If so... Sign me up!

 

[Sandisw]

$7K for 28 additional years (2042 vs 2070)? Same number of points? If so... Sign me up!

Actually 20 points less. I’ll sell 150 to buy 130..so my total will go from 800 to 780.

But that will be net result to sell the 2042 and buy RIV. It’s why it’s become pretty much what we will do.

 

[RivShore]

Yes that makes sense but I did say I consider years left for the value of selling them, which is why I am struggling with Riviera because even though the contract length will be longer, I am estimating that due to it only being usable at one resort it will be worth much less than it otherwise would without the restrictions by the time I am looking to sell. More length means worth more, but when comparing between resorts, what is the discount for only being useable at riviera? I have no idea in the future what this discount will be but if I compare to BLT, would someone pay more for Riv than BLT right now in resale? The answer is no, despite there being ten more years on the contract. With that in mind, why would I buy riviera direct and spend $40 pp extra and an extra $1.50per point in MF if I know I'm going to sell before expiration and already people have discounted Riv way below other contracts that have ten+ years less left on them?

I am not saying riviera isn't a beautiful resort. It looks awesome and my wife wants to stay there badly, but looking at the numbers it doesn't make sense to me to buy dvc at riviera. Also I only started even trying to factor in selling as the direct prices have skyrocketed; originally it wasn't really necessary because dvc could actually save you money in the foreseeable future without having to sell.

The one thing we can say with certainty is that in 23 years the 2042 contracts will be worth zero and RIV will be worth something more than zero. All depends on your assumed timeline...

 

[Jenniebee]

I like the theming and location of the resort, so I wouldn't mind buying a CHEAP small (75 points or so) resale contract down the line to stay there every other year (to add onto my current L14 contract).

But it's not cheap, and the MF's are the highest on WDW property. IDK for me the cons way outweigh the plusses. I agree it is a lovely resort, and I would totally love to book a stay there, but I really don't get it as buying into DVC.

 

[anomamatt]

the MF's are the highest on WDW property.

For now.

Keep in mind three things:

1) CCV's dues were initially considered very high, but have not increased at the same rates as the other resorts (by design).

2) For RVA, 2020 dues will be the same as 2019 dues.

3) Non RVA resorts are due to increase at a large rate for two more years (to account for the increased starting pay of $15/hour).

 

[crvetter]

For now.

Keep in mind three things:

1) CCV's dues were initially considered very high, but have not increased at the same rates as the other resorts (by design).

2) For RVA, 2020 dues will be the same as 2019 dues.

3) Non RVA resorts are due to increase at a large rate for two more years (to account for the increased starting pay of $15/hour).

^^This is important: Taxes are overestimated likely, 2019 dues (for 2 weeks) is likely just the 2020 estimated dues, and the average minimum hourly rate the other resorts experienced in 2019 is $12.16 (weighted by the calendar) year and RVA is at $13 for it's 2 weeks and all resorts are at $13.25 for 2020. This is a 7% increase in this cost for the year compared to 20% increase they experienced from 2018 to 2019.

I suspect RVA will have a flat or very mild increase where we see about 33-50% of the increase we saw for 2019 at the other resorts.

I would suspect we see the other resorts approaching $8 next year (maybe some breaking) as the average minimum wage for 2020 ($13.25) is higher by 9% for the existing 14 compared to 2019 ($12.16). For reference 2019 was 20% higher than 2018 ($10.00).

As for Riviera there is only an increase of about 2% for the average minimum wage this resort will experience for 2020 ($13.25) compared to 2019 ($13.00), since Riviera is currently projected to open December 16, 2019. With it being open for only 15 days in 2019 they might have just used the expected wages for 2020 so it might experience less increase than the 2% this would suggest.

Minimum wages for 2019 and 2020 are:
January and February - $11
March through August - $12
September through Spetember 2020 - $13
October 2020 through September 2021 - $14
October 2021 forward - $15

 

[Soap_1984]

Hahaha. I took it as a joke too! But yeah, I agree others might not realize that can happen with a simply deed change. No apologizes needed and mine if it seemed more than just sharing my continued thought process since you suggested that..which was such a great idea and is in process.

What it will do is allow my purchase of RIV be part of that same membership, so now the kids will be owners of 300 SSR points and the new points when that happens. Keeps my memberhsips at 3 vs 4!

The one thing we can say with certainty is that in 23 years the 2042 contracts will be worth zero and RIV will be worth something more than zero. All depends on your assumed timeline...

Exactly my point. It will be worth something more, but I have no idea how much. With 50 years left we have two data points that average about $120/pp (I don't know the size of the $100/pt contract so I assumed it was 175), which is a discount of $68/pp before the resort even opens. Riv might sell a ton quickly and trade closer to $188, I have no idea the resort isn't even open yet.

What I do know is you are being asked to pay a tremendous amount more compared to OKW (more than double up front + $1/pt/year *1.04^22) for it too; will it be worth more than that amount is the question I do not know the answer to. Basically, I am just putting much more weight on what I know with certainty and weighing the first 10-20 years more than the last 10-20 years because that is my expected window of usage.

It would be easier to analyze 2042 OKW for me because I figure I can use it to that point, I can determine how much money I am saving or not at a given price point. If I save money from year 8-22 then I don't need it to be worth anything when it expires; at the very least I can figure out a price at which it makes sense to buy. By 2042 if I bought Riv, I have saved no money so the value at that date really matters, and as you stated we know it will be worth more than OKW, but how much I have no idea. RIV looks incredible to me, I don't blame people for buying I would like to own there, I just can't justify it in my situation primarily due to the price coupled with the restrictions.

 

[Sandisw]

Exactly my point. It will be worth something more, but I have no idea how much. With 50 years left we have two data points that average about $120/pp (I don't know the size of the $100/pt contract so I assumed it was 175), which is a discount of $68/pp before the resort even opens. Riv might sell a ton quickly and trade closer to $188, I have no idea the resort isn't even open yet.

What I do know is you are being asked to pay a tremendous amount more compared to OKW (more than double up front + $1/pt/year *1.04^22) for it too; will it be worth more than that amount is the question I do not know the answer to. Basically, I am just putting much more weight on what I know with certainty and weighing the first 10-20 years more than the last 10-20 years because that is my expected window of usage.

It would be easier to analyze 2042 OKW for me because I figure I can use it to that point, I can determine how much money I am saving or not at a given price point. If I save money from year 8-22 then I don't need it to be worth anything when it expires; at the very least I can figure out a price at which it makes sense to buy. By 2042 if I bought Riv, I have saved no money so the value at that date really matters, and as you stated we know it will be worth more than OKW, but how much I have no idea. RIV looks incredible to me, I don't blame people for buying I would like to own there, I just can't justify it in my situation primarily due to the price coupled with the restrictions.

Which is why everyone’s situation is unique and nothing about a RIV can be generalized, other than it is not the same as every other resort in terms of resale value since it will become a one resort timeshare.

I am a prime example of being someone who never thought I’d consider it to 95% sure I’ll own in the next few months.

My advice for any new buyer is to consider what owning DVC will cost you in comparisons to cash stays and are you okay with that. While DVC has a decent resale value, I caution anyone to consider that when buying. With RIV, I think you have to go in assuming that the restrictions will impact resale value down the road and if you can’t afford to lose the initial buy I if you have trouble selling in an emergency, the one might want to consider something else with a proven ability to sell,

Now, in 5 years, when more contracts hit the market and sell, then one will have a better understanding. It will never be worth $0 and I think it will average at a 50% loss, But that is just my assumption.

 

[kboo]

I am a prime example of being someone who never thought I’d consider it to 95% sure I’ll own in the next few months.

Me too! Actually, I thought I would buy a small resale contract there to use for split stays there with my MK resorts, but ended up deciding for a number of reasons that the smallish savings wouldn't be worth the wait. I still think that RIV resale is really only a good idea when the owner has other, less- or unrestricted points elsewhere.You're hedged a little.

 

[AdamsMum]

It could also be that people have no interest in owning Rivera. I know we sure don’t. I only want points at resorts where we can walk to a theme park.

Add to that the number of points required for stays. No thanks. I will stay at BCV or BWV.

I also don't see any Disney theme to Riviera...big highrise hotel is all I see. That might change when it opens. As a BC/BW owner I agree the value of being able to walk to 2 theme parks from my resort is huge for me. I always hated the exodus at park closing and waiting for buses. I purchased without ever staying there for the location alone.

 

[Sandisw]

Me too! Actually, I thought I would buy a small resale contract there to use for split stays there with my MK resorts, but ended up deciding for a number of reasons that the smallish savings wouldn't be worth the wait. I still think that RIV resale is really only a good idea when the owner has other, less- or unrestricted points elsewhere.You're hedged a little.

Exactly. Since we will still Have 600 points whose resale restrictions are not Limited to sell if we had to, owning 130 at RIV won’t be that big of a deal since my plan would be that those points would be the last to ever go!

Now I just have to get my 2042 sold and the names added to my current membership so that the new points can go there! Good thing is we are in no rush! Just hope the price for RIV doesn’t go up in the few months this could take!

 

[Akck]

Exactly. Since we will still Have 600 points whose resale restrictions are not Limited to sell if we had to, owning 130 at RIV won’t be that big of a deal since my plan would be that those points would be the last to ever go!

Now I just have to get my 2042 sold and the names added to my current membership so that the new points can go there! Good thing is we are in no rush! Just hope the price for RIV doesn’t go up in the few months this could take!

Hate to the bearer of bad news, but our guide said RIV price would go up as they get closer to opening. He had no idea on the timing (before vs. after), but he had a price it would go up as he told us the cost difference if we waited.

 

[ammo]

The one thing we can say with certainty is that in 23 years the 2042 contracts will be worth zero and RIV will be worth something more than zero. All depends on your assumed timeline...

I'm not sure anyone can say that with certainty. With the passage of another 23 years it will be 2042. But what will have happened to or been offered on the 2042 contracts, we simply don't know.

 

[Brianstl]

I'm not sure anyone can say that with certainty. With the passage of another 23 years it will be 2042. But what will have happened to or been offered on the 2042 contracts, we simply don't know.

RIV and other post 2042 contracts could end up being like other time share contracts that you basically have to give away.