DVC’s planned attack on resale owners will kill the remaining availability of studios at 7 months, except in DVC’s sole remaining off-season: June-Aug.
This is especially true if DVC doesn’t address Fall Frenzy.
As RIV becomes more and more owned by resale with restrictions, they will book out Fall Frenzy in the 11 month window, forcing direct buyers to do the same, or be left out.
Because the resale buyers know they can’t book elsewhere, they’ll walk a reservation for months if need be to secure a Fall Reservation.
That in turn will send hundreds of direct buyers into other resorts at 7 months, all without reciprocity because there are no RIV studios avail at 7 months.
Maybe RIV alone won’t do that, but in 10 years, they’ll be no functional 7 month window for studios except during the summer.
If demand were equal year round, the problem would be consistent. It’s not, and so, the problem will aggregate towards where the current stresses to the system can be found, and it will overwhelm them.
Restrictions plus Fall Frenzy plus walking is going to kill the 7 month window altogether. Not walking at 7 months, mind you, but walking as a tool at 11 months that will be used by those more committed to the effort to secure a reservation or else. At first that’ll be resale buyers, but eventually all owners at resorts with the new restrictions will learn to walk, or else. Those direct buyers who lose the walking race to more committed resale buyers will flood the 7 month window seeking reservations elsewhere.