Six Flags Magic Mountain rides reopening Spring 2021

[RunningPrince]

Posted to Twitter a few minutes ago...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1362896770649501697

 

[dina444444]

I think this is wishful thinking on their part. LA county would currently have to get to the yellow tier for them to begin to reopen. Which means averaging around 100 cases a day for the entire county.

 

[DLgal]

Spring goes through most of June, so technically it's not out of the realm of possibility.

 

[DLgal]

I think this is wishful thinking on their part. LA county would currently have to get to the yellow tier for them to begin to reopen. Which means averaging around 100 cases a day for the entire county.

I really don't see how they will stick with the yellow tier for anything. 1 case per 100k people is an unattainable number. Think about that for the STATE as a whole. That would mean less than 359 daily new cases. NEVER going to happen, at least not until this pandemic is firmly on our rearview mirror. But considering that our best vaccine is still only 95% effective, there will always be cases out there until the entire world has been vaccinated.

They are going to have to revamp the tier system, recategorize theme parks to Orange tier, or just eliminate the tiers altogether in favor of overarching safety guidelines for everything.

 

[RunningPrince]

1 case per 100k people is an unattainable number. Think about that for the STATE as a whole. That would mean less than 359 daily new cases. NEVER going to happen, at least not until this pandemic is firmly on our rearview mirror...

I think this is the key takeaway. As of June 1, 2020 California has 39.78M people. Based on Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccine efficacy (~90-95% for original strain and somewhat less effective for UK and South Africa variants, two CA variants still TBD), a minimum of 1,989,000 - 3,978,000 people could still get/transmit COVID assuming 100% of the population is vaccinated.

COVID testing rates have varied from our peak of 473,076 tests/day in January to 192,222 tests/day yesterday - while less testing can mean less cases are identified, those with vaccine can still test positive, perhaps transmit (Mayo study and several others waiting for peer review show this may be less of a factor) and less people may get tested as the vaccine lessens symptoms if you do happen to get COVID.

Also, the other vaccines (Janssen, AstraZeneca, Novavax, Sputnik V, EpiCoronaVax, CoronaVac, and six others in the pipeline worldwide) have varying levels of efficacy so far. FDA requires minimum of 50% efficacy to approve - just like flu vaccines.

So bottom line, 1 case per 100k is NOT possible or attainable. They will need to rethink tiering and where theme parks fall within that tiering. There are examples across other states and the world where theme parks are operating today that have data that can be shared and safety protocols are well established. This same reality of vaccines will also need to be taken into account for the cruise industry as it eventually reopens.

Finally, while I think vaccination will help get the current situation under better control, I also think it may be part of the new normal to get an annual flu/COVID booster shot...so everyone will need to adjust to that new paradigm.

 

[midnight star]

They will be opening April 1 with rides

 

[amyg1975]

I am surprised that Six Flags Discovery Kingdom is ready to open on April 1st. I thought for sure they would take longer because they tend to hire new workers each year.