Some perspective on the risk of dying from coronavirus versus normal annual risk

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

That's why I don't get why people seem to think there are only two possible responses to the coronavirus: make everyone stay at home until the end of time, or open everything. take no precautions, and whoever dies, dies. There's a very, very large middle ground. In my state, there are criteria set for each phase of re-opening, and when a county meets the criteria, they begin the next phase. Simple. Reasonable. Understandable.

Nobody is truly saying lets lock down until the end of time. And there are in fact people saying not only open everything now, but that we never should have closed anything.

 

[Lynne M]

Nobody is truly saying lets lock down until the end of time. And there are in fact people saying not only open everything now, but that we never should have closed anything.

Yep, that's what I was trying to say. The people who want to open everything claim that the only alternative is to keep everything closed for years. It's a strawman argument. What most people want is a smart middle ground.

 

[Aladora]

That's why I don't get why people seem to think there are only two possible responses to the coronavirus: make everyone stay at home until the end of time, or open everything. take no precautions, and whoever dies, dies. There's a very, very large middle ground. In my state, there are criteria set for each phase of re-opening, and when a county meets the criteria, they begin the next phase. Simple. Reasonable. Understandable.

Our Premier just announced British Columbia's plan for re-opening the Province, although we never actually closed we all just stayed the heck at home because they asked us to! It is in 4 phases detailed below.

Where we are today

Essential Services Operating During COVID-19

• Essential health and health services
• Law enforcement, public safety, first responders and emergency response personnel
• Vulnerable population service providers
• Critical infrastructure
• Food and agriculture service providers
• Transportation
• Industry and manufacturing
• Sanitation
• Communications and information technology
• Financial institutions
• Other non-health essential service providers

Industries that were designated as essential services developed safe operation plans in consultation with WorkSafeBC and in compliance with the public health orders issued by the Provincial Health Officer.
As a result, B.C.’s economy has continued to operate in ways other provinces haven’t. But it’s undeniable that local businesses have suffered.
Many businesses closed for other reasons, including reduced demand, such as in the retail, hospitality and export industries. Others closed to do their part in helping to flatten the curve, protecting their customers and employees.
To help these businesses and other organizations get back on their feet, we need workplace practices that ensure British Columbians feel safe, whether they are returning to work or going out as a customer. That means employers will need to engage with their employees to find the right solutions and consider the concerns and needs of their customers.


Phase 2
Mid-May onwards
Under enhanced protocols:

• Restoration of health services
  • Re-scheduling elective surgery
• Medically related services:
  • Dentistry, physiotherapy, registered massage therapy, and chiropractors
  • Physical therapy, speech therapy, and similar services
• Retail sector
• Hair salons, barbers, and other personal service establishments
• In-person counselling
• Restaurants, cafes, and pubs (with sufficient distancing measures
• Museums, art galleries, and libraries
• Office-based worksites
• Parks, beaches, and outdoor spaces
• Recreation and sports
• Child care

Phase 3
June to September
If transmission rates remain low or in decline, under enhanced protocols:

• Hotels and Resorts (June 2020)
• Parks – broader reopening, including some overnight camping (June 2020)
• Film industry – beginning with domestic productions (June/July 2020)
• Select entertainment – movies and symphony, but not large concerts (July 2020)
• Post-secondary education – with mix of online and in-class (September 2020)
• K-12 education – with only a partial return this school year (September 2020)

Phase 4
To be determined
Conditional on at least one of the following; wide vaccination, “community” immunity, broad successful treatments:

• Activities requiring large gatherings, such as:
  • Live audience professional sports
  • Conventions
  • Concerts
• International tourism

The timing of a safe restart of night clubs, casinos and bars is a more complicated consideration. As with other sectors, industry associations will be expected to develop safe operations plans, for review, that are in keeping with Public Health and Safety Guidelines, as well as WorkSafeBC.
Resources to assist businesses and sectors as they restart their activities including new Health Guidelines and Checklists are available from WorkSafeBC.

 

[tvguy]

I am smart enough to know, that I am not smart enough to know how this is going to conclude.

 

[disneychrista]

More people are dying every day from COVID than cancer and heart disease combined.

 

[ponyboy]

And yet the reality is, until/unless there is an effective vaccine, you, I and everybody else will at some point probably catch it. Unfortunately some will die but most won't and many won't even know they have it. Right now we're only identifying the sickest of the sick which turns out to be only a small minority of the cases. This thing is so widespread that the true numbers are most likely magnitudes greater than the confirmed numbers that are being released.

There's simply no getting away from it at this point and there's no way for anyone to even estimate the true mortality rate because they can't even closely estimate the number of people who have been infected. So all of the charts and numbers are basically a bunch of gibberish. Someones guess based upon figures from a guess by someone else.

That's why I'm not real worried about catching it because it's going to happen sooner or later. People staying home isn't stopping the spread and it wasn't designed to, it's only to slow the spread. As we go into summer the cases will probably drop but next fall and winter it's going to be right back and it will continue that way until enough people are immune through either vaccines or natural immunity to keep the large flare ups to a minimum. But this thing is NEVER going away. Take a look at the list of the diseases we've eradicated, it's infinitesimally small, so the odds of adding COVID-19 to it are exceedingly slim.

 

[mefordis]

That chart is an excellent example of how you can use statistics to prove any point you'd like.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

More people are dying every day from COVID than cancer and heart disease combined.

Stop interrupting perspective with facts. By the way it's either or. combined they're still out running covid.

 

[LSUmiss]

More people are dying every day from COVID than cancer and heart disease combined.

Not sure about that. Cancer kills about 600,000 ppl per year alone. Even if we continue on the same path for a while yr like this with Covid, it would still be about 1/2 that.

 

[hellow]

Not sure about that. Cancer kills about 600,000 ppl per year alone. Even if we continue on the same path for a while yr like this with Covid, it would still be about 1/2 that.

Totally agree. And, it has become pretty evident that the virus was probably circulating in the US in January of this year. 77,000 deaths in the US (and that is a bloated number because if you test positive, they count it as a Covid death even if you really died from something else) in the first 4 months of the year. If we annualize it, that would be 308,000 deaths in a year. CDC lists heart disease and cancer at ~600,000 for each, or 1.2 million deaths per year.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

(and that is a bloated number because if you test positive, they count it as a Covid death even if you really died from something else)

If anything, we are undercounting.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...kely-undercounted-not-overcounted/2973481001/

 

[Planogirl]

There's so much spin here that I'm a little dizzy. I'll personally listen to the experts.

I'll only add that whatever the true death count may be that most of these occurred in a restricted environment which should have slowed the number of deaths. There are too many variables to make such broad assumptions.

 

[SirDuff]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52543692
A Cambridge University statistician has created an interesting chart showing the risk of dying from coronavirus compared to the normal annual risk of dying for ages 0 - 100.

View attachment 493316


So if you get and survive a case of Coronavirus, you have about the same chance you will die from another cause sometime in the next 12 months.

So, you've doubled your risk of death. I don't think your "proving" what you think you are.

 

[kdonnel]

So, you've doubled your risk of death. I don't think your "proving" what you think you are.

I am not trying to “prove” anything. The article is about perspective.

Perspective wise for my age going from .1% to .2% not so scary, at least to me.

It gives me perspective and helps me understand my risk as I decide whether to venture out as the home lock down ends in my state.

I have willingly done things some years that significantly increased my chances of dying. I have flown in private single engine planes. I have taken long cross country road trips. I have walked on an active volcano. I have gone sky diving. I have gone scuba diving. I will continue to do things that might kill me because I like living.

 

[PRINCESS Sweet Pea]

I am sitting here looking at those percents thinking isn’t that doubling your chance of death. I guess you can look at it your way and I’ll look at it my way!

 

[Boardwalk Jedi]

Totally agree. And, it has become pretty evident that the virus was probably circulating in the US in January of this year. 77,000 deaths in the US (and that is a bloated number because if you test positive, they count it as a Covid death even if you really died from something else) in the first 4 months of the year. If we annualize it, that would be 308,000 deaths in a year. CDC lists heart disease and cancer at ~600,000 for each, or 1.2 million deaths per year.

The numbers are not bloated. Do you not get that the virus exacerbated any conditions a patient may have? Shame on you for thinking the way you do.

 

[Boardwalk Jedi]

I am not trying to “prove” anything. The article is about perspective.

Perspective wise for my age going from .1% to .2% not so scary, at least to me.

It gives me perspective and helps me understand my risk as I decide whether to venture out as the home lock down ends in my state.

I have willingly done things some years that significantly increased my chances of dying. I have flown in private single engine planes. I have taken long cross country road trips. I have walked on an active volcano. I have gone sky diving. I have gone scuba diving. I will continue to do things that might kill me because I like living.

Other people like living too, including the elderly and immunocompromised. Stop being selfish.

 

[Heather07438]

Not sure about that. Cancer kills about 600,000 ppl per year alone. Even if we continue on the same path for a while yr like this with Covid, it would still be about 1/2 that.

The chart was logarithmic.

According to its numbers, the chance of death by Covid is similar to every other possible cause of death across a year combined, including those 600,000.

The chances of death for both Covid or all other starts under .01% for very young, and works its way up to around 1% for 50-60yo, and nearing 10% for 78-90yo (according to that chart).

 

[Kimberlyann11]

My mom is almost 80, her gentleman friend is a little over. I know they're both going to die of something - probably within the next 20 years or so, I would just prefer it not be all alone gasping for air.

 

[disneychrista]

Not sure about that. Cancer kills about 600,000 ppl per year alone. Even if we continue on the same path for a while yr like this with Covid, it would still be about 1/2 that.

Just repeating what a local doctor said the other day on the radio.