Speculation on resale prices in an early post-pandemic world

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

That’s not new-been that way for years and contracts have passed.

Right, I don’t think Disney finds it worth it unless they are making $80 or $90 a point under normal circumstances. I think they are more willing to make smaller margins and will go as low as $60-$70 a point as has been seen in some OKW and SSR buybacks.

 

[Royal Consort]

Right, I don’t think Disney finds it worth it unless they are making $80 or $90 a point under normal circumstances. I think they are more willing to make smaller margins and will go as low as $60-$70 a point as has been seen in some OKW and SSR buybacks.

If thats the case, that would make me feel more comfortable with the stupid crazy price I paid

 

[iflyjetzzz]

That’s not new-been that way for years and contracts have passed.

That may be so, but have you ever seen DVC ROFR any sales before in order to fill their waitlists, like they're currently doing?

And as MonkeyKnifeFight pointed out, there has to be a minimum margin for it to worth DVC's effort.

 

[limace]

Well sure-but who knows why they ROFR, now or later?

 

[poofyo101]

That may be so, but have you ever seen DVC ROFR any sales before in order to fill their waitlists, like they're currently doing?

And as MonkeyKnifeFight pointed out, there has to be a minimum margin for it to worth DVC's effort.

There is no proof they are rofring now to fulfill the waitlist.

 

[sethschroeder]

There is no proof they are rofring now to fulfill the waitlist.

There is proof though that direct sales is struggling mightily. There is also proof that SSR did go on wait list just this past week right before they did the ROFR to end the week.

So in the end it doesn't matter if its specific to the waitlist (or like I have said before to possibly get a bank of points to sell prior to the September point increase) in the end they are not selling that much so Disney is very unlikely to ROFR continuously as it doesn't make sense when DVC sales might not get back to normal for another 12-24 months.

 

[jennypenny]

An argument could be made that they will increase ROFRing if Reflections is really dead because they will need something to sell for a few years.

 

[CastAStone]

There is no proof they are rofring now to fulfill the waitlist.

It's not a provable thing. But the fact is that out of nowhere guides started telling people there was a waitlist for certain resorts that never have waitlists, and then within a couple days those resorts got ROFR'd. As I pointed out in another thread, Disney's typical stream of contract acquisition via foreclosure and auction has currently dried up for reasons that aren't clear. There are no Disney DVC contracts up for foreclosure auction in the next month, that is unusual. So in the interim this is the only way to acquire points.

 

[sethschroeder]

An argument could be made that they will increase ROFRing if Reflections is really dead because they will need something to sell for a few years.

Eh that is 5 years out before that's really the case. They are only like 25% through Riviera, its much slower now than the 3-ish year pace to sell out it was on.

Now could they have shifted their model to slow the Riviera to a 7+ year sell out? Pushing more of the historical resorts? Maybe but I need to see more aggressive pricing on sold out resorts before I believe that.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Eh that is 5 years out before that's really the case. They are only like 25% through Riviera, its much slower now than the 3-ish year pace to sell out it was on.

Now could they have shifted their model to slow the Riviera to a 7+ year sell out? Pushing more of the historical resorts? Maybe but I need to see more aggressive pricing on sold out resorts before I believe that.

Great point. Now that they are actually showing each resort with on site villa(s), that sounds logical. In the "old days", that is how you toured a resort. You know how you feel when you walk in to a DVC lobby and all your senses light up like a Christmas tree? Sights, smells, sounds...it is easy to be overwhelmed by the Disney "magic"?

The SSR sales center can give you the feel for the interior of a resort, but not for the overall "vibe" of a resort, like the view of MK from monorail resorts or the magnificent lobbies at CCV and AKL for example. Each resort has awesomeness baked in and it's up to the guide to tailor their "tour" to the interests of the guests touring their particular resort. It's an end run for DVC IMO, especially if buyers don't understand they can buy resale.

 

[Chol]

I've just applied for my first contract. Seller accepted and now just waiting contract signing woohooo

 

[RoseGold]

There are no Disney DVC contracts up for foreclosure auction in the next month, that is unusual. So in the interim this is the only way to acquire points.

I know where I live, the status of foreclosures right now is very confusing. I can see that being possible. I guess the other possibility is that Disney is delaying foreclosing? Maybe they don't even want the points they foreclose right now? Maybe they are being kind?

 

[CastAStone]

I know where I live, the status of foreclosures right now is very confusing. I can see that being possible. I guess the other possibility is that Disney is delaying foreclosing? Maybe they don't even want the points they foreclose right now? Maybe they are being kind?

Disney doesn't initiate many of the foreclosures. The bank that makes the loan (Monera, Palm etc) forecloses for nonpayment on the loan; Disney only forecloses for non-payment of dues. Neither one seems to be happening which makes me think it's more related to COVID impacts on the court system.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

I'm looking at resale as an international visitor. Do I buy now while there are deals to be had but no idea about when I can travel, or wait for early post-pandemic world e.g. successful vaccine developed, and buy then. Do u think there would there still be some good deals around?

Canada here and I'm wondering the same thing. Current travel restrictions complicate things but I'm trying to look past 2021 when making my decision. Right now prices haven't dropped on the resorts I'm watching where I feel the need to jump in but it is getting tempting on a few resorts. GFV wasn't high on our list initially but as it drops it's hard to ignore.

I believe that it's likely prices drop further so I'm looking at purchasing Oct/Nov at the earliest. I'll potentially push that out further depending on how things look this fall. I'm also considering buying a stripped contract to help alleviate concerns around travel restrictions.

 

[gisele2]

I'm also considering buying a stripped contract to help alleviate concerns around travel restrictions.

This is what I did . So the sooner I plan to go is summer 2022 or 2023 .

 

[Royal Consort]

I've just applied for my first contract. Seller accepted and now just waiting contract signing woohooo

What did you decide to make an offer on, and what convinced you?

 

[prouddaddycdn]

Fellow Canadian here.

Keep in mind that when buying resale it looks to be taking 4+ months to go through the entire process and end up with actual points in your account. If you are looking to travel next summer for instance, this will mean that you will be well outside the 11 month window and likely well into the 7 month window when you finally get your points so booking options may be limited the longer you wait.

Personally, I put in an offer for BWV last month with the intention of using the points / contract for late 2021 or Spring 2022. I knew that waiting would likely mess with those plans.

 

[sethschroeder]

this will mean that you will be well outside the 11 month window and likely well into the 7 month window when you finally get your points so booking options may be limited the longer you wait.

I mean its summer which is a slower time and still during COVID. As a Canadian you might not even be able to travel to the US next summer. There is a 0% chance you won't be able to get a room for next summer if you are buying resale in the next couple months even with a 4 month wait.

I mean as an example in January in a Studio (hardest to get) you could get a week at SSR and AKV plus you could also get a good portion of a week to put together a split stay at BWV, OKW, POLY, BLT, BRV. You could even likely switch between views to stay at the same resort as well.

I am just saying you hardly need to get a room at 11 months or even 7 months. Paying an extra $5k/$10k/$15k for direct points for a better chance at getting your preferred room/resort seems strange when you consider this is a 20-40 year contract. Especially for non-Americans who can not be positive they will be able to travel here in the next year.

Oh and to clarify the availability I just randomly looked at its not even what I could likely get with a waitlist or if I was following it more closely.

 

[prouddaddycdn]

I won't speculate on what the world will be like next summer as COVID-19 could still be a huge factor or a non-factor if a vaccine is developed and rolled out.

My point was that the resale process is rather lengthy and putting off the purchase of a resale contract until October or November of this year MAY impact the OPs ability to book something within 2021, if things improve COVID-19 wise etc. For instance, buying a contract in November may mean that the OP doesn't actually get points into their account until March 2021. If they are buying so they can travel in late 2021 or in 2022, that's fine but if they hope to travel next summer, that timeframe MAY pose an issue.

 

[sethschroeder]

MAY impact the OPs ability to book something within 2021

Nope I have zero doubts they can get a room. If you want something very specific there might be issues though.

Again lets say you buy in November have it take 5 months and you are now in April. When you are 3-4 months (July/August) out there is going to be something available in the summer but it may only be AKV/SSR.

Summer is typically the easiest time to get rooms for DVC. Where you might run in to more issues is that park attached resorts may be fun and waitlists may not come through.

Again take that difference between Resale and Direct and that is how much you are paying for an upgrade from SSR/AKV to your home resort (no guarantees at 7 months either that all resorts are open just a better chance). When deciding on direct or resale look at the long term impact and values of direct and if its worth it for you.