The Intersection of FIRE and Disney

[DCLMP]

But most of the housing dept is at an extremely low fixed rate this time so you get to keep making the same dollar payment on your house with dollars that are worth less - that sounds like a net positive to me. As long as you stay employed that is.

I would not make any comparisopns to the Russian economy it is a mess and has always been a mess. There are no replacements to the USD on the near or midterm horizon. After the invasion, no one will trust China or Russian fiat currency. Maybe a cypto takes over at some point in the distant future but that's about it.

I'm going to disagree with everything you just said except for the dollar being worthless that part is true. Fiat currencies don't work that is the problem. It's hard for me to wrap my brain around the fact that you don't see the current situation as a problem and if you do you haven't offered any solutions.

 

[RivShore]

I'm going to disagree with everything you just said except for the dollar being worthless that part is true. Fiat currencies don't work that is the problem. It's hard for me to wrap my brain around the fact that you don't see the current situation as a problem and if you do you haven't offered any solutions.

Maybe because I'm a creature of habit, I saw the dot com bust coming and I held fast and in 5 years I was well ahead of where I was prior to the bust, the housing crisis same thing, held onto everything, rode a bank stock all the way to the bottom and today it's at all time highs. Sticking to the long term plan has worked for me, rather than trying to time the downturns and seeing never ending doom and gloom around ever corner.

One change I recently made was a move to real estate, other than the primary home, I have never invested directly in real estate but I moved some cash that was sitting earning nothing into an investment property about a year ago, how can you pass up using other peoples money for less than a 3% rate to earn much more. Now with inflation, my rental rates should climb while my biggest fixed expense, the mortgage, remains the same. Now if you think the world is going to end soon, then none of this matters anyway...

 

[DCLMP]

Maybe because I'm a creature of habit, I saw the dot com bust coming and I held fast and in 5 years I was well ahead of where I was prior to the bust, the housing crisis same thing, held onto everything, rode a bank stock all the way to the bottom and today it's at all time highs. Sticking to the long term plan has worked for me, rather than trying to time the downturns and seeing never ending doom and gloom around ever corner.

One change I recently made was a move to real estate, other than the primary home, I have never invested directly in real estate but I moved some cash that was sitting earning nothing into an investment property about a year ago, how can you pass up using other peoples money for less than a 3% rate to earn much more. Now with inflation, my rental rates should climb while my biggest fixed expense, the mortgage, remains the same. Now if you think the world is going to end soon, then none of this matters anyway...

I don’t know where you get the idea that I think the world is going to end. War has never ended the world. The world has nothing but war for thousands of years.

If you think this debt based economy is going to keep on keeping on than you should sleep easy at night.

Whatever happens I’ll be fine, but I prefer not to live in a third world country with no middle class. Im not as worried about my household as I am about the populate. I may even get wealthier off all this, I certainly won’t lose anything and my house is paid off, but that’s no consolation if people around me are suffering. My kids are just entering adulthood I would like to see them have the same opportunities I had.

Inflation numbers came in hot today. I see no end in sight. The fed would have to raise interest rates above the rate of inflation if they did that the market would fall into a black hole. I don’t see an off ramp unless we change course, but it doesn’t seem like that’s going to happen.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Sorry naive was a bad choice of words and I apologize. I should not have said that. I get frustrated and angry about the way things are going right now. People do get called conspiracy theorists when they don't go along with the consensus. It is a way to try to discredit them, but many times as we've seen lately they end up being right.

Yes there's been a lot of ups and downs and eventually, we recover in some form, but that doesn't make the loss any less difficult. I feel like this time is going to be really rough. Everything you say not to do is something I think should be a part of everyone's portfolio, not the whole portfolio, but part of it. You got to do whatever helps you sleep at night.

The thing that scares me most about major depression is civil unrest and our safety. People are kind of nuts right now and we are such a divided country. I live in a pretty nice middle to upper-middle-class community, but crime is getting ridiculous. We've got homeless people sleeping under bridges on our golf course. I can only see this getting worse as the economy declines. I'm sure there are already a lot of lower-income families having trouble making ends meet and it's only going to get worse. Most people I know are cutting back on discretionary spending.

Housing prices in our area are disproportional to incomes again. In 2009 our city looked like some kind of apocalyptic, dystopian movie with all the foreclosures. It seems like everyone I know used their house as an atm machine over the last couple of years. I can't see that ending well for them, but people don't learn.

I understand your frustration. I am betting most Americans are very frustrated these days, sometimes even for the same reasons which is rare these days. I also understand that many people hold some precious metals and/or bitcoin in their portfolios. We've never held metals in our portfolio, and bitcoin is too volatile for me.

We don't have a lot of crime in my area, and no homeless issues on our town's streets, but it's certainly a growing issue across America right now...no argument there. We moved to this town in 2007, bought a house and then the Great Recession kicked in. It took over a decade for our house to return to the value we paid for it, and in just the last two years it's up about 30%. We are fortunate in that we have no mortgage and kept our jobs/business through the Great Recession, and so it wasn't an issue. Our town did take quite a hit with many businesses shutting down and lots of empty storefronts for a good 3-4 years. But....the entrepreneurial spirit prevailed and the businesses are again thriving here. There's always a churn with retail small businesses, but vacant stores don't remain that way for long.

We'll see what happens over the next several years. I don't expect things in general to be great, there's just too much uncertainty at the moment with world events. But I also don't have as dark as view as you hold right now.

 

[DCLMP]

I understand your frustration. I am betting most Americans are very frustrated these days, sometimes even for the same reasons which is rare these days. I also understand that many people hold some precious metals and/or bitcoin in their portfolios. We've never held metals in our portfolio, and bitcoin is too volatile for me.

We don't have a lot of crime in my area, and no homeless issues on our town's streets, but it's certainly a growing issue across America right now...no argument there. We moved to this town in 2007, bought a house and then the Great Recession kicked in. It took over a decade for our house to return to the value we paid for it, and in just the last two years it's up about 30%. We are fortunate in that we have no mortgage and kept our jobs/business through the Great Recession, and so it wasn't an issue. Our town did take quite a hit with many businesses shutting down and lots of empty storefronts for a good 3-4 years. But....the entrepreneurial spirit prevailed and the businesses are again thriving here. There's always a churn with retail small businesses, but vacant stores don't remain that way for long.

We'll see what happens over the next several years. I don't expect things in general to be great, there's just too much uncertainty at the moment with world events. But I also don't have as dark as view as you hold right now.

In the 1980’s they took sledge hammer to inflation. They raised the Fed rate from 9% to 19%. It decimated the markets and brought about a deep recession, but the inflation rate was below 2% within four years. Currently short t term interests are well below the current rate of inflation and real inflation is well above the 8%.

Your entitled to think I have a dark view. I think have realistic view. The world isn’t all mickey bars and pixie dust. I believe in the etreprenerial spirit and I believe things will bounce back even if we go to war again over the petrodollar.

If they are going to reset everything there’s going to be some real short term pain. Most people didnt see 2008 coming and still don’t understand what happened. I don’t think most people understand what’s causing inflation they think it’s Ukraine, Covid or some other bs the media tells them God forbid you call out the Fed and their monetary policy.

On the cruise forum people think there’s going to be a huge demand for the already overpriced Disney cruises in 2023. I’m not sure what world they are living in maybe they are super rich, still spending their stimulus checks, or they don’t buy food and gas. I’m taking three cruise between now and September. I figure do it now before my disposable income really takes a hit. Cruises are about the only thing that’s cheap right now. One of my cruises is a even Baltic cruise so see I’m not that doom and gloom…..in the short term anyway.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

The problem with recessions is they are never from an angle you can foresee (although everyone will CLAIM they saw it coming in hindsight). Anyone that claims to have timed 2000/2008 right probably went to cash in 2014 as the market was already overvalued by some indicators. There is a reason dead people make the best investors: they don't try to overthink it and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

We keep enough out of the market that we won't starve in a black swan scenario. Everything else gets shoveled in as soon as it's available. We have no problem sleeping and night and honestly don't spend much time thinking about it. If the market does well, we will be FI before age 45. If it does poorly, it will be a few years later. We are way ahead either way and this low information approach has gotten us well ahead of peers who spend a lot of time "studying" the market.

On a more FIRE subject: We ran our quarterly numbers tonight. NW was basically flat over the first quarter (down 4k). Better than I expected if I'm being honest and hoping the next couple quarters push us into the 2 comma club.

 

[DCLMP]

The problem with recessions is they are never from an angle you can foresee (although everyone will CLAIM they saw it coming in hindsight). Anyone that claims to have timed 2000/2008 right probably went to cash in 2014 as the market was already overvalued by some indicators. There is a reason dead people make the best investors: they don't try to overthink it and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

We keep enough out of the market that we won't starve in a black swan scenario. Everything else gets shoveled in as soon as it's available. We have no problem sleeping and night and honestly don't spend much time thinking about it. If the market does well, we will be FI before age 45. If it does poorly, it will be a few years later. We are way ahead either way and this low information approach has gotten us well ahead of peers who spend a lot of time "studying" the market.

On a more FIRE subject: We ran our quarterly numbers tonight. NW was basically flat over the first quarter (down 4k). Better than I expected if I'm being honest and hoping the next couple quarters push us into the 2 comma club.

2008 was very foreseeable if you took the time. That doesn't mean there was much you could do about it except sit back and watch it unfold. The same holds true for today, but it is good to be informed. I don't think the low information approach will serve you well in the long run.

 

[dvcgirl67]

2008 was very foreseeable if you took the time. That doesn't mean there was much you could do about it except sit back and watch it unfold. The same holds true for today, but it is good to be informed. I don't think the low information approach will serve you well in the long run.

The "low information approach".....has served almost every single investor who has simply put money in the S&P 500....and did not sell. It beats "high information" active fund managers almost every single year. In the 32 years I've been investing I've heard the "this time is different" mantra about a dozen times. The present/coming economic slump will be a different flavor, but in the end....the markets will recover. The longest slump in my investing years was the Great Recession....took the markets four years to recover. And I kept on investing right through it. The news feed was pretty apocalyptic during the lead-up to that crash...2007-08. Of course, we think about our timing and what if we had just retired at the beginning of that crisis? We probably would have worked longer, or part time...to draw down less on our nest egg. What if we were deep into retirement, we'd likely cut back on discretionary spending to draw down less. Trying to time this market (or any market) is going to be very, very difficult.

 

[punkin]

The "low information approach".....has served almost every single investor who has simply put money in the S&P 500....and did not sell. It beats "high information" active fund managers almost every single year. In the 32 years I've been investing I've heard the "this time is different" mantra about a dozen times. The present/coming economic slump will be a different flavor, but in the end....the markets will recover. The longest slump in my investing years was the Great Recession....took the markets four years to recover. And I kept on investing right through it. The news feed was pretty apocalyptic during the lead-up to that crash...2007-08. Of course, we think about our timing and what if we had just retired at the beginning of that crisis? We probably would have worked longer, or part time...to draw down less on our nest egg. What if we were deep into retirement, we'd likely cut back on discretionary spending to draw down less. Trying to time this market (or any market) is going to be very, very difficult.

There was only one time I was able to time the market and it was by accident. I had sold everything in my keogh account to transfer it into an ira and had some issues for a couple weeks during which the market crashed while I was sitting on a bunch of cash. I was able to buy at the low when I finally completed the transfer. Lol. I think that was the Russian currency crisis in '98... or some other market crash...

 

[DCLMP]

The "low information approach".....has served almost every single investor who has simply put money in the S&P 500....and did not sell. It beats "high information" active fund managers almost every single year. In the 32 years I've been investing I've heard the "this time is different" mantra about a dozen times. The present/coming economic slump will be a different flavor, but in the end....the markets will recover. The longest slump in my investing years was the Great Recession....took the markets four years to recover. And I kept on investing right through it. The news feed was pretty apocalyptic during the lead-up to that crash...2007-08. Of course, we think about our timing and what if we had just retired at the beginning of that crisis? We probably would have worked longer, or part time...to draw down less on our nest egg. What if we were deep into retirement, we'd likely cut back on discretionary spending to draw down less. Trying to time this market (or any market) is going to be very, very difficult.

Is their actual data prove your theory? That seems like a very bold statement. It's fine if you don't want to learn the market, but to make excuses for it or say that people that do it for a living aren't capable of timing it or aren't successful is another. There are plenty of people out there making a living at it. Even if you do nothing, but stick your money in a 401k your whole life someone is managing your money.

Yes, timing is everything a lot of retired people got wiped out in 2008 if you are young and working and aren't paying attention to your 401k life is much easier.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

2008 was very foreseeable if you took the time. That doesn't mean there was much you could do about it except sit back and watch it unfold. The same holds true for today, but it is good to be informed. I don't think the low information approach will serve you well in the long run.

Why?

For me, it comes down to circle of influence vs circle of concern. Information that is useless is not something I'm looking to spend my time on.

Is their actual data prove your theory? That seems like a very bold statement. It's fine if you don't want to learn the market, but to make excuses for it or say that people that do it for a living aren't capable of timing it or aren't successful is another. There are plenty of people out there making a living at it. Even if you do nothing, but stick your money in a 401k your whole life someone is managing your money.

Yes, timing is everything a lot of retired people got wiped out in 2008 if you are young and working and aren't paying attention to your 401k life is much easier.

Those people "making a living at it" are generally charging fees to invest others money. If they were so successful at trading they wouldn't need other people's money or to charge exorbitant fees.

Most here invest in index funds so no one is physically managing those investments. It's a straight forward algorithm.

 

[DCLMP]

Why?

For me, it comes down to circle of influence vs circle of concern. Information that is useless is not something I'm looking to spend my time on.

Those people "making a living at it" are generally charging fees to invest others money. If they were so successful at trading they wouldn't need other people's money or to charge exorbitant fees.

Most here invest in index funds so no one is physically managing those investments. It's a straight forward algorithm.

There are plenty of people making living trading their own money. It's such a ridiculous argument. Even if you're not trading you should be semi-informed about what's coming down the road. What happens with the markets and economy affects everyone whether you are investing or not.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Is their actual data prove your theory? That seems like a very bold statement. It's fine if you don't want to learn the market, but to make excuses for it or say that people that do it for a living aren't capable of timing it or aren't successful is another. There are plenty of people out there making a living at it. Even if you do nothing, but stick your money in a 401k your whole life someone is managing your money.

Yes, timing is everything a lot of retired people got wiped out in 2008 if you are young and working and aren't paying attention to your 401k life is much easier.

Theory? It's a known entity that passive funds beat most active funds year after year. Have you ever heard of SPIVA? They release a report each year comparing passive funds to their passive funds vs. their active respective benchmarks.

https://www.ifa.com/articles/despit...active_funds_fail_dent_indexing_lead_-_works/

Most of the categories are mind-boggling....in all Domestic Funds, over the last 20 years, active traders underperformed their benchmark 95.39% of the time. It goes on and on like that through all of the different types of funds. Not always 95%, but most active managers underperform their benchmark index year after year. Warren Buffett, who I think we'd all agree is one of the greatest investors of all time, has said this many, many times. Here's a quote from him from 2014: "Huge institutional investors, viewed as a group, have long underperformed the unsophisticated index-fund investor who simply sits tight for decades. A major reason has been fees: Many institutions pay substantial sums to consultants who, in turn, recommend high-fee managers. And that is a fool's game." (2014). And when he set up the Trust for his wife should he predecease her....he instructed it to be set up like this. "90% in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund and the other 10% in Short Term Government Bonds.

There are millions of investors out there who don't understand how the markets work...paying unnecessary fees that will put a major dent in their nest egg years down the road. When all they needed to do was determine their personal risk tolerance and build a very simple portfolio with very low cost index funds with a company like Vanguard. It's really not that complicated.

 

[DCLMP]

Theory? It's a known entity that passive funds beat most active funds year after year. Have you ever heard of SPIVA? They release a report each year comparing passive funds to their passive funds vs. their active respective benchmarks.

https://www.ifa.com/articles/despit...active_funds_fail_dent_indexing_lead_-_works/

Most of the categories are mind-boggling....in all Domestic Funds, over the last 20 years, active traders underperformed their benchmark 95.39% of the time. It goes on and on like that through all of the different types of funds. Not always 95%, but most active managers underperform their benchmark index year after year. Warren Buffett, who I think we'd all agree is one of the greatest investors of all time, has said this many, many times. Here's a quote from him from 2014: "Huge institutional investors, viewed as a group, have long underperformed the unsophisticated index-fund investor who simply sits tight for decades. A major reason has been fees: Many institutions pay substantial sums to consultants who, in turn, recommend high-fee managers. And that is a fool's game." (2014). And when he set up the Trust for his wife should he predecease her....he instructed it to be set up like this. "90% in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund and the other 10% in Short Term Government Bonds.

There are millions of investors out there who don't understand how the markets work...paying unnecessary fees that will put a major dent in their nest egg years down the road. When all they needed to do was determine their personal risk tolerance and build a very simple portfolio with very low cost index funds with a company like Vanguard. It's really not that complicated.

I came here to see what concerns people had about the current situation and the economy not to get into a silly debate about trading or who's is better than who. It's an unproductive discussion. Obviously, you guys aren't seeing the same thing I'm seeing when it comes to the economy. I'll just leave it at that. Have a good day.

 

[dvcgirl67]

On a more FIRE subject: We ran our quarterly numbers tonight. NW was basically flat over the first quarter (down 4k). Better than I expected if I'm being honest and hoping the next couple quarters push us into the 2 comma club.

You did better than us....we were down 3.9%, but better than the Dow was down 4.6%, S&P 4.9%. The only changes we'll make this year is start piling up more cash and invest a bit less in the markets through this year....possibly next. We've done this in previous turbulent periods. Even in this inflationary period it's nice to keep some powder dry to move money in down the road when prices might be a bit more attractive. Hang tough, you'll get that second comma soon!

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

There are plenty of people making living trading their own money. It's such a ridiculous argument.

I'm sure there are people making money trading but the questions would be:
1. How much time are they investing in it?
2. How much are they beating VTSAX by?

I have a limited amount of time to research market movements and I'm generally unavailable during market hours. Those factors combined with the generally poor results that active traders achieve mean that index investing is the best path for me at this time. Everyone can't be John F Carter.

Even if you're not trading you should be semi-informed about what's coming down the road. What happens with the markets and economy affects everyone whether you are investing or not.

I pay attention to stuff that impacts us: changes in tax policy, contribution limit increases, inflation

I just don't pay attention to the CNBC stuff: jobs numbers, quarterly earnings, IPOs, or why the sky is surely going to fall next month

You did better than us....we were down 3.9%, but better than the Dow was down 4.6%, S&P 4.9%. The only changes we'll make this year is start piling up more cash and invest a bit less in the markets through this year....possibly next. We've done this in previous turbulent periods. Even in this inflationary period it's nice to keep some powder dry to move money in down the road when prices might be a bit more attractive. Hang tough, you'll get that second comma soon!

We had a really weird quarter if I'm being honest. Both big inflows of cash (bonuses, car insurance rebates) and outflows (vacation, final payment on a small DVC contract). I would have been perfectly happy to break even haha.

I mildly front loaded my 401k contributions this year so I'm planning to reduce investing a bit as well. Hoping I bought at market lows but it's unlikely.

 

[elaine amj]

My mother laughs at us - saying she’s never seen folks so excited whenever the market drops lol.

We have a chunk of extra cash I’d like to move into the market. DH fancies himself a market timer so I indulge him and wait to buy during dips in the market. He is too nervous to dump the whole sum in at once (which is my preference) so we are doing it in smaller chunks.

That said, I am so glad I pushed hard for index funds. I like not having to think about things, worrying about market ups and downs, and investing for the long term. My kids invested a chunk of money each last summer and their investments don’t look too hot right now. Good thing the plan is to not touch the money for 20-40 years. It’s best they just don’t look as psychologically it’s hard not to see your numbers going up every time.

We are FIREd so have to withdraw money sometimes and I was pleasantly surprised that I didn’t get too upset when it came time to sell. I don’t think too much or overdo trying to optimize it. We do keep 2 or so years expenses in cash in case the market takes a giant dive.

The last time I checked (a few weeks ago), our investments had of course dropped, but only to the level of a few months ago. Overall, due to the wild performance of the market in the last bunch of years, we are far, far ahead of any scenario I imagined (even after accounting for the current higher inflation). Now that we have been safely FIREd for a few years and our net worth has only continued to grow, I have loosened the purse strings a lot. I am watchful of rising inflation and if it starts moving toward hyperinflation, we will definitely cut back on all the extra discretionary spending we are doing.

 

[QueenIsabella]

We had to take out a big chunk this week--major trip coming up (and I do mean MAJOR!). I didn't feel too bad about it. We haven't gotten our quarterly statements--DH insists on paper, so they get mailed. But he did say that, despite our best efforts, we're maintaining. That's important because we're at a "high spend" time in our lives--we need at least one more (used) car. Plus, #4 starts college classes this fall--he's doing dual enrollment (he'll actually be a HS junior). He wants to be a chemical engineer, so he needs rigorous math and science courses. So, he's better off going to the State U, that his brother and sister attend. Naturally, if he had gone the community college route, it would have been free, while we have to pay tuition at the university. But, it's important that he gets challenging classes for a good foundation for engineering school.

So, 4--almost 5--licensed drivers means high car and insurance costs, plus the 3 tuitions. DD18 lives on campus, but still steals food when she's here. I need to get some of these kids out! (J/K, love them to death--but, yikes!)

More on topic--I'm a big fan of mutual funds. We were talking, deciding what to sell for this trip, and I pointed out that neither DH nor I have an interest in tracking individual stocks. If we did, we would, right?

We also set up a Roth for DS25. He works (and goes to school part time), but has autism, anxiety, and depression. We don't know if he'll ever live independently. He pays us rent ($100/week), which is what we threw in the Roth.

 

[Sjm9911]

Ok Fire people, is this doable. I have posted in the past. Now finally got my you wilp be fired notice. Lol. So, while it was expected , its not ideal. I kinda fuged my figures before. But now I am atually worried. I was never a fire person, didn't really want to retire early. But life sometimes isnt what you want.
Im, 48 , divorced, and have a 10 yo.
Owe about 300k on a house. Morgage and taxes, plus 600 extra to principle each month is 3000. ( its nj so high taxes, lol). Can, sell and move but dont want to. Home is worth a lot more then what I owe. I will have about 100k a year to spend, for now. In 10 years time , I can draw say another 24k from my accounts without taking from the principle. Acounts in 10 years time will be aprox 700k. I dont forsee needing them before that. Collage fund for kido isn't great at say 20k. I have 0 other debt. I will get 0 SS. Health care , me +kido is will be 600 a month.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Ok Fire people, is this doable. I have posted in the past. Now finally got my you wilp be fired notice. Lol. So, while it was expected , its not ideal. I kinda fuged my figures before. But now I am atually worried. I was never a fire person, didn't really want to retire early. But life sometimes isnt what you want.
Im, 48 , divorced, and have a 10 yo.
Owe about 300k on a house. Morgage and taxes, plus 600 extra to principle each month is 3000. ( its nj so high taxes, lol). Can, sell and move but dont want to. Home is worth a lot more then what I owe. I will have about 100k a year to spend, for now. In 10 years time , I can draw say another 24k from my accounts without taking from the principle. Acounts in 10 years time will be aprox 700k. I dont forsee needing them before that. Collage fund for kido isn't great at say 20k. I have 0 other debt. I will get 0 SS. Health care , me +kido is will be 600 a month.

Ok...a couple of questions. Is the 100K after you pay federal and state taxes? And is it from a pension that you'll have for the rest of your life? You mentioned that you have health insurance for you and your child covered at $600 per month. That sounds pretty cheap...is it through a previous employer or something....catastrophic care policy? What are the rest of your monthly expenses...utilities, groceries, other insurance like car/auto...etc. Is the 700K in ten years from a retirement account....sounds like you're calculating that you'll have 700K in ten years and then be prepared to pull 4% a year from that. And...when you say no SS, do you mean ever? I think that's all the questions I have.