It's a fantastic question. At its core, the question is, "How do I get faster?"
First thing I'd do is determine reasonable expectations. Based on the research I've read, and a small collection of data from runners here on the DIS, an average expectation is a 20-30% increase in VDOT from your first race. So go here (
link) and type in your first race. It'll give you a VDOT value, like 30.8 for someone who runs their first race as a 30 min 5k. From there, multiply that value by 1.2 to 1.3. So a person with a 30.8 gets a value of 36.9-40. I'd then go back into the VDOT calculator and find what 5k equals a 36.9-40 value (25:50-24:05). So a reasonable expectation is that someone who started off as a 30:00 min 5k runner could become maximally a 24:05-25:50 runner if they see an average response to training in their lifetime. Now, there are obvious caveats to this. There are people who respond more and less to training over their lifetimes. From the limited data from the DIS, we saw some runners do thousands of miles of training and years of effort, and improve by 5%. We saw others do similar volume and similar time and improve by 74%. So an individual's response will vary from the average response. The average just gives you a good general idea.
Next, the real question after having expectations is how to achieve that increase in speed over time. There are a couple of ways:
1) Consistency. Those who can put in good consistent efforts over time without being injured using appropriate training will see better long term gains. It's not a surprising answer, but it's true.
2) Endurance. Despite what you may think, one of the best ways to increase your overall speed (or short distance PRs like a 5k/10k) is with better endurance. Better endurance comes from a good balanced training plan, and generally speaking, lots of miles and time spent training. So if you've been doing 4-5 hrs of training per week, and you've handled the workload well, not been injured, etc. then see what doing 7-8 hrs of training per week could yield for you. In the absence of injury, the inclusion of more time spent training is one of the easiest ways to increase overall speed. Each of us has a unique cut point in which our bodies tend not to be able to handle more training, even if it's ideal training. For some, that limit is 6-7 hrs, for others maybe 9-10 hrs, and for some resilient runners they do 14-15 hrs per week. I work with a runner that consistently puts in 12-15 hrs of running per week and continues to put in good training sessions without being injured. He's a rare bird in being able to handle that kind of volume. But the data bears it out, that he's at his best when he's doing what I consider an elite level of volume.
Here's my data in a response to a change in volume in my training:
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From 2012 to mid-2015, I was typically doing about 800-1100 miles a year. So that breaks down to about 66-92 miles a month, and during my last marathon training cycle in early 2015 I was doing 90-115 miles per month (looks to be about 16 hrs per month). My VDOT hovered around 41 as a peak (23:35 5k). In mid-2015, I changed to Hansons which had me doing 200-230 miles per month (looks to be about 33 hrs per month). My VDOT increased to 45.7 (21:32 5k) after a single training cycle. So about a 9-11% increase in fitness by increasing my overall volume of training.
I spent years at the training volume, (mostly doing variations of Hansons training) and didn't see much of an increase up to Jan 2017. I ended up doing as much as 290 miles in a month. So that initial jump was what made the biggest increase. After that I went from 45.7 to 47 (21:00 5k) in about a little over a year.
3) True speed training that touches all over the pace spectrum. Lastly, comes good tried and true speed training. For me, it was the Daniels 5k/10k training found in his 3rd edition book. At that point in time when I started that training program, I had done 7500 career miles. I didn't expect to see many more gains in overall fitness. But his training plan covered paces that I didn't normally do. Run of the mill speed plans have your traditional 5k intervals (12x400, 8x600, 6x800, 4x1200 and 3x1600). But the Daniels plan did pacing at Mile paces, at VO2max pacing (near 3k), and at Lactate Threshold. Paces I had never worked with before that bracketed the traditional 5k pace speed workouts. And the response I saw off of a single training plan again blew my mind. I went from a VDOT of 47 to 51.4 (21:00 to 19:29 5k) or another 8-11% gain in fitness. So that's my recommendation. Try a speed based plan like Daniels 5k/10k that touches lots of different areas of the pace spectrum.
You can see since that training plan in 2017, I haven't improved much. I've seen my endurance gains from the near doubling of volume, and now the incorporation of a larger swath of training paces has yielded much the same results over the last five years. One caveat to that is I spent much of mid-2018 to mid 2021 doing a combination of run+bike+strength. Despite a massive increase in overall training volume, it did not lead to any increase in fitness. So I'm back to running more like I was between 2015-2018, and hoping with tweaks here and there to see if I can continue to push my personal envelope.
The solar is pretty useless IMO.
