Updated with results: What do you think I'll get at 7 months?

[BayGirl22]

Crowdsourcing predictions...

Planning a Feb/March 2022 trip and I've already booked my home resort for the last 7 nights - BWK 1 bdr boardwalk view. I had a studio for the whole trip but we really want a 1 bdr and the BWK views were going fast, so put all our BWK points towards the 1Bd and planned to do a split stay.

Now I need to wait to use my Aulani points at 7 months for Feb 23-28 - starting the Wed after Presidents Day and likely Princess Half Marathon weekend. Waiting for a loaded Aulani contract to close, should be in my account well ahead of the 7 month window in July. So I'm waiting impatiently and guessing at what will be available at 7 months. I've already poured over the past availability history, but 2021-22 is a totally different game.

Here's our resort order of priority - we'd prefer 1 bdr but could do a studio or 2bdr and don't mind getting a better view. We'll have 320 points to burn without borrowing, and I don't mind splurging for this trip, so I don't think # of points will be a constraint.

1. Poly
2. BLT
3. Copper Creek
4. Grand Floridian
5. Boulder Ridge
6. AK Jambo
7. AK Kidani
8. Any of the Epcot resorts
9. OKW/SSR

I'm tempering expectations and will be fine with ANY of these options and any room size. I'm just curious what others think my chances are - and thought it may be a fun wager. LOL
TIA for your opinions!

 

[Shellyred8]

I think at 7 months, for the timeframe you are looking at, you have a pretty good chance at getting any of those except VGF or BCV.

 

[Memorymakerfor4]

Agree with above, will add Standard view at BLT might be tough, but you shouldn't have an issue with Lake.

 

[Marionnette]

And I'll throw in that a CCV studio will probably be next to impossible.

Poly - depends on when the soft good refurb occurs

AKV - Kidani more likely than Jambo

BRV - will depend on how far they've gotten with the hard goods refurb that has been promised for 2021 but hasn't materialize as of yet.

 

[Sandisw]

I have had luck during that timeframe so I think you have a shot at all the resorts, if you are willing to not only waitlist but also stalk to get the rooms!

 

[BayGirl22]

Agree with above, will add Standard view at BLT might be tough, but you shouldn't have an issue with Lake.

Past data shows a 1bdr lake view at BLT would be easy - and that is almost my top choice. I'm not confident 2022 will be like that though.

 

[BayGirl22]

Thanks everyone - you all may be more optimistic than me. I hadn't factored in refurbs though, that could change things.

I'm totally willing to stalk openings and wait list from 7 months to 60 days, won't really change our plans at that point. I would love to have a monorail resort for the first half of the trip then BWK the last half.

 

[drusba]

That you will be seeking a 1BR probably gives you a decent chance of getting a room for the time you want although locations may be limited.

The possible issue is Feb 24 through 26, which would be the applicable Thurs through Sat nights for the Princess half-marathon weekend if it actually goes. In the past, that weekend has been the highest DVC demand time that occurs between mid-Jan and late Sep and it can be difficult to get rooms at 7-months out. To give an example, for that weekend in 2020, availability for rooms for all three weekend nights at 7 months out was limited to Kidani GVs and savanna view 1BRs, Jambo GVs, BLT lake view GVs, Poly bungalows, CCV cabins, BRV 1BRs, Rivieras GVs and dedicated preferred 2BRs, OKW GVs,1BRs and dedicated 2BRs, and SSR GVs, dedicated 2BRs, and 1BRs.

Such availability issues could be quite different in 2022 if the the race does not occur or, possibly, fewer than usual attempt to reserve by 7 months out (latter part of July) because of continuing unclarity on potential travel restrictions, particularly from non-US locations.

 

[BayGirl22]

Yes, the Princess half is the HUGE unknown. If they don't have it, or announce after July, I think I have a chance. Otherwise I think the pent up demand is going to make 2022 book up really fast.

 

[BayGirl22]

Figured I would come back and update this post now that I'm nearing 60 days out to my trip. I know waitlisting is a great unknown and people are often curious how much is opening up. So here's an update:

We now are arriving Feb 22 and have 3 nights in a Lakeview at Poly, then move to a 1bdr boardwalk view at BWV through March 6 (9 nights). So in short, I got my ideal combo booked. There were several steps to get there. Beginning with the last 7 nights at BWK, here was the progression:

1. First booked 4 nights at Boulder Ridge starting Feb 23
2. One night at Poly opened, then another, so I had 2 nights at Poly (decided to arrive Feb 22 instead of 23), a couple nights at Boulder Ridge, then BWK
3. A few nights in the middle opened at BWK so I added them on
4. The remaining random night was Thursday Feb 24, the night before the half marathon (no surprise) - I had 1 night at BRV still
5. Randomly found an AKL Jambo Value 1bdr and grabbed that - so I had 2 nights at Poly, 1 at AKL, then the rest at BWK. That's where I was stuck for 3-4 months
6. This week I got a confirmation that my waitlist cleared at the Poly for the 3rd night. There were also a couple other options like GFV but I was looking to consolidate.

Overall I'd say I checked manually at least weekly, sometimes more, in addition to wait lists for Poly and BWK for that middle night.

Another bonus: it cleared 5 days before my dining window opens, which means I only need to book in 2 buckets.

Separately, I had a bit of Pixie Dust early on and member services let me borrow 3 extra points from next year to book a studio for the last weekend at BWK, for my father to visit. These were direct points, and my first stay, at about 9 months out - so at the time was my Welcome Home stay.

Will miss trying AKL but we have plenty of years to go back. I'm super excited to be at Poly and BWK.