VDH Opening

[HIRyeDVC]

Open question: What incentivized price per point would get you to buy?

$0.51pp TOT and free parking

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

There is a near zero chance we will buy at VDH, but I am still checking all threads on PurchasingDVC near constantly waiting to see what the incentives are. Sending the best of luck to those of you who have decided to buy!

 

[HIRyeDVC]

There is a near zero chance we will buy at VDH

 

[nalabear]

$200 per pt

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Hahaha, I did qualify near zero and I meant to say “near zero chance we will buy at VDH tomorrow.”

If Disney does a dramatic flash sale I’ll pick up points for sure. Going to make my first pilgrimage to StarView Station on Friday— at least a 10% chance I leave with more points.

 

[DMPicone]

When we stayed at VGC we loved watching World of Color from our balcony but also went to the private DVC patio two nights as well. I own BLT which has its own fireworks patio as well. Doesn't sound like VDH includes any kind of top level patio area like the other two. Has anyone heard of anything like that?

 

[AmicusDye]

I'm looking for any reason to buy, but am struggling with the numbers.

I view all purchases through the lens of "break even point." The shorter, the better. I realize others approach this differently. But still, I can't make the back-of-the-napkin math work for me on this. Maybe someone can show me the error of my ways...

If we buy 100 points, I'd want to do it in two contracts (50 points each). For simplicity, lets say total closing costs are $1k, so the total initial investment is $24k (at $230 per point).

Based on the points charts, that likely gets us about 4 to 4.5 stays per year (call it 4.25). If we assign a pre-tax value of $700 per stay, that is $2,975 per year of value. However, between yearly dues (- $900), ToT (-$275), and parking (- $150), the yearly value changes as follows: $2,975 - 900 - 275 - 150 = $1650 of yearly value.

If we divide the initial investment by the yearly value ($24k/$1,650) the break even point is 14.5 years from now. That seems like an awfully long payoff period for a non-essential purchase.

Happy to listen to anyone who crunched the numbers and came up with a better way of looking at it.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Hahaha, I did qualify near zero and I meant to say “near zero chance we will buy at VDH tomorrow.”

If Disney does a dramatic flash sale I’ll pick up points for sure. Going to make my first pilgrimage to StarView Station on Friday— at least a 10% chance I leave with more points.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I'm looking for any reason to buy, but am struggling with the numbers.

I view all purchases through the lens of "break even point." The shorter, the better. I realize others approach this differently. But still, I can't make the back-of-the-napkin math work for me on this. Maybe someone can show me the error of my ways...

If we buy 100 points, I'd want to do it in two contracts (50 points each). For simplicity, lets say total closing costs are $1k, so the total initial investment is $24k (at $230 per point).

Based on the points charts, that likely gets us about 4 to 4.5 stays per year (call it 4.25). If we assign a pre-tax value of $700 per stay, that is $2,975 per year of value. However, between yearly dues (- $900), ToT (-$275), and parking (- $150), the yearly value changes as follows: $2,975 - 900 - 275 - 150 = $1650 of yearly value.

If we divide the initial investment by the yearly value ($24k/$1,650) the break even point is 14.5 years from now. That seems like an awfully long payoff period for a non-essential purchase.

Happy to listen to anyone who crunched the numbers and came up with a better way of looking at it.

Your numbers are probably right. What you’re probably missing is that for most people looking to buy, the Disneyland Hotel is purely emotional nostalgia. It’s not rational. But often times, are passion for a Disney isn’t. It’s all emotional.

 

[Royal Consort]

Guides here at DL are telling me that incentives are generous. Take that with as much a grain of salt as you would like. We will see tomorrow.

 

[Sunnyore]

I'm looking for any reason to buy, but am struggling with the numbers.

I view all purchases through the lens of "break even point." The shorter, the better. I realize others approach this differently. But still, I can't make the back-of-the-napkin math work for me on this. Maybe someone can show me the error of my ways...

If we buy 100 points, I'd want to do it in two contracts (50 points each). For simplicity, lets say total closing costs are $1k, so the total initial investment is $24k (at $230 per point).

Based on the points charts, that likely gets us about 4 to 4.5 stays per year (call it 4.25). If we assign a pre-tax value of $700 per stay, that is $2,975 per year of value. However, between yearly dues (- $900), ToT (-$275), and parking (- $150), the yearly value changes as follows: $2,975 - 900 - 275 - 150 = $1650 of yearly value.

If we divide the initial investment by the yearly value ($24k/$1,650) the break even point is 14.5 years from now. That seems like an awfully long payoff period for a non-essential purchase.

Happy to listen to anyone who crunched the numbers and came up with a better way of looking at it.

Hmm I did my calculations yesterday to see about when I wound break even and it was around 8-9 yrs for me for 75 points. My way may not be as accurate but I punched in data for 2023 and 2024 since I have those numbers (I calculated my cost per room at $16.68pp and compared it to what I would book with cash) and it’s about $2k saving each year. I didn’t include parking cuz it better be included! If I’m way off on my numbers, please don’t correct me ppl because I’m ready to buy this week

 

[SleighBelle]

I'm looking for any reason to buy, but am struggling with the numbers.

I view all purchases through the lens of "break even point." The shorter, the better. I realize others approach this differently. But still, I can't make the back-of-the-napkin math work for me on this. Maybe someone can show me the error of my ways...

If we buy 100 points, I'd want to do it in two contracts (50 points each). For simplicity, lets say total closing costs are $1k, so the total initial investment is $24k (at $230 per point).

Based on the points charts, that likely gets us about 4 to 4.5 stays per year (call it 4.25). If we assign a pre-tax value of $700 per stay, that is $2,975 per year of value. However, between yearly dues (- $900), ToT (-$275), and parking (- $150), the yearly value changes as follows: $2,975 - 900 - 275 - 150 = $1650 of yearly value.

If we divide the initial investment by the yearly value ($24k/$1,650) the break even point is 14.5 years from now. That seems like an awfully long payoff period for a non-essential purchase.

Happy to listen to anyone who crunched the numbers and came up with a better way of looking at it.

I also look at the cost *without* DVC. . . What is the rack rate of the room? Am I saving money?
I also look to see the cost/benefit if I didn’t stay. Can I rent the points? What is the margin?
There have been times when I have rented half of out my points and that rental paid for all my MFs.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Guides here at DL are telling me that incentives are generous. Take that with as much a grain of salt as you would like. We will see tomorrow.

Time to go pawn some heirlooms.

 

[noisycricket]

Guides here at DL are telling me that incentives are generous. Take that with as much a grain of salt as you would like.

"Generous" incentives probably won't start unless you buy more than 300,000 points....

 

[Dobermanns]

I'm looking for any reason to buy, but am struggling with the numbers.

I view all purchases through the lens of "break even point." The shorter, the better. I realize others approach this differently. But still, I can't make the back-of-the-napkin math work for me on this. Maybe someone can show me the error of my ways...

If we buy 100 points, I'd want to do it in two contracts (50 points each). For simplicity, lets say total closing costs are $1k, so the total initial investment is $24k (at $230 per point).

Based on the points charts, that likely gets us about 4 to 4.5 stays per year (call it 4.25). If we assign a pre-tax value of $700 per stay, that is $2,975 per year of value. However, between yearly dues (- $900), ToT (-$275), and parking (- $150), the yearly value changes as follows: $2,975 - 900 - 275 - 150 = $1650 of yearly value.

If we divide the initial investment by the yearly value ($24k/$1,650) the break even point is 14.5 years from now. That seems like an awfully long payoff period for a non-essential purchase.

Happy to listen to anyone who crunched the numbers and came up with a better way of looking at it.

Since you are including the ToT and parking in your DVC room, you need to include the 17% tax and parking to your cash room.

 

[Canchaser143]

Perhaps a cooler AND a luggage set!

 

[Stldisney]

Hmm I did my calculations yesterday to see about when I wound break even and it was around 8-9 yrs for me for 75 points. My way may not be as accurate but I punched in data for 2023 and 2024 since I have those numbers (I calculated my cost per room at $16.68pp and compared it to what I would book with cash) and it’s about $2k saving each year. I didn’t include parking cuz it better be included! If I’m way off on my numbers, please don’t correct me ppl because I’m ready to buy this week

I think your calculations sound correct. I was using $230/50 years = $4.6 (base cost). Then add that to $2.73 (tax) + $9.06 (annual dues) to get $16.39 per point.
If you go for 3 day trip ( for example Thurs-Sun in June)
75 points for standard view studio = $1,229
138 points for 1 bedroom = $2,261
211 point for 2 bedroom = $3,458

Compared to Grand Californian for a hypothetical $265 per point resale contract. $265/36 years = $7.36 + $8.04 dues = $15.76
68 points for studio = $1,071
135 points 1 bedroom = $2,127
182 points for 2 bedroom = $2,868.32

Depends on what you would usually spend on cash stays to see what kind of value you would be getting. Not sure if all my numbers are perfect but that is the math I have been using.

 

[upritbass]

Since you are including the ToT and parking in your DVC room, you need to include the 17% tax and parking to your cash room.

Plus resale value?

 

[Dobermanns]

Plus resale value?

I wouldn’t include resale value. That’s the worst case scenario.

 

[elenex]

First visit to star view just a week away! I'm at near zero chance as well, but if they're giving great incentives at low buy in, never say never...