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VDH Unit and Sales Tracker
- Thread starter ehh
- Start date
HIRyeDVC
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2021
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...s-continue-on-a-robust-pace-in-september-2023
Direct sales are booming!! Well,... at least for VGF and not so much for the rest. Especially not VDH. VGF sold more than 180k points in September alone while VDH only sold 31k. But I'm not so optimistic that VDH incentives will get better. VGF probably saw really aggressive incentives to prepare the way for the Poly Tower while VDH has nothing coming afterwards at Disneyland. They are probably fine with selling VDH for the next 10 years at a higher price point considering the lack of options.
Direct sales are booming!! Well,... at least for VGF and not so much for the rest. Especially not VDH. VGF sold more than 180k points in September alone while VDH only sold 31k. But I'm not so optimistic that VDH incentives will get better. VGF probably saw really aggressive incentives to prepare the way for the Poly Tower while VDH has nothing coming afterwards at Disneyland. They are probably fine with selling VDH for the next 10 years at a higher price point considering the lack of options.
UrsulaWantsYourSoul
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2020
Exactly this.
. The deep incentives obviously drove sales for VGF. I mean resale restrictions and TOT don’t exactly help VDH fly off the shelf. But I’m going to guess sales will spike up some now that it’s open and people can tour those gorgeous rooms.
ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
Weekly update!
Total points recorded to date: ~499.6k points (15.3%)
Total points declared to date: ~727k points (22.3%)
Points recorded last week (October 8 - 14): 8.4k points
Sell out date based on last week's rate of recorded points: January 2030
Date more points must be declared based on last week's rate of recorded points: April 2024
Last 4 weeks: ~29.4k points
Rolling 4 week average: ~7.4k points/wk
Sell out date based on last 4 weeks' rate of recorded points: January 2031
A rare week where points recorded exceeds the average from the last 4 weeks. Things have been trending down for a long time but we might be starting to see the very beginning of the post-opening purchases.
Contracts recorded last week were likely mostly purchased between Sept 23 and Oct 2, right around opening. If impressions from in-person tours, virtual tours, media attention, and cash stays is positive then we should start to see sales pick up, even if only a little bit.
It's likely I will switch to monthly and ad hoc updates after the post-opening contracts have filtered through.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded last week:
Unit/date breakdown:
"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
Total points recorded to date: ~499.6k points (15.3%)
Total points declared to date: ~727k points (22.3%)
Points recorded last week (October 8 - 14): 8.4k points
Sell out date based on last week's rate of recorded points: January 2030
Date more points must be declared based on last week's rate of recorded points: April 2024
Last 4 weeks: ~29.4k points
Rolling 4 week average: ~7.4k points/wk
Sell out date based on last 4 weeks' rate of recorded points: January 2031
A rare week where points recorded exceeds the average from the last 4 weeks. Things have been trending down for a long time but we might be starting to see the very beginning of the post-opening purchases.
Contracts recorded last week were likely mostly purchased between Sept 23 and Oct 2, right around opening. If impressions from in-person tours, virtual tours, media attention, and cash stays is positive then we should start to see sales pick up, even if only a little bit.
It's likely I will switch to monthly and ad hoc updates after the post-opening contracts have filtered through.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded last week:
- 44 contracts recorded, a new low
- 17x 150pt contracts
- 8x 200pt contracts
- 5x 50pt contracts
- 3x 100pt contracts
- 11x other contracts
- 191.8pt average contract size last week, the highest yet
- Week one was 124.6pt average
- Week two was 130.9pt average
- Week three was 132.5pt average
- Week four was 108.1pt average
- Week five was 143.0pt average
- Week six was 146.6pt average
- Week seven was 150.4pt average
- Week eight was 165.5pt average
- Week nine was 158.9pt average
- Week ten was 169.2pt average
- Week eleven was 153.6pt average
- Week twelve was 161.4pt average
- Week thirteen was 133.1pt average
- Week fourteen was 163.1pt average
- Week fifteen was 139.9pt average
- Week sixteen was 161.1pt average
- Week seventeen was 139.2pt average
- Week eighteen was 160.5pt average
- Week nineteen was 144.4pt average
- Week twenty was 160.3pt average
- Week twenty-one was 127.9pt average
- 1000pt is largest contract
- 50pt is smallest contract
- 250pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
- Unit 1E was assigned the most (5.8k, 2nd most was 2A at 1.8k)
- 1B remains dormant, essentially sold out
- I'm going to consider the following also 'basically sold out': 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, and 1J
- All of these Units are at fewer than 10k available points, most even less than that, and are only showing up sporadically in recorded contracts
Unit/date breakdown:
"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
NorCalFanatic
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2023
I wouldn’t be surprised to see very little in incentives for VDH, they’ll have no problem at all renting those rooms out for cash.
ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
Weekly update! We crossed 500k on Oct 16, 2023! (not sure if anyone was taking bets)
Total points recorded to date: ~508k points (15.6%)
Total points declared to date: ~727k points (22.3%)
Points recorded last week (October 15 - 21): 8.4k points
Sell out date based on last week's rate of recorded points: January 2030
Date more points must be declared based on last week's rate of recorded points: April 2024
Last 4 weeks: ~31.3k points
Rolling 4 week average: ~7.8k points/wk
Sell out date based on last 4 weeks' rate of recorded points: July 2030
Two weeks in a row where points recorded exceeds the average from the last 4 weeks, i.e., things are trending up. But just barely. This last two weeks likely include the very beginning of the post-opening sales. And it's not a surge in sales.
Contracts recorded last week were likely mostly purchased between Sept 30 and Oct 9, right after opening. I was expecting to see an uptick in contracts recorded around now due to in-person tours, virtual tours, media attention, and cash stays, but it seems it's still slow going.
It's likely I will switch to monthly and ad hoc updates after the post-opening contracts have filtered through.
It's somewhat likely we had a Fixed Week sale this week though! Due to how the tax is recorded in OCRW, and how I use this tax as a proxy for points, it's not always possible to be sure of the exact points in a contract. Last week a contract of either 341 or 340 points was recorded. 340 is kind of an odd number, but 341 is the number of points for a FW during Season 6 in a 1BR. Season 6 is Mar 15-23 and Apr 1-30 in 2024.
There was also a 169pt contract recorded, but I'm not sure that's a FW as there are no 154pt weeks in the calendar. Maybe FW always round up or down? If so, a 153pt week might make sense, except that's only a Garden Duo, which has no FW. If anyone has the FW chart, sharing is caring!
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded last week:
Unit/date breakdown:
"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
Total points recorded to date: ~508k points (15.6%)
Total points declared to date: ~727k points (22.3%)
Points recorded last week (October 15 - 21): 8.4k points
Sell out date based on last week's rate of recorded points: January 2030
Date more points must be declared based on last week's rate of recorded points: April 2024
Last 4 weeks: ~31.3k points
Rolling 4 week average: ~7.8k points/wk
Sell out date based on last 4 weeks' rate of recorded points: July 2030
Two weeks in a row where points recorded exceeds the average from the last 4 weeks, i.e., things are trending up. But just barely. This last two weeks likely include the very beginning of the post-opening sales. And it's not a surge in sales.
Contracts recorded last week were likely mostly purchased between Sept 30 and Oct 9, right after opening. I was expecting to see an uptick in contracts recorded around now due to in-person tours, virtual tours, media attention, and cash stays, but it seems it's still slow going.
It's likely I will switch to monthly and ad hoc updates after the post-opening contracts have filtered through.
It's somewhat likely we had a Fixed Week sale this week though! Due to how the tax is recorded in OCRW, and how I use this tax as a proxy for points, it's not always possible to be sure of the exact points in a contract. Last week a contract of either 341 or 340 points was recorded. 340 is kind of an odd number, but 341 is the number of points for a FW during Season 6 in a 1BR. Season 6 is Mar 15-23 and Apr 1-30 in 2024.
There was also a 169pt contract recorded, but I'm not sure that's a FW as there are no 154pt weeks in the calendar. Maybe FW always round up or down? If so, a 153pt week might make sense, except that's only a Garden Duo, which has no FW. If anyone has the FW chart, sharing is caring!
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded last week:
- 46 contracts recorded
- 15x 150pt contracts
- 7x 200pt contracts
- 6x 100pt contracts
- 4x 50pt contracts
- 3x 250pt contracts
- 11x other contracts
- 183.2pt average contract size last week, the 2nd highest yet (seems the post-opening buyers go big!)
- Week one was 124.6pt average
- Week two was 130.9pt average
- Week three was 132.5pt average
- Week four was 108.1pt average
- Week five was 143.0pt average
- Week six was 146.6pt average
- Week seven was 150.4pt average
- Week eight was 165.5pt average
- Week nine was 158.9pt average
- Week ten was 169.2pt average
- Week eleven was 153.6pt average
- Week twelve was 161.4pt average
- Week thirteen was 133.1pt average
- Week fourteen was 163.1pt average
- Week fifteen was 139.9pt average
- Week sixteen was 161.1pt average
- Week seventeen was 139.2pt average
- Week eighteen was 160.5pt average
- Week nineteen was 144.4pt average
- Week twenty was 160.3pt average
- Week twenty-one was 127.9pt average
- Week twenty-two was 191.8pt average
- 510pt is largest contract, kind of an oddball size but doesn't appear to be a FW
- 50pt is smallest contract
- 300pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
- Unit 1E was assigned the most (6.6k, 2nd most was 2A at 650pts)
- 1B remains dormant, essentially sold out
- I'm going to consider the following also 'basically sold out': 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, and 1J
- All of these Units are at fewer than 10k available points, most even less than that, and are only showing up sporadically in recorded contracts
Unit/date breakdown:
"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
Thanks! Looks like they do 'normal' rounding.
Here is a link for future ref: https://dvcexplorer.com/fin/fw/fw-VillasAtDisneyland.pdf
I really wanted to get a 1BR fixed week but they didn't offer that during pre-sale, likely because they did not declare enough 1BRs then.
HIRyeDVC
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2021
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/first-dvc-resale-contract-for-the-villas-at-disneyland-hotel/
Well that didn't take long. First VDH resale contract up for sale!
Well that didn't take long. First VDH resale contract up for sale!
Chili327
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Feb 18, 2023
I just came here to post this… at $185 that’s not a bad place to start!!!
Who had 1-month in the poll??
NorCalFanatic
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2023
Hopefully it’s not someone who had a personal tragedy and needs to sell it.
ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
Monthly Update!
Total points recorded as of October 31st: ~519k points (15.9% of all points).
Points recorded in August: ~33k points.
October sales broke the trend downward, but just barely. September sales were 31.6k and October was 33k. October includes roughly 2 weeks of sales post-opening, when reviews and tours were available.
At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 83 months, roughly mid/late 2030!
Despite this, DVC hasn't ramped up incentives at all. As I've detailed in the past, there is a potential rationale for keeping this sluggish sales pace: they already booked the rooms on cash and can't add inventory via declarations before 2024.
Currently ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~16% of the resort has been sold. That leaves just ~6.3% of headroom, roughly 207k points, before more Units must be declared. At the current sales rate of ~7.7k/wk, that's just 27 weeks from the end of October, which works out to Mar/Apr 2024.
My thinking here could be completely unfounded, but considering they started renting rooms on cash prior to any sales starting, they may have heavily relied on their sales forecasts to determine how much inventory they could rent. That forecast is in the POS and it's the current level of declarations, 'just' 22.3% of points.
My guess a month ago was that the inventory they allotted to cash rentals was conservative and they left plenty of buffer for solid sales, making being correct in their prediction insignificant and we will see more declarations before Jan 1, 2024. Now I'm more skeptical--I think initial sales were faster than they expected and they've needed to pump the brakes a bit.
It will be interesting to see how sales change now that VDH is sold out. As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.
Fun facts about October's sales:
Nothing remarkable about mega-contracts, just one 1000pt contract at the top of the pile.
Unit 1E was the top seller again, roughly 70% of all sales this month, roughly 5.5x 2nd most (2A).
There was one potential Favorite Week contract, a 341 (or maybe 340...) point contract that could be a FW in a 1BR during Season 6 (Spring-but-not-Spring-Break). It's possible I'm overcorrecting some of the tax values posted. If anyone wants me to explain this, I can, but it's very inside baseball for this.
There was also a 169pt contract, but I can't find a FW that matches that. Maybe they just wanted a nice contract with incentives, or are targeting a specific non-week stay.
It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, and maybe 1J. We still haven't seen 1A or 1I (one eye) show up in any recorded deeds yet. I'm also not sure how many Units are in Phase 2, but we've only seen Unit 2A from Phase 2 so far, but I suspect there's at least 2B and 2C, possibly also 2D.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in October:
"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
Points recorded by month:
Total points recorded as of October 31st: ~519k points (15.9% of all points).
Points recorded in August: ~33k points.
October sales broke the trend downward, but just barely. September sales were 31.6k and October was 33k. October includes roughly 2 weeks of sales post-opening, when reviews and tours were available.
At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 83 months, roughly mid/late 2030!
Despite this, DVC hasn't ramped up incentives at all. As I've detailed in the past, there is a potential rationale for keeping this sluggish sales pace: they already booked the rooms on cash and can't add inventory via declarations before 2024.
Currently ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~16% of the resort has been sold. That leaves just ~6.3% of headroom, roughly 207k points, before more Units must be declared. At the current sales rate of ~7.7k/wk, that's just 27 weeks from the end of October, which works out to Mar/Apr 2024.
My thinking here could be completely unfounded, but considering they started renting rooms on cash prior to any sales starting, they may have heavily relied on their sales forecasts to determine how much inventory they could rent. That forecast is in the POS and it's the current level of declarations, 'just' 22.3% of points.
My guess a month ago was that the inventory they allotted to cash rentals was conservative and they left plenty of buffer for solid sales, making being correct in their prediction insignificant and we will see more declarations before Jan 1, 2024. Now I'm more skeptical--I think initial sales were faster than they expected and they've needed to pump the brakes a bit.
It will be interesting to see how sales change now that VDH is sold out. As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.
Fun facts about October's sales:
Nothing remarkable about mega-contracts, just one 1000pt contract at the top of the pile.
Unit 1E was the top seller again, roughly 70% of all sales this month, roughly 5.5x 2nd most (2A).
There was one potential Favorite Week contract, a 341 (or maybe 340...) point contract that could be a FW in a 1BR during Season 6 (Spring-but-not-Spring-Break). It's possible I'm overcorrecting some of the tax values posted. If anyone wants me to explain this, I can, but it's very inside baseball for this.
There was also a 169pt contract, but I can't find a FW that matches that. Maybe they just wanted a nice contract with incentives, or are targeting a specific non-week stay.
It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, and maybe 1J. We still haven't seen 1A or 1I (one eye) show up in any recorded deeds yet. I'm also not sure how many Units are in Phase 2, but we've only seen Unit 2A from Phase 2 so far, but I suspect there's at least 2B and 2C, possibly also 2D.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in October:
- 200 contracts recorded
- 71x 150pt contracts (72 the prior month)
- 24x 50pt contracts (30 the prior month)
- 24x 200pt contracts (27 the prior month)
- 22x 100pt contracts (21 the prior month)
- 13x 250pt contracts (13 the prior month)
- 10x 75pt contracts (13 the prior month)
- 36x other contracts (35 the prior month)
- 165.1pt average contract size in October
- May had an average of 128.2pt
- June had an average of 142.8pt
- July had an average of 157.2pt
- August had an average of 152.7pt
- September had an average of 149.8pt
- 1,000pt is largest contract in September
- 50pt is smallest contract
- 400pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
- Unit 1E was assigned the most (23.3k, 2nd most was 2A at 4.3k)
"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
Points recorded by month:
HIRyeDVC
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2021
NorCalFanatic
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2023
The transient tax has been the same since '94, 15%, so not ever increasing. There is talk of a gate tax of 2-3%, but that would be based on tickets. The transient tax has not changed or increased since '94
ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
Yep, good catch!
HIRyeDVC
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2021
I thought I saw somewhere that said the TAT at VDH will be $2.84pp in 2024?
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