Villains expansion changed to 5th gate possibly?

[HopperFan]

I don't want to spend all day debating because this is such a pie-in-the-sky discussion and people will selectively poke holes in any theory.

But here's my counter to the above. Imagine Disney does this. They build another land with 2-3 attractions at Hollywood Studios. They build attractions in a couple Epcot countries, maybe update Figment and finish WoL. What's the net impact?

- More guests at HS and Epcot. How many more? Based upon recent experiences with Galaxy's edge and Pandora, maybe net 500k per park.
- More guests at each of those parks means more people wanting to ride Rise, TOT, RNR, Frozen, Test Track, etc.
- More people at those parks means they're more crowded than now. Especially in an area like the World Showcase where you might be able to shoehorn a couple attractions but you aren't adding much additional room for foot traffic. The WS can already get extremely crowded, especially during festivals, concerts, etc.

Those two parks will never match the attraction density of MK, in no small part because of how they are already laid out.

Now imagine they take the same resources and invest in a 5th park. It opens with a couple E-tickets, a couple kid-friendly people eaters, a stage show, a walk-through. 6+ attractions on Day 1 with other investments planned. In the first full year, you're drawing 5-6 million guests IMO. Much of that will be cannibalized from the other parks. You're not immediately adding that much new business. But consider the full impact property wide:

- Improved experience for all at the existing 4 parks
- Reduced demand for Rise, GOTG, Tron, etc.
- Reignite interest among the faithful. I don't want to pigeonhole discussion to this 20 year old idea of a villains park, but whatever it is would make the Disney skeptics immediately take notice.
- New opportunities for Genie+ and ILL sales. I'm of the opinion that you don't need G+ every day of every trip. But add another park and that's at least one more day when G+ would come in handy. Plus $20 per person ILL sales for the park's signature attraction.
- Possible increase in park hopping purchase. A new park will never be a "full day" experience. But many people will still want to see the latest-and-greatest while preserving the ability to go elsewhere before or after.
- New opportunities for destination dining experiences (a la Be Our Guest or Space 220) and other upcharge events planned for the park from Day One.
- New high profile hotel + DVC destination. In 2023, it's kind of a no-brainer to build a hotel on the doorstep of any new park.

Yes there are many logistical issues I'm glossing over like initial construction costs, staffing, guest transportation, RCID management changes, etc. None are insurmountable hurdles, though the cost and/or logistics could be enough to torpedo the concept.

The key to all of this is Disney's claim that they are now more interested in quality over quantity. If they just want bodies thru gates with the lowest overhead possible, adding to EP and HS makes all the sense in the world. (But then we wouldn't have Park Pass attendance caps and they'd probably be selling Annual Passes.)

But if Disney is truly worried about guest satisfaction and are willing to spend toward the end-goal of less crowded paths and shorter wait times at some of the most popular attractions, a new park seems like the easiest way to accomplish that.

Yup, we all have our theories. Won't bother with bullet points, I just disagree with most of your projections.

 

[tjkraz]

I don't think the absence of a 5th gate has a lot to do with labor issues, as much as the fact that typical US vacations aren't really long enough to justify one.

Agree the typical guest would probably not extend their trip for another park. In my mind, the question is what's the most effective long-term solution for WDW to continue improving attendance. Likely thru the addition of new visitors.

In 2015, the four parks had combined attendance of 51.4 million. By 2019 it was up to 57.8 million. While there is SPACE to continue building at the existing parks, I don't think that space is unlimited. They've certainly picked-off the low hanging fruit over the last 10 years.

Assuming Disney wants attendance to grow by another 10-15% in the next few years, can you realistically accomplish that by just adding a couple new attractions each to EP and HS, or do you reach a point where you're treading water as some guests grow weary of what those parks have morphed into?

 

[Brian Noble]

I'm not sure attendance growth is the goal. Reading between (and within) the lines of some of the earnings transcripts, I get the sense they'd be as happy or happier to keep or even shrink attendance if each person were more profitable.

 

[gharter]

I think there is So much possibility in a villain's park, but I don't think you will ever se it happen. But the rides, shows and attractions could be amazing!

 

[tjkraz]

I'm not sure attendance growth is the goal. Reading between (and within) the lines of some of the earnings transcripts, I get the sense they'd be as happy or happier to keep or even shrink attendance if each person were more profitable.

Very true. Though Iger has also acknowledged that Disney pushed the envelope on pricing too aggressively. If they've set a (lower) hard cap on attendance and are reluctant to increase prices, it's going to be difficult to continue growing revenue. Small park additions like a Mary Poppins spinner ride, Spaceship Earth redo and replacement for SGE aren't enough to expand guest capacity. That will require bolder moves.

 

[Luxurious_Lumiere]

The note about vacation time is the most important aspect as to why there probably will never be a fifth gate. At least not for a few decades.

Most travelers have a set amount of PTO to use for vacations. I've been with my company long enough that I'm at the highest number of vacation days I can earn. And you cant use all of your vacation time for Disney (people also need them for holiday travel, other vacation destinations, other life obligations, etc). So Disney can add as many parks as they want, but I still only have the same amount of time I can commit to a Disney vacation. A fifth gate wont suddenly grant me an extra vacation day at my company, nor will it eliminate other obligations for which I need to use my PTO. Beyond labor shortages and costs (which are also huge, important deterrents at this current moment), vacation time is the ultimate 5th gate killer.

I do think we could get a Villains land in MK. I personally REALLY hope they just go all in on this for the "beyond Thunder Mountain" area, and save Coco and Encanto for elsewhere (love those films and want attractions based on them, but MK doesn't have any other lands based solely on one movie and I think its a shortsighted mistake to start that trend now). Look at what Universal is doing with Classic Monsters Land. Give us a great MK expansion, with a state-of-the-art dark ride where we are cast as heroes taking on Maleficent and all the villains in an epic adventure. Give us a cool, immersive setting which acts as a great anchor point for Halloween festivities. But it will only ever be a land, not a whole park.

 

[AvidDisReader]

The note about vacation time is the most important aspect as to why there probably will never be a fifth gate. At least not for a few decades.

Most travelers have a set amount of PTO to use for vacations. I've been with my company long enough that I'm at the highest number of vacation days I can earn. And you cant use all of your vacation time for Disney (people also need them for holiday travel, other vacation destinations, other life obligations, etc). So Disney can add as many parks as they want, but I still only have the same amount of time I can commit to a Disney vacation. A fifth gate wont suddenly grant me an extra vacation day at my company, nor will it eliminate other obligations for which I need to use my PTO. Beyond labor shortages and costs (which are also huge, important deterrents at this current moment), vacation time is the ultimate 5th gate killer.

I do think we could get a Villains land in MK. I personally REALLY hope they just go all in on this for the "beyond Thunder Mountain" area, and save Coco and Encanto for elsewhere (love those films and want attractions based on them, but MK doesn't have any other lands based solely on one movie and I think its a shortsighted mistake to start that trend now). Look at what Universal is doing with Classic Monsters Land. Give us a great MK expansion, with a state-of-the-art dark ride where we are cast as heroes taking on Maleficent and all the villains in an epic adventure. Give us a cool, immersive setting which acts as a great anchor point for Halloween festivities. But it will only ever be a land, not a whole park.

Not so sure about this. You currently have many a vactioneer who will spend 4 or 5 days at Disney but still find time to sneak in a couple of days at Universal. If the goal is to keep those 2 days away from Universal, what better way than to add another park.

 

[NotUrsula]

What I heard in Iger's remarks was that perceived overcrowding was a definite stress point for guest satisfaction, and relieving it is a priority. They can get us all hyped up on the promise of new attractions (I don't believe there will be a 5th gate in my lifetime, so I'm not even going there), but the simplest and cheapest solution is neither one of these. It's ...
landscaping. And that, folks, is where I'll place my bet for the next 3 years.

Look for more trees to disappear, beds and shrubbery to shrink, and outdoor queue areas to be re-routed into areas that are currently behind ride buildings, disguised by plants and decorative fencing. Some tables will also probably be removed from outdoor dining areas that abut sidewalks.

I think that the bulk of "new attractions" that we will see in the next 3 years will be digital shows, possibly featuring some drones. This is stuff that is very easily outsourced, and once programmed, requires very few humans to operate.

 

[Luxurious_Lumiere]

Not so sure about this. You currently have many a vactioneer who will spend 4 or 5 days at Disney but still find time to sneak in a couple of days at Universal. If the goal is to keep those 2 days away from Universal, what better way than to add another park.

I'm definitely sure about this, as it is a common statistic sited by travel analysts. It's a concept that extends beyond just Disney World.

 

[tjkraz]

Most travelers have a set amount of PTO to use for vacations. I've been with my company long enough that I'm at the highest number of vacation days I can earn. And you cant use all of your vacation time for Disney (people also need them for holiday travel, other vacation destinations, other life obligations, etc). So Disney can add as many parks as they want, but I still only have the same amount of time I can commit to a Disney vacation. A fifth gate wont suddenly grant me an extra vacation day at my company, nor will it eliminate other obligations for which I need to use my PTO. Beyond labor shortages and costs (which are also huge, important deterrents at this current moment), vacation time is the ultimate 5th gate killer.

To be clear, my perspective on a 5th gate is that *IF* Disney is sincere in its desire to thin out crowds and improve the overall experience, I propose they may be able to accomplish that much more effectively by building a new park with 6-8 attractions rather than adding 2 attractions to each of the existing parks in the near term. It's not about building another destination and extending current stays, it's about creating more total capacity with a new destination.

There are plenty of holes to poke in that. By no means are my thoughts to be considered a rumor. There is no insider information here. My primary point is that as someone who has followed the parks closely for 20+ years, the idea of a 5th gate seems to jive more with Disney's philosophies today than at any other time in recent memory.

Supposedly WDW was on the verge of creating some boutique experience (Night Kingdom?) back around 2008 before the housing crisis & recession. The Reedy Creek long term plan did make accommodations for 2 additional parks, if memory serves. (Not that anyone expected them to break ground in the near future.)

MK, EP and HS all have little pockets where they could expand. But in doing so, you're adding more guests to Main Street and the World Showcase walkways. You're bringing more people into those parks who want to ride Rise, TRON, Mine Train, Frozen and Test Track.

If Rise can only accommodate about 15,000-18,000 guests in a 12-hour operating day, what's the point of drawing 30-35k into the park? Isn't that the root of most people's frustration?

That was Disney's playbook in 2019. Today, they claim to want a different / better experience for guests. Unlike DL, WDW actually has the space to do something different. Albeit with a mountain of logistical hurdles.

 

[RivShore]

To be clear, my perspective on a 5th gate is that *IF* Disney is sincere in its desire to thin out crowds and improve the overall experience, I propose they may be able to accomplish that much more effectively by building a new park with 6-8 attractions rather than adding 2 attractions to each of the existing parks in the near term. It's not about building another destination and extending current stays, it's about creating more total capacity with a new destination.

There are plenty of holes to poke in that. By no means are my thoughts to be considered a rumor. There is no insider information here. My primary point is that as someone who has followed the parks closely for 20+ years, the idea of a 5th gate seems to jive more with Disney's philosophies today than at any other time in recent memory.

Supposedly WDW was on the verge of creating some boutique experience (Night Kingdom?) back around 2008 before the housing crisis & recession. The Reedy Creek long term plan did make accommodations for 2 additional parks, if memory serves. (Not that anyone expected them to break ground in the near future.)

MK, EP and HS all have little pockets where they could expand. But in doing so, you're adding more guests to Main Street and the World Showcase walkways. You're bringing more people into those parks who want to ride Rise, TRON, Mine Train, Frozen and Test Track.

If Rise can only accommodate about 15,000-18,000 guests in a 12-hour operating day, what's the point of drawing 30-35k into the park? Isn't that the root of most people's frustration?

That was Disney's playbook in 2019. Today, they claim to want a different / better experience for guests. Unlike DL, WDW actually has the space to do something different. Albeit with a mountain of logistical hurdles.

These are my thoughts too, also as a long time observer of the company.

 

[WeIcomeHome]

I agree that a fifth gate could have a decent impact on crowd levels at the other parks but when Disney's main focus is on profits I don't think a 5th gate makes any sense.

By adding one or two must visit attractions to each park, that may be the difference of a half day at a park or a full day with multiple meals on property.

 

[Cfabar1]

Could they do a 5th gate? Sure. I don’t see it anytime soon, and I don’t see it being Villains theme.

The DinoLand retirement is necessary, and I’m fairly confident Countdown to Extinction will be a casualty from that. The whole area feels like a retread of a portion of the Disney’s America area to me.

 

[Liljo22]

Iger's claim that they plan to spend $17 Billion over the next decade is interesting. That is a lot to spend over 10 years on just hotels and park expansions. In comparison, Epic Universe is expected to cost around $1 Billion.

 

[fatmanatee]

Iger's claim that they plan to spend $17 Billion over the next decade is interesting. That is a lot to spend over 10 years on just hotels and park expansions. In comparison, Epic Universe is expected to cost around $1 Billion.

Worth noting that Galaxy’s Edge cost over a billion for each park, Guardians cost 500 mil. I give Uni a lot of credit if they can pull off an entire park for a billion.

 

[BrianL]

Worth noting that Galaxy’s Edge cost over a billion for each park, Guardians cost 500 mil. I give Uni a lot of credit if they can pull off an entire park for a billion.

They can 'cuz it's all screens!

 

[tjkraz]

Iger's claim that they plan to spend $17 Billion over the next decade is interesting. That is a lot to spend over 10 years on just hotels and park expansions. In comparison, Epic Universe is expected to cost around $1 Billion.

Plus Iger's claim of adding 13,000 jobs.

Also consider that Iger is (supposedly) only on the job for another 20 months. Difficult for him to speak to 10 year plans...unless something is announced in those 20 months which is virtually impossible for his successor to roll-back. (Again, no insider info here. But have to admit, Disney seems to be implying a lot of good things to come for theme park fans. The question is whether they follow through.)

Epic universe can't be that low, can it? New Fantasyland was over $1 billion and Carsland at DCA was somewhere north of $700M. And those were a decade ago.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Plus Iger's claim of adding 13,000 jobs.

Also consider that Iger is (supposedly) only on the job for another 20 months. Difficult for him to speak to 10 year plans...unless something is announced in those 20 months which is virtually impossible for his successor to roll-back. (Again, no insider info here. But have to admit, Disney seems to be implying a lot of good things to come for theme park fans. The question is whether they follow through.)

Epic universe can't be that low, can it? New Fantasyland was over $1 billion and Carsland at DCA was somewhere north of $700M. And those were a decade ago.

Actually I read that Epic Universe price tag is around $7 billion.

 

[Liljo22]

I thought that was low also but the Orlando Business Journal from this February said estimated to be $1 Billion+.

 

[BrianL]

I thought that was low also but the Orlando Business Journal from this February said estimated to be $1 Billion+.

The "+" is a another $6B. Just a little creative bookkeeping, right?