What do you think the impact of POLY2 and Cabins at Fort Wilderness

[tom1944]

will be on the resale value of other DVC resorts. Specifically, those in the MK area but if you feel it might impact other resorts feel free to say.

Would you anticipate a drag on prices? If so, how significant.

 

[Sandisw]

It’s hard to say because I think the price of them is already pretty reasonable.

I am not expecting them to reduce to much because the past year or so has seen them already taking the hit.

But, I could see BLT settling into the $120s to $130s…VGF into the $150s, and PVB into the $130s to $140s.

Pricing, though is going to be the biggest factor. I could see FW cabins going below $200 but not sure Poly tower will.

 

[tom1944]

I am new at this, so I have not seen the impact new resorts have had in the past.

As soon as I saw that the POLY 1 bedrooms have the second bathroom it crossed my mind that it might impact BLT. If it is a new association and gets an expiration date of January 2075 those extra 15 years is added pressure on BLT.

Between the Cabins and POLY2 I believe there are over 500 new rooms available for the MK area.

I could see the most pressure on BRV and BLT prices with POLY1 after that.

None of that overrides the impact a good or bad economy would have on prices, but options will impact resorts that are not considered as desirable.

 

[JackosinDIS]

I think it will have more of an impact later down the line, perhaps from 2040 onwards once the MK resorts get in to the last 20 years of their contracts.

Whereas BCV and BWV have retained value (for now) I don’t think the MK resorts will, as there will be an alternative resale to purchase at Poly2, with a much longer shelf life. There is no such alternative for the Epcot 2042 resorts.

For now however, I don’t see Poly2, whether it’s a new association or not, having much of an impact on the other MK area resorts…

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Macro economic factors will always have the largest impact in my opinion. Then you throw in the extra rooms, changing tastes, expiration dates always ticking closer...

In other words who knows! But it'll be interesting to see if there's a precipitous rise in resale prices when the economy improves like there has been traditionally or if the resale market has officially been muted by DVDs concerted efforts to drive people to buy direct.

 

[tom1944]

Where I see the potential drag is that BLT owners will decide to sell in order to purchase at POLY2 now that there are 1 and 2 bedrooms.

The other drag might be potential BLT purchasers deciding to buy Poly2 direct for the unrestricted additional 15 years.

I think Sandi is correct that it will not be a fire sale but more likely $120-130 price range.

 

[tom1944]

Macro economic factors will always have the largest impact in my opinion. Then you throw in the extra rooms, changing tastes, expiration dates always ticking closer...

In other words who knows! But it'll be interesting to see if there's a precipitous rise in resale prices when the economy improves like there has been traditionally or if the resale market has officially been muted by DVDs concerted efforts to drive people to buy direct.

Do you mean inflation and interest rates? Because the economy does not have a lot to improve on unemployment and wage growth.

I think interest rates are firm for at least a year.

And yes, macro factors have the greatest impact.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Do you mean inflation and interest rates? Because the economy does not have a lot to improve on unemployment and wage growth.

I think interest rates are firm for at least a year.

And yes, macro factors have the greatest impact.

Yes correct. I'd like to see how long this inflationary environment lasts. Also in this day and age geopolitical issues seem to pop up out of nowhere and exert a major toll. The debt to savings ratio is not good. Defaults on mortgages, while nothing like the leadup to 08, are not encouraging. Just so many moving parts to think how any of that would affect such a niche luxury market like DVC resale. So much will also be influenced by DVD either continuing their attempts to ruin the resale market or if they ease up and reverse course realizing a healthy resale market helps the brand in the long run. I will say this I wouldn't mind a little bigger of a dip in the market to pick up a full point position (as I'm already realizing what I have is not sufficient) and then seeing contracts appreciate again like it has done historically. I view DVC resale very much like I do the stock market at this point.

 

[DanCali]

In theory - yes, more supply would reduce prices. But not with resale restrictions. I think the main dynamics going forward will play around restricted/unrestricted resorts.

Outside of RIV you have an exclusive list of resorts in the WDW area that are unique in the sense that buying them resale keeps most of their functionality. New resorts (and recycled post-2042 resorts) will likely not have that. And because of those severe resale restrictions, I think every new restricted resort that comes out makes the O14 more valuable as a group. Every O14 resort that expires makes the remaining O14 more valuable as well. Until this ends in the 2060s, you will likely end up with two very different resale product categories - with one being much more desired and valuable than the other (on average).

It's somewhat similar to the reasoning why people pay so much ($ per year left on contract) for BWV and BCV - you can't get that EPCOT walking access any other way. Scarcity also explains VGC resale prices. Similarly, after 2042 you will have just AKV, BLT, CCR, VGF, OKWe, PVB, SSR (and maybe AUL as SAP to some extent, depending on how high the dues go relative to others) as the only resorts that let you play in the ecosystem when you buy them resale. There will be a substantial premium to that vs the 10+ other resorts where you will not be able to do that.

 

[got4boys]

I do not see that there will be a drop at BLT or GFV. It will all depend on the points charts. Right now there is no points chart for the 1 or 2 bedroom at Poly. BLT (depending on the view) is one of the lowest points on one on the monorail loop. Also there is supposed to be hard refresh coming up on BLT. Once the refresh is done and if it is done correctly, demand will go up. Usually after a refresh, the pricing goes up - look at Old Key West and Saratoga Springs.

Location, location, location. Currently there are only two DVC resorts that you can walk to the Magic Kingdom.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

Wonder what percent of direct sales are new to DVC and what percent are existing owners over the years. Same question regarding resale. How has that correlated to price, any educated guesses? Birth rate is way down and kids are a huge driver for DVC first timers. It seems like satisfaction of overall DVC members is at a low. And competition seems stiffer than ever as Universal grows.

 

[Sandisw]

Where I see the potential drag is that BLT owners will decide to sell in order to purchase at POLY2 now that there are 1 and 2 bedrooms.

The other drag might be potential BLT purchasers deciding to buy Poly2 direct for the unrestricted additional 15 years.

I think Sandi is correct that it will not be a fire sale but more likely $120-130 price range.

I would think that many BLT owners would have unrestricted points.

And, the point charts at BLT are pretty decent so not sure how many sellers there will be to flood the market, at least not right away.

And, if you have BLT. owners who have bought since restrictions they would need to sell at what would most likely be a loss right now.

So, I just can’t see the MK area resorts ever going that low.

 

[maui22]

Agree with others on macro economics being the driving factor in pricing. Seeing more signs of cracks being caused by inflation, high interest rates, etc.

2022 revenge travel drove up resale prices and hotel side could fill rooms with small discounts.

2023 revenge travel ended ended plus people traveled to Europe, Disney hotel discounts increased, ROFR slowed dramatically, and resale prices dropped.

 

[DVCsloth]

I do not see that there will be a drop at BLT or GFV. It will all depend on the points charts. Right now there is no points chart for the 1 or 2 bedroom at Poly. BLT (depending on the view) is one of the lowest points on one on the monorail loop. Also there is supposed to be hard refresh coming up on BLT. Once the refresh is done and if it is done correctly, demand will go up. Usually after a refresh, the pricing goes up - look at Old Key West and Saratoga Springs.

Location, location, location. Currently there are only two DVC resorts that you can walk to the Magic Kingdom.

Even more important to us is being able to walk back at the end of the night.

 

[Genie+]

It’s hard to say because I think the price of them is already pretty reasonable.

I am not expecting them to reduce to much because the past year or so has seen them already taking the hit.

But, I could see BLT settling into the $120s to $130s…VGF into the $150s, and PVB into the $130s to $140s.

Pricing, though is going to be the biggest factor. I could see FW cabins going below $200 but not sure Poly tower will.

These prices are what I’d expect too.

Any lower and more buyers would step in for BLT at $110s, Poly $120s or VGF under $140.

Compared to summer 2020 rofr thread, the bolded is near where pandemic resale dip landed with a few lower outliers, like PVB had 2 around $120, BLT one $100 and three $120s, VGF had one $140 and a few mid-$140s.

The ‘bottom’ didn’t go on for long though. Now there’s a few years less on contract, somewhat offset by inflation. I still feel like summer 2020 is thee lowest we’ll see for the 3 monorail resales.

 

[RichVIII]

I would think that many BLT owners would have unrestricted points.

And, the point charts at BLT are pretty decent so not sure how many sellers there will be to flood the market, at least not right away.

And, if you have BLT. owners who have bought since restrictions they would need to sell at what would most likely be a loss right now.

So, I just can’t see the MK area resorts ever going that low.

100% agree with this. While we love Poly, we will hope to use our unrestricted points at Poly 2. I am sure the the points charts are going to painful. Even when we stay not at Poly 1 - it is crazy to me how many points more each room we book.

 

[Titanium]

Besides the impact of converting the cabins to DVC I think it shows that Fort Wilderness will also be around for many more years.