The entire resorts points are held within each year. They are divided up into various UY's but they equal what the requirements are to book the resort. Actually, with the lock-off premium they are less than what is required to book the entire resort. It would be quite the puzzle but it cannot be too many points - that's impossible if they have not oversold the resorts.
I used to think the same as Dean, but you and Crvetter made me think about it and I now think you're right.
To explain it, let's suppose that from now on banking and borrowing is suspended completely and every owner will try to book a reservation as early as possible in their UY. So owners of a February UY will all try to book in February and if they don't succeed they'll book in March and so on. To make the example simplier, let's suppose that point distrubution among the 8 UY is higher in the earliest months.
Since more points have been sold for February than those available to book the resorts for that month, there will be a spill over of Feb. owners who will have to book in March. Similarly, only some of the March owners will be able to book in March, some will have to book in April. The spill over will continue until May, there is no May contract, so this month will soak some/most of the spillover. And so on, until December, in this month there will still be not enough room for December owners so they'll have to use their points in January, but by the end of January every owner will have booked a room. It must be this way, because of the one-to-one Florida law, there must be enough rooms from February to January to accommodate all owners.
Banking and borrowing complicates things, because while there are enough rooms to allow all 2041 points to be used, there might be some points banked from 2040 that haven't been used. And also, members won't use their points as soon as possible, they might try to keep them and book in the fall because it's their favorite time of the year. So there might be some fierce competition for the last fall and some owners might end up without a room and wasting their points, I really cannot see this as a big issue because:
- people will know there is this risk and they'll actually try to use their points as soon as possible, leaving space for the risk takers. This is what I'd do: if allowed, I'll try to borrow my 2041 points and use them as soon as possible
- the lockoff premium removes quite a few points from the system (Disney might make a bit less money from breakage in the last couple of years, but who cares?)
- owners will still be able to use their points at other resorts. For the 2042 resorts, SSR will be there to soak points if owners cannot book their favorite resort. More of a problem for SSR and OKW resale owners going forward
What confused me was thinking about the December UY owners (like me). We usually have 12 months to use our points, while in 2014 we'll have only 2. But this doesn't mean there aren't enough rooms to accommodate our points, theoretically, until January there are enough rooms to accommodate everyone (unless everyone bank their points)