Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[heynowirv]

Sleep Around Points

Oh you sluts...... LOL

 

[heynowirv]

I don't think this is really correct. People losing their jobs and needing to sell their contracts will not change if the parks reopen or announce a reopening. This does not bring their income back. I honestly think this is DVCRESALEMARKET's way of trying to spin the market and keep prices high.

I wholeheartedly agree with you on that.Every other contract under 100 points they list as "Only Full Price Accepted".That's just how they roll.

 

[CarolMN]

I was literally just posting the same thing. I would expect the prices to go down and inventory to go up. Let's also remember a lot of those who are unemployed are still getting a $600 stimulus increase. When that goes away things will most likely change.

Another perspective:

A WHOLE LOT of us owners have fully paid contracts and have owned for a long time. We don't need to sell and can easily afford to let contract sit waiting for an offer we're willing to accept. Those of us who wanted out probably already sold to cash in on the higher prices.

IMO, only those who probably shouldn't have purchased (especially if they financed) will HAVE to sell, and it's a good bet that most of those are fairly recent purchases. Those folks probably can't afford to bring money to the table, either and will want a higher price than many here are willing to pay.

I'm not all that sure that prices are going to drop significantly anytime soon. JMHO. YMMV.

 

[linzjane88]

We are fortunate to not have our jobs impacted at this time (although both mine and DH's employers are announcing cost cutting measures like hiring freezes, halting 401k match, and no annual bonuses). However, if we suddenly had two months with us being out of work that would change our discretionary spending drastically. We would be calling off vacations for the foreseeable future and considering selling things we don't need (DVC!). I don't know much about stocks and the economy but its hard for me to fathom how this wouldn't have a longer impact on DVC markets until people get caught back up.

My husbands theory is that the people that are out of work (lower wage retail, restaurant, etc) are not necessarily the ones that had loads of discretionary spending available to use on Disney trips before this happened and maybe there won't be as much impact. Who knows!

 

[Kenito]

Wow. How many points was it?

320

 

[glamdring269]

Another perspective:

A WHOLE LOT of us owners have fully paid contracts and have owned for a long time. We don't need to sell and can easily afford to let contract sit waiting for an offer we're willing to accept. Those of us who wanted out probably already sold to cash in on the higher prices.

IMO, only those who probably shouldn't have purchased (especially if they financed) will HAVE to sell, and it's a good bet that most of those are fairly recent purchases. Those folks probably can't afford to bring money to the table, either and will want a higher price than many here are willing to pay.

I'm not all that sure that prices are going to drop significantly anytime soon. JMHO. YMMV.

One other perspective, and I think you actually commented on my thread about this. We had a small contract at a 2042 resort and were likely not going until fall of 21 at earliest, more likely 22. I decided to go ahead and bail due to potential short-term risk, coupled with the fact that we know 2042 resorts are eventually going to have to drop in price. If you're in a position to move out now with no risk to future travel plans, and then wait and see on the market, it's likely not a terrible play.

Timing the market is never really doable but seems like this is as decent a time to gamble as any on trading out of a 2042 resort if you're not attached to it.

 

[Kenito]

Now on to the last hurdle. I'll hope for you and I to both pass ROFR now. That's a great deal on BLT. I was firmly in the "DISNEY WON'T TAKE ANYTHING RIGHT NOW" camp until I had a signed contract now I am on pins and needles.

I hope so too! I wasn’t surprised Disney took my $129 BLT in March. I think anything below $130 was taken (even though some double point contracts in the mid-130’s passed). So we’ll see. I want this to be my last purchase....until Anahiem!

 

[jamier2]

Woohoo!! Our third offer was accepted! We have yet to sign and send to ROFR but the sellers said they are good with it. Makes me wish we had offered less, but honestly we are happy with the deal we got. They were asking 146.

PVB 150 points at 136 per. April UY, has 205 points on 2020 and 150 from then on.

 

[AKNOTTS66]

Woohoo!! Our third offer was accepted! We have yet to sign and send to ROFR but the sellers said they are good with it. Makes me wish we had offered less, but honestly we are happy with the deal we got.

PVB 150 points at 136 per.

how many points are available on this contract? did it have 2019 or 2020 points?

 

[jamier2]

how many points are available on this contract? did it have 2019 or 2020 points?

It has 150 2020 points and 55 banked points from 2019. April use year.

 

[AKNOTTS66]

It has 150 2020 points and 55 banked points from 2019. April use year.

Thats a good price. We were looking at one that was missing 70% of its 2020 points.

 

[jamier2]

We are pretty happy with it. The spread of prices - asking at least - was surprising to me.

I made a spreadsheet to compare contracts. I put in the price and points and then charted the next three years of points and used the total price divided by those years to get what I hope was a better idea of the true value. Some contracts priced higher actually ended up costing less per point - for the first three years at least - than some that were cheaper but stripped of points. It made more of a difference than I expected. For instance, the one we got, if you divide the total price of $20,400 by the 505 points we have in the first 3 years, it ends up being right at $40 per point. I saw one sell for $120 per point for 275 point contract that ended up costing $59 per point for the first 3 years.

Obviously if this is spread out over more years the difference would be much less, but it made me feel better about which one we picked.

 

[glamdring269]

How do you typically weigh contracts based on available points? Assuming a contract on average is as follows then how do you weigh the subsequent scenarios?

$150 per point
19/20/21
100/100/100
*Assume $150 per point is reasonably assumed to be the optimal buyer/seller agreement.

Option 1: 0/100/100
Option 2: 0/0/100
Option 3: 0/0/0

How much would you devalue from $150 per point in each of the different scenarios?

For me... directionally:
Option 1: -$10 (assuming I could rent points that aren't there and buyer is paying dues)
Option 2: -$20 (assuming same as Option 1)
Option 3: -$37 (same as option 2 but assuming I would have to pick up '21 dues)

Too harsh?

 

[RhodyKP]

My husbands theory is that the people that are out of work (lower wage retail, restaurant, etc) are not necessarily the ones that had loads of discretionary spending available to use on Disney trips before this happened and maybe there won't be as much impact. Who knows!

I am far from an economist (I'm a lawyer which means I pretend to know everything instead of actually knowing anything), but something happened over the weekend that made me a little nervous - my neighborhood Starbucks announced it would not be reopening after the quarantine. Other than meaning I have to go further out of my way for "meh" coffee I pay too much for, it made me wonder if there will indeed be long-term economic effects of Covid-19 even if things soon start opening up significantly. I don't know if it would have closed regardless, but it's certainly concerning.

 

[jamier2]

How do you typically weigh contracts based on available points? Assuming a contract on average is as follows then how do you weigh the subsequent scenarios?

$150 per point
19/20/21
100/100/100
*Assume $150 per point is reasonably assumed to be the optimal buyer/seller agreement.

Option 1: 0/100/100
Option 2: 0/0/100
Option 3: 0/0/0

How much would you devalue from $150 per point in each of the different scenarios?

For me... directionally:
Option 1: -$10 (assuming I could rent points that aren't there and buyer is paying dues)
Option 2: -$20 (assuming same as Option 1)
Option 3: -$37 (same as option 2 but assuming I would have to pick up '21 dues)

Too harsh?

On mine it's pretty simple. I take the total price (not counting closing and such, that's not too much and it's pretty standard anyway and it makes my spreadsheet much simpler) and divide by the points available over the span of years. I used 3 years for mine but you can do it however you like.

For this one it is 15,000 contract. Option A value is $75 per point, B is 150 per, C I can't divide by 0.

I also considered the price I would have to spend to rent the points to get rough idea if the price was worth it. In my searches they rarely dropped the point price anywhere near what I would have to spend to rent them from another member.

I'll admit my numbers are probably further off than yours - especially considering that there are 46 years left on the contracts I looked at. As the length increases the long term differences really become much less significant. I just used this as a quick and dirty way to compare contracts quickly.

 

[Hopfather28]

We are pretty happy with it. The spread of prices - asking at least - was surprising to me.

I made a spreadsheet to compare contracts. I put in the price and points and then charted the next three years of points and used the total price divided by those years to get what I hope was a better idea of the true value. Some contracts priced higher actually ended up costing less per point - for the first three years at least - than some that were cheaper but stripped of points. It made more of a difference than I expected. For instance, the one we got, if you divide the total price of $20,400 by the 505 points we have in the first 3 years, it ends up being right at $40 per point. I saw one sell for $120 per point for 275 point contract that ended up costing $59 per point for the first 3 years.

Obviously if this is spread out over more years the difference would be much less, but it made me feel better about which one we picked.

Did they pay 2020 MF?

 

[jamier2]

Did they pay 2020 MF?

No we are paying 2020 MF, but since we are using them I didn't mind. They came off the price by 10 per point and judging by them accepting in less than an hour I probably should have offered less. After the way the first two offers went on contracts, I can start to see how some people just decide to buy direct and be done almost instantly.

 

[becauseimnew]

We are fortunate to not have our jobs impacted at this time (although both mine and DH's employers are announcing cost cutting measures like hiring freezes, halting 401k match, and no annual bonuses). However, if we suddenly had two months with us being out of work that would change our discretionary spending drastically. We would be calling off vacations for the foreseeable future and considering selling things we don't need (DVC!). I don't know much about stocks and the economy but its hard for me to fathom how this wouldn't have a longer impact on DVC markets until people get caught back up.

My husbands theory is that the people that are out of work (lower wage retail, restaurant, etc) are not necessarily the ones that had loads of discretionary spending available to use on Disney trips before this happened and maybe there won't be as much impact. Who knows!

I think for right now you are correct, there lots of employers that are using the PP loans and once those run out is when we'll see a drastic change for those of us that haven't been affected. I'm not sure where you are but here medical facilities have cut back hours.

 

[Hopfather28]

How do you typically weigh contracts based on available points? Assuming a contract on average is as follows then how do you weigh the subsequent scenarios?

$150 per point
19/20/21
100/100/100
*Assume $150 per point is reasonably assumed to be the optimal buyer/seller agreement.

Option 1: 0/100/100
Option 2: 0/0/100
Option 3: 0/0/0

How much would you devalue from $150 per point in each of the different scenarios?

For me... directionally:
Option 1: -$10 (assuming I could rent points that aren't there and buyer is paying dues)
Option 2: -$20 (assuming same as Option 1)
Option 3: -$37 (same as option 2 but assuming I would have to pick up '21 dues)

Too harsh?

The way I valued my offer was to look at average sale price of similar contracts. Right now is not an "average" point in time so I did some discounting based on current trends. So for me I came out to $135pp. I figure rental of points gets 15 bucks so subtract MF of 7 and I said okay so let's discount it 8 for a stripped contract that I had no intention of using in 2020 anyhow. That got me to $127. I figured since that was actually my max I'd subtract the full 15 to get to 120pp and that is how I valued mine.

 

[glamdring269]

The way I valued my offer was to look at average sale price of similar contracts. Right now is not an "average" point in time so I did some discounting based on current trends. So for me I came out to $135pp. I figure rental of points gets 15 bucks so subtract MF of 7 and I said okay so let's discount it 8 for a stripped contract that I had no intention of using in 2020 anyhow. That got me to $127. I figured since that was actually my max I'd subtract the full 15 to get to 120pp and that is how I valued mine.

This is similar to how I discounted but I assumed $17 for rental so directionally similar.