Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[MICKIMINI]

We bought with the pre-opening incentives so $188/point and then $3250 off for 200 points.

No, we didn’t get to stay there yet; we were supposed to be there right now

We were to arrive at the Poly tomorrow - I feel your pain!

 

[MICKIMINI]

As someone who is 3.5 weeks into a contract with Fidelity, they just updated the listing on their site from Available to Sale Pending. I would skeptical of their Available listings.

Not surprising as you have to "memorize" the listing page to see if it changes every day, if you are stalking a particular resort, otherwise you are wasting your time!

 

[heynowirv]

Small contracts are a different animal. But even those have been dropping also. If you can get it in the $145-$160 I'd consider it a win.

yeah I offered 140 thinking We'd settle somewhere around 150 ,found it hard to believe they got a full offer after being on market for 3 weeks ,right after I made my bid,,, whatever

 

[AKNOTTS66]

yeah I offered 140 thinking We'd settle somewhere around 150 ,found it hard to believe they got a full offer after being on market for 3 weeks ,right after I made my bid,,, whatever

Small contracts are less common so when buyers find them sometimes u just have to jump at it.

 

[heynowirv]

Small contracts are less common so when buyers find them sometimes u just have to jump at it.

I know that, I also know I'm not paying 172 a point.

 

[jotunheim]

I have thought about this a lot, as in probably 3 or 4 years we think we'd want to buy DVC on the west coast.

I think that once DHV (?) makes it all the way to the resale market, it would have to adversely impact resale prices for VGC at least a little, as DHV will almost certainly sell at a lower new and resale price vs Grand Californian (as Grand Californian is their premier hotel).

One consideration that will probably help keep VGC prices higher though is that any contract purchased resale will likely only be good at one or the other, even at 7 months. So to a west coast buyer, VGC will continue to live in it's own little bubble.

Good points. I would agree that there might be a very small impact by the new villas opening at DL, but I think there are a couple of factors that would keep the pricing stable at minimum.

As far as I am aware, DVD has never dropped pricing on any direct points. Through RORF, they tend to keep pricing at or around 2/3 of whatever they are charging at the time. This dropped a bit below this threshold last fall and the buy backs started to increase, with resale pricing rebounding a month or two later. As long as this continues to be the case, I don't see any reason for any drop in pricing over 5% or so, and may increase as direct pricing goes up.

The other huge plus is the direct access to DCA that will likely never be replicated at another DVC property. This may or may not be important to some buyers, but it is really nice to have your room so close to the park for breaks during the day.

 

[gtfpjames]

DVC Resale Market has seen their inventory drop for Poly by about 75% since the beginning of April. Same with AKV - they've just been wiped out. TSS has a ton of AKV and Fidelity like you said has a ton of Poly. Darned if I know.

Looking for another AKV with August use year. What is TSS? Thanks!

 

[CastAStone]

Looking for another AKV with August use year. What is TSS? Thanks!

The Timeshare Store. I mistyped; should’ve been TTS. Also known as DVC store. Click the banner at the top of the page!

 

[gtfpjames]

The Timeshare Store. I mistyped; should’ve been TTS. Also known as DVC store. Click the banner at the top of the page!

Thank you I appreciate it!!

 

[pirate33]

I stumbled across an interesting podcast with an interview with an agent from one of the larger brokers. I was surprised by some of the comments. Key points from this person’s perspective:
—Their inventory overall decreased in April
—More buyers than sellers
—Not seeing distressed sellers
—Minor price drops overall except Poly and VGF
—VGC inventory is very small so no effect on prices

Meanwhile, a $149 pp larger VGF contract posted on this company’s website today (or yesterday, not sure). Many contracts for that property remain listed at prices that are totally out of whack with the market.

I’m not sure if the link will post but I’ve put it below. Worth listening to and interested in reactions of others here.

https://***********.com/090-april-2020-dvc-resale-market-update-and-analysis/

 

[pirate33]

Correction to my last post:
—the significant price drops were AKV and VGF (according to the speaker)
—some resorts went up slightly (BLT and BRV)

 

[bookwormde]

5/15 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140% of average

 

[superden]

The other huge plus is the direct access to DCA that will likely never be replicated at another DVC property. This may or may not be important to some buyers, but it is really nice to have your room so close to the park for breaks during the day.

100% agree with that direct access and I think that is a huge selling point. I think regardless, both DVCs will be in high demand and my guess is the price would probably more or less mirror each other when DLT sells out.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I stumbled across an interesting podcast with an interview with an agent from one of the larger brokers. I was surprised by some of the comments. Key points from this person’s perspective:
—Their inventory overall decreased in April
—More buyers than sellers
—Not seeing distressed sellers
—Minor price drops overall except Poly and VGF
—VGC inventory is very small so no effect on prices

Meanwhile, a $149 pp larger VGF contract posted on this company’s website today (or yesterday, not sure). Many contracts for that property remain listed at prices that are totally out of whack with the market.

I’m not sure if the link will post but I’ve put it below. Worth listening to and interested in reactions of others here.

https://***********.com/090-april-2020-dvc-resale-market-update-and-analysis/

I listened to this podcast last week. I thought it was a lot of spin to be honest, although this is a podcast that I enjoy typically. They completely lost me when they suggested prices might go up in the near future. Just because that broker has low inventory does not mean inventory is low at other brokers. But I agree that sellers are not distressed right now, at least most of them don't seem to be. It's really too early in this economic crisis for that to be the case.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I stumbled across an interesting podcast with an interview with an agent from one of the larger brokers. I was surprised by some of the comments. Key points from this person’s perspective:
—Their inventory overall decreased in April
—More buyers than sellers
—Not seeing distressed sellers
—Minor price drops overall except Poly and VGF
—VGC inventory is very small so no effect on prices

Meanwhile, a $149 pp larger VGF contract posted on this company’s website today (or yesterday, not sure). Many contracts for that property remain listed at prices that are totally out of whack with the market.

I’m not sure if the link will post but I’ve put it below. Worth listening to and interested in reactions of others here.

https://***********.com/090-april-2020-dvc-resale-market-update-and-analysis/

Thanks for posting the link. I listed to the entire podcast. Disclosure: I have bought and sold multiple times. I have used this brokerage and they were 100% professional. I always held them in high regard.

Now, regarding the podcast - it sounded scripted to me first of all and about half way through turned into a lecture about what buyers should expect to offer. 5% off is what these broker's recommend. Well, off what? If a seasoned DVC buyer/seller (me - 25 years worth) determines the asking price is 20% too high I am being told NOT to make what I consider a reasonable offer? Sounds like it. Being told not to waste their time making an offer is not in the sellers best interest. The seller is paying 8.5% for the brokers to relay offers, not determine final price. Sorry, but the market determines price not the broker. I can almost hear the snickering as I make my offer...! So this is how these brokers really feel about buyers? Wow.

 

[Vkothari916]

Thanks for posting the link. I listed to the entire podcast. Disclosure: I have bought and sold multiple times. I have used this brokerage and they were 100% professional. I always held them in high regard.

Now, regarding the podcast - it sounded scripted to me first of all and about half way through turned into a lecture about what buyers should expect to offer. 5% off is what these broker's recommend. Well, off what? If a seasoned DVC buyer/seller (me - 25 years worth) determines the asking price is 20% too high I am being told NOT to make what I consider a reasonable offer? Sounds like it. Being told not to waste their time making an offer is not in the sellers best interest. The seller is paying 8.5% for the brokers to relay offers, not determine final price. Sorry, but the market determines price not the broker. I can almost hear the snickering as I make my offer...! So this is how these brokers really feel about buyers? Wow.

I have offered 13% less than asking and gotten accepted despite my broker saying offer was too low. they are legally requires to present your offer to seller. Offer whatever you think is a fair price.

 

[pirate33]

Sorry, but the market determines price not the broker.

I agree overall with these sentiments, and you voiced some thoughts I couldn’t quite put my finger on. It does seem candidly based on some of the comments in this podcast plus similar public comments by another brokerage that there is an effort by the brokers to boost or support prices artificially.

And I have also worked with this company in the past and was pleased with their service. We had some kind of wrinkle in the contract I bought through them (points represented by the seller were a little off I think), and they worked through that issue in a way I thought was very fair and professional.

 

[superden]

I listened to this podcast last week. I thought it was a lot of spin to be honest, although this is a podcast that I enjoy typically. They completely lost me when they suggested prices might go up in the near future. Just because that broker has low inventory does not mean inventory is low at other brokers. But I agree that sellers are not distressed right now, at least most of them don't seem to be. It's really too early in this economic crisis for that to be the case.

I listen to this podcast as well. Generally I really appreciate the podcast and enjoy listening to the different stories and experiences that are shared. I can’t fault the host since his podcast is sponsored by the broker and I can’t fault the broker for trying to not devalue the product they are trying to sell.

With that being said, I definitely felt that this was not reflective of the current market uncertainty and this was a very bullish and optimistic viewpoint that would of course be to the benefit of the broker. The reality is that no one knows the future of the overall economy, and they sounded surprisingly certain in a very uncertain time.

My second thought essentially was if the stock market presents a much larger discount than DVC, then I will be happy to invest in the market until it recovers and buy into DVC at that time later on.

 

[Vkothari916]

I listen to this podcast as well. Generally I really appreciate the podcast and enjoy listening to the different stories and experiences that are shared. I can’t fault the host since his podcast is sponsored by the broker and I can’t fault the broker for trying to not devalue the product they are trying to sell.

With that being said, I definitely felt that this was not reflective of the current market uncertainty and this was a very bullish and optimistic viewpoint that would of course be to the benefit of the broker. The reality is that no one knows the future of the overall economy, and they sounded surprisingly certain in a very uncertain time.

My second thought essentially was if the stock market presents a much larger discount than DVC, then I will be happy to invest in the market until it recovers and buy into DVC at that time later on.

Where are these podcasts? I would also like to listen.

 

[macman123]

Where are these podcasts? I would also like to listen.

https://***********.com/090-april-2020-dvc-resale-market-update-and-analysis/