Will a Rental Crackdown Reset DVC Resale Prices?

[tx911]

Why do you assume that the walkers have a better chance than you do? If you are both trying to get x day at 7am you both have the exact same chance of landing it.

This is simply untrue. Why on earth would anyone ever choose to walk a reservation if there was no advantage gained?

 

[mgarbowski]

After a couple of minutes, I thought "daaang, I should grab that!" ... Went back in and it was gone. Didn't last 5 min.

I thought it was another stalker that grabbed it or maybe wait-list... but... maybe it was a commercial-rent-o-bot?!!???!

Of course if you had grabbed it when you first saw it then someone else would be screaming about a bot, and not jokingly.
We are the bots.

 

[Matty B13]

Why do you assume that the walkers have a better chance than you do? If you are both trying to get x day at 7am you both have the exact same chance of landing it.

Maybe this is the way to fix the Walking Problem, don't allow people walking to book their room till 7:05 am and not block it off like the system currently does. Then there would be no advantage to it.

 

[lowlight]

Why do you assume that the walkers have a better chance than you do? If you are both trying to get x day at 7am you both have the exact same chance of landing it.

But that isn’t walking. If we are both trying to get 12/5 and you start on an available day in June walking, you have a 100% chance of getting 12/5, and I have a (rooms available/people trying for those rooms) chance of getting it, which is much lower.

 

[Unclelude]

Of course if you had grabbed it when you first saw it then someone else would be screaming about a bot, and not jokingly.
We are the bots.

<PITCHFORK OUT>

Down with the bots!!! Down with the bots!!!

 

[Bearval]

<PITCHFORK OUT>

Down with the bots!!! Down with the bots!!!

"Danger" Will Robinson "Danger"

 

[Brian Noble]

We are the bots.

We are the bots,
We are the bookers.
We are the ones who book cheap studios
so we can rent them.

It is cash we're making.
We're lining our own nests.
It's true we'll keep the rooms all booked
Just you and me.

With apologies to Micheal Jackson and Lionel Richie. And the board, I guess, for bad jokes.

 

[Sandisw]

This is simply untrue. Why on earth would anyone ever choose to walk a reservation if there was no advantage gained?

It isn’t really the walking per se that gets the advantage. It’s the 11 month plus 7 days that does.

Even without walking, every day the number of rooms is never 100% because it depends on how many people are checking out that day.

But, no matter what, day number one for a walker is exaclty the same as everyone else..they get the advantage for the next 7 days,,,but then so do non walkers.

Unless we go day to day, someone checking in sooner than someone else is always going to have a slight advantage for a room.

 

[Unclelude]

We are the bots,
We are the bookers.
We are the ones who book cheap studios
so we can rent them.

It is cash we're making.
We're lining our own nests.
It's true we'll keep the rooms all booked
Just you and me.

With apologies to Micheal Jackson and Lionel Richie. And the board, I guess, for bad jokes.

lol, it took me a min to get the tune ... don't make me get out my haiku pen, nobody wants that... hehe

 

[Sandisw]

But that isn’t walking. If we are both trying to get 12/5 and you start on an available day in June walking, you have a 100% chance of getting 12/5, and I have a (rooms available/people trying for those rooms) chance of getting it, which is much lower.

But if you want to check in on 12/5 and a whole bunch of owners are checking in on 12/1 who are not walkers, they have a 100% chance getting 12/5 over you as well.

Sure, the intent is different but result is the same.

How is that different than an owner who books several rooms or nights for a popular time at 11 months because they haven’t decided on actual dates and don’t drop them until much later?

They are still taking rooms out of service. Now, I agree that if people are violating the rental rules, those should be fixed.

 

[Genie+]

But if you want to check in on 12/5 and a whole bunch of owners are checking in on 12/1 who are not walkers, they have a 100% chance getting 12/5 over you as well.

If they are not walkers how did the whole bunch of owners get 12/1 to begin with?

Without walking there is near 0% chance of getting certain rooms/dates.

Say 75% of the 12/5 rooms are gone to non-walking people with earlier checkins. Then there should be a 25% chance, not 0% chance. To get higher than 0% chance an owner will need to start booking their reservation way sooner than 11 months.

I’m going to leave it to DVC. Maybe at some point they decide this is all getting out of hand and/or infringing on the contracts, and do something like 1 day cool down for pushing forward 11m reservations. Wouldn’t surprise me.

 

[DonMacGregor]

But that isn’t walking. If we are both trying to get 12/5 and you start on an available day in June walking, you have a 100% chance of getting 12/5, and I have a (rooms available/people trying for those rooms) chance of getting it, which is much lower.

Exactly. A walker has literally dozens of chances for 12/5. All they have to do is find any random day prior to that that they can grab a reservation and start walking.

 

[Brian Noble]

it took me a min to get the tune

As soon as I saw just Mark's first line, it came to me immediately. My brain works in strange ways.

 

[DonMacGregor]

But, no matter what, day number one for a walker is exaclty the same as everyone else..they get the advantage for the next 7 days,,,but then so do non walkers.

The point people are trying to make is that walkers can deliberately look for reservations during the absolute slowest travel periods, where competition to get rooms is significantly reduced. Yes, on that specific first day of their walk they are 100% first come first served, but choosing to start the walk at the slowest travel periods of the year, then moving forward to busier travel periods does present an advantage over someone not walking who tries to get those busy periods exactly at 11 months.

As has been said, if there was absolutely no advantage to walking, then no one would be doing it.

 

[tx911]

The point people are trying to make is that walkers can deliberately look for reservations during the absolute slowest travel periods, where competition to get rooms is significantly reduced. Yes, on that specific first day of their walk they are 100% first come first served, but choosing to start the walk at the slowest travel periods of the year, then moving forward to busier travel periods does present an advantage over someone not walking who tries to get those busy periods exactly at 11 months.

As has been said, if there was absolutely no advantage to walking, then no one would be doing it.

Bingo.

The idea that walking confers no advantage is totally without merit. The whole reason walking exists is because is gives a booking advantage that anyone not walking does not have.

 

[Genie+]

Bingo.

The idea that walking confers no advantage is totally without merit. The whole reason walking exists is because is gives a booking advantage that anyone not walking does not have.

And therefore forces the walk otherwise get 0% chance at certain rooms/dates

 

[Sandisw]

If they are not walkers how did the whole bunch of owners get 12/1 to begin with?

Without walking there is near 0% chance of getting certain rooms/dates.

Say 75% of the 12/5 rooms are gone to non-walking people with earlier checkins. Then there should be a 25% chance, not 0% chance. To get higher than 0% chance an owner will need to start booking their reservation way sooner than 11 months.

I’m going to leave it to DVC. Maybe at some point they decide this is all getting out of hand and/or infringing on the contracts, and do something like 1 day cool down for pushing forward 11m reservations. Wouldn’t surprise me.

Because there is no proof that every single person who is getting rooms that have been walked are only walkers

I have gotten rooms plenty of times in early December for hard to get RIV and VGf rooms without waking, but was clear they were walked

Currently have two SV VgF studios and two SV RIV studios right at 11 months for December. Those rooms were also being walked. I just was one of the people who got it.

 

[Sandisw]

The point people are trying to make is that walkers can deliberately look for reservations during the absolute slowest travel periods, where competition to get rooms is significantly reduced. Yes, on that specific first day of their walk they are 100% first come first served, but choosing to start the walk at the slowest travel periods of the year, then moving forward to busier travel periods does present an advantage over someone not walking who tries to get those busy periods exactly at 11 months.

As has been said, if there was absolutely no advantage to walking, then no one would be doing it.

Of course it gives some advantage but so does someone who booked 7 nights at 11 months and knows they only want 4.

Or a large point holder who books and holds rooms until they decide when they want to go.

Also, someone who is checking in earlier than someone else has an advance for future dates

Nothing but day to day booking is ever going to give every owner the exact same advantage.

But, why do they walk? In most cases it’s the point difference. Don’t you think that if BW SV and P/G view were only 1 or 2 point different a night we’d see people still walk those rooms to the degree they do? Nope.

It comes down to supply and demand in 99% of the situations that have people walking.

And, my guess is that those who walk don’t do it for months and months.

Plus, if it’s truly not a demand issue, people who want rooms get them…

Which is why I have said, if the a suers of walking are those owners for renting purposes, stop those and it will be curbed.

 

[DonMacGregor]

But, why do they walk? In most cases it’s the point difference. Don’t you think that if BW SV and P/G view were only 1 or 2 point different a night we’d see people still walk those rooms to the degree they do? Nope.

I walked a BRV 2BR reservation once, from just after Halloween until the second week of December. It had zero to do with points, and everything to do with the reports that any reservations at WL in December are a nightmare to get, even 2BR's because BRV is so small, and I wasn't willing to wait until exactly 11 months to find out I would or wouldn't get a room. Points mean (almost) nothing to me. I can always buy more points, and if they really were the most important factor, I'd still only have my original 150 point SSR contract and I'd be doing the bank/borrow 3-year dance. What I can't do is I can't get them to find more units in BRV, or move Christmas.

 

[Genie+]

Because there is no proof that every single person who is getting rooms that have been walked are only walkers

There is no way for us to know the percentages. DVC likely does. How would one of us go about getting proof what ratios of rooms/dates has been walked?

In the end DVC acts or they do not. I’m guessing it’s not a matter of if, and more a matter of when.