Will DCL go bankrupt?

[PrincessShmoo]

or @PrincessShmoo might remember better than I do on that.

Thanks for the compliment, but that's out of my area of expertise. I just take a lot of pictures and report my experiences. I don't follow the technical aspects of cruising.

 

[travelmomof3]

I was also a June Alaska cruiser and had those same thoughts running through my head. I decided I did not want my $ tied up with DCL right now given there is no certainty with anything right now so I opted for full refund.

 

[cgolf]

I have been monitoring the boards we have sailed and I still have a softspot for Dis.

How we are handling it with our 2021 and 2022 cruises booked is that we are pulling all money paid except the deposits and for the 2021 cruise in particular just pay it off in full or cancel near the PIF date. If worst case happens we are out 1200 in deposits which isn't good but not the end of the world.

I honestly though believe though that if any cruise line were to file for bankruptcy and restructure their debt they would be seriously tank themselves by not honoring money customers had invested in future cruises. If people lose that money the PR would be so bad they would be out of business in short time. What I could see is the money stick around as cruise credits, but people may not be able to get cash back. For say carnival if they folded Princess because of the bad press, they could let customers apply money spent to other lines in the carnival family.

As far as Disney goes, who knows what the future brings. It really depends on what capacity the parks are allowed to reopen and and who knows cruises may have lower limits on passengers reducing revenues for both, still better than the negative money it is now. Movies same thing with theater capacity. Ironically with sports leaning to nobody attending initially the weakest link, ESPN, could be pretty strong early at least.

 

[smmco]

Airlines continue normal operations during the bankruptcy process. Why couldn’t cruise lines?

 

[truck1]

They've paid off the Dream and Fantasy. They did that far ahead of schedule. Some of the other users @truck1 or @PrincessShmoo might remember better than I do on that. They could still have debts on any of the renovations and updates that have occurred over the past few years. The new stage show development and costumes still probably has a few years before break even. Of course any delinquencies in port costs, (fuel, provisions), missed passenger capacities, excursions etc that don't account for pandemics, in contracts. They have also probably have a line of credit open on the construction of the new ships. Finally just operating costs, the website, call center, employees, ships and personnel insurance,. Lots of things would show up on the expense side of the balance sheet. No way of knowing what the revenue side shows.


The general thought is that the booking dates for when the Wish enters service would not be released with the schedule for the rest of the fleet. Reason being is it generates a lot of PR for the release of the ship and chances are a lot of people will want to be on it. Besides it may be later in the construction cycle before they know when they will ACTUALLY sail.

A rough guesstimate, DCL would have about 5 to 6 Billion in debt for the new ships. But this isn't due all at once. They usually make quarterly payments iirc from the Dream class, And they do t have it all at once. Figure about 1.5 billion per ship, starting their debut year, which is not including money already spent for long lead items like the engines, props shafts, certain electrical items etc. and design and testing. This is based off the Dream class which was 1.2 billion each, from Bob Igers lips to my ears with some fudge factor for inflation. all of the work at PC is being paid for by the port, so that's out. About the only other debt at the moment that DCL would be incurring is port fees, fuel, and maint fees. Not counting salaries. Everything else should be paid off. Except as mentioned the shows and entertainment.. And at the end all of this will be written off in taxes next year.

The Dream class ships paid themselves off in about 3 years, as opposed to the 5 they were expected to.

Rumor had it that the Wish initial booking g was to be mid to late summer as a stand alone announcement and most likely theyll follow the tiered bookings like normal. From everything I'm seeing at MW, they are still moving along building ships, though a little slower, but they have time built into the schedule for unexpected issues. Well known in about 2 months how far behind or on schedule they are based on what's in the drydock now.

 

[FigmentSpark]

Saudi Arabia just bought a huge stake of Carnival.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/saudi-arabia-bought-a-huge-stake-in-carnival-51586182943

 

[PrincessShmoo]

Saudi Arabia just bought a huge stake of Carnival.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/saudi-arabia-bought-a-huge-stake-in-carnival-51586182943

Not so "huge" - 8%

 

[TXDCLfan]

Airlines continue normal operations during the bankruptcy process. Why couldn’t cruise lines?

The two major airlines that I have worked for over the last 34 years do NOT continue to operate normally when in bankruptcy

 

[smmco]

The two major airlines that I have worked for over the last 34 years do NOT continue to operate normally when in bankruptcy

Flights still went on? They didn't cease operations. I'm not sure what you mean.

 

[FigmentSpark]

Not so "huge" - 8%

Fair point. But I was figuring that a boost of cash might be what they need. And the Saudis seem to be optimistic about cruising in the future. Maybe they know something?

 

[mab2012]

We were on the WBPC recently and received our refund within 10 days of disembarking. I've heard others like the previous poster who have not received money back from other cruise lines. DCL doesn't play that game. Their customer service and guest relationships are a top priority for them, and they will continue to act as such.

I was also on that cruise, and while our 10% refund came back very quickly (I believe it was even before debarkation), I'm still waiting for the port fees. Not to say that they are deliberately playing games, but apparently not all refunds are issued promptly.

The solvency question is one reason I haven't yet applied my placeholder to an actual sailing. Not the main reason, but it's a consideration. I think bankruptcy is highly unlikely, but it's not impossible, and I'd rather not have thousands tied up in an uncertain industry until things settle down a bit.

 

[CM Dad]

Fair point. But I was figuring that a boost of cash might be what they need. And the Saudis seem to be optimistic about cruising in the future. Maybe they know something?

Carnival would only get any cash if the Saudis got their 8% stake by buying shares that were newly issued by the company. If they just purchase on the open market, Carnival itself would get nothing.

 

[Minniesgal]

I would ta’e te refund and wait to see what happens later this year before deciding 2021 travel plans

 

[bobgobblin15]

All I can say is that we canceled a Carnival cruise six weeks ago and still have not received our deposit back..with that said I would try to get my money back in my pocket FAST...I work for a major airline and we are hurting

We had a cruise booked through carnival as well. I think we canceled about the same time you did and they told us it would take at least 90 days if not longer to get a refund.

 

[Gentry2004]

I took the money, not because I think DCL will go under (I don’t) but because I don’t think I’ll feel comfortable cruising 15 months from now. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong and oh well at least I have my money back.

 

[FigmentSpark]

Carnival would only get any cash if the Saudis got their 8% stake by buying shares that were newly issued by the company. If they just purchase on the open market, Carnival itself would get nothing.

Ah, so it was one of those headlines to make me feel positive about the economy, but really means the Saudis got an awesome deal by buying at rock bottom. Still, they have enough confidence in the cruising future of Carnival to buy that stock.

 

[Jen_K]

I was on the WBPC cruise and have only received one small credit back for port fees. Considering we missed 3 ports, the refund seems small for that segment of the refund. Still waiting on my 10% and the rest of my fees to be refunded. They told me up to 30 days for processing.

 

[OKW Lover]

Carnival would only get any cash if the Saudis got their 8% stake by buying shares that were newly issued by the company. If they just purchase on the open market, Carnival itself would get nothing.

I've read a little on that acquisition and it does sound like Carnival is making a new stock offering.

 

[Travel60]

Disney just closed on two large pieces of land near WDW. They have cash and credit.

 

[Husker Mike]

The reputation of Disney is, quite frankly, their most valuable asset. (Even more valuable than Mickey Mouse.) I believe that your money is as safe with Disney as it would be with your bank because if they were somehow to be unable to refund your money, should the cruise industry capsize, the ill-will generated by that will haunt their amusement parks and video productions.