Will DVC change for the worse like other timeshares?

[ziravan]

DVC is not set up so that there will always be the same difficulty (or ease) to make a reservation. A point system that allows any member to choose any time of year to go is, by design, something that can create availability issues during higher demand times of year. You are aware of some seasons that are harder to get than others and all Disney needs to do in the in the future is create new events or change dates on old ones to effect major shifts in "seasonal" demand. When DVC started Oct was one of the least demanded times of the year. With Food & Wine and additon of month long Halloween events, it eventually became one of the highest demand times. Time beginning the Friday after President's Day was a very low DVC demand time until Disney created the Princess half marathon for that weekend and now that weekend is the highest demand time between mid-Jan and mid-Sep. You could easily have a dramatic shift in DVC demand tomorrow if you woke up to an announcement by Disney that it was changing Food & Wine to February and March.

Disney can also quickly change demand by reallocation of points, which it can do to alleviate over or under demand for rooms or days or times of the year. It cannot raise the total number of points applicable to a resort but it can increase the number needed for some rooms or seasons while doing an equivalent decrease for other rooms or seasons. Five years ago, and over a two year period, it dramatically lowered the number of points needed for weekend nights while raising them for weekdays. Until then, the demand for weekdays greatly exceeded that for weekends year round, e.g., during high demand Oct and during the first two weeks of Dec, it was still fairly easy to find near park resort rooms for the weekend even at 7 months out. With that change, the demand for weekends moved closer to the demand for weekdays, and although for many times of year weekdays are still somewhat higher, demand for a weekend like Columbus Day weekend rose to the point that it is now among the highest demand times of the year. A few years ago, it raised the points needed for treehouses by about 15% year round while lowering those needed for other SSR rooms (all of which needed only minor decreases to equalize total points because they greatly outnumber the treehouses), with the resuolt that treehouses quickly went from being rooms that had become difficult to get at some times even close to 11 months out and nearly impossible at 7 month out to rooms that are now readily available 7 months out, and even beyond, most of the year.

Demand can also change dramatically, particularly at 7 months out, when a new resort is sold. Before SSR, near park resorts at WDW were often easy to get at 7 months out and even well beyond many times of the year. The addition of SSR resulted in its owners having 40% of all DVC points that existed at the time (even today it is almost a quarter of all points for all resorts) with the result that demand at 7 months out for other resorts, particularly BWV, BCV and VWL, increased significantly to the point that anything still available at 7 months out could disappear quickly once the 7 month window opened. AKV has also increased near park resort demand at 7 months out.

Currently the highest demand quarter is late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan and demand for that quarter makes most of the rest of the year seem like a long off season, including for the holidays during that off-season. Though the first two weeks of Dec and Thanksgiving and Christmas were always high demand times, other times in that quarter were less so and demand has increased partly as a result of things mentioned above such as seasonal events and its lower point costs. But it also increased by a change in demographics. In the 1990s and early 2000's, most DVC owners were families who followed their kids' school schedules for vacations. Now, there is a huge contingent of older DVC members, sans children, who can easily go in the Fall at other than holiday times.That shift in demographics will continue particularly now as the population that purchased SSR becomes mostly older adults with children no longer in school, which should intensify the Fall demand even more.

Seven years ago there was seldom a concern about getting a reservation exactly 11 months out except on occassion for BCV and BWV standard view during first week of Dec or time around NYE. Now the issue is arising with several room classes and over more times. Part of that is a just a factor of Disney creating more room categories that are in high demand but low supply. AKV club level studios (and as a result also 2BRs) are the obivous example with only 5 2BR lock-offs and it has issues at 11 monts out much of the year as a result. But the issue also exists with AKV value studios for which there are 20 possible rooms but very low point costs, BLT standard view for studios (and resulting 2BR lock-offs) in particular but also at times 1 BRs and dedicated 2BRs, BWV boardwalk view studios (and 2BR lock-offs) at times, and VGF studios. With VGF, the issue was created by Disney by selling a resort with a very high price per point and points needed per night with only 47 studios, compared to 147 other possible but larger rooms. Most bought enough points to get studios. Studio demand has alsways been the highest demand at any resort but with VGF, it dwarfs the demand for all the other sized rooms combined. We are now seeing elevated levels of competition at exactly 11 months out not just early Dec or time around NYE but during portions of Oct, early Nov, and marathon weekend in Jan. The cause is partly the continuing increase in demand for Fall time. It is also just partly due to DVC members now being far more informed about high demand times because of the addition of online booking and the resort availability tool, and thus more and more are taking the safe course of booking 11 months out or, in the case of some, walking reservations. However, another factor adding to increased demand at 11 months out is the growth of members seeking only studios at all the resorts. During the last 7 years, Disney has dropped minimum required purchases by new members from 160 to at times 100 and even as low as 50. Therre were also over the years a huge number of add-on contracts requiring a purchase of no more than 25 points. Fifteen years ago, the resale market on the internet was in its infancy, and it was difficult for an owner to sell outside of the internet (and that is still true). The internet market has grown over the years to a major force making resales easy to accomplish. The easiest contracts to sell, and ones in highest demand, are lower point contracts. The combination of low point add-ons that could be sold, lower point requirements for new purchasers, and the rise of internet sales of low point contracts has led to more and more owners at all the resorts having enough points to reserve only studios, and it is the excessive demand for studios that accounts for the bulk pf the problem that has developed for reservations even at 11 months out.

Bottom line: do not assume current demand patterns will remain the same. Demand for Fall and studios is likley to get more intense. The times when reservations may be difficult at 11 months out could increase. There could even be a major shift in seasonal demand just by Disney' creating new, or changing the dates of prior, special events. Disney could do point shifts that also cause significant changes in seasonal or room type demand. It could build another SSR and getting anything at 7 months out at near park resorts could become difficult even during lower demand times. Flexibility in time of travel, room size, and willingness to go to wait list should give you the maximum of options but the options that will come through with that strategy may decrease as time progresses.

Outstanding post. A must read for potential buyers. I think this post should be a sticky in itself.

Bravo Zulu. Great job explaining.

 

[Slakk]

For us, DVC went downhill to the point where we sold both of our contracts (both passed ROFR and are closing in the next month *fingers crossed*). We owned BWV and VBR which is probably obvious from my username lol. We could book at 11 months, but the days of short-notice trips are long-gone for us. That made DVC less-than-useful to us. Add to this the fact that the BWV renovation was years too late and then the hike in AP costs (we are on a school schedule, so we travel during "blackout" dates) and that was it for us.

Oddly, we haven't had the website or phone issues mentioned.

We own quite a few other timeshares that we trade, we are active members of RCI and II, and I can honestly say that I've never had the same issues of disrepair at other timeshares that I've had at DVC. Maybe we just had bad luck with DVC...I really don't know. We are at BWV now for our last trip, and all 4 of us are glad that this is it. None of us feels sad or nostalgic, and that alone makes me sad.

We own both DVC and Marriott and I feel the same. We used to own at HHI, AKV, BLT, BCV and SSR, we are down to HHI and AKV and everything else is gone. We have kept these as they are paid for and we use them for short trips etc. Our biggest beef is we tend to always get the WORST rooms available no matter where we stay at DVC and seem to run into people who paid rack rate who got better rooms (nothing says love like a 4 am dumpster run at VWL) I feel that DVC wants to get you in and once they have you they really don't do anything to keep you happy.

We own Marriott in the Caribbean and both resorts are fabulous. I never worry about rooms because we get the view we own, the resorts are in good shape. Now I am a deeded owner, I would NEVER join their destination points program but I have zero interest in purchasing more points in DVC ever.

 

[dizfan]

When PVB is sold out, it should make 1BRs and 2BRs at other resorts harder to book. In the past, sales staff used to tell people they could buy at any resort and stay anywhere. Certainly, a portion of the PVB buyers will decide they want to book 1BRs/2BRs at other resorts at 7 months.
If by chance DVD does a point reallocation making the PVB studios even higher points than VGF, some will decide there is even greater reason to book 1BR/2BR units at other resorts.

Next up is WL II and there are some rumors it will be similar to PVB. Hotel rooms converted to studios and high point 2BR water front cabins. This would increase the pressure for other accommodations.

After WL II, there are rumors of a BC II or YC addition to follow. If they continue the PVB model, booking patterns could change even further.

We also have a tremendous number of points that were bought within the last 6 or so years. Nearing the number of years where those who bought in 2009 may be looking to sell.

As drusba pointed out, things will change.

 

[dspud]

IMO the running of the DVC has gone downhill. Website has major issues, inventory disappears and re-appears, telephone hold times can be long, rooms often have cleaning and maintenance issues and the refurbishment schedules seem to wait until there are some major wear issues.

Bill

I would like to know why you stay with DVC? I see almost 100% negative posts from you. Most of them are legitimate gripes, but I am curious why, despite your gripes, you stay with DVC? I think newer members, like myself, would like to know what positives keeps a person, who has a lot of negatives to say about DVC, a member.

 

[disneynutz]

I would like to know why you stay with DVC? I see almost 100% negative posts from you. Most of them are legitimate gripes, but I am curious why, despite your gripes, you stay with DVC? I think newer members, like myself, would like to know what positives keeps a person, who has a lot of negatives to say about DVC, a member.

We stay with DVC for the discounted rooms hoping that things will turn around and we enjoy the theming at some of the resorts and WDW. We have been through 3 DVC management teams and each has been different. I will admit that it's getting harder to deal with Disney's mistakes.

This trip we checked into a room that had a coffee pot with coffee in it and a messed up bed that had been used by someone, everything else in the room had not been touched. The Bellman stated that he deals with housekeeping issues at least once a week sometimes more.

 

[apple9117]

Outstanding post. A must read for potential buyers. I think this post should be a sticky in itself.

Bravo Zulu. Great job explaining.

Agreed, this was an excellent post, so helpful!

 

[bwvBound]

I would like to know why you stay with DVC? I see almost 100% negative posts from you. Most of them are legitimate gripes, but I am curious why, despite your gripes, you stay with DVC? I think newer members, like myself, would like to know what positives keeps a person, who has a lot of negatives to say about DVC, a member.

While this post was not directed towards me, I often agree with Bill's concerns. Would you wish my input, also? If so ... please read on. If not, please be invited to skip. ;-)

My primary reason for holding on to DVC while viewing it through increasingly less rosy filters: Because you can't come back.
We've owned our points for 11+ years; our points have certain "status" (privilege). If we sold now -- we could not later rejoin with same level of membership we currently hold. While I might grumble about housekeeping and poor room maintenance -- it isn't so bad (yet) that I'm ready to make a one-way journey through the exit door.

The irony? My stated reason is one example of how DVC has changed (-for-the-worse) over time. In 2011 (?), DVD/DVC management drew a line in the sand differentiating "Class A shares" (purchased through the developer) and "Class B shares" (traded on the resale market). This follows similar moves made by other timeshare companies, right?

 

[chalee94]

the OP should definitely understand that DVC - like any timeshare - will "change" over time.

if you bought OKW back in the 1990s for the 7 point per night studios on weeknights, you might think paying almost 50% more for those rooms is a bummer. if you loved DVC for the valet parking, that perk is long gone. some of the changes are positive, but it is true that the resorts are only going to get older and this may test Disney's abilities at resort management...

 

[jodifla]

While this post was not directed towards me, I often agree with Bill's concerns. Would you wish my input, also? If so ... please read on. If not, please be invited to skip. ;-)

My primary reason for holding on to DVC while viewing it through increasingly less rosy filters: Because you can't come back.
We've owned our points for 11+ years; our points have certain "status" (privilege). If we sold now -- we could not later rejoin with same level of membership we currently hold. While I might grumble about housekeeping and poor room maintenance -- it isn't so bad (yet) that I'm ready to make a one-way journey through the exit door.

The irony? My stated reason is one example of how DVC has changed (-for-the-worse) over time. In 2011 (?), DVD/DVC management drew a line in the sand differentiating "Class A shares" (purchased through the developer) and "Class B shares" (traded on the resale market). This follows similar moves made by other timeshare companies, right?

You make a great point. We've owned almost 20 years, and while we have not been pleased with all the changes, we are still thrilled to be able to stay at WDW in large accommodations for a fraction of the price it would be today. I think in 5 years you'll be looking at direct points that are in the $225 price range, and people who thought they would just dump DVC and rent through RCI will be out of luck.

 

[keishashadow]

Hi. First let me say that we put just our toes in the water initially with a 25 point contract and loved virtually everything about DVC so we now have 2 "normal sized" contracts as well. We have another waiting on FROR (though I think it has a slim chance of making it - fingers crossed).

My thought/concern when I talk to people with non-Disney timeshares is that they say things get worse over time. I'm not specifically wondering about resorts getting older or annual fees going up some, but wondering about reservations. I've talked to people who say it is nearly impossible for them to find dates to use their points.

Is the DVC setup such that no matter how many resorts/rooms there are it will always be about the same difficulty to make a reservation? I'm asking because though some room types and seasons book up right away we have had good success when we are flexible and even when we waitlist.

Would love to hear from the "experts".

We bought our contracts where we wanted to stay. Once SSR was built it became evident that with the influx of new members, we would have to book 'our' resorts before the 7 month window.

We are fond of BWV standard and AKV value studios and have been shut out even at the 11 month window likely from walking reservations is my guess. Yes, I have employed the strategy too, but unable to do so in October due to crossing over into new UY. I have had decent success with waitlisting and watching the MS website like a hawk. I recently snagged the last day i needed for next October's trip @ BWV - yea. Note that I had the day waitlisted also.

I am less than a month back from my 1st stay @ SSR. Was shocked how shabby the furniture was in the studio, including broken drawers hanging from the tv area. Found several of pieces of wood that had been knocked off corners placed upon the night stand and more splintered ones under the bed. Not sure how mousekeeping missed them.

My DiL wanted to book the bounceback offer that was in our room. Turned out it had expired weeks earlier. CRO told us it was up to the manager's discretion to honor it. After leaving several phone calls for said mgr that weren't returned, we tromped over and were told flatly "no" by a CM at the front desk. When I asked to speak to the mgr on duty, was told he was "too busy". It wasn't being denied the ability to book the offer (which should've been pulled out of the rooms if it was expired), moreso the delivery that I found lacking as to what most experts here will recall as "The Disney Difference".

 

[bwvBound]

Found several of pieces of wood that had been knocked off corners placed upon the night stand and more splintered ones under the bed. Not sure how mousekeeping missed them.

Perhaps mousekeeping helped create the broken bits of wood by running into the furniture with hasty vacuuming patterns?

 

[LoveBWVVBR]

You make a great point. We've owned almost 20 years, and while we have not been pleased with all the changes, we are still thrilled to be able to stay at WDW in large accommodations for a fraction of the price it would be today. I think in 5 years you'll be looking at direct points that are in the $225 price range, and people who thought they would just dump DVC and rent through RCI will be out of luck.

That may be true, but speaking as someone who dumped DVC, I really wouldn't care if I couldn't trade in. However, I don't see that as a real possibility given 1) the number of new members added all the time, 2) the fact that some % of members trade out every year and 3) the increasing % of people trading out because they cannot get the res. they want/need. If anything, trading in has gotten much easier since DVC moved from II to RCI. They never implemented a 1 in 4 which I can only explain due to a glut of inventory that people don't even want to trade for. SSR seems to be a "marketing tool" more than anything, and I think it's used as such with trades too. I doubt we'll ever see the day when trading in is difficult, and if we do...oh well. I didn't sell because it's cheaper and easier to trade in. I sold because DVC was no longer a timeshare I really thought was worth it.

 

[jodifla]

That may be true, but speaking as someone who dumped DVC, I really wouldn't care if I couldn't trade in. However, I don't see that as a real possibility given 1) the number of new members added all the time, 2) the fact that some % of members trade out every year and 3) the increasing % of people trading out because they cannot get the res. they want/need. If anything, trading in has gotten much easier since DVC moved from II to RCI. They never implemented a 1 in 4 which I can only explain due to a glut of inventory that people don't even want to trade for. SSR seems to be a "marketing tool" more than anything, and I think it's used as such with trades too. I doubt we'll ever see the day when trading in is difficult, and if we do...oh well. I didn't sell because it's cheaper and easier to trade in. I sold because DVC was no longer a timeshare I really thought was worth it.

Yes, I think we all understand this by now. Your relentless trashing of DVC is everywhere.

 

[LoveBWVVBR]

Yes, I think we all understand this by now. Your relentless trashing of DVC is everywhere.

Oh I totally forgot that these boards were only for those who loved DVC and never had a bad experience! Sorry!!

 

[jodifla]

Oh I totally forgot that these boards were only for those who loved DVC and never had a bad experience! Sorry!!

As I said, I don't love everything about DVC, and certainly feel there have been changes that aren't for the better. (I miss my peach towels in OKW and valet parking, to name just a few things.) But given your "DVC Gold" banner and your screen name, the 180 you've done is pretty striking. As a 19 year owner, I don't get it.

 

[LoveBWVVBR]

As I said, I don't love everything about DVC, and certainly feel there have been changes that aren't for the better. (I miss my peach towels in OKW and valet parking, to name just a few things.) But given your "DVC Gold" banner and your screen name, the 180 you've done is pretty striking. As a 19 year owner, I don't get it.

We are a family with young kids, we live locally, and we loved DVC to the point where we used to talk about what we'd do when the contracts expired. We even got my parents to buy in because we loved it so much that we sold them on it. What does it take to turn a family like us into people who sell their contracts? It wasn't minor things like valet parking and peach towels.

Believe me, I'm not flattering myself that DVC cares about any of this. Why should they? People are still buying in in droves. I know that we aren't alone in our 180 though.

 

[Brian Noble]

If we sold now -- we could not later rejoin with same level of membership we currently hold.

Well, you could, but you'd have to pay developer price to do so (assuming you are talking about grandfathered resale points).

They never implemented a 1 in 4 which I can only explain due to a glut of inventory that people don't even want to trade for.

The regional block gives them most of what they need in terms of differential marketing. They don't market to inbounds aggressively enough to also take advantage of a 1-in-4.

As for SSR being a marketing tool: I think it has been, but in an unexpected way. Now that 1BRs there are about the only thing deposited to RCI, some TUGgers have decided to buy so they can stay somewhere else or in something larger once in a while.

 

[bwvBound]

Well, you could, but you'd have to pay developer price to do so (assuming you are talking about grandfathered resale points).

Right ... but at today's prices there is no way that would happen.

 

[MickeyCrazed]

Glad we are not the only ones holding onto points hoping Disney will turn around. We are so disappointed with the service that we no longer go to the parks. Haven't stepped foot in them in over 3 years. We treat our WDW Timeshare as just a room to stay in now. The majority of our money is spent offsite.

 

[Brian Noble]

Glad we are not the only ones holding onto points hoping Disney will turn around. We are so disappointed with the service that we no longer go to the parks. Haven't stepped foot in them in over 3 years. We treat our WDW Timeshare as just a room to stay in now. The majority of our money is spent offsite.

You should consider renting your points out, and staying in some of the many wonderful Orlando-area timeshares instead. You'll have enough money left over to have some very nice meals, and then some.