Wow. 2021 Annual Dues

[GrtDisGuy]

Across all DVC resorts, the average CAGR is 4.01%. If you don't add in CCV and RIV, it's 4.48%.
For the resorts I own, it averages to 4.62% in 2021. CAGR for past 5 years is 3.62%. But I do own both CCV and RIV.

It depends on your resort, honestly. I've updated my chart based on 2021 dues, so note that this is assuming CAGR through 2021 not 2020:

HISTORICAL ANNUAL DVC DUES
Year	OKW	BWV	VB	VB(s)	HHI	BRV	BCV	SSR	AKV	BLT	VGC	ADV	ADV(s)	VGF	PVB	CCV	RIV
2021	8.36	7.81	11.23	8.86	9.97	8.11	7.44	7.11	8.03	6.90	6.99	8.35	6.28	6.81	7.05	7.59	8.38
2020	7.84	7.37	10.13	8	9.1	7.78	7.06	6.77	7.67	6.58	6.6	8.33	6.26	6.56	6.79	7.45	8.31
2019	7.23	7.17	9.48	7.48	8.56	7.32	6.94	6.4	7.44	6.4	6.27	7.86	5.91	6.39	6.76	7.42	8.31
2018	6.72	6.55	8.53	6.71	7.72	6.93	6.44	5.86	6.76	5.92	5.88	7.53	5.66	6.13	6.2	7.26
2017	6.41	6.47	8.11	6.49	7.27	6.54	6.27	5.6	6.59	5.62	5.61	7.03	5.28	5.9	6.14	7.33
2016	6.01	6.18	8.08	6.35	6.82	6.22	6.13	5.44	6.42	5.28	5.37	6.79	5.1	5.71	6.09
2015	5.84	6.07	8.06	6.28	6.52	6.03	5.97	5.17	6.3	5.05	5.15	6.51	4.89	5.52	6.02
2014	5.54	6.01	7.75	6.06	6.28	5.93	5.79	4.91	5.97	4.78	4.94	6.44	4.84	5.41
2013	5.34	5.84	7.41	5.8	6.02	5.79	5.65	4.81	5.67	4.5	4.58	6.25	4.7	5.41
2012	5.2	5.62	7.12	5.57	5.93	5.61	5.5	4.73	5.44	4.22	4.33	5.96	4.48
2011	4.98	5.46	6.78	5.31	5.68	5.34	5.28	4.51	5.01	3.89	4.07	5.73	4.31
2010	4.87	5.36	6.61	5.18	5.57	5.2	5.15	4.46	4.95	3.78	3.94
2009	4.73	5.21	6.41	4.97	5.36	5.04	5	4.34	4.86	3.67	3.82
2008	4.56	5.04	6.04	4.71	5.16	4.87	4.8	4.21	4.71
2007	4.4	4.85	5.63	4.39	4.98	4.73	4.63	4.12	4.62
2006	4.24	4.69	5.27	4.12	4.34	4.61	4.48	3.98
2005	3.86	4.41	4.87	3.84	4.04	4.35	4.27	3.83
2004	3.68	4.25	4.67	3.67	3.86	4.22	4.18	3.8
2003	3.49	4.11	4.36	3.45	3.7	4.05	3.97
2002	3.22	3.92	4.17	3.33	3.48	3.8	3.77
2001	3.13	3.82	3.97	2.7	3.32	3.63
2000	3.16	3.94	4.08	2.87	3.25	3.62
1999	3.16	4.02	3.99	2.82	3.18
1998	3.17	3.94	---	2.76	3.2
1997	3.14	3.84	---	2.9	3.16
1996	2.99	3.7	---	2.82	3.16
1995	2.84
1994	2.7
1993	2.63
1992	2.56
1991	2.51
YEARS OPENED (includes 1st year)	31	26	23	26	26	22	20	18	15	13	13	11	11	9	7	5	3
CAGR	3.96%	2.92%	4.60%	4.50%	4.52%	3.73%	3.46%	3.54%	3.75%	4.98%	4.76%	3.49%	3.48%	2.59%	2.29%	0.70%	0.30%
Last 5 Years CAGR	5.45%	3.84%	6.73%	6.41%	6.53%	4.39%	3.47%	4.89%	4.03%	4.19%	4.50%	3.51%	3.53%	2.92%	2.81%	0.70%	0.30%

Ave CAGR (all):	4.01%	no CCV,RIV:	4.48%
Ave CAGR (WDW):	3.36%	no CCV,RIV:	4.00%
Ave CAGR 5 years (all):	3.39%	no CCV,RIV:	3.77%
Ave CAGR 5 years (WDW):	2.93%	no CCV,RIV:	3.47%

I continue to be at awe about the amazing info from folks on this site. Great analysis. Thanks so much!

 

[ScubaCat]

I have owned DVC points since 2009. When I purchased I went in with my eyes wide open. I knew there were going to be HOA dues and that they were only going to increase over time. Hopefully, everyone on this thread realized the same thing. I am a numbers guy, made the projections years ago. They bothered me so much I have added several contracts since the original. Just remember, the HOA are not ever going to really go down. So complain if it makes you feel better, but it will not change anything.

I could always pay the exorbitant room rates for a basic room (plus taxes, parking, future resort fees, etc..) and not have a gold AP if they bother me. I'm going to stick with the dues and 2BR villas instead. To each his own!

 

[SecondEventuality]

Omph, nothing like a fresh perspective on annual dues that can completely cure addonitis!

 

[ScubaCat]

Omph, nothing like a fresh perspective on annual dues that can completely cure addonitis!

I agree with the first half of this

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I'm wondering if these increases change the math for SAP... is SSR still the best value, or has another resort, maybe BLT, closed the gap significantly in the long term? It's only 20 cents separating those two, and BLT still has a much higher buy-in, so I assume SSR is still the best value, no?

Now, if I could only find a subsidized AUL contract with Oct UY...

 

[DisneyDad0315]

I'm not going to complain about my Aulani annual dues. I own 100 points and it cost me $10,000. Before DVC, I would pay rack rates at Aulani, so each 4 day ocean view studio vacation would costs us about $3200 or so. Right now, for the days that I have booked with my points, the rack rate is $4,593. Aulani charges $100 extra per day, per adult for a party with more than 2 adults (for a studio). I used to pay an extra $400 for my mother in law to go with us on our 4 day trip. Now with DVC, my mother in law can travel with us and it does not cost me extra. I never rented points because my wife did not trust the process. We always paid rack rate before DVC.

 

[sethschroeder]

Riviera is no less dependent on buses than BLT. The only way to get to the most popular park from RIV is by bus!

Go based on attendance and total parks and RIV has less requirement.

Limited bus service to 2 parks vs 1 park.

Epcot + HS > MK

RIV does have a limited bus service to those two parks but when there is outages it's shared I believe with the CBR. (maybe I am wrong)

I think it will be another 2 years before the true transportation costs get aligned at RIV closures this year didn't help. Also will see if Disney adjusts how often the Skyliner stops for storms.

 

[M:SpilotISTC12]

Luckily I own at CCV so my increase isn't terrible. I'm just annoyed with DVC and this is the diarrhea icing on the poop cake that is the year 2020. After being locked out, canceling a trip, being forced to rent my banked 2019 points and some of my 2020 so they don't expire (December UY so no covid relief) I was expecting to have cheaper dues. I know they aren't totally connected but after this whole experience I've paid out the nose and got zero help from DVC. Just wanted something to go my way DVC wise in 2021. But probably not.

 

[BrianR]

Using the CAGR chart Lorana posted, I'm sitting at a 5 year CAGR aggregate of 2.14% between my 3 resorts. I'll take that all day any day!

 

[Lorana]

I'm wondering if these increases change the math for SAP... is SSR still the best value, or has another resort, maybe BLT, closed the gap significantly in the long term? It's only 20 cents separating those two, and BLT still has a much higher buy-in, so I assume SSR is still the best value, no?

Now, if I could only find a subsidized AUL contract with Oct UY...

Well, using how DVCResaleMarket.com calculates most economical resorts to purchase:

Spring 2020 for top 5 resorts:

Resort	Avg. Cost Per Pt.	Years Left	Cost Per Pt. Per Year from Price	2020 Dues	Total Cost Per Pt. Per Year	Rank: Fall 2019	Rank: Spring 2020	Rank Change
Polynesian	$136	46	$2.96	$6.79	$9.75	2	1	+1
Saratoga Springs	$104	34	$3.06	$6.77	$9.83	1	2	-1
Bay Lake Tower	$140	40	$3.50	$6.58	$10.08	3	3	—
Grand Floridian	$166	44	$3.77	$6.56	$10.33	5	4	+1
Copper Creek	$147	48	$3.06	$7.45	$10.51	6	5	+1

Now looking at 2021 dues instead:

Resort	Avg. Cost Per Pt.	Years Left	Cost Per Pt. Per Year from Price	2020 Dues	Total Cost Per Pt. Per Year	Rank: Fall 2019	Rank: Spring 2020	Rank Change
Polynesian	$136	46	$2.96	$7.05	$10.01	2	1	+1
Saratoga Springs	$104	34	$3.06	$7.11	$10.17	1	2	-1
Bay Lake Tower	$140	40	$3.50	$6.90	$10.40	3	3	—
Grand Floridian	$166	44	$3.77	$6.81	$10.58	5	4	+1
Copper Creek	$147	48	$3.06	$7.59	$10.65	6	5	+1

I didn’t vet the selling price, so the changes in those may affect the most economical SAP points, so it’s always worth calculating what your value would be. I got a 100-point CCV on resale for $134/point at height of Covid-19, which would make its total per year cost $10.38, putting it in third on the chart above. However my direct points were at $175/point, putting it at $11.24 which would drop it further.

 

[havoc315]

Go based on attendance and total parks and RIV has less requirement.

Limited bus service to 2 parks vs 1 park.

Epcot + HS > MK

RIV does have a limited bus service to those two parks but when there is outages it's shared I believe with the CBR. (maybe I am wrong)

I think it will be another 2 years before the true transportation costs get aligned at RIV closures this year didn't help. Also will see if Disney adjusts how often the Skyliner stops for storms.

BLT buses to just 2 parks (and Disney Springs)... They bus to DHS and AK. Epcot is purely temporary.
Riviera buses to the most popular park (MK, which has attendance pretty close to Epcot and DHS combined). But they both bus to 2 parks, plus Disney Springs.

It's not like there is any shortage of data:
Transportation cost Riviera -- $3,206,000, $1.05 per point.
Animal Kingdom Villas, which is 100% buses, but many many more units: $5,783,000, or $0.78 per point
BLT -- $2,336,000, or $0.41 per point.

And that's with the extra Epcot buses for 2021 factored in to the budget!

So those are the fact. My speculation would be -- Because it shares transportation with the Contemporary, and whatever internal cost sharing they use, BLT is responsible for a very low (or non-existent) portion of monorail costs.

Thus, long term.... I expect dues to be similar between BLT and RIV, though Riviera may consistently be a bit higher due to higher transportation costs.

 

[RoseGold]

I didn’t vet the selling price, so the changes in those may affect the most economical SAP points, so it’s always worth calculating what your value would be. I got a 100-point CCV on resale for $134/point at height of Covid-19, which would make its total per year cost $10.38, putting it in third on the chart above. However my direct points were at $175/point, putting it at $11.24 which would drop it further.

Their pricing average includes small contracts, so I've always found that price a little high, but close enough for the gist.

The swing in the summer might make the pricing number even less meaningful. Prices are higher now across the board, and ROFR is heating up. SSR is maybe a little down, but stable. VGF has been all over the place. I bought in mid-150s and now it's probably back at high 160s, who knows what that comes out to in the chart.

My VGF is 10.3, and I'm thrilled with that. Also makes points to cash conversion easy in my head!

Worth noting the RIV with the 300 point existing member discount price 170 comes to 11.85 on that chart, 14% higher than BLT.

 

[Sandisw]

I'm wondering if these increases change the math for SAP... is SSR still the best value, or has another resort, maybe BLT, closed the gap significantly in the long term? It's only 20 cents separating those two, and BLT still has a much higher buy-in, so I assume SSR is still the best value, no?

Now, if I could only find a subsidized AUL contract with Oct UY...

I think BLT has definitely become much closer and given that it is a near park resort, I’d say it makes it a real contender.

But, you are still looking at $40/pt initial difference which takes a long time to make up. For 100 points, $4k is not to bad snd you get 6 extra years,

Take the 500 points I bought for SAP, and now you are talking $20K. Lol

 

[RoseGold]

I'm wondering if these increases change the math for SAP... is SSR still the best value, or has another resort, maybe BLT, closed the gap significantly in the long term? It's only 20 cents separating those two, and BLT still has a much higher buy-in, so I assume SSR is still the best value, no?

Depends on what you mean by value. BLT has 6 extra years on the contract, so it depends on how much you think those will be worth when it's time to sell, or if you even plan on selling at all. If you (or your heir) want to hold past 2037, the extra years might be more than worth it.

But for low cash outlay and low commitment, it's hard to beat SSR. It's always coming and going with a stable price, and it has enough time on the contract to have a lot of choices for exit strategy. It's the most bought and sold timeshare in the world.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

But, you are still looking at $40/pt initial difference which takes a long time to make up.

Yeah, that initial cost is a downer and I'm not thrilled with the theme (but it really is lovely to have two bathrooms in a 1 bedroom!).

Depends on what you mean by value. BLT has 6 extra years on the contract, so it depends on how much you think those will be worth when it's time to sell, or if you even plan on selling at all. If you (or your heir) want to hold past 2037, the extra years might be more than worth it.

But for low cash outlay and low commitment, it's hard to beat SSR. It's always coming and going with a stable price, and it has enough time on the contract to have a lot of choices for exit strategy. It's the most bought and sold timeshare in the world.

I think you're totally right, it depends on whether the extra 6 years are worth it. Low cash outlay/commitment is what I was going for with SAP so I got SSR. I had seen the chart that @Lorana posted, and it seems PVB is still #1 on there but that still considers the long-term commitment. I just don't know if I'll need a lot of points in the long term for multiple trips; we may go back to only doing once a year trips, or we may want more points to bring more family along (mom and siblings live in S. FL).

We have RVA and my sense is that we'll eventually only do 8-10 day trips once per year, either all at RVA or mostly RVA with some VGF at the beginning/end for MK days. But since I don't know how our travel patterns might change, we went with SSR and it seems that's still a good value for our situation. Might upgrade to VGF down the line...

 

[Lorana]

Depends on what you mean by value. BLT has 6 extra years on the contract, so it depends on how much you think those will be worth when it's time to sell, or if you even plan on selling at all. If you (or your heir) want to hold past 2037, the extra years might be more than worth it.

But for low cash outlay and low commitment, it's hard to beat SSR. It's always coming and going with a stable price, and it has enough time on the contract to have a lot of choices for exit strategy. It's the most bought and sold timeshare in the world.

Yeah, that initial cost is a downer and I'm not thrilled with the theme (but it really is lovely to have two bathrooms in a 1 bedroom!).


I think you're totally right, it depends on whether the extra 6 years are worth it. Low cash outlay/commitment is what I was going for with SAP so I got SSR. I had seen the chart that @Lorana posted, and it seems PVB is still #1 on there but that still considers the long-term commitment. I just don't know if I'll need a lot of points in the long term for multiple trips; we may go back to only doing once a year trips, or we may want more points to bring more family along (mom and siblings live in S. FL).

We have RVA and my sense is that we'll eventually only do 8-10 day trips once per year, either all at RVA or mostly RVA with some VGF at the beginning/end for MK days. But since I don't know how our travel patterns might change, we went with SSR and it seems that's still a good value for our situation. Might upgrade to VGF down the line...

Yeah, the one thing these charts can't really capture is that "what is it worth to you."

After all, PVB may take the #1 rank, and BLT may look as if it's a better long term investment, but if you want 150 points and only have $15k to spend, SSR is the way to go. Likewise, if location matters, or that second bathroom is a deal-breaker, than it doesn't matter how great SSR is for SAP.

When we first bought in, the 3 sleeping spaces in a studio at BRV mattered more to us than the 2042 expiration, which is why we bought BRV instead of CCV, and when we first bought in, we had a budget we needed to stick with, and CCV was selling even on resale for too high a price for us (and would have resulted in too few points; we wanted to be able to do 2 weeks in a studio or a 6 nights in a 2BR). Later on, though, after adding on at AKV (also a favorite), we realized we wanted to get CCV as well, so that we'd have the Wilderness Lodge for retirement (which I'm hoping will be around 2042). At that point in time, the sleeps 5 in a studio won't matter to us; if we travel with our adult kids, we'll look at 2BRs then. So even what matters can change over time.

I think it is wise to look at the long term value and what you will get out of it; after all, most of us buy intending to hold to the end. But it's also worth considering the shorter 10-20 year timeframe, since you never know what may change down the line in your own life and preferences.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I thought the explanation for the RIV dues starting out so high was because they had already baked in the wage increases so there wouldn't need to be that big of an increase? If correct then 2021 doesn't tell much of a story of what will occur going forward there.

Also there's a fine point in calculations where if costs are increasing there's going to be a set amount on something say cleaning supplies etc. If they go up .25 cents per gallon the percentage calculation of that increase is higher for a resort with lower dues vs one with higher dues. BLT has seen a fair amount of that over the years where the calculated increase is higher than other locations but the actual $/pt has been similar. And then you have the point requirements per room that correspond to the points sold for the entire resort. It's been mentioned how OKW and RIV now cost the same so there's no difference however that's not looking at the entire picture. You will need anywhere from 35-50% more points for the same size villa at RIV compared to OKW. So if the dues are identical in calculation per point it still means you pay 35-50% more to stay at RIV than OKW plus you need to own more points for the same stay at RIV vs OKW meaning that effectively the dues are 35-50% higher at RIV than OKW. (I only looked at one seasons so those percentages probably vary a bit more depending on other seasonal point differences between the two). And of course that leads into the discussion of whether a particular resort should cost more to stay at although I find that an odd argument for a timeshare where it should be about actual costs (dues only) vs a cash resort where it can be argued about market preferences. The buy in price would factor in the resort demand not the dues.

Lots of nuances when considering what's higher and what's lower.

Now if you are going to use your points at any and all resorts and book at 7 months it's easier because the only thing you do care about is the $/pt.

Still, ugg on all the increases. I'm very interested to see if there are any credits that are given back for this past year.

 

[macman752]

DVCM gets a straight 12% management fee of the operating budget. If expenses exceed the budget, and are not due to an act of God, etc, then DVD steps in and covers a shortfall.

As mentioned, the extra cleaning, transportation and wages are contributing to the increase, FL just voted for a $15 minimum wage so any employees working at Disney are guaranteed that now.

It takes a few years to happen, but it is something that will impact as we move forward.

Florida’s $15 per hour minimum wage amendment passed but it is a gradual increase. $15 per hour is effective in 2026, not immediately.

 

[Sandisw]

Florida’s $15 per hour minimum wage amendment passed but it is a gradual increase. $15 per hour is effective in 2026, not immediately.

Correct, I believe I mentioned that but didn’t have the exact year.

 

[EM Lawrence]

The dues at BWV are giving me major pause about buying there, and I was SO SURE that is where I wanted my next contract to be. Now I’m reevaluating.