Wow! January re-opening?

[jme829]

I rarely post but saw this on our local news station FB post and thought I'd share. Crazy!

https://www.fox9.com/news/disney-theme-parks-may-not-reopen-until-2021-wall-street-analyst-says

 

[SaintsManiac]

Yes it's been posted many times across the forums.

 

[smmco]

You do realize that is just one financial analyst's opinion. Means about as much as if one us of said it.

 

[dclpluto]

I rarely post but saw this on our local news station FB post and thought I'd share. Crazy!

https://www.fox9.com/news/disney-theme-parks-may-not-reopen-until-2021-wall-street-analyst-says

that’s just aWall Street analyst. He doesn’t know anything more than I do of when the parks is going to reopen. Yep this has been posted all over the disboards. Community, rumors, dvc and probably more. Now if Bob Iger said it or the governor of Florida than it will mean something. He could be right. I said right here on disboards a few times that wdw will reopen around oct 1 . Just my guess just like January 2021 is his guess

 

[Ben E N]

While that analysis makes sense, its one person who said that and it's just bounced around from news site to news site. It's one person's prediction nonetheless.

 

[sam_gordon]

You do realize that is just one financial analyst's opinion. Means about as much as if one us of said it.

It's not even his opinion. It's his ASSUMPTION. Here's the quote: ""We believe Parks' profitability will be impaired for a longer period of time given the lingering effects of the outbreak and now assume an opening date of Jan. 1 as our base case,"
His role is to recommend what to do with stocks (buy/sell/hold). He's ASSUMING a January 1 reopening to change his stance on what to do with Disney stock. Is it possible Disney won't open until Jan 1? Sure. But (at least IMO) using this financial analyst's opinion is no different than yours, mine, or anyone on the internet.

 

[JimMIA]

It's not even his opinion. It's his ASSUMPTION. Here's the quote: ""We believe Parks' profitability will be impaired for a longer period of time given the lingering effects of the outbreak and now assume an opening date of Jan. 1 as our base case,"
His role is to recommend what to do with stocks (buy/sell/hold). He's ASSUMING a January 1 reopening to change his stance on what to do with Disney stock. Is it possible Disney won't open until Jan 1? Sure. But (at least IMO) using this financial analyst's opinion is no different than yours, mine, or anyone on the internet.

Exactly. That's what stock analysts do -- they assume a "base case" to give them a logical framework from which to estimate future movement of the stock price. If you change the assumptions of the "base case," everything else changes -- so he had to establish that first.

His purpose in this exercise was NOT to predict the re-opening dates, but to create a format from which he could make his predictions about future stock prices.

 

[choirfarm]

Yes, but what is more telling to me is that Disney hasn't refuted this. Today I had a Zoom meeting and someone told me they were not opening Disney until January. I told her that it was just one article, but all the general public saw was the headline. And no one at Disney had any response to it at all like we are trying our best to open earlier while keeping safety in mind, etc. But nothing. To me, them letting this stand with no rebuttal makes me wonder.

 

[Farro]

I don't think so. Check out the rumors/news threads ...some yet to be verified info out today that makes for good speculation!

 

[DisneyLover1217]

Right now they are letting you book trips from June 1st on. If they know they aren't opening until January, why would they let people book trips before then. They are also letting anyone who had their trip canceled because of COVID-19 can book free dining, again June 1st and after.

 

[disneydreamer1980]

Next January we’ll be in the throes or flu/covid season again (and still without a vaccine), so we’ll most likely be going through this again. So I’d think they’d try to open in summer to try to get a few months of money making before having to shut down again. Also, I’ve read in multiple places that many scientists don’t think a vaccine will ever even be possible due to the human response to the virus and various other factors. So either WDW will just be closing every flu season or people will just have to live in this new normal and be smart about self protection measures.

 

[JimMIA]

Yes, but what is more telling to me is that Disney hasn't refuted this. Today I had a Zoom meeting and someone told me they were not opening Disney until January. I told her that it was just one article, but all the general public saw was the headline. And no one at Disney had any response to it at all like we are trying our best to open earlier while keeping safety in mind, etc. But nothing. To me, them letting this stand with no rebuttal makes me wonder.

Companies don't respond to every news story, and in fact are often prohibited from saying what they want to say.

There may be some much more accurate information in their next earnings report and associated discussions by top Disney execs on May 5th, after the market close.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I really can't imagine Disney waiting until the middle of flu season to reopen. I dunno...doesn't make much sense. JMO

 

[Deb & Bill]

Gov DeSantis wants them to open up as soon as safely possible. We're losing a lot of money in taxes in Florida.

 

[EveDallas]

I rarely post but saw this on our local news station FB post and thought I'd share. Crazy!

https://www.fox9.com/news/disney-theme-parks-may-not-reopen-until-2021-wall-street-analyst-says

This is one person's opinion. Disney hasn't said anything yet.

 

[sam_gordon]

Gov DeSantis wants them to open up as soon as safely possible. We're losing a lot of money in taxes in Florida.

And I'm sure Disney wants to open up as soon as safely possible. BUT, if they react to EVERY rumor (unsubstantiated or not), they wouldn't have time to do anything else. Does anyone not think that if the nation is FULLY open up on July 1, and major sporting events are planned for the fall that Disney would also open it's doors?

 

[JimMIA]

WDW has two hurdles to opening. One is the obvious safety issue in a place that depends on huge crowds for its profitability.

The other is cost. It will cost a LOT of money to get ready to open, and once they are open, the fixed costs of operating are very high regardless of attendance. They can tolerate a period of lower than normal revenue, but they have to be able to see a way to generate at least enough revenue to break even pretty quickly.

They can't operate for very long in an environment where they are losing more money operating than they would lose if they were closed.

 

[bobbiwoz]

It really is more than one business person’s opinion. I may talk brave, like I want to travel before then, but I am probably waiting for a vaccine or definite treatment before I travel.

 

[zoo2tycoon]

Wish people would quit posting and believing rumors like this! Unless it comes from Disney it’s not true.

Saw someone post on Facebook that their newspaper delivery person said our state reopening! Seriously he now makes the decision?

 

[katmigordon]

Source? Everything I've seen has been very positive towards the idea of a working vacine.

Also, I’ve read in multiple places that many scientists don’t think a vaccine will ever even be possible due to the human response to the virus and various other factors.