I kind of ignored the whole thread but here is what I see happening....
1: Personal lives taking priority...
- really bad weather this year, biblical flooding, extreme highs.. people have to deal with their homes and lives
- the country has gone crazy.. so many shootings and man made disasters this year.. Is it safe to travel?
- is WDW safe? I hate to say it but that alligator incident I'm sure had a lot of people decide they would prefer somewhere else while it gets under control.
- Zika: is swamp and marshland safe to be in right now?
- recession: south america, au/nz, brexit, a lot of regulars to WDW just can't do it this year..
2: Being Nickle and Dimed..
- the increases are insane at disney this year so far. best discounts ever but you still have to eat and drink (yes I know ways to do that but does average not on this forum guest know that?)
- the line went to far and many just can't do it no matter how much they want too.
- disney has created a you better plan for 6 months or your not going to have fun mentality that the best discounts ever offered has people thinking you can't plan with this short notice if they even noticed the discounts because they probably booked somewhere else already.
3: Construction zone...
- the picture is painted that more is closed and not opened. not exactly true but things that should have opened failed too and it helps people decide that right now is not the time for WDW.
- things are coming.. This is going to be a huge part of it.. it's getting close enough to new things, mixed with the disney you better plan a year in advance precedent that people are waiting for it all to open and plan that massive visit with more money and going light on family vacations right now...
- if this is a once in a lifetime trip, they want everything opened and new things happening to be the best trip they will ever take.. (even though we all know they will be back but we all thought WDW was a once and done place).
And the real answer for what's going on...... It's a mixture of the above in everyones head... Disney's created a planning culture that can wait years to come while planning it out, it's starting to be felt.
I would be skipping the next year or three if I didn't move here.. I might head to other properties but I would probably head out to some other family favorites or bucket list destinations for now and wait until the 50th.
I agree with the bulk of your comments.
I am a planner by nature. There is nothing fun about standing in a circle trying to come to a consensus about teh plan for the day, but HOLY PLANNING!!! It is a lot.
Cost vs Value. I always look at the total cost and efuse to separate the park tix because we are not RD to park close people. I do not want to resent any portion of the trip. However I am planning a December trip and it is pretty expensive. More than last one, and for pe personally I may be at my own tipping point. Your nickel and dime comment is what strikes home for me. I do nto mind paying for something new, but I am not at all happy that if I want a certain spot for viewing fireworks what used to be included in my entrance fee is now a pay for play event.
Safety. For me, this is not a factor, but I saw from all of the threads posted recently, it is for many. I am more nervous about taking my DGD to NYC than I am getting on a plane and staying in WDW, but I think that peceptions of personal safety are relative, so I bet that after the recent attacks world wide, some folks are staying closer to home where they know the area and are comfortable.
Construction: that picture sure is not pretty lately. I do not agree that the picture is accurate but a wiser person than I says "My perception is your reality" and I think that is the case here.
I think that this next trip may be the last for a while. Now I love WDW as my destination, and it has been my first choice for years, but as I look at my own value vs cost, I am now questioning the money. That has never happened before. I am taking DGD to NYC for 3 days, and while the cost is very high, I see a value. DH and I have allocated a sum that rivals a Disney vacation, but so far the money seems reasonable for the destination.
I understand that we can all choose to travel on a tighter budget. I know that I can plan a truly budget WDW vacation. I don't vacation that way unless I am plannign an "extra trip, so I need to know that I am satisfied with the value. I know I could travel to NYC cheaper by compromising on my travel there, food and lodging choices, as well as well as attractions. I do not want to, so I need to know I will not feel buyers remorse. This is where DIsney vets are feeling the pinch. We know that if we want to keep the cost comparable to what we were used to, keeping in mind cost of business increases, we need to compromise. And we do not want to.