Why are crowds lower this summer?

[JerseyJanice]

Maybe people are a little afraid to travel? I wonder if there is any way to see what the cancellation rate was.

Afraid of their economic situation? Or afraid of American gun violence?

I suspect that if I lived in Europe or Asia, recent news from the U.S. would have me thinking long and hard about visiting here.

 

[Kristine316]

Afraid of their economic situation? Or afraid of American gun violence?

I suspect that if I lived in Europe or Asia, recent news from the U.S. would have me thinking long and hard about visiting here.

If I lived in Europe I would be a lot more concerned with European issues and dangers and not thinking about "American gun culture". It's not like people aren't getting blown up and shot over there as well. In fact I would think Europe is just as dangerous if not more so than the US when it comes to travel right now.

 

[graceclaire925]

I fail to see how the 180 ADR window (which debuted in 2009 btw) and FP+, the 2 things you list as not liking, are part of any "money grab". I get not liking either of those things, but neither of them have anything to do with Disney squeezing pennies from their guests.

I struggle too a bit with people that complain the Disney resorts are over-priced. For comparison, I'm going up to Mackinaw City soon for a couple of days. The hotels there are nothing fancy by any stretch. Very very basic. And for those, in the city, the absolute cheapest is $130 a night. For a motel I would be leery to stay in. We are talking very basic motels. Anything nicer and you would pay $200 a night. For a motel that can't hold a candle to a Disney value.

Disney value? Hmmm...... We decided not to go to Disney this year because of the myriad other reasons posted on this thread. Instead we are going to Hawaii. We are staying at a 600 room luxury resort located on 40 acres. It has plenty of dining options and 6 breathtaking pools, including an adults only pool. We have an oceanfront room with club level and the best part is the ocean is out the back door. Beautiful beach. The grand Floridian club rate is $125 per night more. I have stayed at Disney hotels and I have stayed at universal hotels. Universal hotels blow Disney away. I have stayed in Disney moderates and deluxes and there is no comparison to other hotels. They charge what they charge because they can get away with it because people but into the "Disney experience". Although it would seem they might be starting to see a pushback. I don't think anyone thinks of "value" when they think of Disney hotels.

 

[bryanb]

- things are coming.. This is going to be a huge part of it.. it's getting close enough to new things, mixed with the disney you better plan a year in advance precedent that people are waiting for it all to open and plan that massive visit with more money and going light on family vacations right now...
- if this is a once in a lifetime trip, they want everything opened and new things happening to be the best trip they will ever take.. (even though we all know they will be back but we all thought WDW was a once and done place).

It's a very good point. Steve Jobs learned a lesson very early when running Apple when he announced the next big product. Suddenly, sales of the current product took a big dive as people waited. I realize Disney needed to make a big announcement, but people have no idea how long it will take to open the Star Wars land. I've heard people say they'll just wait for it to be open before they splurge on a trip.

For me it's all about value and Disney doesn't give me the value it once did. For a week at Disney, after buying tickets, rooms and food it's almost $3K. I just took a 4 week road trip to the GC and other points and spent just under $3K, including room, gas, food, admissions, etc. Much better vacation deals are out there and those destinations will be getting my money.

If I was only able to go to Disney World once or twice in my lifetime, I'd be willing to pay a lot more for that special trip where everything is new and exciting. Those who have gone many times will definitely see the value go down (on average) due to the law of diminishing returns. Give me an excellent steak dinner, I might pay a lot and call it a great value. Give me expensive steaks every night, and I will start seeing its flaws and be willing to pay less.

Afraid of their economic situation? Or afraid of American gun violence?

I suspect that if I lived in Europe or Asia, recent news from the U.S. would have me thinking long and hard about visiting here.

Sadly, I do think that people are afraid of American gun violence. You're right, I'd think twice about going to any foreign country when there are so many stories of violence coming out of there.

They charge what they charge because they can get away with it because people but into the "Disney experience". Although it would seem they might be starting to see a pushback. I don't think anyone thinks of "value" when they think of Disney hotels.

Totally agree. Although hotel rates are really easy to adjust. A lot of hotel companies (probably including Disney) have systems that adjust the price point in order to hit a certain occupancy level. If rooms are filling up too quickly, the price rises. They might never see a specific point of pushback, because it has been the demand that drove prices to where they are now... not necessarily the other way around.

 

[JZCubed]

We're headed to WDW in Sep. but I've been stalking live wait times just to get a better idea of what rides develop long lines earliest, as I plan for FP+. I've been surprised how low the wait times in general have been on many of the rides. I've also read many posts commenting on lower crowds this summer.

Why do you all think crowds are lower this year? Has Disney hit a point where it's too expensive for some families? Has the opening of Shanghai Disney taken some of the international visitors away from WDW? What other factors could be contributing to this? I'm just curious!

I just returned a home a few hours ago after traveling at the same period one year ago.

Without reading all the comments, here's my list (in no particular order):

1.) Foreign exchange rates will certainly keep some foreign travelers away. A costly vacation is even more costly for these folks.
2a.) Disney pricing in general, even for Americans not impacted by foreign exchange rates, has priced more families out.
2b.) Universal (and others) has created real competition, this includes other Disney locations.
3.) Record heat has been making news for two years.
4.) Locals avoiding the Parks due to security concerns (metal detectors are telling).
5.) Some families are bothered by the news of the recent alligator tragedy and drowning at a resort pool last summer.
6a.) The extra planning required in the FP+ generation has some folks rethinking Disney vacations.
6b). Some folks (like us) can spend less time in the Parks because of the new FP+ system.
7.) Some folks are waiting for Avatar Land (like my best friend).

At the margins, slightly lower crowds will feel even smaller when Disney is operating at full blast.

Also, don't underestimate the ability of increased capacity at Soarin' & Toy Story, along with new Frozen experiences in Epcot and new nighttime activities in both Animal Kingdom & Hollywood Studios to spread crowds out. For instance (and this is anecdotal from our 10-night stay) Bay Lake Tower is 'sold out' right now, but the Lounge felt empty...leading me to think more folks are going to both AK & HS instead of feeling like MK & EP are the only Parks to enjoy an evening. In other words, folks have discovered new touring plan styles.

What I'm suggesting is that Disney attendance may not be down as much as folks think, it's that the crowds have been more evenly disbursed. We'll learn more when Mr. Iger has his next shareholder meeting.

 

[Tgrgrl]

We are local to WDW (45 minute drive) and have a 5 & 8 yr old, so we know tons of families and no one, I mean no one, we know renewed annual passes this year. The ones who "did" Disney, did the FL resident 3-day pass that ended the first week of June. Sea World, Legoland, Orlando Science Center all had great annual pass incentives this year and I think took a lot of local business away from Disney.

 

[Deanie1]

I am from BC, Canada and there are 3 main reasons keeping me away from WDW:

1. It's a long trek to WDW so I am waiting until Avatarland and possibly some of Starwars gets finished.
2. Lousy exchange rate.
3. Third but not least - yes the increase in American gun violence. (Yes, I know that no where is considered "safe".

I do hope to visit WDW one last time, possibly fall of 2017 and then I am done. Depending on the exchange, I will likely move from my favourite POR to a value hotel and also do only 1-2 TS. We will also stay -2 nights at a Universal hotel.

Don't forget that the cost of WDW hotels includes the bus service around the resort and also ME.

 

[maxiesmom]

Disney value? Hmmm...... We decided not to go to Disney this year because of the myriad other reasons posted on this thread. Instead we are going to Hawaii. We are staying at a 600 room luxury resort located on 40 acres. It has plenty of dining options and 6 breathtaking pools, including an adults only pool. We have an oceanfront room with club level and the best part is the ocean is out the back door. Beautiful beach. The grand Floridian club rate is $125 per night more. I have stayed at Disney hotels and I have stayed at universal hotels. Universal hotels blow Disney away. I have stayed in Disney moderates and deluxes and there is no comparison to other hotels. They charge what they charge because they can get away with it because people but into the "Disney experience". Although it would seem they might be starting to see a pushback. I don't think anyone thinks of "value" when they think of Disney hotels.

Put a resort after my Disney value. Disney value resorts are not that out of bounds when you compare their pricing with some other places.

Value is very subjective. There has always been "nicer" off site resorts. It depends, do you value the room itself more than location? More than the perks that come with an on site room? The answer to which is the better value differs from person to person.

I know when I try to price out a trip to WDW based on cost alone, I am hard pressed to get a trip together for less than what I would pay for a Disney value resort. But I would never stay off site without a car. I put a high value on the fact I can walk out a Disney resort and be on my way within minutes. I value not having to drive. Others don't. That is fine. But yeah, I still think Disney hotels are a good value for what they provide.

 

[DVCcurious]

I totally agree. None of this is a result of the Brexit. Next year though? It will be interesting to watch.

As an economist I'm always really surprised by what "the common man" thinks about the economy. I find this whole "Brexit" thing fascinating. People are really scared about the whole Brexit affect. The market tanked like 5% immediately after (of course, a week later we're back to all time highs). Brexit will have very little, and probably zero, measurable effect on the world economy (which is why the market is back to all time highs). Even if Great Britain exits the EU it will take 5 years before it happens. 5 years!!! Tell me how an event that may happen 5 years from now affects the economy today.

I know, I know, you saw on TV news that Brexit would be DEVASTATING! But remember, there is a political candidate in the US who is running on a similar Brexit-style platform in regards to immigration. And remember, these TV news reporters are hopelessly biased. So what they are really trying to do is scare you into voting for the other political candidate.

There is currently an economic slow down in Europe, South America, and parts of Asia and the Middle East. While it's not officially a "recession" yet, the economy is doing poorly in most of the world. This could be a real reason why attendance at WDW has fallen.

While no one I know of is actually concerned about Brexit I can tell you that people in my work arena are concerned about the earnings recession which will continue into next quarter. I believe this will be the 6th straight quarter of falling earnings for the S&P 500. We are also very concerned with the extremely low employment rate (aka: labor force participation rate). Sure, the unemployment rate has fallen, but anyone who knows anything knows that that is a B.S. statistic. What matters is how many people have jobs. And right now we have fewer people with jobs than any time since 1977. In a healthy economy people are working. And right now people just aren't working. That's why you won't see an interest rate increase for at least one year. It will be summer 2017 at the very earliest before rates will move up .25%

Brexit is like a little flea on a giant tiger. And the giant tiger is falling S&P earnings and low employment.

We are headed to a recession and will probably be in a recession within the next year. And then you'll really see attendance at WDW fall.

Edit: I forgot to mention that we also watch the median wage figures. Labor force participation and median wage are much more reliable indicators of the economy's health than the headline unemployment number you see on the news. Most Americans haven't seen real wages (after inflation) rise in the past decade. And a lot of people are making less today (after inflation) than in 2006. Again, that's not the sign of a healthy economy. Good economy = more people getting jobs and wages rising due to supply/demand interaction. When the economy's good employers need more workers, which raises demand, which raises prices (wages). Right now we're seeing falling employment and stagnating wages.

If people are making less today than in 2006 that could be a factor in attendance at WDW as well.

 

[mom2rtk]

As an economist I'm always really surprised by what "the common man" thinks about the economy. I find this whole "Brexit" thing fascinating. People are really scared about the whole Brexit affect. The market tanked like 5% immediately after (of course, a week later we're back to all time highs). Brexit will have very little, and probably zero, measurable effect on the economy (which is why the market is back to all time highs).

I know, I know, you saw on TV news that Brexit would be DEVASTATING! But remember, there is a political candidate in the US who is running on a similar Brexit-style platform in regards to immigration. And remember, these TV news reporters are hopelessly biased. So what they are really trying to do is scare you into voting for the other political candidate.

What I can tell you is that people in my work arena are much more concerned about the earnings recession which will continue into next quarter. I believe this will be the 6th straight quarter of falling earnings for the S&P 500. We are also very concerned with the extremely low employment rate (aka: labor force participation rate). Sure, the unemployment rate has fallen, but anyone who knows anything knows that that is a B.S. statistic. What matters is how many people have jobs. And right now we have fewer people with jobs than any time since 1977.

Brexit is like a little flea on a giant tiger. And the giant tiger is falling S&P earnings and low employment.

We are headed to a recession and will probably be in a recession within the next year. And then you'll really see attendance at WDW fall.

I'm not surprised by any of that.

And I hope nobody is surprised when it does tip and go south (for oh so many reasons).

I continue to be amazed that we don't see more discussion about the actual employment rate. It's lower than it was nearly 40 years ago and that was about the time women were starting to enter the work force in big numbers. I find that shocking. But hey. Unemployment is under 5% so it's all good.

 

[dreiwhit]

3. Third but not least - yes the increase in American gun violence. (Yes, I know that no where is considered "safe".

Don't believe everything you see on the news. IMHO, they tend to give false impressions of calamity and doom.

Yes, there are cities or places you don't want to go into in America, but you can say that about all countries. For the most part, America is a safe country. For example, I live in a metro area of 374,536 people. No one has been murdered in this area for some time.

 

[Kwdsue]

We've never been in Sep before. This year will be our first trip. After reading all the posts, I'm preparing like I always did when we went in July. We can start reserving our FP+ tomorrow. Hopefully we'll get everything to work out in "the Plan!" I continue to check every day, but so far I haven't been able to secure an ADR for BoG. I now know I should have made it at 180 days out, but never dreamed it would be a problem for Sep. Everyone on this site says it's still possible to get one close to the date we'd like, so I'll keep trying. (Just keep swimming, just keep swimming )

 

[Mambo Junkie]

When I have stayed on Disney property, it does matter where I stay. I do not like/enjoy the buses, so I prefer either the MK or Epcot resorts. They have become super pricy, especially with the cost of food and tickets. The only positive about riding the bus is going to MK, only because with a reduced monorail schedule, it's such a hassle to get from the parking lot to the park. I have stayed at Caribbean Beach, Port Orleans Riverside, AoA and Old Key West (unattached to parks). Of the 4, my favorite was OKW because of the balcony and the view. The bus ride was not as bad as the others, however it was still a bus ride. I would love to stay at one of the AK resorts, but they are just so far from everything. I've stayed at the Contemporary, Beach Club and Polynesian and by far my favorite was BC, but it's off the charts expensive. This trip we are staying at the Yacht Club for only 1 night to access Epcot's newest attractions and HS. Then we move offsite to my timeshare which is less than a mile away and on a lake. We bought APs for US this last trip. Though I would rather have had WDW APs, just too much money and being from Virginia, we could not justify the cost.

 

[dreiwhit]

Edit: I forgot to mention that we also watch the median wage figures. Labor force participation and median wage are much more reliable indicators of the economy's health than the headline unemployment number you see on the news. Most Americans haven't seen real wages (after inflation) rise in the past decade. And a lot of people are making less today (after inflation) than in 2006. Again, that's not the sign of a healthy economy. Good economy = more people getting jobs and wages rising due to supply/demand interaction. When the economy's good employers need more workers, which raises demand, which raises prices (wages). Right now we're seeing falling employment and stagnating wages.

Great post! I agree with everything you said in it!

I tell people that back in 2004, I had more bills for higher amounts, put money into savings, put money into a 401k and had plenty of discretionary income left over. In 2016, I have fewer bills for less amounts, put money into a 401k, put money into savings, and have no discretionary income.

In 2013, For the first time in my then 20 year working career, I had to take a hefty pay cut to keep my job. Before then, my salary had gone up every year and with every job change. This year I also had to take another pay cut to take a more stable job. In my area, and in my career field (Information Technology), my career field has never recovered from the recession in 2008. Good paying IT jobs are scarce, and the trend is for people to be forced to take pay cuts each year. For example, right now one company is paying experienced IT workers the same salary I was making back in 2000 - and back then I was considerably underpaid. Jobs are scarce around here, and companies know it.

I once figured out what I would have to be making to have the same buying power that I did back in the early 2000s. It was about $30,000 more a year.

To tie this into Disney, its getting harder and harder to spend the money to go to Disney when we have less money available each year.

 

[Mambo Junkie]

We've never been in Sep before. This year will be our first trip. After reading all the posts, I'm preparing like I always did when we went in July. We can start reserving our FP+ tomorrow. Hopefully we'll get everything to work out in "the Plan!" I continue to check every day, but so far I haven't been able to secure an ADR for BoG. I now know I should have made it at 180 days out, but never dreamed it would be a problem for Sep. Everyone on this site says it's still possible to get one close to the date we'd like, so I'll keep trying. (Just keep swimming, just keep swimming )

With free dining, I have no doubt people have snagged several BOGs and when they start to finalize their plans, some will show up. I have seen on the Dining Reservation board where some are cancelling or moving their trip dates, and they're dropping numerous BOGs, O'Hanas, Tusker Houses, etc

 

[Odelay]

Hmmm. I'm surprised no one thinks that Disney's desire and (from what I saw myself) ability to increase crowds during the rest of the year would naturally draw down the crowds in what is a very hot time of year in Orlando.

Hmmm, the same time of year that most children aren't in school and has long been considered America's vacation time?

 

[think-like-tink]

I have nothing wise to offer up. I am a little surprised at how the crowds seem to be thin. I haven't gone yet my opinion is based off of pictures people are posting on facebook.

We have recently moved from Wyoming to Florida and traded our week long trips for shorter but more times a year since we are close. Still 7 hours away but closer than what we were. We have also traded our deluxe staying for shades of green because it lets us go more times in the year.

 

[BeerMe]

We have planned three vacations at Disney for December 2015, June 2016 (both for 12 days) and a trip for September, October and November - almost all of F&W. We are in our early 70s and decided to take all of the grandchildren to Disney one last time and then to have fun at F&W. We are still in good shape, but who knows what the future will bring. Of course we bought APs which is why we are able to go for such a long time. The first two trips were onsite visits and the long fall trip is at offsite time shares. In all our trips (over 50) we have only driven three times including the upcoming F&W trip. We noticed that crowds were lower than expected in June, but not so much in December. We will not be back until probably 2018 - for Avatar and for Star Wars/Toy Story.

Why are the crowds lower? Money of course - here, there and everywhere. Disney has also priced themselves out of the market for many. For us, money is one contributing factor but actually not that important. For us continuing health will drive our future visits. Also I am retired military and get some very, very good deals from WDW. Thanks for that.

 

[disneyseniors]

I totally agree. None of this is a result of the Brexit. Next year though? It will be interesting to watch.

Yes, we have Disney fanatic friends from London. They always book their next years trip on leaving, and pay for it before their trip. I asked if Brexit has affected them this at all. She says they will not be spending much extra money this time. I do feel that next year could be hard for them as for other Brits

 

[tink20]

We went first week of June, and it seemed more crowded and busier than the previous year at the same time.

We had fun, but by the end of the week, I was glad we were going home, and usually I'm sad.

We are taking a break from Disney next year.