Very interesting idea, that Disney is creating its own resale market where most people won't be willing to compete.
A corollary of that is that most resale buyers won't be interested in competing with Disney, so they will focus more and more on the L14 resales. This would drive down Riviera resale prices even more, because of less interest, and might make L14 resales even more valuable as time goes on, and drive up L14 resales values.
After a few years, when it becomes obvious to everyone that Disney has 'crippled' Riviera, don't you think a lot of potential buyers will take a look at Disney Direct prices and say, "No thanks!"
I think you are probably right in your estimates of Riviera Resale prices. Current resale prices run approximately 55% to 72%, depending on the resort and the size of the contract and the desirability of the property. And they will probably stay in that range. One thing is that I think that people who buy one of the L14 in the resale market today can be pretty confident that, at a minimum, the value of their property is not likely to decrease much, so if or when they go to sell their property down the road, they shouldn't lose much in value. In other words, buy the L14 and you are likely to be able to get your money back, unlike what happens when you buy Direct.
With the increasing rise and use of web information systems, more and more people are going to be looking at Resales and shying away from Direct Sales (a trend which is already happening, but will continue). So, unless Disney can come up with a way to AUGMENT the value of their property - NOT diminish resale value, but find a way to INCREASE Direct value - then they are likely to have a harder and harder time with Direct Sales in the future.
Would it be too idiotic to say that they should work to INCREASE the price of Resales, since the Resales would then be less attractive, comparatively, when high Resale prices are put up against high Direct prices?