Marathon Weekend 2020

[pclvnmcky88]

In for my first Marathon! Question - has anyone signed up for the Castaway Cay Challenge without a cruise reservation? how long do you have to put it in?

 

[disneygpa]

Marathon weekend goals:

In no particular order:
Run my first marathon
Run my first Dopey
Survive and be able to enjoy the parks
Attend DATW
Put some faces to the names on this board
HAVE FUN!!

 

[DopeyBadger]

And what was your longest run, # of long runs, length of training cycle?

For the people that I help write plans for, their longest run is 150 min (continuous runners) or 180 min (run/walk runners). I tend to only have them do that 1-3 times during the entire training cycle with usually 3-5 runs over 120 min in total. Most do a peak week of 7-8 hours, but I've done less and the runner has still been successful. I was able to find a few examples of sub-7 hours in peak training week with good outcomes.

-Had someone do 6:56 in peak week and was able to PR their Disney M by 28 min (4:26 down to 3:58). Peak LR was 16 miles (150 min).
-Had someone do 6:34 in peak week, on 4 days per week, and memory says this was a nearly 90 min PR from a previous marathon PR (don't have this one written down). Peak LR was 14 miles (150 min).
-Had someone do 6:26 in peak week and was able to move their PR from 3:54 down to 3:44 in worse environmental conditions. Peak LR was 16 miles (150 min).
-Had someone do 6:17 in peak week for Dopey and moved their M PR from 5:05 to 4:24 (both were Dopey marathons under similar conditions). Peak LR was 17 miles (180 min).
-Had someone do run/walk with a peak week of 5:26, and came very close to PR'ing their M near their projected time in over 90F temps (5:55 marathon). Peak LR was 10 miles (150 min).

The length of training plans usually varies from as little as 8 weeks to as much as 20 weeks. But it all depends on what someone has coming into the start of the training as to where we can go maximally from there safely.

If you tell me your current fitness pace, I could run some calculations on total duration of other classic training plans (Higdon, Galloway, Hansons, etc.) for you.

Fourth -(secret goal) Most calculators have me finishing at about 5:30 - 6:00 based on my 10k time. I would love to be able to get to a sub 5 hour time. but this is going to require lots of dedication!

To add another data point to your calculators:



I'd say to feel comfortable with a sub-5 M goal, you'd want to have fitness around a 1:01:30 10k or a 2:20 HM.



The aggressive value is calculated from a Riegel R of 1.06, high end is R of 1.07, low end is a R of 1.1, and average is 1.15. Per data from this review (link), a 1.15 is the 50 percentile, 1.1 is about the top 25% converters, 1.07 is top 10% converters, and 1.06 is top 6% converters. "Converters" being taking your HM time and equating it to a M finish time. The graph below shows the distribution of conversions from HM to M and the associated R value. Most online calculators use 1.06, and McMillan uses 1.07. But the reality of this data set shows that only 10% of runners (in this particular data set which is about 1000 people in Williams and 2000 people in Vickers) actually achieve even McMillan's value using a HM conversion.

 

[DerTobi75]

Goals

Finish my first Dopey healthy
Run the 5K with my Girlfriend
Do a DLS at the Half Marathon
Run the Full under 5h (maybe)
Get another / better photo with Snow White, ... Got one with her when I entered Epcot for the last miles of the Marathon in 2017, but we both looked in different cameras
Get my Medals and Bibs signed by Snow White & Dopey
Celebrating my Victory on Sunday at Storybook Dining (?)
Meet @DopeyBadger in person, missed him in 2017, I was too late at the Disboard Meeting Point

 

[DopeyBadger]

Meet @DopeyBadger in person, missed him in 2017, I was too late at the Disboard Meeting Point

I'll do my best to make sure this goal happens. I am a little quick to leave those pre-race meets. Usually there from 3:40-4:15am. But once the corral walks open is when I make my way there to get in a good starting position. But I'll be sure to be at HH on Friday and hoping to coincide our EPCOT day with DATW on Monday. So let's make sure this happens this year!

 

[michigandergirl]

Sounds like a few of us are running Chicago!

Awesome!!!

Yes! My first time running Chicago and a marathon outside of Disney

Chicago will be my 5th marathon (3rd outside Disney), but first marathon major. Maybe we can coordinate a Dis meet.

 

[dodukes]

To add another data point to your calculators:



I'd say to feel comfortable with a sub-5 M goal, you'd want to have fitness around a 1:01:30 10k or a 2:20 HM.


The aggressive value is calculated from a Riegel R of 1.06, high end is R of 1.07, low end is a R of 1.1, and average is 1.15. Per data from this review (link), a 1.15 is the 50 percentile, 1.1 is about the top 25% converters, 1.07 is top 10% converters, and 1.06 is top 6% converters. "Converters" being taking your HM time and equating it to a M finish time. The graph below shows the distribution of conversions from HM to M and the associated R value. Most online calculators use 1.06, and McMillan uses 1.07. But the reality of this data set shows that only 10% of runners (in this particular data set which is about 1000 people in Williams and 2000 people in Vickers) actually achieve even McMillan's value using a HM conversion.

Thanks. My 10k time was 1:12:34 with about 3 weeks of training. I am hoping given that I have months to train for marathon I can do at least same but I am signed up for the half marathon in November(wine and dine). My thought is that I will see how that goes for me. If I find that I do not do well (with knee and what not) I will see about changing my entry for January or I will just resign myself to mostly walking the marathon and having a good time with characters until they sweep me off. LOL
So I basically need to aim for a 2:20 or less half in November in order to have any shot at a sub 5 (and when I say that I would be ok with 4:59:59 LOL) in the marathon?

 

[NormaG]

Goals:
First-to provide enough support and encouragement to my DH to keep him going through training so he can finish Dopey. (It's his first full and only his second half at this time).
Second-have fun and finally meet some of you from disboards at DATW.

 

[rteetz]

My goals remain the same pretty much every year.

Have fun
Ride Everest
DATW
Meet and hang out with amazing people I have met here.

 

[DopeyBadger]

So I basically need to aim for a 2:20 or less half in November in order to have any shot at a sub 5 (and when I say that I would be ok with 4:59:59 LOL) in the marathon?

I wouldn't necessarily say "any shot". If you can run a HM in 2:20, then runners who have done similarly would have the following profile per their datasets:

6% of them would run the marathon in 4:52 or less
10% of them would run the marathon in 4:54 or less
25% of them would run the marathon in 5:00 or less
50% of them would run the marathon in 5:11 or less

So you'd have 1 in 4 odds, if you were able to run a 2:20 HM. The weather can easily play a role though. As W&D could be super cold and great running weather, whereas marathon day could be crazy hot/humid (or vice versa is possible as well).

In that Williams article, they looked at the trends associated with those who were better converters and how their training was designed. The conclusions were:

Conclusions

The conclusions we can draw from this:

-If HM performance is equal, women are likelier to finish with a faster M time than men.
-Runners of all abilities are capable of a 1.06 or less, and roughly the top 10% of all subgroups from 1:20 HM'ers to 2:00 HM'ers were roughly the same R value (or relative performance).
-Faster runners are better converters with a lower R overall average. Makes sense then why Rigel came up with 1.06 since the elite runners available to him would have been a similar pool to the faster runners in Williams dataset.
-Runners on the slower side of the HM performances tend to have more variability as a group because of the bad converters in their groups, not because of the lack of good converters. So more people on the slower side of HM performance training inappropriately for marathon performance.
-Roughly 5:00 to 5:30 hours per week on average for a marathon training plan is considered "typical" or "sufficient" by Williams.
-Those who run more than 5:00-5:30 hours per week are more successful at being good converters than are runners who run less than 5:00-5:30 hours per week.
-Those who do 5L around 100 barely appear different than those around lesser or higher numbers. The 5L would suggest it is lower on the predictive nature than other variables.
-Those who have 5L be a lower % of total mileage from 16 weeks tend to be the best converters. The faster runners also tend to be the ones with lower %5L values. Relying less on the long runs and more balance yields a better relative performance.
-Those who train at 40-80 seconds slower than race pace more often than not will be a good converter and have a R less than 1.15.

So a good marathon plan is:
-Over 5-5.5 hrs in duration per week on average for 16 weeks.
-Has a 5L% of 9-11%. So if you do 100 miles as 5L (or five 20 milers), then you better be doing 1000 miles in the 16 weeks of training (or 63 miles per week on average). The more you diverge from this, the worse your HM conversion becomes. Although, you can still be successful at a lower 5L like 60 miles if the 5L% is still in the 9-11% range (or 600 miles total and 38 miles per week) as long as that duration is over 5-5.5 hours for your paces.
-Has you training at roughly 40-80 seconds slower on average for the plan than marathon race pace.

 

[JulieODC]

Per usual @DopeyBadger - your answer was so super helpful. And makes 26.2 seems much more attainable - and the training much more approachable.

My fitness is decent. I did a half in February (trained on a whim when the govt shutdown happened) - and managed a 2:09:42.

Wow.

Ok.

You guys. I might be back on the marathon train. Now the question is when to register.

 

[Neon Cactus]

My goals for marathon week are:
Finish my first Dopey, preferably upright
It's my friend's first Run Disney event (10K) so get him hooked on it.
Medal pictures on Main Street
Ride Everest
Meet-ups
It will be my first time at WDW for a full week in a long time, so my goal is to enjoy the whole experience.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Per usual @DopeyBadger - your answer was so super helpful. And makes 26.2 seems much more attainable - and the training much more approachable.

My fitness is decent. I did a half in February (trained on a whim when the govt shutdown happened) - and managed a 2:09:42.

So I used the following pace scheme:



Hansons Advanced Peak Week - 11:41 hours
Hansons Beginner Peak Week - 10:30 hours
Higdon Advanced 2 Peak Week - 9:05 hours
Galloway 3 day plan with 30min+30min+26 miles - 6:18 hours
Galloway split, 4 day plan with 30+30+90+180 - 5:22 hours

If you've got other plans you're considering let me know and I can run the numbers on those as well. Those are just the 5 that I've already coded for a separate thought experiment related to training load calculations.

 

[baxter24]

Goals for marathon weekend are the same as they have been before for me.

Main goal is to complete Dopey healthy and happy! Majority of character stops will be during the 10k and full. A good friend from college is doing the 5k and half with me. This will be her first half so the goal is to get her across the finish line. We will for sure stop for a pic at the castle but the rest will depend on how she is doing. My good friend and neighbor is coming down and doing the 10k too. Doubt we will run together but will be cool to hang with before the race.

 

[dodukes]

I wouldn't necessarily say "any shot". If you can run a HM in 2:20, then runners who have done similarly would have the following profile per their datasets:

6% of them would run the marathon in 4:52 or less
10% of them would run the marathon in 4:54 or less
25% of them would run the marathon in 5:00 or less
50% of them would run the marathon in 5:11 or less

So you'd have 1 in 4 odds, if you were able to run a 2:20 HM. The weather can easily play a role though. As W&D could be super cold and great running weather, whereas marathon day could be crazy hot/humid (or vice versa is possible as well).

In that Williams article, they looked at the trends associated with those who were better converters and how their training was designed. The conclusions were:

Conclusions

The conclusions we can draw from this:

-If HM performance is equal, women are likelier to finish with a faster M time than men.
-Runners of all abilities are capable of a 1.06 or less, and roughly the top 10% of all subgroups from 1:20 HM'ers to 2:00 HM'ers were roughly the same R value (or relative performance).
-Faster runners are better converters with a lower R overall average. Makes sense then why Rigel came up with 1.06 since the elite runners available to him would have been a similar pool to the faster runners in Williams dataset.
-Runners on the slower side of the HM performances tend to have more variability as a group because of the bad converters in their groups, not because of the lack of good converters. So more people on the slower side of HM performance training inappropriately for marathon performance.
-Roughly 5:00 to 5:30 hours per week on average for a marathon training plan is considered "typical" or "sufficient" by Williams.
-Those who run more than 5:00-5:30 hours per week are more successful at being good converters than are runners who run less than 5:00-5:30 hours per week.
-Those who do 5L around 100 barely appear different than those around lesser or higher numbers. The 5L would suggest it is lower on the predictive nature than other variables.
-Those who have 5L be a lower % of total mileage from 16 weeks tend to be the best converters. The faster runners also tend to be the ones with lower %5L values. Relying less on the long runs and more balance yields a better relative performance.
-Those who train at 40-80 seconds slower than race pace more often than not will be a good converter and have a R less than 1.15.

So a good marathon plan is:
-Over 5-5.5 hrs in duration per week on average for 16 weeks.
-Has a 5L% of 9-11%. So if you do 100 miles as 5L (or five 20 milers), then you better be doing 1000 miles in the 16 weeks of training (or 63 miles per week on average). The more you diverge from this, the worse your HM conversion becomes. Although, you can still be successful at a lower 5L like 60 miles if the 5L% is still in the 9-11% range (or 600 miles total and 38 miles per week) as long as that duration is over 5-5.5 hours for your paces.
-Has you training at roughly 40-80 seconds slower on average for the plan than marathon race pace.

Wow, OK I had to re-read that a couple times. As far as the weather, I'm from south florida, the hotter and more humid, the better. I am very used to that and it doesn't give me any anxiety. Cold on the other hand and yeah, I'm concerned it will be too cold for me in January. My two "longish" runs in the last month have been almost at Noon with no problems. (eta: plus I have asthma so in the cold i don't breathe as well)
As for the average per week. I feel like I have A LOT of catching up to do 63 miles per week? I am not hitting 38 miles per week now, I've been usually doing 4.5 miles 2x to 3x a week. I assume I can build up from this but I am trying to take it slow. So I need to aim to run for 5-5:30 hours per week then? I'm sorry if this is a stupid question but what is 5L?
Right now on the treadmill mornings I am doing 60 minutes and can comfortably do about 4.31 to 4.5 miles. I have the treadmill set to jog 3.5 and run 5.2 speed. I feel comfy at that running speed and it appears that on average its the same pace i kept at the 10k, although I was a bit faster from excitement/adrenaline etc. I have been doing run/walk but not at any set interval, meaning I'll start out slower like 2/1 then i'll go to 4/1 or 5/1. So perhaps I need to stick with on kind and just try the full 60 minutes like that?

Perhaps I will re-arrange my secret goal to just being able to finish!! LOL

 

[IamTrike]

Marathon Weekend Goals

I've done this the last couple years and thought it was a good experience. Full disclosure this time (in 2016 I was sneaky), I am saving your responses to be revealed at a later time closer to race day.

Now that registration is out of the way for most of us, I'd love to hear your goals for Marathon Weekend. Here's how I see goals. They're personal. You chose it because that goal means something to you. It's important to you. Which means your goal is important to me. No goal is too big or too small. The person's goal to finish their first 5K and another's to take down Michael Wardian's Dopey World Record are equally important to me. So, I'd love to hear yours. And yes, even the super secret I don't want to admit it goals.

Here are some ideas if you haven't thought about it:

Finish my first: 5K, 10K, Half, Full, Goofy, Dopey
Finish with a time goal
Run a race with a family member
Overcome an adversity in your life
Drink a beer or margarita at a certain mile marker
Participate in DATW (Drinking Around the World) *Happens on Monday in EPCOT (ask @FFigawi and @Keels about it)
Beat a family member
Get as many character photos as possible
Get a character photo with a certain character
Do lots of park time and enjoy the races
Have fun

So, let's hear them! What's your goal? Remember yesterday (or a few weeks ago) you signed up for a race during marathon weekend for a reason, so what is it?

So I signed up for Goofy.
1. Goal will be to run the half with DS/Take it very slow and get lots of pictures.
2. Go back an successfully complete the training I've lined up for the race. (I have two of your plans that I am tweaking based on current fitness level, but am starting with a 6 week hr based plan on my treadmill)
3. Run the Marathon Hard. I haven't run an A marathon race in a long time. Since my Dapper buddies won't be there I've decided to train to run hard at Disney. Goal is a 3:30 full and stretch goal is 3:20.

 

[dodukes]

So I signed up for Goofy.
1. Goal will be to run the half with DS/Take it very slow and get lots of pictures.
2. Go back an successfully complete the training I've lined up for the race. (I have two of your plans that I am tweaking based on current fitness level, but am starting with a 6 week hr based plan on my treadmill)
3. Run the Marathon Hard. I haven't run an A marathon race in a long time. Since my Dapper buddies won't be there I've decided to train to run hard at Disney. Goal is a 3:30 full and stretch goal is 3:20.

I have a question for you. Do you do most of your training on a treadmill? I only ask because I will have to do the majority of mine on one and from what I read it's not advisable but it's the best I can do. So was wondering if there are others like me with more than 75% of running on treadmill.

 

[Mickey Momma]

Goals:
More likely, doing "just" the marathon or Goofy after this.

"Just" the marathon is such a Disney thing. I have already said it multiple times since I ran Dopey in 2018. At this point I am seriously thinking about putting it on a tank for the race.

Apologies if this has been discussed before, but if someone were in the fence about signing up for their first marathon....what training plans did you all use? And what was your longest run, # of long runs, length of training cycle?

I’ve got some big work stuff, so was hesitant to add marathon training to that.....but #FOMO.

I have used Hal Higdon and a now defunct heart rate training plan from the Train Like a Mother Club. Even though Higdon plans go to 20 miles, I think I made it to 16 miles in 2014 and 18 miles in 2016. The heart rate plan was based on time on my feet rather than specific long run mileage. I used it for Dopey training for 2018 and the longest run I did ended up being around 17 miles, though it was preceded by a 4 1/2 mile the day before. I finished both marathons and all the races in Dopey without an issue.

My recommendation, for what it's worth, is to look for a plan that gives you the long run in minutes rather than miles AND has you running the day before your long run. Two reasons for this: 1) I find it easier to plan for a set amount of time into my running schedule, especially during the busy season. 2) A plan that has you running the day before your long run almost guarantees that you will be running on tired legs the next day and that can help mentally during the second half of the marathon.

Me too!

Awesome!!!

Chicago will be my 5th marathon (3rd outside Disney), but first marathon major. Maybe we can coordinate a Dis meet.

Is that six of us so far?

 

[DopeyBadger]

Wow, OK I had to re-read that a couple times. As far as the weather, I'm from south florida, the hotter and more humid, the better. I am very used to that and it doesn't give me any anxiety. Cold on the other hand and yeah, I'm concerned it will be too cold for me in January. My two "longish" runs in the last month have been almost at Noon with no problems. (eta: plus I have asthma so in the cold i don't breathe as well)

Ah, alright that make sense. The marathon has seen a wide range of temps in just the last few years, so who knows what will end up like. I really like it best because since it starts so early it means a majority of the race with me is before the sun rises and thus guaranteed to not be in the sun.

As for the average per week. I feel like I have A LOT of catching up to do 63 miles per week? I am not hitting 38 miles per week now, I've been usually doing 4.5 miles 2x to 3x a week. I assume I can build up from this but I am trying to take it slow. So I need to aim to run for 5-5:30 hours per week then? I'm sorry if this is a stupid question but what is 5L?
Right now on the treadmill mornings I am doing 60 minutes and can comfortably do about 4.31 to 4.5 miles. I have the treadmill set to jog 3.5 and run 5.2 speed. I feel comfy at that running speed and it appears that on average its the same pace i kept at the 10k, although I was a bit faster from excitement/adrenaline etc. I have been doing run/walk but not at any set interval, meaning I'll start out slower like 2/1 then i'll go to 4/1 or 5/1. So perhaps I need to stick with on kind and just try the full 60 minutes like that?

Perhaps I will re-arrange my secret goal to just being able to finish!! LOL

So I think there's definitely some confusion based on those conclusions. That was a very brief summary of the much more in-depth and explained review I did here:

Ian Williams: An Updated Race Equivalency Calculator Attempt

So read that one and it may answer some of your questions. But to address the immediate concern, no, you don't need to be doing 63 miles per week. That value in their conclusions comes from this statement:

-Has a 5L% of 9-11%. So if you do 100 miles as 5L (or five 20 milers), then you better be doing 1000 miles in the 16 weeks of training (or 63 miles per week on average). The more you diverge from this, the worse your HM conversion becomes. Although, you can still be successful at a lower 5L like 60 miles if the 5L% is still in the 9-11% range (or 600 miles total and 38 miles per week) as long as that duration is over 5-5.5 hours for your paces.

"5L" is your 5 longest runs in the entire 16 weeks leading up to the marathon. So let's say you did a classic 3x 20 miler, a 19 miler, and 18 miler. That means your 5 longest runs are 20+20+20+19+18 = 97 miles. The data they generated suggested that those who are the best converters are those who have a 5L as a percentage of the total training done during the 16 weeks around 9-11%. So essentially, how much of your total training you did in the 16 weeks leading up to the marathon was encompassed in those 5 longest training runs?

Let's say you did 600 miles in those 16 weeks. That would come out to 37.5 miles per week (600/16=37.5). Then the 5L of 97 miles (from the classic 3x 20 miler, a 19 miler, and 18 miler) divided by 600 miles total in training is 16% (97/600=16%). Their data suggested that 9-11% was optimal for conversion, and thus 16% would be outside that range. So let's say you were dead-set on getting in those 3x 20 milers, 19 miler, and 18 miler. How many miles in 16 weeks would it take to get it to fall in the 9-11% range of the totality of training?

97/0.09 = 1077 miles; Over 16 weeks that would be an average of 67.3 miles per week
97/0.11 = 881.8 miles; Over 16 weeks that would be an average of 55 miles per week

What's the punchline of this particular conclusion? Don't focus on the long run. Focus on balance throughout the entire week and training plan.

My school of thought is use current fitness relative pacing and duration of workouts to determine what to do on each day of a training plan. The mileage of a training plan is simply a function of those two variables.

You recently ran a 10k at 1:12:34. For the sake of argument, let's say that race is reflective of your current fitness level. Here is a race equivalency chart:



Here are training continuous runner training paces for someone at that fitness profile:



Approximately 80% of all training would be at a 13:53 min/mile or slower (roughly 50% at 14:16 min/mile or slower). That would be about a 4.3 mph on a treadmill.



For someone who run/walks, this would be my suggested starting point for run/walk durations and pacing. These are based on your 3.5 mph jog pace referenced earlier, although I tend to suggest what feels like a comfortable walk instead. In the case of run/walk, about 80% of training would be at Easy/LR.

So using these paces, to get to 5.5 hours of training would be about 23 miles per week. A peak LR at 150 would be 10.8 miles for continuous runner or 12.2 miles for run/walker.

 

[michigandergirl]

Is that six of us so far?

Yes!! I must've missed @Princess KP earlier.