bookwormde
<font color=darkorchid>Heading out now, another ad
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2008
5/19 update
number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160% of average
number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160% of average
How many points do you normally own to rent out a year, I wonder If this a good time to do thisOkay, this is just a theory, but I've been buying/selling DVC for 25 years...I believe there are sellers out there who own multiple contracts (I mean LOTS of contracts) who have been stripping them. They are renting and/or transferring points for profit which is fine. I've purchased loaded contracts to rent and use and then flip, but this is an entirely different category of owner since the covid19 thing ramped up.
In theory, a stripped contract should be worth IMO about $5-6 less PP. For example, you can rent a point for $15 and after paying MF's net about $7 before paying income taxes. Current list prices don't seem to be random within a range of prices and almost all the contracts seem to be completely stripped - evenly down to zero. I don't see this as normal seller listings.
When buying a contract - say a 100 point contract at $100 PP with two years past, current and next year's points to me anyway, is worth so much more. I will rent 200 points at $15 and make 3K to offset purchase price - or $30 less net per point. I negotiate so I don't pay MF's on those two years. A stripped contract has no value to me. Long winded, but let me know if I totally missed the point!
150 point contract will cost more per point than a 200 point contract. I recently pulled the trigger for VGF at 148 for 200, with current year points. I would not buy a stripped contract.Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?
Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?
I just rent excess points. I did have four rentals last year and have two pending later this year and into next. I will only rent privately from now on. Some years we don't rent at all and we'll likely upgrade our villa or stay longer. It's not a moneymaker, I just hate to lose points.How many points do you normally own to rent out a year, I wonder If this a good time to do this
I can't believe it, but I agree with you - I hope your wife forgives me! Prices certainly won't go up for a long time and ROFR will likely be on hold for quite some time too. No one really knows, but I'm waiting to buy again.Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?
When you find the person with the crystal ball, will you let me know what they say?Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?
Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?
I pulled the trigger on a 'perfect' contract, despite knowing that it could go down a little more in the next 6 months or so because of I hope to slide through ROFR. We are not financing and it doesn't pose a significant drain of resources in the grand scheme of things (thanks to cancelled vacations this year, and we are buying at a cheaper resort). Unless it drops by $10-$15 per point, it's not worth waiting. If your savings is significant, it's worth waiting for. But only you would know your risk tolerance. We missed a contract earlier because my spouse wanted a lower price, but the one we found and bought, was priced better. But he did get evil eyeball from me for a few days. But if we don't pass ROFR (still waiting on that), he will get more evil eyeball from me because it took a few more weeks to find something similar. But in the grand scheme of things, if it gets taken, I would take it as not meant to be and save our resources for other household projects. So, what is your evil eyeball tolerance? Ha-ha. Or, "Remember that time when I was right as usual and you didn't listen" tolerance? Yes, my spouse thinks I'm a barrel of laughs.Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?
1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?
I completely agree with you.... I found a contract I’m interested in but I just can’t let myself buy it until I know more about what is going to happen with Disney and the world in general in the short and long term.I'm also looking into VGF. Problem is, I'm not sure I want to go to Disney at all if there are no pools, no restaurants, masks, and so on. And I'm not the only one thinking that. Disney knows more than we do about how where their operation is going. To me, ROFR would indicate time to buy.
Same here. We are ready to buy more points but so unsure whats going on. We are only planning on using them next summer or maybe this november over thanksgiving but who knows what's going to happen really.I completely agree with you.... I found a contract I’m interested in but I just can’t let myself buy it until I know more about what is going to happen with Disney and the world in general in the short and long term.
3X listings?5/20 update
number of newly posted resale contracts at about 250-320% of average*
* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.
When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted
It is possible that VGF goes down to $130. The problem is, if it does go down to $130 it will be because there is a long term shutdown at Disney with no clear end in sight. Or it could mean a series of startups and shutdowns that are unpredictable as cases of corona virus spike up. To put it another way, if the price goes to $130, it would mean that the true value is somewhere between $75 and $200, and the standard deviation is large and unstable.Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?
The only two resorts that I’ve seen people complaining over lack of inventory are VGC, which is normal, and AKL, which does seem abnormal. But I don’t believe that prices are going upward. If this broker was the only game in town, perhaps they would be right. But there are lots of other brokers, and from what I have seen, the listing prices can vary significantly between brokers.We just put a bid in and had it refused with a seller significantly higher than what we were prepared to pay. Broker said this, as I think they are getting annoyed with our lowball offers...
We continue to see prices move upwards as inventory is being steadily depleted. We had 520 active listings for sale on March 1st compared to only 281 today as strong buying activity currently outpaces new listings coming to market shrinking supply.