Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[RoseGold]

Broker said this, as I think they are getting annoyed with our lowball offers...

We continue to see prices move upwards as inventory is being steadily depleted. We had 520 active listings for sale on March 1st compared to only 281 today as strong buying activity currently outpaces new listings coming to market shrinking supply.

LOL, good one. HAHAHA "strong buying activity" ??!!??!! Parks closed, no idea when they will open... DVC still cancelling week by week... You let me know what happens to prices when these resorts open at 25% pool capacity and you have to keep a mask on your five year old. But sure, prices are going up. Whatever you say.

Brokers have a duty to convey your offer. That would literally be my response to that email.

If the seller doesn't take it, fine. I'm not in a hurry, I can tell you that.

 

[EM Lawrence]

It is possible that VGF goes down to $130. The problem is, if it does go down to $130 it will be because there is a long term shutdown at Disney with no clear end in sight. Or it could mean a series of startups and shutdowns that are unpredictable as cases of corona virus spike up. To put it another way, if the price goes to $130, it would mean that the true value is somewhere between $75 and $200, and the standard deviation is large and unstable.

So you will still have the conundrum of buying at $130, when if you wait a little bit, you could get it at $75, but you could also miss the boat while it goes back to $200. If we knew what was going to happen, the decision would be easy.

Maybe the best way to think about it is to consider that over the long term, VGF prices at $175 to $200. But over the next 2-3 years, there is a significant risk that you will not be able to use your points. So the value of the first 3 years of visits to VGF, which is a significant part of the purchase price, is in doubt. Hence the discount you get for buying right now.

If I was in your shoes and I knew I wanted VGF, and I could pay cash, and I could live with the fact that I might not get to use the points for 2-3 years, I might buy at the current price. The pricing reflects the risk, and there is an upside if a vaccine is developed in record time.

In my case, I am "long" on VGF points (almost 500), so I do not really need any more, but if the price dipped significantly, say in the $100 range, I would buy some just so we could go more often or have access to the GVs.

I would keep my eyes firmly on the horizon and make the decision that is best for my family.

The price decreases could be because WDW shuts down on a rolling basis, or they could be created by a market where there is a strong motivation to sell and few people motivated to buy. The downturn of the economy could produce that without WDW having to suffer any particular distress. I think either scenario is very likely at this point, and will push prices downward regardless. BUT, I still think if the right contract for the right price comes along now, it can be a good idea to go ahead and bite. You make a very good point about waiting until prices hit $130 and then having the same dilemma you have now: will they go even lower?

 

[CastAStone]

The only two resorts that I’ve seen people complaining over lack of inventory are VGC, which is normal, and AKL, which does seem abnormal. But I don’t believe that prices are going upward. If this broker was the only game in town, perhaps they would be right. But there are lots of other brokers, and from what I have seen, the listing prices can vary significantly between brokers.

*Edited to add, if this is the broker I think it is, I do think they have successfully convinced people to pay higher prices for Poly. Most of their sub-200 point contracts at Poly sell almost instantly, and they are priced at the same point they were in early March. This particular broker spent several months pushing Poly as the best deal going, and I think they have succeeded in creating a strong demand for it. *

That broker has only 2 AKV contracts but The Timeshare Store has a dozen active listings.

 

[MICKIMINI]

The only two resorts that I’ve seen people complaining over lack of inventory are VGC, which is normal, and AKL, which does seem abnormal. But I don’t believe that prices are going upward. If this broker was the only game in town, perhaps they would be right. But there are lots of other brokers, and from what I have seen, the listing prices can vary significantly between brokers.

*Edited to add, if this is the broker I think it is, I do think they have successfully convinced people to pay higher prices for Poly. Most of their sub-200 point contracts at Poly sell almost instantly, and they are priced at the same point they were in early March. This particular broker spent several months pushing Poly as the best deal going, and I think they have succeeded in creating a strong demand for it. *

Agreed. Another broker I am friendly with feels $120's is where it is at right now.

 

[bookwormde]

3X listings?
Any significant price drops??

Nothing I noticed, some were even a little higher

 

[RaymOOOnd]

Disney will probably excel at the reopening process relative to other entertainment venues, as they excel at most other things.
If anything, it may become harder and harder to secure reservations at the resorts owing to the need to limit park attendance and occupancy, etc, which would make guaranteed vacations i.e. those afforded by a DVC membership more valuable than ever.
Sorry to all those who are still hoping for some dramatic resale price crash. I don't see it happening.

Even if I'm objectively wrong, a DVC purchase is 90% emotional and 10% objective/rational... which will keep prices high.

 

[Ice Cream Man]

5/20 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 250-320% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted

Any advice on where a Noob could find the aggregating site you follow?

 

[CastAStone]

Any advice on where a Noob could find the aggregating site you follow?

We’re not allowed to post about it or help people find it here as that site has been banned from Disboards.

 

[Ice Cream Man]

We’re not allowed to post about it or help people find it here as that site has been banned from Disboards.

Now I am intrigued, I must double my efforts to find it. Thanks.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Now I am intrigued, I must double my efforts to find it. Thanks.

lol - it's really not that intriguing.

 

[JETSDAD]

The only site I've seen that shows from multiple companies only seemed to show 2 companies' listings, most of which were the sponsoring company. Unless there is another one that I'm missing.

 

[bookwormde]

5/21 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220-290% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted

 

[CookieandOatmeal]

My unicorn contract came up yesterday night...70pt, Dec UY at BLT but I hesitated because my husband was asleep and I didn't want to make a big purchase like this without talking to him. Knew it was risky and that it would probably be gone in the morning but I sent him a screenshot anyways. The baby woke us up at 3:30 this morning and my husband asked if that was the contract I've been looking for and when I said yes, he said to make an offer then. Of course it already had an offer accepted! Rookie mistake for sure but at least I now have a prior-authorization to make an offer next time. Guess that will come in another 8 months lol. My hubs does think with the current economy, I might not have to wait as long to see another 70pt, Dec UY BLT contract...guess we'll see!

 

[mamaofsix]

Disney will probably excel at the reopening process relative to other entertainment venues, as they excel at most other things.
If anything, it may become harder and harder to secure reservations at the resorts owing to the need to limit park attendance and occupancy, etc, which would make guaranteed vacations i.e. those afforded by a DVC membership more valuable than ever.
Sorry to all those who are still hoping for some dramatic resale price crash. I don't see it happening.

Even if I'm objectively wrong, a DVC purchase is 90% emotional and 10% objective/rational... which will keep prices high.

With regards to resale prices, I don't think it really matters how much Disney excels at the reopening process or how many reservations are made or what attendance is. What matters is the economy - how many people lose their jobs and have to sell their contracts. What matters in ROFR is Disney's financial state, which is grave.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[MICKIMINI]

My unicorn contract came up yesterday night...70pt, Dec UY at BLT but I hesitated because my husband was asleep and I didn't want to make a big purchase like this without talking to him. Knew it was risky and that it would probably be gone in the morning but I sent him a screenshot anyways. The baby woke us up at 3:30 this morning and my husband asked if that was the contract I've been looking for and when I said yes, he said to make an offer then. Of course it already had an offer accepted! Rookie mistake for sure but at least I now have a prior-authorization to make an offer next time. Guess that will come in another 8 months lol. My hubs does think with the current economy, I might not have to wait as long to see another 70pt, Dec UY BLT contract...guess we'll see!

What a heartbreak! Lesson learned - negotiate before the dream contract comes up...hopefully you'll get another with a better price.

 

[stitchsnk]

Just wanted to chime in and say I've been lurking for a while and really holding out for the next couple of months...we are set on PVB and a sweet spot of 110-150 points with a UY of June, Aug, or Sept. Thank you for all of your information and research you do! We've been renting DVC points for a few years now, and even rented for our January 2021 trip. It's due time to just close our eyes and hit send on an offer!

 

[MamaBear12]

What a heartbreak! Lesson learned - negotiate before the dream contract comes up...hopefully you'll get another with a better price.

My unicorn contract came up yesterday night...70pt, Dec UY at BLT but I hesitated because my husband was asleep and I didn't want to make a big purchase like this without talking to him. Knew it was risky and that it would probably be gone in the morning but I sent him a screenshot anyways. The baby woke us up at 3:30 this morning and my husband asked if that was the contract I've been looking for and when I said yes, he said to make an offer then. Of course it already had an offer accepted! Rookie mistake for sure but at least I now have a prior-authorization to make an offer next time. Guess that will come in another 8 months lol. My hubs does think with the current economy, I might not have to wait as long to see another 70pt, Dec UY BLT contract...guess we'll see!

Thanks for the reminder that I need to sit down with DH to finalize a budget and what not so I can put in an offer when I find a contract at the right price! We’re not looking for a unicorn point/UY wise at least...

 

[CookieandOatmeal]

What a heartbreak! Lesson learned - negotiate before the dream contract comes up...hopefully you'll get another with a better price.

Definitely lesson learned! We're so used to buying direct where we just call up and say we want X number of points, here is our credit card. Last contract we saw that was in the 70s at BLT for Dec UY was last August but back then, we were definitely not ready to take the plunge and add on. This contract was $155/pt which was okay since it had some 2019 banked points. Hoping for something lower next time we see another unicorn!

Thanks for the reminder that I need to sit down with DH to finalize budget and what not so I can put in offer when I find a contract at the right price! We’re not looking for a unicorn point/UY wise at least...

Yes! Definitely have the agreement with the spouse beforehand. We have plenty of banked Poly points right now due to Covid-19 so I don't need the BLT contract NOW so that does make me feel a tad better lol.

 

[Jelly563]

I spent Jan, Feb & some of March trying to buy VGF. ALL of the contracts were $180 or higher, I offered between $170-175 and was repeatedly declined or laughed at. As soon as I found a contract at $170, they dipped to $159. So if you think u can get VGF in the $130's you should ride the unicorn.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Just wanted to chime in and say I've been lurking for a while and really holding out for the next couple of months...we are set on PVB and a sweet spot of 110-150 points with a UY of June, Aug, or Sept. Thank you for all of your information and research you do! We've been renting DVC points for a few years now, and even rented for our January 2021 trip. It's due time to just close our eyes and hit send on an offer!

This is like a therapy website for DVC folks. Welcome to the DVC family - if you have questions, just ask!