Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

5/19 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160% of average

 

[PlutosPetDog]

Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.

Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?

 

[ElizabethS22]

Okay, this is just a theory, but I've been buying/selling DVC for 25 years...I believe there are sellers out there who own multiple contracts (I mean LOTS of contracts) who have been stripping them. They are renting and/or transferring points for profit which is fine. I've purchased loaded contracts to rent and use and then flip, but this is an entirely different category of owner since the covid19 thing ramped up.

In theory, a stripped contract should be worth IMO about $5-6 less PP. For example, you can rent a point for $15 and after paying MF's net about $7 before paying income taxes. Current list prices don't seem to be random within a range of prices and almost all the contracts seem to be completely stripped - evenly down to zero. I don't see this as normal seller listings.

When buying a contract - say a 100 point contract at $100 PP with two years past, current and next year's points to me anyway, is worth so much more. I will rent 200 points at $15 and make 3K to offset purchase price - or $30 less net per point. I negotiate so I don't pay MF's on those two years. A stripped contract has no value to me. Long winded, but let me know if I totally missed the point!

How many points do you normally own to rent out a year, I wonder If this a good time to do this

 

[ElizabethS22]

Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.

Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?

150 point contract will cost more per point than a 200 point contract. I recently pulled the trigger for VGF at 148 for 200, with current year points. I would not buy a stripped contract.

 

[wnielsen1]

Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.

Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?

Purely speculative, but if Disney restarts ROFR, I would think VGF would be the resort to start with. If my wife ever greenlights a VGF purchase, I'm doing it immediately before she changes her mind.

 

[MICKIMINI]

How many points do you normally own to rent out a year, I wonder If this a good time to do this

I just rent excess points. I did have four rentals last year and have two pending later this year and into next. I will only rent privately from now on. Some years we don't rent at all and we'll likely upgrade our villa or stay longer. It's not a moneymaker, I just hate to lose points.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.

Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?

I can't believe it, but I agree with you - I hope your wife forgives me! Prices certainly won't go up for a long time and ROFR will likely be on hold for quite some time too. No one really knows, but I'm waiting to buy again.

 

[EM Lawrence]

Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.

Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?

When you find the person with the crystal ball, will you let me know what they say?

 

[Toonses]

Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.

Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?

Nobody can truly tell for certain, but I suspect rofr will prob be paused through this quarter, and maybe longer depending on what profits look like and when the parks open. Last earnings report wasn’t good and they had to pause stock dividends. The next will be worse since more of the shutdown will show on that one. I think anyplace they can conserve cash for the short term, they will. However I absolutely could be wrong.

My suggestion is to do what will preserve harmony in the house. If that means purchasing sooner, rather than later and the prices do go down, consider the difference to be the price of your peace of mind and lessening of stress while still knowing you got a deal.

 

[holyrita]

The reason I decided to act now instead of waiting a few more months is we never know when Disney will start acting on ROFR again. I don't doubt prices could continue to go down, but I feel like ROFR could start again out of the blue.

Also, the ROFR process has been growing longer over the last month and is now taking at least 4 weeks to hear back. Who knows how long the wait could grow to. You might find a great deal in 2-3 months, wind up waiting a month or more for ROFR, and Disney could start taking contracts at any point

And if I'm completely wrong I'll probably snag another contract Addonitis.. before even hearing back on my first contract, currently in ROFR!

 

[holyrita]

Also, looks like DVC Resale Market is adding a bunch of contracts tonight. I just got 6 push notifications for Sept UY contracts in the last few hours.

 

[dulyon]

Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.

Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?

I pulled the trigger on a 'perfect' contract, despite knowing that it could go down a little more in the next 6 months or so because of I hope to slide through ROFR. We are not financing and it doesn't pose a significant drain of resources in the grand scheme of things (thanks to cancelled vacations this year, and we are buying at a cheaper resort). Unless it drops by $10-$15 per point, it's not worth waiting. If your savings is significant, it's worth waiting for. But only you would know your risk tolerance. We missed a contract earlier because my spouse wanted a lower price, but the one we found and bought, was priced better. But he did get evil eyeball from me for a few days. But if we don't pass ROFR (still waiting on that), he will get more evil eyeball from me because it took a few more weeks to find something similar. But in the grand scheme of things, if it gets taken, I would take it as not meant to be and save our resources for other household projects. So, what is your evil eyeball tolerance? Ha-ha. Or, "Remember that time when I was right as usual and you didn't listen" tolerance? Yes, my spouse thinks I'm a barrel of laughs.

 

[bookwormde]

5/20 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 250-320% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted

 

[RoseGold]

1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?

I'm also looking into VGF. Problem is, I'm not sure I want to go to Disney at all if there are no pools, no restaurants, masks, and so on. And I'm not the only one thinking that. Disney knows more than we do about how where their operation is going. To me, ROFR would indicate time to buy.

 

[TinkB278]

I'm also looking into VGF. Problem is, I'm not sure I want to go to Disney at all if there are no pools, no restaurants, masks, and so on. And I'm not the only one thinking that. Disney knows more than we do about how where their operation is going. To me, ROFR would indicate time to buy.

I completely agree with you.... I found a contract I’m interested in but I just can’t let myself buy it until I know more about what is going to happen with Disney and the world in general in the short and long term.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

I completely agree with you.... I found a contract I’m interested in but I just can’t let myself buy it until I know more about what is going to happen with Disney and the world in general in the short and long term.

Same here. We are ready to buy more points but so unsure whats going on. We are only planning on using them next summer or maybe this november over thanksgiving but who knows what's going to happen really.

 

[E2ME2]

5/20 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 250-320% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted

3X listings?
Any significant price drops??

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.

Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?

It is possible that VGF goes down to $130. The problem is, if it does go down to $130 it will be because there is a long term shutdown at Disney with no clear end in sight. Or it could mean a series of startups and shutdowns that are unpredictable as cases of corona virus spike up. To put it another way, if the price goes to $130, it would mean that the true value is somewhere between $75 and $200, and the standard deviation is large and unstable.

So you will still have the conundrum of buying at $130, when if you wait a little bit, you could get it at $75, but you could also miss the boat while it goes back to $200. If we knew what was going to happen, the decision would be easy.

Maybe the best way to think about it is to consider that over the long term, VGF prices at $175 to $200. But over the next 2-3 years, there is a significant risk that you will not be able to use your points. So the value of the first 3 years of visits to VGF, which is a significant part of the purchase price, is in doubt. Hence the discount you get for buying right now.

If I was in your shoes and I knew I wanted VGF, and I could pay cash, and I could live with the fact that I might not get to use the points for 2-3 years, I might buy at the current price. The pricing reflects the risk, and there is an upside if a vaccine is developed in record time.

In my case, I am "long" on VGF points (almost 500), so I do not really need any more, but if the price dipped significantly, say in the $100 range, I would buy some just so we could go more often or have access to the GVs.

I would keep my eyes firmly on the horizon and make the decision that is best for my family.

 

[Jaguar Skills]

We just put a bid in and had it refused with a seller significantly higher than what we were prepared to pay. Broker said this, as I think they are getting annoyed with our lowball offers...

We continue to see prices move upwards as inventory is being steadily depleted. We had 520 active listings for sale on March 1st compared to only 281 today as strong buying activity currently outpaces new listings coming to market shrinking supply.

 

[EM Lawrence]

We just put a bid in and had it refused with a seller significantly higher than what we were prepared to pay. Broker said this, as I think they are getting annoyed with our lowball offers...

We continue to see prices move upwards as inventory is being steadily depleted. We had 520 active listings for sale on March 1st compared to only 281 today as strong buying activity currently outpaces new listings coming to market shrinking supply.

The only two resorts that I’ve seen people complaining over lack of inventory are VGC, which is normal, and AKL, which does seem abnormal. But I don’t believe that prices are going upward. If this broker was the only game in town, perhaps they would be right. But there are lots of other brokers, and from what I have seen, the listing prices can vary significantly between brokers.

*Edited to add, if this is the broker I think it is, I do think they have successfully convinced people to pay higher prices for Poly. Most of their sub-200 point contracts at Poly sell almost instantly, and they are priced at the same point they were in early March. This particular broker spent several months pushing Poly as the best deal going, and I think they have succeeded in creating a strong demand for it. *