Riviera 50 pointer cleared ROFR at $121

[DVCsloth]

If I purchased Riv resale wouldn't mind only being able to stay there, what would bother me is if I needed to cancel after the 7 months what would be left. This resort is obviously going to book very early.

 

[sethschroeder]

This resort is obviously going to book very early.

There is not a guarantee it will and long term might actually be easier to get since everyone buying resale would be locked out. Even people with 125 direct at BLT and 300 resale for instance might skip the resort because they don't want split stays.

It is a risk though for sure to not have SSR, AKV, or OKW as fall backs.

 

[DougEMG]

There is not a guarantee it will and long term might actually be easier to get since everyone buying resale would be locked out. Even people with 125 direct at BLT and 300 resale for instance might skip the resort because they don't want split stays.

It is a risk though for sure to not have SSR, AKV, or OKW as fall backs.

I actually think it will be the opposite, as more RIV owners become resale that they will be forced to book early making availability harder. The supply of direct owners and grandfathered in owners at the O14 are huge in comparison.

 

[sethschroeder]

I actually think it will be the opposite, as more RIV owners become resale that they will be forced to book early making availability harder. The supply of direct owners and grandfathered in owners at the O14 are huge in comparison.

Except you are not talking about things booking early the next few years we are talking about 10+ years down the road. Which based on estimates will have roughly 10% of all DVC points flip over and be removed from being able to book at RIV.

I am not expecting RIV to substantially turn over faster than any other resort in addition if value is depressed you might see more people keeping RIV opting to sell off their OKW/SSR contracts first.

Yes its something to be aware of but it's a guess I don't think is a guarantee and there is an argument to it being really no different than any other park attached resort. As outlined what you are losing is the SSR, OKW, AKV safety net.

 

[DVCsloth]

Except you are not talking about things booking early the next few years we are talking about 10+ years down the road. Which based on estimates will have roughly 10% of all DVC points flip over and be removed from being able to book at RIV.

I am not expecting RIV to substantially turn over faster than any other resort in addition if value is depressed you might see more people keeping RIV opting to sell off their OKW/SSR contracts first.

Yes its something to be aware of but it's a guess I don't think is a guarantee and there is an argument to it being really no different than any other park attached resort. As outlined what you are losing is the SSR, OKW, AKV safety net.

I'm thinking Riviera resale if you don't book 11-7 months out you have a pretty good chance of getting shut out. I'm sure some will be able to make it work, but as much as I like the resort, I'm out for resale unless it is really a good deal and matches my use year.

 

[Sandisw]

I'm thinking Riviera resale if you don't book 11-7 months out you have a pretty good chance of getting shut out. I'm sure some will be able to make it work, but as much as I like the resort, I'm out for resale unless it is really a good deal and matches my use year.

That is true but it won’t take long for a resale owner to understand that. And, I don’t believe there will ever be a time...other than hard to get nights like NYE, where nothing is available to book..

I do think and agree that the impact on booking from resale owners won’t be seen for a good 10 years or so and that other than SV rooms, which are difficult even now, especially studios, owners who book during home resort time will see booking trends close to all the others.

I will even go as far to predict that most RIV resale owners will also be owners at other resorts and are buying for specific trips.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Wonder if this will be a trend

 

[sethschroeder]

Wonder if this will be a trend

What will be a trend?

 

[The Jackal]

Except you are not talking about things booking early the next few years we are talking about 10+ years down the road. Which based on estimates will have roughly 10% of all DVC points flip over and be removed from being able to book at RIV.

I am not expecting RIV to substantially turn over faster than any other resort in addition if value is depressed you might see more people keeping RIV opting to sell off their OKW/SSR contracts first.

Yes its something to be aware of but it's a guess I don't think is a guarantee and there is an argument to it being really no different than any other park attached resort. As outlined what you are losing is the SSR, OKW, AKV safety net.

Look at CCV studios, they are gone at 11 months for most of the year. The same is happening right now at RIV for Tower and Standard studios. This will probably continue when the resort sells out in 2, 3 or so years. I can’t imagine having RIV resale and try to book a studio less than 7 months out. Preferred and standard 1 bedrooms should be doable. Even worse cancel a reservation less than 30 days out and have the points go in holding. Just kiss them goodbye or get a 2 bedroom preferred for two days, for canceling a 7 night studio stay.

 

[sethschroeder]

Look at CCV studios, they are gone at 11 months for most of the year.

Look in my signature I have a whole thread I started about the CCV Studios and the issue the Cabins caused. There is no such "shortage" of normal Studio to 2BR rooms at Riviera.

The same is happening right now at RIV for Tower and Standard studios.

First only 25%-35% of Studios are Standard View and Tower Studios make up a tiny percentage of the resort as well. Do we point to Value/Club rooms being gone for AKV as a huge issue there?

I also don't think you can make any assumption based on:

• So few rooms being declared
• COVID creating excess 2021 vacation points as they just banked their points for this year
• New rooms get declared and availability opens up for months
• So many people wanting to "try Tower Studios"
• New resort so people are staying at Riviera and not moving (more people will move resorts in year 10 vs year 1)
• A single year of usage with multiple months of closures
• No "worse" than Standard View at BWV by example

As of December 13 @8PM CST:

• Tower Studios
  • Wide open July/August
  • On and off availability in October/November
  • Open for a 8am EST booking tomorrow morning
• Standard View Studio
  • July/August fairly open
  • Sparse in September
  • Shorter 4-5 slots in October
  • Between November 8+ only the current 11 month day is booked (being walked)
  • Open for a 8am EST booking tomorrow morning

I can’t imagine having RIV resale and try to book a studio less than 7 months out.

Again as outlined its going to be the same as any other resort likely. The main difference is you lose the AKV/OKW/SSR safety net. You might also need to settle for getting a 1BR at Riviera or plan based on not having the backup options.

Even worse cancel a reservation less than 30 days out and have the points go in holding.

Here is the thing many people never cancel a trip that far out and would never cancel a trip that far out. My original booking this year was for January with a April UY moved around a little bit but still going in January.

I would rent out my reservation or send the points to RCI at that point because if I ever had to cancel within 30 days I am not getting to Disney that year because something terrible happened.

Just kiss them goodbye or get a 2 bedroom preferred for two days, for canceling a 7 night studio stay.

OR think ahead, borrow don't bank points yearly, and when something comes up you bank your points in to the following year. Worst case you rent your points for MFs + $2-$6 extra or send them to RCI.

 

[Sandisw]

Look at CCV studios, they are gone at 11 months for most of the year. The same is happening right now at RIV for Tower and Standard studios. This will probably continue when the resort sells out in 2, 3 or so years. I can’t imagine having RIV resale and try to book a studio less than 7 months out. Preferred and standard 1 bedrooms should be doable. Even worse cancel a reservation less than 30 days out and have the points go in holding. Just kiss them goodbye or get a 2 bedroom preferred for two days, for canceling a 7 night studio stay.

The big piece is that anyone who buys it knows it’s restricted so if they don’t plan ahead, they will run into issues,

Also, I think SV studios and tower studios would be hard to get even if those restrictions weren’t there, due to the point charts and as an owner, if I want them, I need to book right at 11 months.

It definitely is a more restricted product so last minute cancelations will be tough. No question, But, for anyone who wants it and willing to accept it, it will be had for a nice amount.

 

[sethschroeder]

last minute cancelations will be tough.

Which I say goes back to an owner of Riviera Resale simply renting out that reservation. Example a Studio Preferred View in October 2022 (with new higher point charts) if renting for $10/point would be $234/night vs the rack rate of around $650/night (even with 30% off its still $455/night).

Also if Riviera is "so hard to get" then Disney in the end would not be offering great discounts on the hotel side anyways since they would have so few rooms in the DVC Only Resort and unlike BCV/VGF/BWV there is no hotel side that cash guests initially opt for if they like that specific resort as a whole.

 

[The Jackal]

Look in my signature I have a whole thread I started about the CCV Studios and the issue the Cabins caused. There is no such "shortage" of normal Studio to 2BR rooms at Riviera.



First only 25%-35% of Studios are Standard View and Tower Studios make up a tiny percentage of the resort as well. Do we point to Value/Club rooms being gone for AKV as a huge issue there?

I also don't think you can make any assumption based on:

• So few rooms being declared
• COVID creating excess 2021 vacation points as they just banked their points for this year
• New rooms get declared and availability opens up for months
• So many people wanting to "try Tower Studios"
• New resort so people are staying at Riviera and not moving (more people will move resorts in year 10 vs year 1)
• A single year of usage with multiple months of closures
• No "worse" than Standard View at BWV by example

As of December 13 @8PM CST:

• Tower Studios
  • Wide open July/August
  • On and off availability in October/November
  • Open for a 8am EST booking tomorrow morning
• Standard View Studio
  • July/August fairly open
  • Sparse in September
  • Shorter 4-5 slots in October
  • Between November 8+ only the current 11 month day is booked (being walked)
  • Open for a 8am EST booking tomorrow morning

Again as outlined its going to be the same as any other resort likely. The main difference is you lose the AKV/OKW/SSR safety net. You might also need to settle for getting a 1BR at Riviera or plan based on not having the backup options.



Here is the thing many people never cancel a trip that far out and would never cancel a trip that far out. My original booking this year was for January with a April UY moved around a little bit but still going in January.

I would rent out my reservation or send the points to RCI at that point because if I ever had to cancel within 30 days I am not getting to Disney that year because something terrible happened.



OR think ahead, borrow don't bank points yearly, and when something comes up you bank your points in to the following year. Worst case you rent your points for MFs + $2-$6 extra or send them to RCI.

July/August is wide open because not many want to go in the 100 degree heat with 100% humidity and all the rain. This is a well know DVC pattern. RCI is an awful use of points. Right now there are a ton of points out there to rent. People have stated that they have put them out there and no bites. Hopefully this will change when things get better, but it could take a while. Renting also depends on deals that Disney offers off rooms.

 

[sethschroeder]

July/August is wide open because not many want to go in the 100 degree heat with 100% humidity and all the rain. This is a well know DVC pattern.

Thats fine but that is roughly 17% of the points for the year sitting in those two months start in 2022.

RCI is an awful use of points.

Thats fine as outlined its one of a variety of ways to deal with your points.

Right now there are a ton of points out there to rent. People have stated that they have put them out there and no bites.

Sorry but they are overpricing their reservations and COVID is going on right now. Things will return to a more normal situation as people actually want to go to WDW. Right now you have a bunch of individuals not wanting to go and renting their points out that during normal times would never do such.

I will also point to the observation of $10/point below lower than most of the rental ads I come across that are out there. Thing is even with COVID still going on it just opens up more options for you personally to travel or to find a rental specific to the person.

Long term as well more and more rental ads will say "can rent anywhere but Riviera". So there will be times you are not competing with other low priced rentals. Last second someone at the other resorts (BWV,VGF,BLT,ect) they will just cancel their reservation so you are going to be left with room reservations at Riviera for $10/point or a new rental at SSR/OKW/AKV for $12/point as an example.

Renting also depends on deals that Disney offers off rooms.

You saw the math right? $234 vs $650 rack rate? That would be a 64% discount on a room to get to the same pricing. That type of discount is not happening at Riviera on the cash side especially after they sell out and Disney has so few rooms. Again when we are talking about weeks out someone is going to take that deal and cancel their direct room. That basically is inline with Value rooms without a discount or a good discount on certain Moderate rooms.

I even bet in 4 or 5 years you will see on the hotel side threads "tips" about checking on Riviera last minute to see if you can upgrade "for free" by getting a rental reservation. Since its all last minute the risk to the renter is less as well.

 

[Sandisw]

July/August is wide open because not many want to go in the 100 degree heat with 100% humidity and all the rain. This is a well know DVC pattern. RCI is an awful use of points. Right now there are a ton of points out there to rent. People have stated that they have put them out there and no bites. Hopefully this will change when things get better, but it could take a while. Renting also depends on deals that Disney offers off rooms.

I agree. RIV resale is not for everyone. And buyers need to understand that,

But, there are plenty of us who love the resort, own other points, and for the right price, will buy to use there, restrictions and all.

So, the prices people are paying for it...much higher than I thought they would...indicate people feel it will be worth needing to book 11 months out, maybe travel in summer if booking less than 7 months out, and even being forced to put things into RCI when canceling last minute.

Great thing about DVC...product for us all!

 

[havoc315]

That is true but it won’t take long for a resale owner to understand that. And, I don’t believe there will ever be a time...other than hard to get nights like NYE, where nothing is available to book..

I do think and agree that the impact on booking from resale owners won’t be seen for a good 10 years or so and that other than SV rooms, which are difficult even now, especially studios, owners who book during home resort time will see booking trends close to all the others.

I will even go as far to predict that most RIV resale owners will also be owners at other resorts and are buying for specific trips.

1. Resale owners may be restricted only to Riviera. But resale owners of non-Riv resorts are blocked out of Riviera... to some extent, these two things will balance out. Yes, rooms might go faster during the 7-11 month period. But the remains rooms may book slower in the 0-7 month period, as there are fewer people trading in past the 7 month mark.
2. If you're looking beyond 10 years... especially as you get closer to 20, this really becomes irrelevant. These resale restrictions will be at every new resort. In fact, I can see re-sale values of Riviera really shooting up in the years 2030-2040 --- As Riviera could potentially be the only Epcot/DHS area resort worth buying. It's 2035... are you going to buy a re-sale contract for Boardwalk or Beach Club with only 7 years left, or a contract at Riviera with another 35 years? (And then when new BWV/BCV contracts start getting sold in 2042 or later, they will have the same restrictions as Riviera).
3. I doubt "most" Riviera resale owners will also own at other resorts but comes down to: What percentage of resale owners own multiple resorts, in general? I suspect the number of multi-resort owners are over-represented on this forum.

But in general, as we move forward, the resale restrictions on Riviera will become less and less important. Right now, as things stand today, you can buy resale points and you still get access to 14 out of the 15 DVC resorts, you only get locked out of 1 resort, and you still can book 4 WDW resorts that are under 10 years old. But what happens when resale points are limits the owner to 14 out of 18 resorts, including the 4 newest? And then further in the future, what happens when resale points limits you to 9 out of 20 resorts, and only the 9 oldest?
Disney's strategy is to reduce the entire re-sale market, push people towards direct purchasing. And this will likely be successful. But for those that still in the resale market, the restrictions won't really impact the value of Riviera more than anyplace else.

So in the long term, the re-sale restrictions will impact the entire resale market -- but it won't hurt Riviera more than anyplace else.

 

[sethschroeder]

It's 2035... are you going to buy a re-sale contract for Boardwalk or Beach Club with only 7 years left, or a contract at Riviera with another 35 years?

Also I think this even impacts those who otherwise would have bought elsewhere in 2035 as well. They now have a ticking clock until they can only stay in a park adjacent resort at MK as Epcot/HS disappear.

People talk about how you can get a 1BR at BWV/BCV or you possibly can waitlist and have luck. If its a strict "no" will that change people's minds and possibly start splitting their points when they originally would not have (or go direct)?


Also you got me thinking about this again:
What about the MK resorts in 20 years time for the resale owner that doesn't own there? I brought this up before but in 2042 you are going from 42% of points being "park attached" to 28% of rooms being "park attached". That is a significant reduction in how many rooms are available when you consider SSR/OKW will go from 44% of the rooms to 56% of the rooms available to book.

You are losing a significant percentage of bookable rooms in the most sought after location within DVC (Epcot/MK area).

For total rooms just at WDW:
4679 total rooms in the resorts without restrictions
25% at MK
17% at Epcot
13% at AK
44% at SSR/OKW

In 2042:
20% of rooms will expire (all near MK/Epcot)
28% of rooms by MK
0% of rooms by Epcot
16% of rooms by AK
56% of rooms at SSR/OKW
14% loss of rooms by MK/Epcot (SSR/OKW rooms increase by 27% of total pool of rooms)


There are currently 25,485,757 points in resorts next to MK or EPCOT without resale restrictions:
39% of points pool that are next to MK/EPCOT will expire
100% of points pool that are next to EPCOT will expire in 2042
17% of points pool that are next to MK will expire in 2042

Currently there are 70,230,462 points in resorts without resale restrictions:
25% of points are next to MK
11% of points are next to Epcot
11% of points are next to AK
31% of points are OKW/SSR

In 2042 there will be 57,367,132 points left in resorts without resale restrictions:
23% of points will be next to MK
0% of points will be next to Epcot
13% of points will be next to AK
38% of points will be OKW/SSR
13% loss of points by MK/EPCOT

Yes we are talking about in 20 years but this will be a more central thought when we hit 2030-2035 as people start talking more about the Epcot expiration as part of the resale discussion.

 

[havoc315]

Also I think this even impacts those who otherwise would have bought elsewhere in 2035 as well. They now have a ticking clock until they can only stay in a park adjacent resort at MK as Epcot/HS disappear.

People talk about how you can get a 1BR at BWV/BCV or you possibly can waitlist and have luck. If its a strict "no" will that change people's minds and possibly start splitting their points when they originally would not have (or go direct)?


Also you got me thinking about this again:
What about the MK resorts in 20 years time for the resale owner that doesn't own there? I brought this up before but in 2042 you are going from 42% of points being "park attached" to 28% of rooms being "park attached". That is a significant reduction in how many rooms are available when you consider SSR/OKW will go from 44% of the rooms to 56% of the rooms available to book.

Meanwhile, there will be evermore rooms/points that can only be booked by direct owners. Likely 1-2 more DVC resorts at WDW by 2042, and several DVC resorts outside of WDW by then.

Yes we are talking about in 20 years but this will be a more central thought when we hit 2030-2035 as people start talking more about the Epcot expiration as part of the resale discussion.

Not a crazy conversation. The overwhelming majority of Riviera buyers will be expecting to keep their purchase for at least 10 years... and by then, we will be starting to feel the 2042 cliff impact.
Think about that cliff impact in 2031 with only 11 years left on so many of those resorts. Huge difference between 22 years and 11 years..
If you're a young family -- 30ish adults, young children -- You may look at a 22 year contract as enough for your "lifetime." Enough to keep going to Disney until your kids are married and starting their own family! Or if you're adults in your 40's with teens, you might see 22 years as enough time to keep going to Disney through your retirement and even maybe a few trips with grandkids.
On the other hand, an 11 year contract? Means if you finance over 10 years, your entire contract expire just as you finish the payments.

 

[RebelScum]

1. Resale owners may be restricted only to Riviera. But resale owners of non-Riv resorts are blocked out of Riviera... to some extent, these two things will balance out. Yes, rooms might go faster during the 7-11 month period. But the remains rooms may book slower in the 0-7 month period, as there are fewer people trading in past the 7 month mark.
2. If you're looking beyond 10 years... especially as you get closer to 20, this really becomes irrelevant. These resale restrictions will be at every new resort. In fact, I can see re-sale values of Riviera really shooting up in the years 2030-2040 --- As Riviera could potentially be the only Epcot/DHS area resort worth buying. It's 2035... are you going to buy a re-sale contract for Boardwalk or Beach Club with only 7 years left, or a contract at Riviera with another 35 years? (And then when new BWV/BCV contracts start getting sold in 2042 or later, they will have the same restrictions as Riviera).
3. I doubt "most" Riviera resale owners will also own at other resorts but comes down to: What percentage of resale owners own multiple resorts, in general? I suspect the number of multi-resort owners are over-represented on this forum.

But in general, as we move forward, the resale restrictions on Riviera will become less and less important. Right now, as things stand today, you can buy resale points and you still get access to 14 out of the 15 DVC resorts, you only get locked out of 1 resort, and you still can book 4 WDW resorts that are under 10 years old. But what happens when resale points are limits the owner to 14 out of 18 resorts, including the 4 newest? And then further in the future, what happens when resale points limits you to 9 out of 20 resorts, and only the 9 oldest?
Disney's strategy is to reduce the entire re-sale market, push people towards direct purchasing. And this will likely be successful. But for those that still in the resale market, the restrictions won't really impact the value of Riviera more than anyplace else.

So in the long term, the re-sale restrictions will impact the entire resale market -- but it won't hurt Riviera more than anyplace else.

I think your analysis is spot on!

 

[AvidDisReader]

Meanwhile, there will be evermore rooms/points that can only be booked by direct owners. Likely 1-2 more DVC resorts at WDW by 2042, and several DVC resorts outside of WDW by then.



Not a crazy conversation. The overwhelming majority of Riviera buyers will be expecting to keep their purchase for at least 10 years... and by then, we will be starting to feel the 2042 cliff impact.
Think about that cliff impact in 2031 with only 11 years left on so many of those resorts. Huge difference between 22 years and 11 years..
If you're a young family -- 30ish adults, young children -- You may look at a 22 year contract as enough for your "lifetime." Enough to keep going to Disney until your kids are married and starting their own family! Or if you're adults in your 40's with teens, you might see 22 years as enough time to keep going to Disney through your retirement and even maybe a few trips with grandkids.
On the other hand, an 11 year contract? Means if you finance over 10 years, your entire contract expire just as you finish the payments.

Wow, the thought process is very good. If you are thinking in the terms stated above maybe it is best you just bite the bullet and buy direct. Keep the points as long as it suits your lifestyle and when Disney trips are no longer a part of the plan, you can still sell them resale--maybe for a little loss but think of all the enjoyment received while they were owned. Lots of ways to approach the expense of DVC. Everyone is different with their own wants, needs, and expectations. The only thing I advise is to NEVER consider the purchase of DVC as an investment, it is a Time Share and should be treated as a Time Share.