Attendance Down, Revenue Up

[sheetz]

I have this general feeling that WDW has been riding the coattails of the global economic bubble and if/when we have another financial crisis WDW will be taking it on the chin.

 

[rteetz]

If Knott's numbers are off by that much I can easily see Disney's numbers off by millions. If, as insiders claim, TDL is really the most visited theme park in the world, then those numbers are off by quite a lot.

Well, I know MK numbers include Halloween and Christmas party tickets which is something that Tokyo doesn't have. Insiders claim that's why MK is above TDL in the estimates.

 

[mom2rtk]

Well, I know MK numbers include Halloween and Christmas party tickets which is something that Tokyo doesn't have. Insiders claim that's why MK is above TDL in the estimates.

I didn't realize that and it does make sense. DLR has fewer Halloween parties and no Christmas party at all.

 

[sheetz]

I don't think there are enough parties at MK to account for a 2 million difference over TDL, but i could be wrong. Insiders also claim DCA actually has greater attendance than DHS and DAK, but that's another kettle of fish.

It'll be interesting to see the TEA numbers after SWL opens at DL. Logically, there's no reason why DL shouldn't catapult to #1.

 

[Josh Hendy]

If Knott's numbers are off by that much I can easily see Disney's numbers off by millions. If, as insiders claim, TDL is really the most visited theme park in the world, then those numbers are off by quite a lot.

The TEA numbers are provided by the theme park companies themselves. Since the numbers are unofficial and unaudited, there is opportunity and motivation for lying or fudging. For example it is said that Disney will only provide numbers after being shown its competitors' numbers first. There is no breakdown or explanation of how park hopping, partial day, annual pass or special event numbers are handled.

So I think that some skepticism is justified.

 

[sheetz]

The TEA numbers are provided by the theme park companies themselves. Since the numbers are unofficial and unaudited, there is opportunity and motivation for lying or fudging. For example it is said that Disney will only provide numbers after being shown its competitors' numbers first. There is no breakdown or explanation of how park hopping, partial day, annual pass or special event numbers are handled.

So I think that some skepticism is justified.

http://www.teaconnect.org/images/files/TEA_103_49736_150603.pdf
I looked at the last TEA report and in the last section they describe their methodology. Although some of their figures are directly from the companies, others are estimated thru other sources. Supposedly these results are first sent to the companies for feedback before public release but I can't think of any real incentive for most companies to comment unless there's something they truly don't like about the report.

 

[rteetz]

http://www.teaconnect.org/images/files/TEA_103_49736_150603.pdf
I looked at the last TEA report and in the last section they describe their methodology. Although some of their figures are directly from the companies, others are estimated thru other sources. Supposedly these results are first sent to the companies for feedback before public release but I can't think of any real incentive for most companies to comment unless there's something they truly don't like about the report.

I've heard things about Disney giving the TEA numbers that aren't necessarily correct.

 

[Josh Hendy]

http://www.teaconnect.org/images/files/TEA_103_49736_150603.pdf
I looked at the last TEA report and in the last section they describe their methodology. Although some of their figures are directly from the companies, others are estimated thru other sources. Supposedly these results are first sent to the companies for feedback before public release but I can't think of any real incentive for most companies to comment unless there's something they truly don't like about the report.

I think that the "other sources" are things like airline, hotel and car rental bookings which are probably aggregated for the entire region, not broken down by resort chain let alone theme park.

It's hard to see how TEA would have any other source for individual park numbers except to ask the owners themselves. I assume that TEA doesn't pay people to monitor parking lots every day or analyze daily satellite images.

It's a ticklish problem. Do you irritate the 400lb gorilla in the industry by questioning their numbers or asking exactly how they count hoppers and special events? Or whether they count unused days on passes as "visits"? By say, arbitrarily allocating them to their dud theme parks with few attractions and plenty of construction walls.

Plenty of opportunity, motivation and even some evidence (or at least inferences) for fudging. Not that it's the end of the world ... just something for uber-fans to worry about ...

 

[sheetz]

Yes, I can see how Disney would want to goose the numbers for certain WDW parks to maintain a comfortable lead over USF and IOA. Also MK to ensure it keeps #1 ranking.

 

[jade1]

Nope...overshot the runway again.

Nice, will be sure to let them down gently, just how low quality they are.

 

[rteetz]

Nice, will be sure to let them down gently, just how low quality they are.

I get your point but not all Disney characters are like that. Not every gaston is like that either.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I get your point but not all Disney characters are like that. Not every gaston is like that either.

I don't get the argument at all...

It's attempting to use characters as Martyrs to shield the decisions of conglomerate that employs them...

It's an 8th grade attempt at misdirection. So no more consideration is warranted.

 

[Eoghann]

While these public declarations have to be truthful there are a lot of games that can be played with the wording.

So attendance is flat across US parks, but of course that can mask all sorts of variations. And when we're talking a modest reduction in attendance are we doing a quarter on quarter comparison or same quarter previous year?

I'd say even a flattening of the numbers is pretty significant given the steady growth Disney has seen in park attendance for the last decade. I'd like to think it was people waking up about the prices, but more likely it's international economics impacting on people's spending.

 

[Thumper1066]

No doubt. Disney doesn't want to see attendance decrease because that's even more revenue they could've had.

Again, they are justifying the outcome to CTA. Just like when you trip and then say, I meant to do that. Whose idea was it to open a resort in Shanghai anyway?

 

[Thumper1066]

I would say it was TSMM. That is a well engineered Disney-worthy attraction. Before that, Everest (when the Yeti worked, but we know how that story ended). And before that, Tower of Terror. That's three things in almost 20 years.

TSMM?

 

[Thumper1066]

If Disney is so crowded that they are trying to keep crowds down why did I get my third pin code since December today? I've never had so many so quickly.

I agree with the comments that the constant cutting back is the biggest problem. It's hard to accept paying more when they seem so determined to cut wherever they can at the same time.

And I agree with you. I have never seen so many price cuts for summer. Not just at Disney, but Orlando in general. A few weeks back we extended our June vacation three more days and we booked all star rooms at $79 on the Disney site. Really $79 in summer? 3 star properties with economy prices pop up all over my pages. I think the excuse "we want to reduce crowds" is really an attempt to keep people from cancelling their plans altogether. The point in our extending was so we could ride Soarin, visit Disney Springs multiple times, do the Frozen thing in Epcot, hopefully see the Star Wars Fireworks. We added 2 days to our tickets at $42 and will spend 1 day doing nothing. ( Something I have never done.) We will be skipping next year all together, and maybe the next. I plan on waiting for at least 2 of the three new lands to be complete before we will be handing anymore to the Mouse. If more did this and MK was a ghost town in 2017 what excuse would they make then? I hope Shanghai was worth it Igor.

 

[Thumper1066]

Did the report specify where attendance was down?

I imagine attendance at DLP has took a big drop this year with the terror attacks, and the lack of anything new in the parks, and the huge amount of ride closures for refurbs.

And they don't want to say, "because of terrorist activity DLP has seen a drop in guests." That would make more people stay home. You couldn't pay me to go to Shanghai or Hong Kong and now probably not DLP as well.

 

[Thumper1066]

That's on Eisner and continues with CMB...

But in order to be "poached"...there has to be conditions for it to happen. And that is Disneys fault.

The reality that most casual observers or non former employee don't get is this: Disney staff is low paid for the money they pull in as a unit. They've had it that way and they want to exploit it more.

Very much at parks. For every 1 server a chef mickeys that makes $85,000 pouring juice - there are dozens of managers who bust tail making $30,000...or thousands of college program ("interns" that are really just indentured servants) that are subsidized by the federal government down to almost nothing for Disney due to "education"' and "jobs" programs.

Same with creative...they want more at lower or stagnant wages. That used to be offset by the name and benefits - but those were taken down to American bloodsucker levels long ago and the name is just a name anymore.

They keep increasing prices and they'll blame "costs"...but that's a complete lie. It's not going to wages - it's being drained to the California teachers pension funds hedge managers...

...and that's why Iger has got to go. It's time, Skippy.

What I see the problem is that the balance is off. Any large corporation needs dreamers and bean counters. Some to come up with the ideas, some to bring those dreams into reality, and somebody that has at least one and a half feet in reality. Disney is off balance. Walt had Roy. Without Roy Disney, Walt would not have ever been able to accomplish many of his dreams. If Roy didn't secretly have a creative side, he wouldn't have been the man Walt needed. As great as Joe Rhodee is he could not run the company, he is all dream. Igor is too much a business man and too little of a dreamer.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I have this general feeling that WDW has been riding the coattails of the global economic bubble and if/when we have another financial crisis WDW will be taking it on the chin.

It's not even a question...that is EXACTLY what it has been doing.

The problem is with wreckless price increases, they will be in a really bad way to keep the ship Afloat during the next decline.

 

[Nancyg56]

And they don't want to say, "because of terrorist activity DLP has seen a drop in guests." That would make more people stay home. You couldn't pay me to go to Shanghai or Hong Kong and now probably not DLP as well.

Exactly, I would not step foot into Shanghai, and would avoid DLP and Hong Kong as well.