Cheapest DVC property per point? Look at annual fees

[Dean]

I don't really believe this. Any corporate world firings I've seen had payoffs for confidentiality and no one really knew the correct reason for the person being dismissed, other than high up management, and they certainly wouldn't share the information with the masses.

I think Crisi was speaking to the fact that MF are often low during the sales process and rise afterwards. Some have speculated DVC has done this purposefully at times, I think there's basis for that opinion esp where BLT is concerned but none of us know for sure. DVC has also subsidized MF at times early on and I'm thinking they did at BLT as well IIRC. Regardless BLT has risen faster than the DVC average and I expect it will continue to do so and VGF will do the same.

 

[crisi]

I don't really believe this. Any corporate world firings I've seen had payoffs for confidentiality and no one really knew the correct reason for the person being dismissed, other than high up management, and they certainly wouldn't share the information with the masses.

Its easy enough to run the numbers and see for yourself. The sales years tend to start low (not always), then there is a bump where there are higher than average increases, then they level out again.

 

[dsnydaddy]

hhmm... after staring at this, i thought it might be more useful/clarifying but I think it isn't. If the property costs more per point it isn't good to trade from them, if it costs less per point, it's probably a good idea to trade from them but there's little correlation between that and popularity I think.

Anyway, another attempt of mine to try to make cost a little more transparent. Maybe this last one wasn't to helpful.

I like the graph Josh. It puts into perspective what we have been discussing here all along. There are a lot of factors that go into deciding what resort to buy into. He only one not covered here is the personal preference one and there's no way to put that to numbers otherwise I'd have done that as well.

 

[::danielle::]

Very cool! Just out of curiosity, would you mind sharing how it helped you decide? Thanks
josh

I apologize for taking so long to reply. Here's how your information helped me. I was torn between selecting 3 resorts (BLT, VWL, and BCV). I was leaning towards BLT but the extra upfront cost made me hesitate. It was the list below (as well as they color coded chart) that helped me to realize that BLT was maybe not such a bad deal after all. It's helpful that we are likely to stay in a 1 bedroom during the dream season so these listings do accurately reflect our intents.

Of course, now my problem is waiting for the BLT resale market to cool off.

Ranking #4: Cost for a 1 week stay in a 1BR own resort (Total cost per point x points for 1 week on point chart during dream season-mid level room)

1. SSR $1550
2. OKW $1570
3. AKV $1900
4. BLT $1925
5. HH $1938
6. Vero $2176
7. VWL $2267
8. BWV $2280
9. Cal $2290
10. BCV $2354
11. Aulani $2792
12. Flor $3063

 

[Tardisblue]

Great thread guys. My wife and I are in the process of considering purchasing DVC within the next 18 months or so and I can't make the numbers work. This breakdown gives me a lot to consider and I'll be watching this thread for the next few months to a year and take everything into consideration before we make any decision on whether or not to buy. Our issue is we like staying at the moderates, specifically POFQ, but even that's out of our budget this year. We're going to stay offsite for our trip in June as a result. I keep getting hung on the fact that if I may end up paying as much or more in MF each year with DVC than it would cost for me stay for a week at POFQ or an offsite townhouse. I'm still on the fence at this point.

 

[skier_pete]

I keep getting hung on the fact that if I may end up paying as much or more in MF each year with DVC than it would cost for me stay for a week at POFQ or an offsite townhouse. I'm still on the fence at this point.

I get being unsure of DVC when staying at Moderates, we were there. But I am not sure I get your hangup on that the MF would be more expensive.

I pay $1008 this year for my 160 points at AKV, ($6.30 per point) the highest MF property on the list.

Let's compare a week in October (not Columbus day). POFQ is $204 weekday, $226 weekend. Even giving you 25 % off rack rate - the best discount for moderates, but including 12.5 % tax, that's $1242 for 7 nights. That same week at AKV in a Savannah View Deluxe studio is 116 points. At $6.30 per point, that's $731. If I wanted to save more money - Old Key West would be 78 points for 7 nights - or $491.

Now of course, I'm not including the buy-in, but I'm making the comparison that you mentioned - Maintenance fees vs POFQ. I could've gone even lower and looked at the cheapest DVC, which is buying at SSR and staying at OKW. A week would be $403 for the maintenance fees versus $1242 at POFQ.

 

[nalajms]

Great thread guys. My wife and I are in the process of considering purchasing DVC within the next 18 months or so and I can't make the numbers work.

Your numbers will never work in DVC's favor. The only time it works is if you only want to stay at the deluxe hotels onsite. It will always be cheaper to stay offsite in a rented house/condo.

POFQ is $204 weekday, $226 weekend.

I was able to book POFQ for late Oct 2014 for under $150 per night (tax included). You have to watch for Orbitz sales combined with Disney room sales.

Regardless, there's no point in Tardisblue buying in if they prefer POFQ.

 

[Dean]

Great thread guys. My wife and I are in the process of considering purchasing DVC within the next 18 months or so and I can't make the numbers work. This breakdown gives me a lot to consider and I'll be watching this thread for the next few months to a year and take everything into consideration before we make any decision on whether or not to buy. Our issue is we like staying at the moderates, specifically POFQ, but even that's out of our budget this year. We're going to stay offsite for our trip in June as a result. I keep getting hung on the fact that if I may end up paying as much or more in MF each year with DVC than it would cost for me stay for a week at POFQ or an offsite townhouse. I'm still on the fence at this point.

I think if you compare like to like with a studio at say OKW or SSR points and buying resale at SSR to a moderate, even considering likely discounts, you'll at least break even with DVC compared to cash. And you'll have much more than the standard moderate room excluding the sleep 5 rooms at PO. But it won't save you much long term and will add aggravation and risk. Personally I think it adds enough value over the moderates but you'll have to decide how it fits for you. If you're comfortable staying off property you might be able to get a larger unit for around the same price but likely won't save anything there either by buying a non DVC timeshare. OF course one can rent DVC for a little more than owning and non DVC timeshares/Condo's for even less.

 

[skier_pete]

Your numbers will never work in DVC's favor. The only time it works is if you only want to stay at the deluxe hotels onsite. It will always be cheaper to stay offsite in a rented house/condo.

I agree with this. IN fact, if you are happy with off-site, a much smarter timeshare buy would be to look into the Wyndam Bonnet Creek. You are technically off-site but you are on Disney Property, and the savings versus DVC in up front costs is significant and you can get one or two bedroom units for what you would pay maintenance fees on a studio.

I was able to book POFQ for late Oct 2014 for under $150 per night (tax included). You have to watch for Orbitz sales combined with Disney room sales.

My intention was to compare two typical costs. If I knew I could reliably stay at POFQ for $150 a night including tax, I probably wouldn't buy DVC either.

 

[crisi]

Your numbers will never work in DVC's favor. The only time it works is if you only want to stay at the deluxe hotels onsite. It will always be cheaper to stay offsite in a rented house/condo.


I was able to book POFQ for late Oct 2014 for under $150 per night (tax included). You have to watch for Orbitz sales combined with Disney room sales.

Regardless, there's no point in Tardisblue buying in if they prefer POFQ.

Combine Orbitz sales with eBates rebates and - if you are flexible enough to follow sales - you can get a heckofa deal.

DVC is NEVER good if your budget is tight, its a huge commitment and a lot of risk if your budget is tight - one cancelled trip and a set of lost points that can't be banked and can't be used and your break even point can move by years. DVC is best when "if you end up saving some money, that would be cool - but not necessary."

 

[Tardisblue]

DVC is NEVER good if your budget is tight, its a huge commitment and a lot of risk if your budget is tight - one cancelled trip and a set of lost points that can't be banked and can't be used and your break even point can move by years. DVC is best when "if you end up saving some money, that would be cool - but not necessary."

That's where we are at this year. In fact, we're staying offsite in a 3 BR townhouse for less than half the cost of what it would be to stay at POFQ during the same time period in June. We're definitely interested in DVC, most likely in 2017. That should give me plenty of time to massage the numbers and figure out a buy-in price point and home resort.

 

[Joshuy]

I apologize for taking so long to reply. Here's how your information helped me. I was torn between selecting 3 resorts (BLT, VWL, and BCV). I was leaning towards BLT but the extra upfront cost made me hesitate. It was the list below (as well as they color coded chart) that helped me to realize that BLT was maybe not such a bad deal after all. It's helpful that we are likely to stay in a 1 bedroom during the dream season so these listings do accurately reflect our intents.

Of course, now my problem is waiting for the BLT resale market to cool off.

Interesting! Thanks for replying. I think the challenge is that people make these decisions from a variety of priorities. I like thinking about how to make information accessible to fit a variety of values.

For Tardisblue, I can imagine that if staying off site is great or in a moderate, then these numbers clearly do not take that into account. This is simply a dvc vs dvc analysis. Whether to buy DVC is a completely different problem I think.

 

[suebeelin]

Old thread- prices have changed a bit and poly has been added, but still relevant.

 

[TechRavingMad]

This is all fantastic information, thank you all for sharing it.

It's really brought our next buying decision back to "what do we want" and having it "okay" in pricing. Our family loves HS, and we see that park (and Epcot) as the biggest future areas for Disney. The Magic Kingdom has kinda locked themselves into the fantasy world which is not where Disney is going right now I think for the next 10-20 years Disney will be expanding HS (Marvel, Pixar), Epcot (Marvel, Star Wars) and maybe AK (Avatar, Pete's Dragon, Tarzan) because that's where their movies are going. I think this will become even more apparent whenever they announce the new name for Hollywood Studios. I just think to myself "What's next for Disney?" and I just don't see them making huge expansions at MK. That makes BWV's a huge draw for us, and where we are actively looking to purchase.

The only down side to this is by the time they do get HS fully expanded BWV will only have 23 years (max) left on it's contract.

Here's hoping the next DVC resort is not at Caribbean Beach and instead somewhere between HS and AK (like near Blizzard Beach).

 

[Zipears Fan]

Old post. Any chance anyone wants to run updated math like the OP, for 2018 pricing to include 2018 annual dues?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Old post. Any chance anyone wants to run updated math like the OP, for 2018 pricing to include 2018 annual dues?

If you Google it is out there.

 

[skier_pete]

Old post. Any chance anyone wants to run updated math like the OP, for 2018 pricing to include 2018 annual dues?

Not sure if I'll be allowed to post the link - but THIS WEBSITE does a nice job of doing this calculation and updating it at least twice a year - factoring both resale buy-in cost, years remaining on the contract, and current annual dues.

 

[Dean]

Not sure if I'll be allowed to post the link - but THIS WEBSITE does a nice job of doing this calculation and updating it at least twice a year - factoring both resale buy-in cost, years remaining on the contract, and current annual dues.

It ignores the TVM/Opportunity costs which will alter the calculations somewhat. A dollar in 30, 40 or 50 years is not the same as a dollar today. This will somewhat raise the lower cost items and somewhat lower the higher cost ones. It won't make a big difference in rank but what it should do is to give a better understanding of the true longterm cost of a given home resort. I personally use a return of investment over 10 years, one could do the same calculations for this method. Remember a timeshare is a high risk long term investment.

 

[skier_pete]

It ignores the TVM/Opportunity costs which will alter the calculations somewhat. A dollar in 30, 40 or 50 years is not the same as a dollar today. This will somewhat raise the lower cost items and somewhat lower the higher cost ones. It won't make a big difference in rank but what it should do is to give a better understanding of the true longterm cost of a given home resort. I personally use a return of investment over 10 years, one could do the same calculations for this method. Remember a timeshare is a high risk long term investment.

Well, it also doesn't account for shifts in pricing and also shifts in MF. (AKV was much higher than most locations just a few years ago, but many resorts have caught up in the last two years.) It really only tells you the value right NOW.

 

[dsnydaddy]

Not sure if I'll be allowed to post the link - but THIS WEBSITE does a nice job of doing this calculation and updating it at least twice a year - factoring both resale buy-in cost, years remaining on the contract, and current annual dues.

I’ve seen their rankings, for the most part they are spot on. It’s roughly the same calculation that I did to decide which was the best resort for us. One thing that I would like to point out that this chart doe not take into account is the point cost per week difference. It’s a tough comparison to make because you have to allow for a bunch of factors. SSR and BLT still do well in that matchup but AKL does very well. So the positions change slightly.